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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Stewart, It sure does. I would expect the S&P 500 to test the level seen around 26th December 2018 (double bottom) at the very least. If things start turning ugly around the major countries in the world such as US, China, UK (Brexit) then we could see a move further downwards but this is just assumption based from me. The price action will test my assumptions and tell me if I am right or wrong. The risk on shorting the Dow and S&P is that any positive news will be pounced upon by the buyers creating large rallies which will increase the size and sharpness of the volatility and make trading conditions extremely difficult. I am tempted to day trade any move downwards in the S&P 500 thus taking smaller profits daily and avoiding the overnight charges. It is just a thought but one I am seriously considering.
  2. I think the price action of Bonds can be quite telling in such times of uncertainty.
  3. This could potentially see a sell off in equity markets. I am not sure if what we witnessed recently was just a monster relief rally or if there is indeed some substance behind the recent rally. I guess we are about to find out in the coming days and weeks.
  4. @Caseynotes, yes you are right. It seems the Gold market is being driven by news and the price is reacting.
  5. Right now there is just as much chance that Gold resumes it next move upwards and hits $1300 as there is that it continues its move downwards and goes below $1270 level. No one knows though the longer term trend since August 2018 is still upwards for now. It seems that news released in the media (such as growth updates on certain countries like US, China, etc.) along with sentiment will play a part in Gold's next move. If indices continue moving upwards then I feel that Gold could see a decline and of course the US Dollar will play a significant role in Gold's price action.
  6. @dmedin, At the moment any short on Gold would be a short term trade as for me there is no trend reversal confirmation so for longer term traders it would be extremely tricky to go short on Gold right now especially whilst it is above the $1280 level.
  7. @cryptotrader, If you look at the price action along with other indicators such as volume, momentum, moving averages, etc. then it gives us an idea (that is all it is) of what may happen going forwards. So for example the link between rising / falling volume on any price moves upwards / downwards, etc. I think the better traders will create their own trades of the week. If one has to rely on IG's trades of the week then to me it infers that they are not putting in the ground work themselves to identify potential trading opportunities. Yes on occasions I accept IG may highlight a trade that one may not have considered and that is fine but I think there are more than enough trading opportunities out there in the major asset classes of equities, FX and commodities.
  8. @Caseynotes, Yes it does hence I never pay much attention to any IG trades of the week. Price action does not lie and by following it, gives a better chance of understanding what any future direction may be.
  9. @Caseynotes, Gold could still have another go at breaking that. Whether it will or not I don't know but I am sure we will find out over the course of this week.
  10. For me the trend up is still upwards and what we are witnesses is a mere correction. However if the price was to go below its 50 day moving average then I think we could see a trend change. The $1261.00 level will be crucial. If this holds and Gold stays above it then we could see another move upwards. If this price does not hold then I do fear we may witness longs closing, more shorts opening and stop losses being triggered causing a further drop to the price of Gold and potentially eliminating recent gains for those who are left holding based on 'market noise', 'emotions', 'fundamentals', etc.
  11. The price action is hinting / suggesting at another move downwards which is long due and one expects profit taking and stop losses to be triggered as a result. Let’s see what happens!
  12. @TheGuru12, During the rise of Bitcoin over 12 months ago I remember placing numerous trades within a 2-4 hour period and my trades were lasting around 5-10 mins if that on some of them. This was on IG's Spread Betting platform!
  13. @Amirf, Have a look at the price around July 2017 period and during the drop. Research shows us that 'Bubbles' tend to revert back to mean. Now that does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin must revert back to its mean as it could create a new 'history' for itself but if it was to revert back to its prices before the 'parabolic rise' then it could go into the $2k area. The truth is I do not know what the Bitcoin price will be next month or next year and the assumption I make will be tested and the results will be known via the price action of Bitcoin. So we are about to find out.
  14. @Stewart, Yes I think you summarise it well. I think the notion of the trade was correct and my timing was initially good as I was 140 points up at one stage but I then opened a second position at the wrong time and then the trade went totally against me. Interesting about going short. I think I shall be trying again very soon.
  15. I would just like to add that yes backtesting is important when fine tuning a trading system to establish an 'edge' but I believe that forward testing is crucial to confirm if that 'edge' truly exists and to really confirm quantification of that 'edge'.
  16. @JamesIG, I just tried a test to short NEO and still the same message is appearing. This was 12:33 pm. I look forward to received an in-depth reply on Monday as to the reasons why this was happening.
  17. Palladium has been outperforming all the other precious metals by quite a distance. Yes the margin requirements are higher but the performance has been higher too! The spread is not actually that bad either on it. As I have stated in many occasions a long term upward trend can last a lot longer than one expects. Palladium has a unique benefit in that it is a precious metal that can go up during time of crisis but also it has important industrial uses which means when economies are doing well, their stock markets are doing well in the shape of equities / indices then Palladium can too perform well. Platinum has been the weakest and Gold and Silver seeming to be at the beginning of their journey to possibly join Palladium but I do not think Palladium is about to give up its crown as 'Top Dog' anytime soon. From an investment portfolio perspective, I would want to start considering shifting a small allocation from equities into Precious Metals and Bonds and think about rebalancing based on Brexit consequences, recessions in certain EU Member States such as France and Germany and the US!
  18. I do not think the large financial institutions are going to flood capital into the Cryptocurrency markets in the likes of Bitcoin until the price is around the $2k area. There will be volatility and rallies along the way but it seems that Bitcoin is heading for the $2k area unless there is a remarkable change in sentiment and capital begins to be invested in Cryptocurrencies by the largest banks, etc.
  19. The only asset I day trade is Cryptocurrencies. I at times only place trades which last 5-10 mins within Cryptocurrencies. I just tried to short Neo, EOS and Stellar at 11:32 am on Saturday 19th January 2019 and could not do so. This is so frustrating. @JamesIG I am sure you will provide an explanation for this but I had to place the trade with another platform (competitor of IG's) and this happens far too often that I have lost count. The message I get is, "You cannot sell this market to open". I find short 5-10 min trades on Cryptocurrencies great when they are moving in a certain direction but IG's liquidity issues affect the level of service on Cryptocurrencies.
  20. I still believe the longer term trend is still (for now) in tact for both Gold and Silver on the 'Long' side. Therefore, it is likely that I will be looking to re-enter both very shortly should the upward move resume. Also, I think the next two months will be very volatile in the markets in general with Brexit et al and so I will be keeping an eye on the price action for both Gold and Silver for sure.
  21. @KU1, That is interesting. May I ask why not XAU / GBP? I am from the UK but I accept you may be based in another EU Member State but a very good question. I would like IG to offer XAU / GBP so lets see if IG can make us both happy!
  22. @softcell, No problem. Though I made losses on these trades it has done wonders for me in my 'Long Term Investment Portfolio' as I made some lump sum investments into my US Smaller Companies fund and Automation, Robotics and AI funds which have US based companies in the portfolio.
  23. I have exited the 'Short' position on the S&P 500 and the final result is as follows: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 ended up down 96 points. Both my 'Short' trades on the S&P 500 have resulted in losing trades. That is fine. One learns and moves on. I try not to get emotionally attached to any of my losing trades and I have had many. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages so it is not wise to open any shorts on this yet. The 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages are all sloping upwards which indicates to me a bullish pattern but the 200 day moving average is sloping downwards which still gives me the impression that there could be a big move downwards looming. I do not know when but I would be surprised if the S&P 500 did not revisit and re-test the recent low formed. The volume is not convincing in my opinion. When you look at the volume when I went opened my short trade compared to the volume now when it is trending upwards then there is a stark different. This does make me think whether this is just a monster relief rally and it does make me question how genuine this rally is. However, it is the price action which determines whether to trade or not and if so then which direction to trade everything else is secondary. I hope those who were following this live trade found it both useful and beneficial. Also for those of you not aware I was also sharing live trades in Gold and Silver which both were profitable trades so you may wish to look at that thread if you have not done so. It then gives a balanced picture of both profitable and losing trades shared with the IG Community.
  24. I have exited both 'long' positions in Gold and Silver today. The actual results are as follows: Long Trade in Silver up 78 points in just over one month from opening the trade Long Trade in Gold up 37 points in just over one month from opening the trade So I have profited from both trades in a reasonable timescale using the ability to leverage via Spread Betting. Gold and Silver have both gone below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Volume was higher on the downward days than the upward days recently. There may be a shift in sentiment due to the recent rally in the major indices such as the US and UK markets. Also there will be of course profit selling resulting in stop losses being triggered amplifying the move downwards. Right now it is about watching the price action and re-entering on the recommencing of the trend upwards for those looking to go long. There could also be a shorting opportunity but it is not something I would be looking at right now with all the uncertainty still in the market but for shorter term traders there could be some profitable short trades on both Gold and Silver.
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