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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. TrendFollower

    Price action trading

    No one is suggesting that price action or trend following works 100% of the time. It does not. End of. What price action and trend following does is increase your chances of making a profit by going with the trend and price action rather than against it. It is about increasing the probability of a successful trade or investment. Yes, absolutely it does not work 100% of the time. Using the method does not guarantee a successful outcome. Nor does value investing or any other method. There is no trading strategy that works 100% of the time. Even the trend following hedge funds using algorithmic trading black boxes lost money a few years back and a lot of these hedge funds had to shut down as the drawdowns were getting too frequent and too large. However, it is about your personal viewpoint which strategy you adopt. My mindset and personality allows me to be comfortable placing a trade or making an investment going in the same direction as the trend. I am comfortable having 7 out of 10 losing trades as long as the 3 that are my winners make enough profits that they cover all the losses on my 7 losing trades. Now there will be many that are not comfortable having say 70% losing trades. That is fine. They will find a strategy based on their knowledge, experience and personal mindset that they feel comfortable with. What you tend to be doing is keep on going on and on about how price action does not work yet the sources that you are providing links for do not seem 100% credible to me. What makes your links "100% truthful and fact?". They will have an element of bias in how it shows the message it is trying to convey. If you do not want to use price action and it does not work for you then fine. What you should do with your wisdom and experience is share real time trading idea to the IG Community. Maybe certain trades that others have not considered, or are not aware of, etc. This would be more useful. I do not always agree with value investing as Warren Buffet had an edge that no ordinary investor could ever get. That does not mean that I keep posting about how value investing does not work. I am sure there are websites that provide such a message. There may be many investors for whom value investing does work. That is trading and investing life. Each to their own strategy and style.
  2. The 4 hour chart on Aluminium looks extremely positive. It generally tends to be quite choppy in terms of volatility so I fully expect a pull back but if any of you were thinking of entering then do use 'Oscillators' to aid your decision making.
  3. TrendFollower

    Aluminium - 4 Hour Chart Looks Promising

    James, Copper has been boosted by Chinese imports which hit a 3.5 year high. Also there was a rumour which has been denied that China's top copper producer, state-owned Jiangxi Copper, had stopped production also supported prices this week. For me looking at the price action of Copper over the next few days and weeks will be key. The trade I am thinking about relates to the price breaking the 3.25 to 3.35 range. If it does and surpasses 3.40 price range then I would be looking to go long here on Copper. Aluminium is slightly more tricky as there is suggestions that there could be surpluses in China who are the biggest producer and consumer of the metal. China is determined to shut illegal smelters, and cut production of aluminium by 30% in four provinces around Beijing during the winter, to curb pollution. I would be looking to enter a long position if not already long in Aluminium on any major pullback. I look at charts to identify trends. I look at charts for moving averages, oscillators, etc. However I am not a chartist or somebody who goes into too much detail and technicality on charts. I allow the price action to determine whether I open the position long or short. If I go long and the trend reverses then my stop loss will come into play. If not then I will allow the position to run until the trend reverses. This will I should be able to maximise my profit and minimise my losses. For commodity trades I do tend to establish if their is a fundamental reason behind the price action. I always feel that if there is then it just makes the trend stronger. For example, in recent months the fundamental story was there for both Lumber and Orange Juice due to the hurricane in Florida. However that trade is no longer on for Orange Juice though for Lumber there may have been a healthy pullback looking at the charts.
  4. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin

    I agree. It would be interesting to know for all those people looking to open positions on Bitcoin, what their trading strategy and plan is? Do they actually have one? Do they know at what price they are going to exit even before they enter their trade? How are they going to determine their stop loss level? This is the most difficult aspect I personally have found trading Bitcoin. If you set your stop loss too tight then you will get stopped out very frequently and quickly. If you leave it too wide then your losses could increase to uncomfortable levels. Also add not being able to open position in Bitcoin when you want to with IG just adds to the difficulty. Especially when a short term breakout has been identified, etc. This was one of the main reasons why I switched from trading Bitcoin on IG to investing in Bitcoin via XBT Tracker products.
  5. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin

    I have commented before but trading Bitcoin is really in my opinion for professional day traders. Anyone else will end up losing money as they will just get stopped out due to the extreme volatility. You really would need to have an 'algorithmic black box' and the latest systematic trading system in place to even have a chance and be able to enter and exit your position within nano seconds to truly have an edge. Also this would take any fraction of emotion out of the trade. If anyone does not have access to such tools then it is very difficult to even compete in such an arena. I have invested in Bitcoin and Ether via XBT Trackers in both SEK and EUR currencies and my strategy is to hold as I believe there is more upside. I don't even believe we have even seen half of the bubble yet. There are so many that do not know what Bitcoin is or have ever heard of Blockchain. There are so many that do not have any sort of position or investment in either. Therefore if Bitcoin is in a bubble and I am not suggesting it is as this can be debated from both perspectives, then I would say it is only the start of the bubble or at best half way through the bubble. We are certainly no where near the end of the bubble. I will not wish anyone the best of luck who is even attempting to trade Bitcoin without the above tools. Luck and hope should not be part of your trading / investment strategy. You must have a specific trading plan for Bitcoin which you are able to execute. You must have specific rules which you will follow. Extreme discipline is required and anything less will lead to overall failure in my opinion.
  6. I have just recently suggested two long term fund ideas which could generate and create wealth for anyone with younger children / grandchildren. The two themes are Robotics and Artificial Intelligence. Pictet offer a Robotics fund and several fund management companies now offer Artificial Intelligence (AI) funds. I feel these two areas could see some enormous growth in the years to come so I would encourage at least holding for minimum 5-10 years but possibly 20-40 years. This could see a fantastic opportunity for long term wealth creation. If you look at the performance of biotech funds which was extremely popular over the past 5 years or so and look at the returns generated then you already have people investing in biotech who could easily add into such funds as well as some of them switching to robotic and AI funds. Those who know me in relation to the IG Community will now I am an advocate of Blockchain. I can see Blockchain as a path to Artificial Intelligence. I say this as smart contract platforms are being designed to run at graduated stages of increasing automation, autonomy and complexity.
  7. TrendFollower

    Aluminium - 4 Hour Chart Looks Promising

    Whilst you are in the Base Metal arena you may want to look at the 4 hour chart for Copper.
  8. TrendFollower

    Cotton - Strong Trend

    I am replying back to myself but the Cotton price action really interests me. The trend is very bullish and extremely strong from a 4 hour chart perspective. It makes me laugh as if you go back six months or more then the media were reporting how Cotton prices should remain low, etc. This is what I call 'Market Noise'. One must ignore the media and literally park it to one side or not look at it when making any decision to enter or exit a trade. Let the price action and trend determine your entry and exit points. Cotton is not just walking but running like an Egyptian!
  9. TrendFollower

    Brazil 60 - Possible Next Leg Up?

    From a trend following perspective, one should welcome volatility. Also Bitcoin is one of the strongest trends and bull markets I have witnessed yet it is one of the most volatile trades ever. If you want to know the volatility then just look at the Brazil charts!
  10. TrendFollower

    2018-Bitcoin

    I am sorry but I do not agree with your view and position. Let me try and explain why. If you or others do not agree with me then that is fine and each to their own beliefs. The reason why I state the above is because I personally carried out research on the price behaviour of Bitcoin compared to gold during every serious news item in relation to North Korea and Trump (missile launches, etc.) over the past 12 months. I even reported some of the results during the past six months on this very IG Community forum so if you look back at my posts historically then you will see the results for Bitcoin against gold in real time. On every occasion in 2017 the Bitcoin price went up by far a considerable amount compared to gold which was miniscule. So the evidence in the past 12 months does not support your view which you share with such confidence. Bitcoin outperformed gold when Trump was elected, Brexit, Syria, North Korea, Russia, etc. Have a look for yourself and then you will see why I do not agree with your view. The data suggests otherwise. One must be careful of the media. They have a bias and agenda on their stance for Bitcoin. I do not always accept what the media reports. If the media wants people to think Bitcoin is a bubble then the majority of them will report as such without knowing all the technical details, historical facts, etc. People then read such literature or watch such news and believe it because it has been reported by a 'reputable' media platform. This is called 'MARKET NOISE'. One must ignore this and look at what the price action and volume is telling you. Yes, historically people may have gone to gold during any financial crisis as gold was seen as a safe haven and still is. However we are now in the digital era and Bitcoin is trying to be the digital gold. It is trying to be a digital store of value. I have already witnessed in 2017 and prior capital flowing into Bitcoin during political turmoil, economic risk and financial instability. Bitcoin is decentralised and so does not want to backed by any country or authority. It does not want to be manipulated by powerful countries who can move markets. The value of an asset is something that someone is prepared to pay for it. This is very simplistic in what is a complex area but that is for another time. Bitcoin is worth what it is as people are prepared to pay that price for it. Why is gold worth the price it is? After all it is a piece of metal. Yes it has commercial uses but at the end of the day it is a piece of metal which shines and the world thinks it is valuable. Bitcoin is actually more scarce a resource than gold. They have been mining gold for thousands of years. I think around 6,000 thousands years and they are still mining it now. So how scarce is gold? There will only be 21 million Bitcoins and if people are prepared to pay $50,000 for one Bitcoin then the price will appreciate. I try not to let history and historical action cloud my judgement as otherwise it would be hard to accept, understand and appreciate any new innovation, new generation, new beliefs, etc.
  11. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin bullish or bearish

    I have absolutely no idea. As a trend follower, I mainly focus on price action and volume. If the trend changes then you exit the position. Whilst the trend is still in tact then you hold your position. Therefore to me it does not matter if there is a long term bear market. The invested capital has to flow somewhere and it is about spotting where the capital is shifting towards in a bear market and spotting that trend. During bear markets there will be lot of shorting opportunities. If the trend reverses on Bitcoin then simple, we must short it and make money whilst it goes down. However, at the moment the short is only on during very short 24 hour - 48 hour periods. Shorting Bitcoin really is for professional day traders at the moment.
  12. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin bullish or bearish

    I am bullish for Bitcoin. I believe it will ultimately be used as the 'equivalent' of the gold standard in Cryptocurrencies. It will go down in history as the origin point of bringing Blockchain to the market and also Cryptocurrencies. I believe that the alternative crypto's that make it could be pegged to Bitcoin as it could possibly be used as a digital store of value. I am also bullish for Ether, Ripple, Litecoin, Dash, IOTA and Stellar. By the way it did break 12k, I think it hit around $10.6k or thereabouts during the build up to Christmas Day. I am also bullish because there is a limited supply of Bitcoin so as it becomes more scarce as the quantity mined will become expensive and limited, I feel the price will rise. I am also bullish because ETF's have yet to take off for Bitcoin and institutional investment is yet to come in and when these do I can only see the price increasing. I think $20k is on then after that it is anyone's guess. Bitcoin has increased in value even quicker than the so called 'experts' expectations and predictions. If it hits $1 trillion market cap which will only still be 1/8th of gold's market cap then the Bitcoin rally still has a long way to go.
  13. TrendFollower

    FTSE SYSTEM

    I agree.
  14. TrendFollower

    2018-Bitcoin

    What makes you think there is going to be a financial crisis? On what basis do you make this assumption? I do not know if there is going to be a financial crisis next year. However, if your assumption were to be correct then there would be huge capital flows out of the so called 'normal assets' and is it possible or conceivable that this capital could flow into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies? If so a financial crisis could be a major boost to the price of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I have reported on previous posts in the past six months that every time there was any rhetoric between North Korea and Trump then Bitcoin went up considerably compared to historical safe haven of gold.
  15. TrendFollower

    2018-Bitcoin

    Little knowledge is very dangerous. I am not an expert on Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies. However, I do read as much as I can on the subject along with Blockchain. The media in terms of TV news channels, newspapers around the world and online websites are also dangerous as they report on little evidence on the subject of Bitcoin and there is a lot of 'bias' in the way they report the news. The price action of Bitcoin does not follow the media stance on Bitcoin. There is a lot of scaremonger tactics. Bitcoin is not held by large institutions. Bitcoin is not held by many people. Bitcoin is in the hands of the very few even now at $15,000 price. So when suggesting it is a bubble one must be clear on what defines a bubble. I do not think it is wise to compare the tulip mania to Bitcoin as both were under different circumstances, era's and economic environments. Cryptocurrencies are the future. I think most will fail and only the best ones will remain. Those will continue to increase in price. In my opinion Bitcoin will be the mother of all Crypto's. The 'Origin Point'. The base and foundation. The equivalent of the gold standard in the crypto market. It will be a digital store of value. I cannot see Bitcoin being the main digital currency but I can see central governments adopting their own digital currencies going forwards in the future. There are rumours that Israel are working on a state cryptocurrency. I can also see several digital currencies that could hit the mainstream market in the future. However most of the thousands of cryptocurrencies will fail and disappear with investors losing their money. If Bitcoin is a bubble and you all have knowledge and experience of how a bubble operates then embrace this knowledge and experience and use it to make money. If Bitcoin is a bubble then it has a lot more upside still left as there are far too many people who do not have any exposure to this asset class within their ISA's, SIPP'S, personal pensions, trading accounts, investment portfolios, funds they hold such as OEICS and investment trusts. Once institutional investors get involved, ETF's are launches, OEICS and investment trusts are created for this asset class then you can say that Bitcoin could possibly be a bubble that is only if and a big if it does not become a currency that people use or a digital store of value.
  16. Lumber is up over 1000 points today. Could the next leg upwards be commencing on Lumber?
  17. TrendFollower

    Could the next leg for Lumber be commencing?

    Here goes Lumber again. Another 960+ points up at time of writing.
  18. How will the 7.5% per annum IG Admin Fee be applied? If you were offering a great service and offering the choice of Ripple, Dash, IOTA, Stellar Lumens, etc. then I can just about get my head around such an admin fee but to charge on current performance I think is extremely disappointing. IG needs to provide a far higher level of service and offer a wider choice before it starts charging in such a way.
  19. One of Warren Buffet's advice is to be greedy when others are fearful. Right now on Bitcoin there is panic selling, profit taking, etc. Charts are showing a 40% retrace. Would you follow Warren Buffett's advice and buy Bitcoin now? Would you be greedy and buy lots of it? Lets assume I was not talking about Bitcoin but another asset, say a company share or even a commodity but it was showing the same price action as Bitcoin and you believed in the fundamental long term story, what would you do?
  20. Caseynotes, I agree. Though I am a trend follower I will never force my views on anyone or belittle anyone who has a different strategy as we can all be successful using different styles, techniques and trading different assets. If buy the dip works for Oilfxpro then great. I think we all get the message.
  21. Within the past four years, Pantera Capital and its bitcoin hedge fund has recorded a 25,004% return, nearly six-fold of the legendary Quantum Fund of billionaire investors Jim Rogers and George Soros. For decades, Rogers and Soros were praised by the global finance market as legendary and once in a lifetime investors for recording a 4,600 percent return in 10 years. Pantera Capital’s bitcoin hedge fund recorded five times of that in merely four years.
  22. https://www.ccn.com/trader-bets-1-million-that-bitcoin-price-will-reach-50000-in-2018/
  23. TrendFollower

    Price action trading

    121, That's right. Not many people know that he was a futures trader at Sabre Fund Management in the 80's I believe. I think from memory he was only there for a couple of years but he certainly made a very strong impression. He is very well educated and I believe he studied Science at Cambridge. He founded the AHL at Man Group before setting up Winton Capital Management which has been going for around 20 years now. He is a strong advocate of quantitiative trading. David Harding is a billionaire and his wealth has been created from trend following using a quantitative approach. He was a successful trader. He used a combination of high level mathematics and science. Not everyone can replicate what he has done because not only is he a very intelligence and smart man but his education plus experience makes him unique in the UK and most of the world. This is why people like Covel can only write about them and share his story rather than replicate. The odds are against anyone even trying to copy him. He has got stronger over the years because he has -re-invested the wealth he has created in employing the smartest brains around and using the latest, fastest and best technology available.
  24. TrendFollower

    Price action trading

    The Billion Dollar Hedge Fund Interview with David Harding, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Winton Capital Management http://www.eurekahedge.com/NewsAndEvents/News/1193/The_Billion_Dollar_Interview_with_David_Harding_Chairman_and_Chief_Executive_Officer_at_Winton_Capital_Management
  25. TrendFollower

    Price action trading

    Oilfxpro, your discussions lead to a classic discretionary vs systematic trading argument. There are pros and cons for both. There is a lot of literature out there on both which I won't repeat. Hedge Funds were extremely successful and some of them still are using systematic trading with algorithmic 'black box' to assist in extremely quick speed execution on buying and selling. This helps to take emotion out of the trade. It helps from your 'psychology' perspective. The issues you have highlighted would apply more to discretionary traders. That is where someone mindset, mentality, personality, education, upbringing, environment, background, experience all and much more come into play. It is extremely complex and not every trader even a successful one could even begin to contemplate such difficult matters.
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