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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Lumber is playing out exactly how I had envisaged. I attach a chart below to nicely illustrate this. Lumber (Timber) is what I would deem as a more 'defensive asset' which tends to hold its price well during market turmoils. Of course it is not as defensive as cash and fixed interest! Therefore once this downwards pressure is over and it will then I can easily see another couple of years of Lumber prices slowly rising. This is when one must think about a long term trade in Lumber and just 'letting it ride'. However, one must wait for the downward move to conclude and then wait for a clear trend reversal to enter. For now the only trade is short on Lumber so for those of you holding well done.
  2. I am not sure why my chart is not showing anymore from my previous post.
  3. Sometimes just noticing a pattern however simple can really help to hone into the habit of following the price action and observing how it behaves. For Coffee (Arabica) I have attached the chart and as you can when you zoom in to October we are really beginning to see a pattern emerge. One of the major premises of technical analysis is that history repeats itself. For me there is no guarantee of this. Spotting such patterns can increase the probability of something happening but nothing more. In my experience the bigger the move upwards the greater the chance of a trend reversal. Without such a big move there is no trend to reverse! An interesting test here will be to see what happens next? One must test their assumptions and not be worried about being wrong. Being wrong is fine as long as one understands why they were wrong and the reasons behind it. Also important lessons and experience can be gained from being wrong when making such assumptions.
  4. @Caseynotes, I must admit I did not know this. I had been using other software for my 200 day moving averages. Sometimes I do wonder if you either work for IG as you certainly seem to know so much. IG should really be employing you or at least certainly paying you for the sheer time you spend helping everyone.I doubt IG staff in customer services do as much as you! Thank you very much for this. Though it was not my question, it was certainly helpful to me and I am sure others.
  5. Good question. Yes 200 MA is very useful for trend followers.
  6. I am not a fan of Bitcoin Gold. However, out of all the Cryptocurrencies that IG offer on its platform, Bitcoin Gold, seems to have the better looking chart over the past three month period.
  7. I found a potential pattern on the charts of Ripple which could lead to another move downwards. I have highlighted it using arrows in the chart below. Now it may be that the next move downwards is less than after the first arrow or it is a mere coincidence and Ripple continues moving upwards. It will be interesting to see.
  8. Those that know me will appreciate that I am more 'words' than charts. The charts are there for all of us to see. Some of us will interpret the charts differently depending on our timeframes. To me the long term trend upwards is still in tact for now. I think a good discussion to support and supplement the charts would be on whether anyone would enter a long position on Crude WTI right now? It is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages - well just about! I will stick my head out and say no as the trend is appearing to get weaker compared to the June 2017 to May 2018 time period. So from a long term perspective I would not enter this trade. From a short to medium term perspective there may still be another leg upwards after this drop so there could be an opportunity of a short term trend reversal, so a short term trade to take advantage of the volatility in WTI may be a possible trade. Buying on dips during a long term trend can be quite an effective strategy. Even adding to existing positions during such dips can really ramp up profits when the asset is trending upwards. If you look at the chart then WTI has been trending upwards over a year now so it would have been an effective and possibly still is an effective long term trade.
  9. Oh I forgot to mention an IG Analyst will now publish a story on the price action of Coffee - New York (Arabica). ? If one wanted to trade this from a hedging perspective then could consider going long Coffee - New York (Arabica) and then go short Coffee - London (Robusta) which is also trending upwards but at a slower pace than Arabica. The above is just a potential trade idea and is by no means the correct trade and nor is there any guarantee of any success in such a trade. I am just putting this out there as IG Community is there to encourage the 'sharing of trading ideas'.
  10. @Pottsypotts, that is excellent. @cryptotrader, you may be interested in today's price action where Arabica Coffee is up 450 points and 3.8% at the time of writing. It was slightly higher earlier. This is an extremely strong trend we are witnessing. It may be short term but it does not matter. It is a trading opportunity to make some profits on the long trade. Leverage will increase the profitability of the trade but one must use caution and sound risk management in case there is a vicious trend reversal which is quick and deadly. I have never flown to space but I imagine a rocket taking off would look like the chart above! ?
  11. @JamesIG, I just watched the interview with Mike Edwards. He spoke exactly like I knew he would. There was nothing new or interesting about the interview at all. If anything it may give awareness to potential new investors but apart from that there was no real substance in the interview. The chart is grim! This seems to be linked to the decline in cryptocurrency prices in general. I still stand by my opinion that the IPO valuation was too high. Did the likes of Miton, Jupiter and Henderson get a nice discount off the IPO listing price? Did they jump ship as soon as the stock was listed possibly making a nice quick profit at the expense of the smaller investors who are sitting on losses? Only institutional selling could cause the price to move in such a manner. For me if I became a customer of Argo and mined say Bitcoin using their MaaS model, I would need a crypto wallet to store the Bitcoin in which Argo does not seem to offer. I am not convinced the demand is there to really scale up this business to any significant level. However, I will keep an open mind and will let the sales revenues tell me how this business is doing.
  12. @Pottsypotts, There are many external factors that can affect the price of commodities. I trade commodities based on trends looking closely at price action and how the price is behaving. However, I do like to try and understand the fundamentals as to why the price is behaving the way it is. Commodities are what I would deem capital-intensive so basically they are influenced by natural factors like weather conditions, crop diseases, etc. On top of this there are factors like the economic and political environment. Now these factors can affect the cost of producing the commodity and the demand for it. Some simple and basic research on the Internet can usually assist in finding the reason why the commodity price is increasing or decreasing the way it is. Time dedication will usually (not always) give you the answers from online media publications. Reuters, Financial Times and the like have a commodity section which can be a useful source of information. Websites like Agrimony is also good. https://www.agrimoney.com
  13. The £10m profit warning was not unexpected. This news was out there most probably in the inner circles of the city. The price action tells us a story. Normally there is a reason behind the story. The smart money exits well before this story hits the media. By the time the story hits the media new investors seeking value investment opportunities are sitting on losses as they have invested without a trend reversal confirmation. As they say never buy a 'falling knife'.
  14. @Demoni1, I have posted some links which you may wish to look at. This includes fees and charges for speadbetting commodities on IG's platform. https://www.ig.com/usermanagement/customeragreements?igCompany=iggb&agreementType=costs_and_charges&locale=en_GB https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/what-are-igs-commodities-spread-bet-product-details https://a.c-dn.net/c/content/dam/publicsites/1532696440757/igcom/uk/files/account/180725_IGI_UK_Margin_Rates_Commodities_Retail.pdf
  15. Coffee - New York (Arabica) is beginning to look very interesting and one may want to consider entering a long trade. It is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. I have included the current chart below from IG. It seems that prices may have bottomed. There is a clear uptrend in play. For me some of the best trades are when one spots the breakout early and enters the trade before the media start reporting and jumping on the bandwagon.
  16. @JamesIG, Thank you for this opportunity. It is very much appreciated. I have an interest, as a company I have shares in (Vela Technologies PLC) has a stake in this business. However I have just looked at the significant shareholders list on Argo's website and they do not make the list so their stake must be very small. What surprised me is that the likes of Miton Asset Management, Janus Henderson Investors and Jupiter Asset Management have taken significant stakes. These could be for their micro / small cap funds or their technology funds, not sure. (Q1) Are they able to confirm which? (Q2) Where do Vela Technologies PLC fit into their shareholder base? Below is from the most recent RNS from Vela on Argo: On Admission Vela will own 2,500,000 shares in Argo representing 0.85 per cent. of Argo's enlarged share capital. At the placing price of 16 pence per share Vela's holding in Argo will be valued at £400,000. Vela originally subscribed for 2,500,000 shares in Argo in February 2018 at a price of 8 pence per share for a consideration of £200,000 as part of a £2.5 million pre-IPO fundraise. Below is the link from Argo's website today of their significant shareholders: https://www.argomining.co/significant-shareholders I am a bit confused. (Q3) Every time I look at the Argo website to see the mining packages they are sold out. This is extremely frustrating. Surely demand should have been taken into account before offering such a proposition to the market? What research was done prior to this as constantly sold out though is positive will only count for anything if some serious profit and financial results are reported at end of year. This was announced a few days ago on Proactive Investors. I hope something new is offered with the interview with IG. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/206856/argo-blockchain-to-add-bitcoin-to-mining-platform-206856.html (Q4) Have IG approached Argo or have Argo approached IG? Who pays who for this interview? This is more of an internal question. (Q5) Going forwards what other Cryptocurrencies are going to be available? (Q6) Is it possible that Argo will be able to offer Crypto Wallet facilities like Abra and Coinbase in the future? (Q7) What valuation targets have Argo set themselves? Are they looking to be acquired by a 'bigger fish' or do they have ambitions to be the 'bigger fish'? (Q8) Are there likely to be any acquisitions in the future that could enhance their proposition? (Q9) What is their strategy to be able to cope with the demand so that they can maximise revenues? Right now they cannot meet demand which means they are losing sales and revenue. This is not good. (Q10) What revenue and sales targets have they set themselves? How do they intend to increase sales and revenues year on year? This is what the market and investors (especially retail institutions) look for. What were the reasons why the likes of Miton, Janus Henderson and Jupiter bought in? This is an extremely high risk business listed on AIM (known for 90% of the companies listed being poor investments). (Q11) In my opinion for Argo to succeed it will need strong leadership, ability to raise capital whilst demonstrating a rising share price and management being able to execute a clear and sound strategy. There is 'execution risk' and it will require competent personnel. Are there any thoughts of recruiting some 'heavyweights' in the industry to really drive the company forward? @JamesIG, I could go on and on but will give others a chance as well! ?
  17. The short trade is on for Carbon Emissions. It may go up over the long term but for now a short trade could be profitable. It is currently trading below its 20 and 50 day moving averages and very near its 100 day moving average. One must remember that if this short trade is successful then it will go down far quicker than the 12 month period it was in an uptrend. It will take a fraction of this timescale. I have included the chart below as of today.
  18. Thanks for this. It seems Cryptos are mainly blue at the moment but that long term downward bias is still there. It will be interesting to see how they react later on in the day and evening.
  19. At 5:00 am it was normal price action. That was quick!
  20. @Mercury, yes I did mean $1225. You have used £ instead of $. From an economic perspective there is one factor that could give the 'backdrop story' behind any rise in Gold prices. This is inflationary pressures. Inflation is already spiking but trade tariffs and other factors could accelerate the inflationary process going forward. Staying with the economics perspective, the US's national debt is humungous. The Federal Reserve could try and inflate it away, I can't see any other way that it is going to decline! From a technical perspective and I just looked at the monthly chart on IG then it does look in favour of your comments. I have included the monthly IG chart below. On a monthly view Gold is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. What is interesting is that when you switch to the daily view on IG then it is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is where timeframes are important.
  21. Again at the time of writing Orange Juice is down 35.3 points and down by 0.25%. Bearing in mind this was one of the worst hurricanes to hit Florida then the price action is quite interesting. The clue was the lack of any trend reversal or build up from the news weeks ago on this hurricane. It kind of indicated that the price would not behave the same as prior to Hurricane Irma hitting Florida. What are your thoughts on this @Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG?
  22. @Mercury, Gold at the time of writing this post is $1125. So it has pushed through your target of $1220. Yes, I think you are possibly right in that USD weakness may well lift Gold. However, I do feel that for Gold to really flex its muscles in terms of price action then we will need to see a large drop in equities. Otherwise Gold may well flirt with $1400 and then come down to $1200 and there will be a lot of sideways consolidation and range bound activity. Silver is generally view as Gold on Steroids. The charts show Silver to be behind Gold at the moment. I remember Silver's run up to $50 and using leverage to increase my profits during that period. If Gold does go on a run then Silver should amplify any of Gold's price action during the same period. The price action of Silver will be worth keeping an eye on.
  23. @WarrenMunger, I must admit I have had this message today around lunch time. I don't know if it was down or just my web browser or computer.
  24. Gold hit $1205 and went above $1200. It needs to stay above the psychological $1200 level. If equities were truly heading for a 'full blown' bear market then I would have expected Gold have a far bigger price reaction that it has shown. However that may well change once the US wakes up!
  25. @cryptotrader, yes I would agree that at this moment in time Bitcoin is not behaving like a safe haven. I agree with @Mercury that the asset class is far too small compared to precious metals, bonds, etc. I envisage Bitcoin in the future becoming a digital store of value (Digital Gold). There is a long way to go and many years before this can happen. Cryptocurrency as an asset class along with Bitcoin needs to grow a **** of a lot. This may not happen but is something I envisage could happen in the future. I have seen such drops in Bitcoin many times now. It is not something that worries me. Yes, Bitcoin could drop to $5000, $3000 or even $1000. It is possible. It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin reacts should the SEC approve a Bitcoin ETF in the US or say India becomes more positive on Cryptocurrencies. I am still positive on Cryptocurrencies (not all of them by the way), Blockchain the technology behind it which is gathering momentum outside of the Crypto Universe, Tokenisation (Tokenomics) and this whole arena. The junk will fail and go to zero. Absolutely and so it should. Only quality will survive. I do agree with some of the comments by Mercury in a previous post. As an asset class it is peanuts compared to Equities, Bonds, etc so I accept the point that it cannot even attempt to replace Gold as a safe haven now or even in the next couple of years.
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