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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. TrendFollower

    Gold Heading For 1276.61

    @Caseynotes, Yes agree. Bearing in mind a US Government shutdown in all this, if the US economy was to improve further and reported earnings are positive and meet or exceed expectations then one can see a further decline in Gold as Equities continue rising. The price action of Gold is merely reacting to such possibilities and also activity taking place and economic reports.
  2. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    Both IG and @Caseynotes are suggesting that Gold could be heading towards $1277 support level. If it were to breach that then the drop could be amplified through profit taking, stop losses being hit and short positions increasing. Now the question is whether anyone on the IG Community is short and if so at what price and what indicators they used. What was their rationale behind such decision making?
  3. TrendFollower

    Gold Heading For 1276.61

    @Caseynotes, Yes I read an IG article this morning suggesting $1277 as support. I think the market is beginning to price in a positive trade end to US-China talks and a better US economy ahead than was expected. US economy still not in brilliant shape by any means but better than expectations. Therefore sentiment is changing.
  4. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @Caseynotes, I did ask James a while back if it was possible for the creator of the thread to change the title and it is not. It is a shame as you have people following specific threads so you don’t want to lose them but the ability to amend the title would be very useful. The trend has changed during the time period of this thread so the discussion has to be fluid enough to discuss the upward trend in place now and going long opportunities.
  5. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    Elle (not tagged you as per your wishes) My response was in line with your comment above and sense of humour but obviously you do not appreciate the same sense of humour back. What I am trying to achieve in this discussion is to establish if you are trading any US indices and if so are you 'long' or are you 'short'? You post a lot of charts with very few words. I appreciate a picture can tell a thousand words but new traders or inexperienced traders could misinterpret your charts or not fully understand or appreciate them. This thread is all about potential shorting opportunity for US indices. Now obviously the potential opportunity has in fact been long since Christmas. Who on the IG Community is long? When did they go 'long' and why? At what point did their analysis and use of various indicators allow them to initiate a long trade? I think either you are reading too much into my post or misinterpreting it. Why must anyone be trying to achieve anything within a conversation? Are my questions really that difficult to answer? The inference I make from all your charts with supply zones and demand zones is that you could well be 'long' on US indices if you are following your own charts. However that is only an assumption from me. I do not know but what would be interesting is to try and understand if you are long then when you went long and why? I explained why I went short and why at the time. It is very easy to post lots of charts and hide behind them. They are meaningless unless there is some context, analysis and application behind them.
  6. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    It seems normal service is resumed in Bitcoin and the other Cryptocurrencies offered by IG on its platform. This is also following a similar pattern that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and more. This pattern will change at some point but not until Bitcoin hits its bottom and then possibly hits it again to support any move upwards and confirm to the participants that the bottom is in place. Potential Trade Idea: 💡 This now represents a possible shorting opportunity. A good entry point for the short could be to go short on any days when Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies are going up. Using Oscillators may assist with any entry points. Ensure stop loss is in place and you know your exit price before entering the trade. Disclaimer: The above is just a potential trade idea and it could be the wrong trade, there could be a strong upward move that means stop losses are triggered or generally a sharp trend reversal could occur.
  7. TrendFollower

    mt4

    @Kodiak, I have been suggesting for a while that forward testing is extremely important when trying to optimise a trading system. Unless the market conditions, economic conditions, political conditions or what ever happens to move that particular asset are the same or very similar then forward testing will not necessarily provide results and data similar to backward testing. You need to have some form of ratio so for example for every three to five years you go back then you forward test one year, etc. If you are trading Commodities for example and Cocoa in particular then unless the conditions are similar for the back testing period for when you forward test then the data can be unreliable hence why a lot of traders lose money. They conduct extensive backtesting then also do forward testing but cannot understand why their trades are not as profitable even when backtesting a period of 10 to 20 years! Variables one must consider are: Market Conditions Economic Conditions Political Conditions Supply / Demand for the specific asset (especially Commodities) Market Sentiment One must conduct 'Walk Forward Analysis' to try and best optimise your trading system.
  8. TrendFollower

    Broadcasts not Loading

    @IGMan, What does that tell you about Chrome and Safari? (Yes, it was meant to be an open ended question) 😁
  9. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @elle, So when others were shorting were you going 'long'? 😉 I have no idea if you are trading US indices and if so which ones and whether you are long or short based on all your previous posts and charts. 🤔 Do you have an open 'long' on any of the US indices? The price action from the start of October 2018 to 26th December 2018 was downwards. From January 2019 to March 2019 (to date) it has been upwards. During this time period one could have shorted US indices and then gone long on the very same US indices based on price action. It is all about timing. My timing was clearly out but there will have been many (far better traders than me) that would have profited on both these time periods using 'short' and 'long' trading strategies.
  10. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @george2803, No, I am not short. I have not been for a while. I am day trading on the long side. If you follow this thread then I shared a live trade with the IG Community and it is completely transparent when I opened any positions and when I closed them. You should follow it before you judge and comment. If after that you want to offer any insights into better and more effective decision making for trading execution, you can share this. If you feel like you have a better understanding of trading than me then please do share a live trade from inception to closure especially as I do not understand trading and you understand it better than me. You can share with the IG Community so that we can all learn from you. You are right it was not a great trade but if you follow this thread from the start then you will see that I was up a lot of points on this trade so was it an incorrect decision at that moment in time? If you think it was then please explain how you would know that if you were making trading decisions on price action and various indicators such as moving averages? I opened the short during that sharp decline downwards trading with the trend hence the short position. It could be that I kept my stop loss too wide or maybe I should have day traded on the short side hence closing positions daily reducing the risk exposure. I am not worried about having losing trades. You obviously do not know anything about me. I have shared a live losing trade with the IG Community but please do take the time to read my other threads and posts before making any judgements.
  11. TrendFollower

    Planned interview with Jim Rogers

    @JamesIG, The question is not which markets should the average investor focus on but which markets should the very best investors who want to make the highest returns focus on? My personal opinion is that for those who are serious about long term wealth creation then from a risk / reward perspective one should seriously consider Frontier Markets and Emerging Markets on any deep corrections and selling pressure. I think both Frontier and Emerging Markets will outperform other markets over the longer term. I personally like the theme of Automation, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence and think this could see some stellar returns over the longer term. I think Blockchain and Tokenisation will be themes that emerge and Cryptocurrencies as an asset class will grow stronger and more resilient over the coming decade. It would be interesting if Jim Rogers agrees with me or not. If he does not then I would like to know why not? I would like to know the specific reasons why he does not agree with me. Also I would like to know what in Jim Rogers opinion will outperform over the longer term the assets and themes I have mentioned and more specifically why?
  12. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @elle No one is asking anyone to trade anything differently or in fact telling anyone how to trade. I too just trade on price action that is occurring now. I think far too many times traders are scared to write what they think in case they are judged, criticised or humiliated, etc. One must be honest with their opinions as long as they are presented in a professional manner and cause no offence or make it personal by belittling anyone. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having an opinion or making an assumption. If one does not have a view on what they think is going to happen with the price action then how can one make a trading decision either on the 'long' side or 'short' side? One must form a view based on various indicators, activities and price behaviours. These will go into their 'basket of information' to help them make an informed trading decision. Either they will open a 'long' trade or open a 'short' trade. Oh yes or they will decide not to trade. If they trade then they will set their stop loss based on their risk management strategy. You state you trade what you see but that 'sight' then becomes your 'thoughts' and you actually trade based on what you are thinking at the point in time based on information and data you have analysed up until that point. My posts are pretty open. I write what I think so my followers and readers of my posts are in no doubt of my thought process. Based on past price behaviour it is clear to see that since Christmas (past three months) the smart trade was to go long purely based on price action, indicators and trends. Thank you for responding @elle and I shall put you down for option 3.
  13. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Bitcoin clearly has the largest market cap by a considerable distance. Ether and Ripple are both 2nd and 3rd and not really much between them. Stellar seems to be dropping down to the lower side of the top ten and EOS as emerged as a real competitor to both Ether and Ripple in terms of market cap. I have attached the Cryptocurrency Market Cap link below: https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/
  14. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    What do traders and investors on IG Community think will happen should the three major US indices hit their respective 52 week high price level? Does the IG Community think they will continue to go upwards and if so why? Does the IG Community think this will present one of the biggest shorting opportunities of recent time and if so why? Does the IG Community think there will be sideways price action for a considerable period of time and if so why? I shall try and keep a score of how many of you respond to 1, 2 and 3 and see what the IG Community thinks and then what actually happens. This will be an interesting exercise that will really provide some insight to the price action expectations of the IG Community for US indices. I hope traders and investors alike partake in this. @JamesIGyou may wish to share with the IG Analysts / Staff who may wish to participate if allowed to do so. I am including @Caseynotes, @cryptotrader, @elle, @PandaFace who seems to be both active and frequent participants on the IG Community to help start kick things off but please do not wait for them to respond.
  15. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    Gold has dropped hard and fast. It has breached the $1300 level which means a bearish phase to me. Silver has dropped just as aggressively. This is with the backdrop of Brexit and India-Pakistan tensions. The stronger US dollar is not helping matters. I think the US Dollar has played a part in this deep sell off. Both Gold and Silver have gone below their 20 and 50 DMA's. Silver is awfully close to its 100 DMA and Gold is on its way there. I personally would not suggest anyone try and be clever and go 'Long' on both Gold and Silver while we are witnessing a 'Falling Knife' scenario and an aggressive drop such as this. By all means go 'Short' even if it is a short term trade but I would recommend waiting for a trend reversal confirmation before going 'Long'. This may present a better entry point to a longer term upward trend but patience and trend reversal confirmation will be key. It is possible that this large drop leads to further downside pressure or is the big correction before the next bigger leg upwards. At this moment in time I do not know which so all one can do is monitor the price action closely.
  16. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    In some ways I just wish all the bad news about Bitcoin would come out and it just makes another new low and gets to the so called $1000 - $2000 level so that the whole asset class can move on, improve and start a major long term bull move. The momentum is still there when you read: Coindesk - https://www.coindesk.com CCN (Crypto Coin News) - https://www.ccn.com Coin Telegraph - https://cointelegraph.com Warning: - Some of the articles may well contain bias. Also the credibility and accuracy could be questioned. Having stated this warning I do generally find that they are mostly correct and reported quicker than other sources.
  17. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    Based on reports I had read, I must admit two things. One I never thought the US equities would get to this price point and two - 'Never believe what you read in the media about stock market prices'. Right now one just simply cannot effectively short any of the major US indices. It is pure suicide. Trump has generally been good for the US stock market and if anything a window of buying at cheaper prices has presented investors around the world in US equities.
  18. TrendFollower

    Strong Trend for Lumber

    Is Lumber actually continuing it downward move? Lumber could either continue downwards or simple correct and continue moving upwards. It is hard to tell at this moment in time. Lumber is generally perceived as a defensive asset. It does better than other assets when markets are tumbling downwards. If house constructions are increasing then this will increase the demand for Lumber and thus leading to a higher price. Right now with potential recessions which could be faced by certain large economies around the world and political uncertainty it seems Lumber is confused and at crossroads.
  19. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    This is the biggest drop / correction to date since the bullish move in Gold started around August 2018. US Equities are driving upwards and this tends to reflect negatively on Gold prices as capital is being allocated to Equities rather than Precious Metals. Opportunity Cost as they would suggest in economic terms.
  20. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, Gold is merely seeing a sell off / correction at this most recent moment in time. If you look at the price action from August 2018 to now (past six months) then the price action has been extremely positive on the upside. I have openly stated on many occasions that I am not a fan of Gold and this example of India - Pakistan conflict and Gold not reacting like one would expect is exactly the reason why. My personal view is that the new younger generation are not going to acquire Gold like the past generations have. The future is digital assets and digital Gold and I saw glimpses of this from Asia during Trump / North Korea rhetoric a couple of years ago. They started buying Bitcoin during that period. I actually studied the days the media reported Trump / North Korea rhetoric and the price of Bitcoin and I even posted (if memory serves me correct) on IG's Community Forum highlighting such trends. Gold could continue to go up aggressively after this correction is over. I think March 2019 will be an interesting month for Gold with Brexit and US-China trade talks.
  21. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, Back home after a gruelling 13 hours away so let me try and articulate my thoughts on your question. Please remember they are just my thoughts so open for discussion. First of all the market does not always react like we think it will. Remember the market is showing us a picture around six months into the future. Also due to Gold's large / bullish rally there was bound to be plenty of profit taking, stop losses being triggered and short positions opened. Also it gives Gold a chance to test its recent higher low to potentially consolidate its next leg up if that is to occur. What I find rather interesting is how Cryptocurrency prices are reacting and holding firm with India / Pakistan conflict in mind. One must remember that Asia is a big player in Cryptocurrencies. However this is for another thread. I am just thinking and typing at the same time as I have very little time. Please accept my apologies. One would expect safe haven buying unless this is already price in of course. The biggest driver for Gold at the moment in my opinion is the US and the US Dollar of course. I would have expected such war tensions which includes India whom is known as a big Gold acquirer to really move the Gold market but we may need to see this along with a weaker US Dollar to see any significant upward price moves in Gold. I am not sure if you are aware but India is around the 2nd largest Gold consumer in the world. A lot of Gold is also smuggled into India from the likes of Sri Lanka and the Gulf. Someone in Calcutta was caught with around 10 Troy ounces beneath his hairpiece! Yes that's right hairpiece. I would expect Gold to move higher if further more serious escalation were to occur between India and Pakistan but normally this move happens in anticipation prior to any such event so this is def. one asset to keep a close eye on. Gold could see some dramatic upside were anything to be reported by the media of seriousness between India and Pakistan. Unexpected sharp rises could occur so anyone thinking of shorting could be caught out. That said if Gold was to drop below $1300 then I think we could see further selling pressure and shorts opening. Silver is already looking a lot weaker than Gold from a chartist perspective so tricky times and a tricky trade at this moment in time.
  22. TrendFollower

    Daily Candlestick Close Time

    @steve1875, I can see you logic being such a request. However some assets are 24 hours and some include different markets open during a specific time within different time zones. So you may still get some who argue it should be from 5:00 am to 4:59 am UK time which incorporates at least three timezones from US, EU and Asia. This is specifically of importance within the Cryptocurrency asset class. However to counter this I do see some merit in your suggestion as well so a tricky one. Did you have any specific assets in mind?
  23. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, an excellent question. This deserves an detailed answer but not via my iPhone. I shall respond with my thoughts when I am back home and in front of my iMac. Very good question. To be answered soon by TrendFollower on an IG Platform near you.😄
  24. If Speadbetting then your cost is included as the transactional cost is in the spreads on both the buy side and sell side. It is sort of built in but hidden nicely!
  25. TrendFollower

    Parabolic SAR Conclusions

    IG has the 'Parabolic SAR' as one of its technical indicators. This can help identify trend reversals. One can use this indicator to help set 'trailing stop losses'. One could also use it to assist in the identification of entry and exit points. I like to use it along with moving averages and RSI. A point of warning is that it can be ineffective when the price is trending sideways.
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