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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. I think this is an encouraging article for the Cryptocurrency / Blockchain area. At top schools like Wharton, students are flocking to classes on bitcoin and blockchain https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/top-schools-like-wharton-seeing-demand-for-bitcoin-blockchain-classes.html
  2. @zala, have a look at some of my threads and posts in the Commodities section if you are interested. You will see that most of my posts within the threads are based around price action and the behaviour of the asset price. I do look at fundamentals in the sense of understanding why the asset price is moving the way it is. What is the reason behind the move and what story the price action is trying to tell. I think if you just pick a few commodities that really interest you in terms of trading. Don't pick too many but just a couple of even one. Then just follow the price action daily. Follow it on your phone, follow it at home on your desktop. Follow it in the lounge on your tablet. TrendFollower Tip: Identify a commodity which breakouts to the upside to keep things nice and simple. Maybe it has gone above its 20 day moving average. Look for one that you can trade with the trend and that the balance of probability and odds of success are in your favour. At the same time research online to see why the move is occurring. Start of with a small allocation of capital to the trade. Don't worry about making a loss or failing. Get a feel and live and breathe the commodity you are trading. Remember set a stop loss so you know your exit price and maximum loss before you even enter the trade. Once in profit then set a trailing stop. Do not exit unless there is a clear trend reversal. If the price keeps going up then think about adding to your position. This is the best learning. If the trade fails and you make a loss then learn why you think the trade went against you? What could you have done differently. If you cannot identify a trade then do not enter open a position. Wait patiently until a trend emerges in a commodity that you feel comfortable trading.
  3. Trading commodities is difficult at the best of times. I am not suggesting fundamentals are not important but for me trading with the trend is one of the most important things in commodities trading. El Nino (Extreme Weather Conditions) can affect commodity prices Speculators can affect commodity prices. Bad harvests can affect commodity prices. Excessive demand can affect commodity prices. Limited supply can affect commodity prices. Excessive supply can affect commodity prices. Limited demand can affect commodity prices. Economic / political factors can affect commodity prices.
  4. There certainly is a strong trend in Lumber and it is downwards. The short trade is the only trade right now. For those who got in well done. For those who have not then be careful as Lumber is tanking far quicker than the time it took to reach its recent peak. Short trades normally last a shorter period than long trades. The chart below shows that Lumber is clearly below its 20 day, 50 day and 100 day moving averages.
  5. This is a very interesting article I read this morning. Is Bitcoin Charting a 2015-Style Price Bottom? https://www.coindesk.com/is-bitcoin-charting-a-2015-style-price-bottom/
  6. I read this article this morning and thought some of you may find it an interesting read. Here’s what the blockchain is for – and when I think bitcoin will hit a bottom https://moneyweek.com/494779/heres-what-the-blockchain-is-for-and-when-i-think-bitcoin-will-hit-a-bottom/
  7. This RNS was released yesterday afternoon at a very funny time. I only noticed it this morning. KR1 PLC is listed on the NEX Growth Market. https://www.investegate.co.uk/kr1-plc--kr1-/prn/investments/20180911141720P8EA7/
  8. I think Argo Blockchain was just over valued at IPO. There are lots of people siting on losses who invested at the IPO price. The price action is pretty negative. The latest on Argo is below: Argo Blockchain adds two new cryptocurrencies to its mining platform http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/204621/argo-blockchain-adds-two-new-cryptocurrencies-to-its-mining-platform-204621.html
  9. Bitcoin's price behaviour at the moment is very interesting. It seems to be operating in a tight trading range. I think any strong move in either direction (long / short) may well decide what the next trend is moving forwards. Which ever direction any breakout is will determine the short term trend for Bitcoin. I actually see the current price behaviour as a way to try and find a current bottom for Bitcoin. If you look from 2009 to 2018 the 'bottoms' for Bitcoin are getting higher. The article below highlights my point nicely. Bitcoin Price – High’s and Low’s Every Year Since 2009! https://www.bitguru.co.uk/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-price-high-low-since-2009/
  10. There has been lots of online media publicity recently around the XBT Provider One Bitcoin and Ether products which are ETN's and not ETF's. If you look back historically on my posts then I have clearly stated they are ETN's. I would like to think that I can offer balanced views and arguments on this thread. Please see below some of the articles in relation to this. I would just like to reiterate that the suspension is only for around 10 days or so. Bitcoin and ether tracker suspensions are 'normal' SEC reaction, says TETF CIO https://www.etfexpress.com/2018/09/10/268158/tetf-cio-comments-bitcoin-and-ether-tracker-suspension Bitcoin ETN Suspension Not a Big Deal: Securities Lawyer https://www.ccn.com/bitcoin-etn-suspension-not-a-big-deal-securities-lawyer/
  11. Remember let your winners run. Do not exit too early until there is a clear signal of a trend reversal. The article below is very interesting. Carbon Options Signal 20% Gain as Europe Nears Record Price https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-10/carbon-traders-bet-on-rally-going-much-further-options-show I think there will be an almighty shorting opportunity on Carbon Emissions in time to come.
  12. If one looks at Commodities then there have been many shorting opportunities. In fact there have been more shorting opportunities than long opportunities recently. Nickel for an example looks like an interesting short as the price is below 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. The chart below will illustrate this nicely. Nickel is not the only one. There are quite a few at the moment where there is a short trade on.
  13. Some of you will find this article rather interesting. EU carbon prices rocket http://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/low-carbon-energy/renewables/2018/eu-carbon-prices-rocket
  14. https://www.fundslibrary.co.uk/FundsLibrary.DataRetrieval/Documents.aspx?type=packet_fund_unit_doc_priip_kid&docid=e73d2b19-82c4-4208-a781-6d665dd6a3d0&user=HL-PriipKids
  15. I have posted this on another one of my threads but this specific post sits nicely on both threads to catch a larger audience. It is a short two minute video from the World Economic Forum on what is Blockchain?
  16. I am posting a short YouTube video from the World Economic Forum on what Blockchain is. It is only about two minutes but for those who are interested in this area then they may find it a well spent two minutes.
  17. A few people have asked me why am I even looking at weird things like Carbon Emissions, etc. If one follows trend following principles then it does not matter what the asset is. If there is a trend then I am interested, full stop! It could be Oil, Corn, Bitcoin, a UK Small Cap, etc. It does not matter what it is. The key question is whether there is trend that could be traded to make profits either on the long side or short side. Those who do not short miss out on a big opportunity to try and make profits. As we all know markets go both up and down. Therefore one must be comfortable shorting. If you look at commodities in general and their price action over the past 12 months then there have been more shorting opportunities over that time period of 12 months than going long opportunities.
  18. @JamesIG, thanks for this. Your post supports this thread nicely. Carbon Emissions went up 8.15% yesterday and 175 points. Add leverage to the mix and this is one of the best performing trades at the moment. It is also one of the best performing investments over the last 12 months. The trend is very strong and bullish. It is making new highs and is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages.
  19. @cryptotrader, Bitcoin is an expensive product to trade, custody, store and service at this point. The ETN has around a 3% premium so yes I accept it sounds expensive but for someone like me who does not want to physically acquire any Cryptocurrencies just yet, wants a long term position to hold then it sort of makes it a viable approach for someone like me. I accept that there will be natural decay. Also when you hold a position long term in a leveraged ETF then it is worse than holding the same leveraged position in the underlying asset. However this ETN for Bitcoin is not a leveraged product. There would far greater beta slippage in a leveraged product using say x2 or x3 leverage. The way ETN's are structured are quire complex and there could well be minimum beta slippage in this product. To answer you question I don't know the extent of any decay beta slippage on the ETN for XBT Provider One but I too would be interested in knowing if there is any. I am sure there is likely to be even slight slippage. I mean working out beta slippage is not simple. You cannot just merely calculate it from a statistics perspective. It does depend more specifically on a sequence of gains and losses. Also these ETN's may be very volatile as Bitcoin's volatility is as volatile as they come.
  20. Holding Cryptocurrencies overnight will incur an interest charge. Please see below for Litecoin. https://www.ig.com/uk/help-and-support/spread-betting-and-cfds/fees-and-charges/what-are-igs-cryptocurrencies-spread-bet-product-details I would imagine there would still be charges regardless of what currency your account was in as the overnight charges would apply regardless. @JamesIG may be able to confirm 100% but my understanding is yes if your account was in USD then the interest charges would apply.
  21. I found below on the internet. Here Are the 3 Best Free Stock Screeners https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/26/here-are-the-3-best-free-stock-screeners.aspx Best Stock Scanners and Screeners – Our Top Picks https://tradingreview.net/best-stock-scanners-and-screeners/ There are quite a lot of websites with information. You could possibly have a look and then select one which meets your personal needs.
  22. @rimmy2000, no problem. Will do. I invested in the XBT Provider One product for Bitcoin which is essential an Exchange Traded Note (ETN). It is a high risk product but I managed to invest in it when Bitcoin was around the $2,000.00 levels. I have just kept it in there as I did not want to physically own any Cryptocurrencies. I just wanted to trade them both long and short. However, this was an investment into Bitcoin using what is essential a Swedish Bitcoin ETF. You can select either EUR or SEK and there is currency risk but I have used it as a long term hold in Bitcoin. IG's Spread Betting platform is for the shorter to medium term trading opportunities on Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies.
  23. I have invested in a start up business called Pod Point and have an equity stake. If you are interested in the electric car vehicle theme then you may want to have a look at their website. I am extremely weary of resource companies jumping on the bandwagon of Lithium. There are a few on the AIM market such as Cadence Minerals, etc. My experience has told me that by the time it hits the media and newspapers are tipping shares it usually means time to exit. There will be a short rise as the 'herd' read the tips and jump in but then the smart money who have big profits exit and take their profits with them leaving losses for those still left in. I have seen this time and time again so I would not read too much into the likes of the Sunday Telegraph article. Also your capital can sit in a resource company for years and even after 10 years you may make a return but when you annualise the return it is normally pretty poor and you could have allocated that very same capital elsewhere and made a better return in a shorter time.