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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. TrendFollower

    Trading US Stocks within an ISA

    @kpnuts, I do not have an ISA with IG but through my provider I do believe I can invest in US shares (need to submit W8-BEN). I can only assume you can do the same with IG as I have not seen or read anything to suggest it cannot be done. It will only be those US shares available on IG's platform so it may not include US Small and US Micro Caps.
  2. TrendFollower

    Just Starting out

    @Money_Hunter, It really depends on what asset you want to trade and how much leverage you want to use. This will determine your margin requirements. You can test this by 'Buying' or 'Selling' at the minimum per point (UK Spread betting) to see how much margin you would require for that specific trade. As a minimum, my understanding is that you have to deposit at least £250.00 if from the UK. I am not sure which country you are from so there may be different rules for different jurisdictions around the world. @JamesIG, another example of where my idea of the national flag would be both helpful and useful. Is there any update in terms of where IG are on this idea of mine?
  3. TrendFollower

    Trend Following by TrendFollower

    @Dantro & @Dantro, May I ask what assets you are trading or looking to trade?
  4. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    US 100 (Nasdaq 100) has taken out the lowest mountain point of the three points. It is now looking to surpass the second mountain point. US 500 (S&P 500) it trying to take out the lowest mountain point of the three points but is struggling to surpass and stay about it. Wall Street (Dow Jones) has also taken out the lowest mountain point of the three points. It is now looking to surpass the second mountain point. With US-China trade talk extensions being discussed this week will be very interesting in terms of price action as it is reported that such extensions may already be priced into the markets.
  5. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    From a chartist perspective it seems Gold and Silver are gearing up for the next leg up this week. With US-China trade extension talks it may well just allow this to happen.
  6. TrendFollower

    Trailing Losses

    @Dantro & @Dantro, Apologies but there are x2 Dantro's coming up when using the @ sign. I am not sure which country you are from as there may be different functionality on IG platforms throughout different jurisdictions around the world. I am from the UK and operate on IG's platform in the UK. I have just checked my UK Spreadbetting account and I get three options on stop losses which are: Normal Guaranteed Trailing So trailing is def. an option on IG's UK Spreadbetting platform. I would not want to trade trends without it.
  7. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Well Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies never fail to disappoint! Normal service has resumed and a mammoth 300+ point drop in Bitcoin. EOS is down over 16% which tells me that it is speculators that are running the show on this asset class rather than real hardcore investors and investment firms. The question now is whether the big drop and the new low is coming which makes a good shorting opportunity or is this just a correction before the next upward leg resumes? This asset class is as risky as they get. They make Commodity Trading look low risk! LOL 😀
  8. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    @akatyk, You may be right but for those who opened when Bitcoin was trading in the $3000's have already made a nice profit. If you then add leverage to the mix then even more profit. One could have argued the same with US indices but they kept on going up and up and are still going up. Markets do not always conform to the emotions and principles that traders believe in. If you take personal opinions, beliefs and emotions out of the equation and base it purely on price action then Bitcoin and Crypto's have to be considered. If you feel that it is a relief rally or false breakout, then fine, your stop loss will allow you to exit either at a profit or small loss. You are right you should absolutely think twice or even three times before opening a new position and next week will be an interesting week for Cryptos and a lot more will be revealed. What is your basis for thinking that there are no current opportunities and you think only previous ones will play out? You may be right and I am not disagreeing with you but what is your basis for this? Is it just based on historical trends and price action? Is it history which is determining your view? If so then it would be so difficult to enter any trades if they had not performed as per historical notions. I am just offering a balanced view and a counter argument though I do understand and to a certain degree even agree with your assessment based on this specific moment in time. My basis for not entering a new trade on Bitcoin would be due to the way the moving averages are sloping. For me they are not sloping upwards so I would wait until at least the 20 and 50 DMA were and the 100 DMA was either sideways or starting to slop upwards. Litecoin is proving to be the most aggressive in its positive upward price action and its moving averages curves are sloping the most positive out of all the Cryptocurrencies that IG offers on its platforms at the moment. I am attaching the chart to illustrate this to the IG Community.
  9. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    @akatyk, Bitcoin hit $4207.10 overnight. I now want to see how Bitcoin's price behaves. Does it go for an aggressive move towards $6500.00 with a few small corrections along the way or will it be slow and steady rising? It is difficult not to let past performance cloud your judgement so most will be expecting Bitcoin to drop further based on historical trends over the past 12 months and more. My advice is just to trade the current price action with a stop loss in place. Trade the trend and exit when the trend reverses. If it does not then ride the trend until it reverses.
  10. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    I have mentioned this before but the weekend does encounter major moves in Cryptocurrencies when they are trending up. I noticed this a couple of years ago. I had to keep my positions open on Friday as otherwise I would have missed some major gains. This is an extremely high risk strategy so I would not encourage anyone to do this but I did this in all my madness but reaped the rewards with some excellent returns. Very high risk and dangerous but for the serious Cryptocurrency traders it is worth bearing in mind when they are trending up strongly.
  11. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Bitcoin has crossed that psychological $4000.00 mark and hit $4151.70. If it can cross $4200.00 then things are really going to start getting interesting as the bulk of the downside has been done. Yes there could be a new low and we may see $2000 or so but the large chunk of the downside activity has occurred in my personal opinion. For me now going forwards the key is whether Bitcoin surpasses the $4200 level and stays above it. If it does then it is going to target at some point in 2019 the $6500.00 level. The price action will now either validate my assumption by its price behaviour or invalidate it.
  12. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @elle, An interesting watch. This is an excellent example of why not to trade against the trend which is clearly up at the moment unless you are looking at a yearly timeframe!!!
  13. TrendFollower

    Trend Following by TrendFollower

    @Dantro, My personal basis is to start with the daily and then compare it to the weekly and monthly. Only then do I look at lower timeframes and primarily 4 hour to 1 hour timeframes to establish if in sync with direction of trend. I only use lower timeframes for day trading or short term trades. When I am trend following then I am looking at the longer timeframes more as I am going to keep the position open until the trend changes. If there are any big drops and the trade has clearly gone against me then my stop loss should have triggered and executed an exit from the trade. I always know my exit price before I enter the trade. This is a key part of my trading strategy. When I am in profit then I switch to a trialing stop so I know I cannot make a loss in that trade. I have no issues re entering that trade should trend confirmation take place. I am comfortable entering the trade as many times as I need to but at the same time I am happy to move on to the next trend should any trend confirmation not be established. I try not to trade against the trend.
  14. TrendFollower

    Trading

    To add to some of @Caseynotes points above I would like to add some key ingredients which are essential for all traders even before they get to the list mentioned above: This is a list which I have created so it will not be found in any text books or social media.: Passion, Enthusiasm and Dedication for Trading Willingness to put the effort and hard work in to learning about trading Continuous Improvement in Reading and Researching (R&R) - Continuous Learning Identifying which assets to trade and focus on and developing a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system I think we all can come up with different lists in different order and there is no given correct list in the correct sequence but I personally believe that with out my list above it makes it very difficult to complete the list in @Caseynotes post.
  15. TrendFollower

    Global Brands

    Very interesting. Will Bitcoin as a brand be anywhere in the next 15 years?
  16. TrendFollower

    Trading

    @Caseynotes & @EMDE, I agree with @Caseynotespost above. @EMDE it is much harder than the article tries to demonstrate. If it were easy then we all would be doing it extremely successfully. It is hard and requires lots of effort, price monitoring, trend monitoring, etc. Using a longer term timeframe in my opinion is the easy bit when applying the MTF approach. What is difficult is when you begin analysing LTF's and this is where it starts becoming tricky due to volatility, false breakouts and false trend reversals, etc. However, it can be done and there are many who apply this successfully when executed well. If think the key for me personally is to ensure when looking at the LTF's then it is clearly aligned with the HTF's. I always try to ensure this when using a MTF approach as even if short term the trade goes against you then (based on stop loss distance) it can always recover as you are trading with the longer term timeframe trend.
  17. TrendFollower

    Trying to transfer ISA out but no response

    @Caseynotes, Yes good point. I remember I had to do something similar when I transferred my ISA a few years back.
  18. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    If the trend strength continues in the same manner with Gold, it could potentially see anywhere between $1360 - $1380 being hit by end of April 2019. This is an assumption based on current trend strength and momentum. For Silver I can see the $16.50 to $17.00 level could be potentially met by end of April 2019 if the trend continued in the same vein. However, Silver seems to be weakening more so than Gold so I def. see Silver as a more risker trade than Gold. It will have more volatile price movements (so for short term or day trading may be better). Gold is the less riskier and less volatile trade for a longer term perspective. Again this is an assumption based on current trend strength and momentum which is looking more weaker than Gold. I try to use assumption based modelling techniques and try and make assumptions which I then test using the price actions and trends that follow. There is absolutely nothing wrong is making assumptions and then testing them. This is a form of 'forward testing' which I actually thinks adds far more value than simply a pure 'backtesting' strategy. If I really want to see how effective my trading system is then I think it is crucial to have some form of 'forward testing'. Both backtesting and forward testing by themselves have flaws. By using them both when devising a trading system for a particular asset can be more beneficial. Offering a balanced view it must be noted that even by doing this does not guarantee any success of profits. It merely increases your knowledge, experience, understanding and odds/probability in executing successful trades.
  19. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    At this point I have a feeling that the US indices are looking to make new 52 week highs. The trend is very strong and has a bullish uptrend bias. One can always look for potential shorting opportunities in almost any asset that can be traded. It is not difficult for one to suggest that there is a potential shorting opportunity and give reasons why they think that. The market does not always confirm to economic theory, market expectations, expert analysis / interpretation, technical analysis, etc. Traders do not have a crystal ball in terms of knowing what will happen six months in the future. The market is a crystal ball as it is telling its participants and painting a picture of what it can see six months in the future (market discounting mechanism). I have been wrong so far in looking at a potential shorting opportunity in the US indices. When I made my assumptions there was a strong bias downwards and a strong move downwards did occur but then after this we all can see what happened. My assumptions were tested and proved incorrect. That is fine. That is how one can learn and gain valuable experience for future trades. The key was I cut my losses quickly and exited, minimising my losses. It would be ironic if we now see a monster downward move! It can happen but the one thing I keep telling myself if never go against the trend regardless of what I think or what my personal emotions and beliefs are. Never trade against the trend.
  20. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Bitcoin is holding up rather well. If Bitcoin was to surpass the $4200.00 level then I think I would have to consider manually intervening and possibly closing my short. I still think the $6500.00 level is the crucial price point which will confirm a trend reversal. I have just quickly whipped up a chart with some illustrations as there are times when a visual message can say more things than lots of words. I have tried to keep the chart, SIMPLE, CLEAR and STRAIGHTFORWARD (SCS).
  21. TrendFollower

    Trading

    @EMDE, This is why it is advised that new traders stick to a specific timeframe and then trade only that timeframe rather than switching between them as it can only confuse them. Are you a day trader, short term trader, medium term trader or long term trader? There are no given rules that suggest charts should run in correlation with each other. In reality they do not which is what makes trading difficult and entry points very tricky indeed. I cannot tell you what you should do as I do not know if you have a trading plan, trading strategy or even a trading system. The answer to your question should be somewhere in this or at least the information which can give you the answer. I follow 'Trend Following' principles so I stay in the position as long as the trend is in place. This could be one day, one week, one month or even one year. I have no timescale in place in terms of exiting apart from when the trend reverses and my stop loss is triggered. Therefore as long as you trade with the trend rather than against it then in theory (it is only theory) should enhance your odds on success against failure (does not guarantee) and increase the probability of a profitable trade but again I repeat there are no guarantees. Try using oscillators, moving averages, momentum, volume and trend strength to assist you in making an informed decision on entry points. There is no magic answer or solution that will work on finding entry points on every trade regardless of asset as otherwise trading would become far easier. In reality trading is extremely difficult and even the best traders will make losses and get entry points in trades wrong. I have learnt over the years that whatever strategy you adopt it must increase your odds and probability in the trade so to use parameters, signals and indicators that can help you with this.
  22. TrendFollower

    Trying to transfer ISA out but no response

    @yogitree, This seems like a bad level of customer service to me. I do not know IG's internal customer service policies and how they both manage and execute them but it really should not be difficult or time consuming in todays time to switch ISA's. I am not sure why you have to fill in an AML when looking to switch. I can understand why you would have to if you were opening a new ISA as the provider would need to be satisfied that the capital has not been derived from ill gotten gains. However you have been holding your funds with IG so surely they would have completed the AML process at the start of your journey with them, not at the end! This is like allowing a criminal to deposit criminal proceeds into a bank, pay them interest on this and then after a few years when they are looking to withdraw this capital, asking them where the money originated from!!! @JamesIG, are you able to assist @yogitree?
  23. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    There are two things which one must consider that is happening in relation to the Bitcoin price behaviour and Crypto's in general available on IG's platform. One is that a bottom has been confirmed and we are witnessing the beginning of an upward trend. The second is that this is just like all the previous rallies that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and is the relief 'sucker' rally which will then lead to a new low or at the very least test the all time low. Lots of different experts are suggesting different things and I have no idea who is right or who is wrong. I cannot simply rely on the online media community and publications to make a judgement or informed trading decision. Therefore I must use technical indicators to help me establish if new higher lows and new higher highs are being formed. I need to satisfy myself that a trend reversal has been confirmed. I need to use the moving averages to tell me whether a trend is in play. I need to look at the strength of the trend and momentum to tell me whether this is genuinely bullish or just plain old bull poo. Even if it is the start of a bull move and I miss out by not getting in near the bottom then as someone who follows trend following principles that is fine. It is about catching the bulk of the move in the middle so right now it is too early to enter the Crypto and Bitcoin trade on the 'long' side unless you are merely speculating, gambling, hoping or of course you are a short term trader or day trader which is actually then fine to trade Bitcoin and Cryptos on the long side.
  24. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, From a fundamental perspective there will be supply/demand implications. So output from SA is declining. Add uneconomic uncertainty and then price action / trends and you have a 'perfect cocktail / storm' for an aggressive trend and price behaviour upwards. I accept it does not always play out like this due to speculation, contrarian moves and aggressive short selling creating intense volatility but the potential is there for a major move upwards in Gold.
  25. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    It seems Bitcoin is going to go for that psychological $4000 mark which it has failed to break through on the past couple of occasions. The fact that Bitcoin has not dropped and is trying again makes me wonder whether it may do so once the US markets open or overnight and possibly during the weekend. When I used to trade Bitcoin a couple of years ago the amount of big moves that came during the weekend was staggering. It got to a stage where I had to leave a long position open on Friday 10:00 pm to reap the rewards on Sunday night when the market re-opened. The trading times have changed since then but a I noticed quite a few very big moves occurring during the weekend. I do not advise traders to leave positions open overnight or take on such large risk but that is what I had to do as otherwise I was missing all the big weekend moves. Of course it went wrong on a couple of occasions so it was a very high risk play and 'gapping' was a serious issue but I no longer trade Bitcoin in that way anymore.
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