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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Weakness in Lumber prices is potentially a warning indicator and 'Red Flag' for me in terms of economic activity. Now it is no surprise that major US indices and indeed other major indices around the world have seen some downward price activity. Has Lumber bottomed? I do not know but any move upwards towards $40k may indicate that it has. However, if trouble strikes in the US and its economic activity begins to decline then we could see further downside to Lumber prices. This is not out of the question.
  2. Bitcoin since 1st January 2019 to date has gained more than around 84%, outperforming most traditional asset classes and commodities. It seems that the Bitcoin price has moved from a parabolic stage to vertical thus raising the possibility of the Bitcoin price rising from $6,300 to over $7,000. $7,000 is now looking like it is on the cards shortly. Yes there will be largish pullbacks but $7,000 is coming. For me Bitcoin seems to be in a Bull Market right now unless there is any counter evidence to suggest otherwise. One must not forget the potential of a short squeeze. Bitcoin was being heavily shorted and if the shorts have to liquidate their positions then what do you all think is going to happen to the price of Bitcoin? Now imagine if these same traders who liquidate their shorts then initiate new long positions again what do you all think is going to happen to the price of Bitcoin?
  3. Right here goes. Lots of people have messaged me stating surely Cryptocurrencies are going to fall and what is different this time. Where do I start? First of all, Cryptocurrencies as an asset class has been confirmed and is establishing itself so right now it does not seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. Bitcoin has not crashed and gone down to zero. Bitcoin has not even gone down to the $2k levels or $1k levels these so called experts and credible people were suggesting. This highlights how dangerous the media really is. On what evidence were they suggesting that Bitcoin would go down to $2k and $1k levels? 'MARKET NOISE. Likewise Bitcoin has not gone up to the $50k and $100k levels that others pro Bitcoin supporters were suggesting. Again this 'Market Noise' works both ways when presenting arguments and predictions. The price action which is what is happening currently and what is happening now is the best and most important indicator. The future has not been written but the path and destination of the future can change at any point when it comes to price behaviour of an asset. The future is not a given or written in stone. The future does not have to be the same as the past. There is no rule on earth which suggests this must be the case. The trend is strong The trend is bullish The price action is positive Halving Event & what has happened in previous Halving Events Increased momentum and traction in Bitcoin and the asset class Institutional Investors like Fidelity coming on board India is still on the sidelines and should it come on board the journey then this light a fire below Bitcoin. If the US were to approve an ETF for Bitcoin then this too could send Bitcoin way above current price levels. There is nothing wrong in being negative about Bitcoin or Cryptocurrencies but those who think it is going to zero and is garbage need to offer far more compelling reasons and articulate reasoned arguments for their views rather than simply something they have read on the online media which they are blindly following or repeating. Online media can be biased both ways pro Bitcoin and against Bitcoin. From a trading perspective if you put the FUNDAMENTALS to one side and just look at the price action then there is a very strong trend to trade. Full Stop. Is anything else trending stronger with greater momentum right now in other asset classes? What other major asset has outperformed Bitcoin since 1st January 2019?
  4. Bitcoin is now showing for me a more clearer and decisive trend reversal pattern / confirmation. Traders who were short Bitcoin should have liquidated their position and taken their profits. For me now there is a bullish upward trend in Bitcoin which has been confirmed by the price behaviour. I am going to include the latest 'Parabolic SAR' indicator from the 'daily' below: The price is clearly well above the dots indicating a very bullish trend reversal and a very bullish upward pattern. Yes Bitcoin could face a little bit of resistance along the way and large pullbacks which are expected of course with plenty of volatility but Bitcoin is the asset which is really delivering on returns at the moment. Bitcoin is outperforming most other assets hands down from the start of this year to date. Those who are negative and think Bitcoin is going to zero must put their personal emotions and bias to one side and trade the opportunity in front of them rather than be stubborn and keep on stating Bitcoin is rubbish and Bitcoin is going to zero, etc. Bitcoin may find a bit of resistance at the $7.3k level and then $8.2k level but these will be the targets Bitcoin will aim for going forwards. Bitcoin is also showing another important factor. It seems to move big over the weekend periods. I have experienced such moves over the past few years so this is not uncommon for me. Some of you may have been taken by surprise over this move but if you have been following Cryptocurrencies for a few years then you will appreciate that this is now considered pretty much normal and expected. They move like this when you least expect them to move. This is another reason why if your stop losses are too tight then you will be regularly stopped out and miss lots of these opportunities. Setting effective stop losses is a key part of trading Cryptocurrencies. I do not have the magic answer as everyone's risk tolerance is different but from my experience stop losses cannot be too tight when trading Cryptocurrencies as otherwise you will just be left with loss after loss. Also when you are in profit you must set a trailing stop to ensure you leave the position with a profit. Cryptocurrencies can take your profit away as quick as it gives your profit.
  5. Bitcoin Cash is up nearly 10% at the time of writing this post. Of course Bitcoin started this most recent rally but it is the usual suspects of Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash that are leading the race today. Also looking at the 'daily' then it seems there is a clear run towards $400 on the cards here. Not much resistance to worry about prior to this so it could be a short and sharp move towards $400. Of course this may not materialise and could fail but it is looking both positive and bullish for Bitcoin Cash to really go for $400.
  6. Litecoin is up 11% at the time of writing this post. I stated it would be interesting to see if Litecoin could move above $80 in previous post (above) and boy has it. Looking at the chart there is a strong possibility that on the next leg up it targets $100.
  7. @dmedin, I would think more in terms of what can you do in terms if identification work, using indicators and signals to come up with your own suggestions. Then look to see if they are similar or different and try and find out why?
  8. Litecoin is leading the way this morning and is up 5.31% at the time of this post. It will be interesting to see if this can move above $80.
  9. It is 08:57 am UK time and Bitcoin Cash seems primed for a breakout and push upwards. The 1 hour chart seems to be syncing with the daily chart. Let us see what happens for the rest of today.
  10. Bitcoin hit $6335.50 overnight. It is over 3% up at the time of writing this post. It is going strong. It is approaching some key support zones and the question is whether it will struggle and battle through or whether it is just going to blitz through with strength. I do not know but we are about to find out. It also seems that the disconnect may reverse and the 'Alt Coins' may follow Bitcoin's path albeit they are playing catch up. However, it is not unusual for some of these 'Alt Coins' to return double digit percentage returns in one day or even one evening!
  11. There seems to be a disconnect forming between Bitcoin and the 'Alt Coins' that are available on IG's platform. Bitcoin seems to be leading the way upwards and the others do not seem to be following this path.
  12. @dmedin, Several things. You may not time any trades correctly or do not trade with the trend. Your stop loss management may be ineffective to deal with the extreme volatility so you keep on getting stopped out with losses. I could go on and on. There are lots of things that could possibly go wrong. Make no mistake, trading Cryptocurrencies, is extremely high risk.
  13. There you go. Bitcoin is trading at the time of this post at $6063.43. It hit overnight $6113.70. I think Bitcoin will face a fair bit of resistance when looking at the 'daily' going forwards and it is going to be hard to surpass $6.5k but if it does which is looking more likely now than it was say a month ago then there could be a very important longer term trend change for me. This is a very important period coming in relation to the price behaviour of Bitcoin. I do also wonder if capital is flowing out of Stocks and Commodities and moving into the Cryptocurrency space and primarily Bitcoin? I do not know but I do wonder if this is happening.
  14. Some of you may find this both interesting and useful.
  15. CTAs continue positive run led by trend-following strategies https://www.hedgeweek.com/2019/05/08/275572/ctas-continue-positive-run-led-trend-following-strategies
  16. @JamesIG, I have mentioned this before but I think the time has truly come where if one is going to spend considerable time, effort and energy in participating, adding value, contributing and sharing on the IG Community thus enhancing it then the Esteemed Contributors must be able to monetise their huge efforts. These Esteemed Contributors will have built up followers and will continue to increase their followers. They will have many visitors reading their profiles and their community reputation will continue increasing as will their content count. This has to be monetised in some form. Now whether this is in FIAT currency or some form of IG Coin / IG Token which can be converted into FIAT currency only on IG's platform to be traded is up to IG. It may have a better solution but something needs to happen. Can you please take this request higher up within IG to see if this can be considered seriously. @TrendFollower
  17. @Caseynotes, I agree totally. There are a lot of traders that do not have 'Trading Principles' or a 'Trading Philosophy'. So for example I follow 'Trend Following' principles albeit tweaked to suit my personality. I follow 'Price Action' and make trading decisions based on trends and price action. This is my trading philosophy. I accept this is a simplified explanation and I could go into moire intricate detail but that is for another time and another thread. There are far too many traders on the IG Community where it is difficult to ascertain what their trading principles are and what their trading philosophy is. This means they are trading 'willy nilly' and hoping to catch a trend or hoping to make short term gains based on what they have read or been told, etc. There is very little evidence of a trading system being used. For example a trading system does not have to be complicated. I see very little talk about signals and indicators apart from the usual suspects on the IG Community. A trading system can be as simple as we want it to be. A lot of people think that a trading system must be complex. It does not have to be. It all depends on the type of trading strategies you are going to adopt to help execute your trading plan which will contain your trading goals. The discussion on whether to use a Spread Betting account, CFD account or even a Share broking account comes later but first you must have a clear and defined plan. You must know which strategy you are going to adopt to meet that plan. Only then can you develop a trading system and it is this trading system that will lead you to choosing either a CFD account, Spread Betting account, Shares account, Futures account or a combination of all or some of them depending on the different assets you choose to trade.
  18. This is very interesting. SEC Will Host A Forum About Blockchain And Cryptocurrencies End Of May https://www.forbes.com/sites/yoavvilner/2019/05/08/sec-will-host-a-forum-about-blockchain-and-cryptocurrencies-end-of-may/
  19. Bitcoin currently has a market cap over $100 billion. This is in line with Uber potentially after the first day of trading after the IPO according to IG. https://coinmarketcap.com As you can see from the link above, Bitcoin, is clearly well ahead with Ethereum in second. Ethereum is closely followed by Ripple and then there is a race between Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and EOS. Stellar seems to have lost some of its momentum which it showed last year.
  20. @Caseynotes, I know it is difficult to compare like for like when dealing with two different beasts in share accounts and spread betting. However if you are not going to have a stop loss on the shares account and merely buy and hold then this needs to be replicated on the spread betting when conducting any 'compare and contrast' exercise. Otherwise it is not a fair fight! In reality you would set a trailing stop on a spread betting position to ensure you exit with a profit and not a loss. Equally you would set a stop loss when going long and buying shares via a share broking account. I think there is a lot of bad publicity around Spread Betting and at times rightly so. It is also down to the amount of traders / gamblers losing lots of money. Spread Betting can be a very useful mechanism to enhance profits but there has to be a coherent trading strategy behind it which is both robust and effective. This is where a lot of traders fail. They simply do not put the time and effort in to learn their trade and just want to copy and emulate these 'pop ups' online who sell them this easy method of trading to make profits which simply does not exist. If trading was easy then lots of people would be trading and making lots of money consistently. Trading is easy. Trading profitably on a consistent basis is extremely difficult.
  21. This is a fascinating article that I would like to share. Blockchain Transaction Overpowers PayPal Transactions https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/blockchain-transaction-overpowers-paypal-transactions-201905080250
  22. @nit2wynit, I agree with something @Caseynotes posted earlier which is to try it on a demo account. Also if you are not going to have a stop loss on the shares then try not having a stop loss on the demo account. Also you can short on the demo spread betting account which you cannot on the shares account. I just checked and on Pininterst if you bet £1.00 a point then the margin required is £730.75. It is up 57 points at the time of writing and therefore there was the potential of £57.00 profit for today. The question is whether you would have made more had you physically held shares with the same movement in one day. I think you should use the demo spread betting account and test some trades and different strategies and really understand the advantages and disadvantages to spread betting. At least you seem to be thinking about it seriously and putting the time and effort in so well done for that.
  23. I just came across this article which is rather relevant to my post above. Beyond Meat: This Stock Bubble Could Mirror the Bitcoin Crash https://www.ccn.com/beyond-meat-this-stock-bubble-could-mirror-the-bitcoin-crash
  24. There seems to be some support at the 3.00 price as the chart below illustrates. London-Listed Argo Blockchain Adds 1,000 Miners in Bid to Salvage Stock Price https://www.coindesk.com/london-listed-argo-blockchain-adds-1000-miners-in-bid-to-salvage-stock-price
  25. At some point Beyond Meat is going to tank in my opinion as the valuation is extremely high and there is going to be a lot of profit taking and shorting which is going to amplify any move downwards.
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