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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @elle, yes that is right and the price action supports this stance.
  2. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    I was looking at the Gold chart and the one thing I have noticed since the 'bottom' on Thursday 16th August 2018 is that Gold has been making 'higher lows' and to a certain degree 'higher highs' though the lower lows have been more stronger than the higher highs. Now a potential Gold trade could be that when the next higher low is formed to open a long trade with a stop loss around the $1200 area to ensure volatility does not stop you out unnecessarily. I think a price to go long around the $1220 - $1225 area could be achievable and also an attractive entry point. I see Gold trying to attempt the $1243.00 area which would bring it nicely towards the 200 day moving average price. This is something that I myself will be considering as Gold is currently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is my indicator/signal to start getting interested. I am never convinced with the potential points / profits on offer with Gold and I do not at this point envisage a big move in Gold which is the reason why I have not yet pulled the trigger on such a trade. For me to personally be interested in this trade I would need to apply some serious leverage to maximise the profit potential as I just do not see a big move yet in Gold. It could happen in the months or years to come but right now I am not sure. I could be wrong and Brexit could start a domino effect but I do think Gold has the potential based on the current price action to certainly go for the $1243 area which could be a nice short term trade. I have included a diagram below where I have highlighted the 'lower lows' and slightly weaker 'higher highs' below. The circle at the end is where I am envisaging the price to hit at some point in December / January should this trend continue. I think there is a potential short term 'Long' trade here in Gold and though I am not a fan of Gold based on point / profit potential, I think I could get interested when applying leverage to maximise any profits in such a trade.
  3. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @elle, Would you be kind enough to expand?
  4. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @OceansJess, Yes you are right. Gold is doing something and that is going up in price since August 2018. It is making new 'higher lows' and new 'higher highs'. The trend is firmly upwards and it would be a good time to consider going long but you may wish to wait until the next drop/correction for a better entry point but that is your decision to make. You can by all means ask your friend who bought the physical gold and establish what they actually know about Gold? Where do they store it and what are the costs associated with the physical purchase and storage? In terms of how high Gold will go then no one can answer this question and certainly not me. None of us have a crystal ball and none of us can predict the future. In my personal opinion I think it will clear $1350 short term. Medium term it will clear $1355.91 but long term I do not know. It could go as high as it wants depending on the economic events that take shape around the world. From my personal experience big bullish trends love psychological points and round numbers to surpass so longer term $1500.00 could be a target should things get worse around the world. For me it is just about letting my winners run and only exiting once the trend has firmly reversed and not until then.
  5. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    Wow Gold finished strongly on around $1240 level. I sense it will hit $1250 very quickly.
  6. To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin. At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4 hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections. As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying.
  7. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    I would like to see Bitcoin test $6470 level. The one thing to see now is whether the price behaviour of Bitcoin allows it to make new higher lows and new higher highs. Though I am not a fan of Gold (disclaimer - am trading both Gold and Silver at the moment) it shows an excellent example of a trend emerging (still in strong play) creating lovely higher lows and higher highs as it trended upwards. That is what I would like to see in Bitcoin but I still fear there could be one more large correction to come.
  8. The US 500 which is the (S&P 500) is an attractive potential shorting opportunity. As many of you know I like to be as open and transparent as possible. I like to keep things simple and really add significant value to the IG Community with real live trades. I have today opened a short position on the US 500 at 2506.91 via IG's Spread Betting platform. I should get daily credit interest as well - 😉 Why did I pick this to short ahead of the other indices? Well first of all it has lower margin requirements than other indices. This is extremely important when one is adding to short positions as the price continues to move downwards thus trying to maximise profits. Also the trends seem similar when comparing it to the Dow so why use up extra capital on margin requirements? Again I am sharing some of my live trades with the IG Community and will share my views, thinking and rationale behind any decisions. I will not hide behind complex analysis and complex theory that many may find difficult to follow or understand.
  9. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @Caseynotes, I agree with your US macro sentiment. It looks like the sideways activity that I assumed is beginning to show signs of possibility. I agree that the US-China trade situation is going to move the US indices one way or the other and we should find out in the coming weeks. I do think that the upward trend is weakening and seems exhausted. It may give one final push before pausing before any critical news that moves it strongly either up or down.
  10. I do not expect anyone to agree with my views but I wanted to start a discussion on which cryptocurrencies are really worth anything in society, within businesses and in economies around the world. For me Bitcoin will eventually become the 'digital gold'. It may take another 10-20 years but Bitcoin is the 'grandfather' of the cryptocurrency universe. It will not die. It will adapt, scale, improve and do whatever it needs to survive based on what the regulations and legislations end up being. If I believe this then I simply do not see the point of Bitcoin Gold. I think if Bitcoin could do the things necessary then it could enhance itself to remove the need for even Bitcoin Cash. Bitcoin for me has 'first mover advantage'. It is the most well known cryptocurrency and has the largest market cap by far. I simply cannot imagine that Bitcoin will not be around in say 5 years time. For me it is not going to zero as otherwise all this effort worldwide will be for nothing. The current people backing Bitcoin and the large players involved will make Bitcoin succeed in some form or another and for me that form is a digital store of value. I like Ethereum as it offers a different proposition. If you go back to 2015 then when the blockchain was launched it has no tooling and no infrastructure. Look at it now. I think after Bitcoin, Ethereum is the next one which I think will survive all the government interference or is more likely to. I think its offering of smart contracts and higher adoption rate puts it in a stronger position that its competitors. The potential is huge. For me Bitcoin and Ethereum are the big boys and market leaders. Full stop. I don't get Litecoin. It was a fork of Bitcoin but I cannot think of a reason to invest in it. There is a reason to invest in Bitcoin and Ethereum but Litecoin? Yes it may have faster transactions speeds but this is something that Bitcoin can overcome in time. I appreciate Ripple gave some of us absolutely ridiculous returns but it is not a decentralised cryptocurrency. I favour Stellar Lumens ahead of Ripple. This is only my personal view but I think Ripple will become something that Governments feel more comfortable using. Therefore, I would consider backing the company (Ripple) rather than the coin itself. If Ripple is deemed a security rather than a commodity then I think Ripple is on shaky ground. I think over time the company that owns the coin Ripple will offer a more compelling reason to invest. What do people within the IG Community think? I have stuck my neck out and presented my views whether you all agree with them or not. I have presented my opinions to the IG audience. Do any of you have any other views which may be different to mine but can be supported by compelling reasons and strong arguments that can make me seriously think differently? I have an open mind when it comes to cryptocurrencies and blockchain and my thinking will adapt and change as things move from one side to another.
  11. TrendFollower

    Strong Ethereum - Litecoin & Ripple Weak

    @cryptotrader, The longer term downtrend in Ether and other Cryptocurrencies is still firmly in play and we have all seen such rallies before. For Ether, the 100 and 200 DMA are sloping 'sharply downwards'. The 50 DMA is sloping sideways and the 20 DMA is beginning to slope upwards. For me this may be a short term relief rally but the price action will tell us very soon.
  12. TrendFollower

    UK REAL ESTATE

    @cryptotrader, You may wish to have a look at this article from the Guardian: UK house prices fall at fastest rate in six years on back of Brexit – Rics https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years-on-back-of-brexit-rics You may also wish to read this articles below too: UK house prices: Brexit wipes 25 per cent off value in wealthiest areas https://inews.co.uk/news/uk-house-prices-brexit-latest-property-market-values/ How a no-deal Brexit will affect house prices, according to property experts https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/no-deal-brexit-how-affect-house-prices-uk-consequences-explained/ UK has not officially even hit a recession yet. UK has not officially concluded Brexit yet. This is just merely based on uncertainty and anticipation of negativity. Also the tax rules on Buy-To-Let has changed meaning what was a very attractive prospect now is not as attractive. I am not suggesting that houses prices will definitely drop. The simple truth is I do not know. However if I wanted to invest in a property investment trust then I would want to get some serious value so that I can maximise my capital growth and for this I would want to see the bottom (from charts) confirmed and an uptrend before investing my hard earned capital into such an investment vehicle for real estate.
  13. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @psycho, I am responding to your Bullion Vault question on another thread in my own thread which I created as I do not want to clash with the creators of other threads. I have strong opinions and I am not scared to post them even when I may be wrong. To answer your question, yes I would have conducted some form of due diligence back in 2006 - 2008 period where I invested in Gold via Bullion Vault. From memory I paid charges for them storing it so I never took physical delivery. This was a long time ago so I hope you can appreciate my sketchy memory! They are a big player in this industry and in my opinion at the time reliable and trustworthy. I cannot comment about recent reputation as I have not used them for over 10 years. I am sure they have got bigger and more reputable but you would have to check.
  14. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    There you go Silver has woke up and now following Gold’s lead. As the margin requirements are higher on Silver than Gold (more or less double) rather than trade both one could trade Gold with increased leverage.
  15. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    There seems to be a disconnect between Gold and Silver which is rather interesting. Silver does not want to play with Gold today!
  16. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    What is interesting is that Bitcoin has crossed its 20 and 50 DMA's but they are both sloping sideways which suggests a possible consolidation period. It is on the 100 DMA as we speak and both 100 & 200 DMA's are sloping downwards so it is still firmly in a downtrend. For me there is no confirmation of a trend reversal yet even though it has been rallying hard over the past few days.
  17. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    When looking at the 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages for Gold then the 20, 50 and 100 are all sloping upwards and the 200 is sloping sideways. This to me suggests a strong trend and if and when the 200 begins sloping upwards along with the others it will be in the midst of a a very strong rally. Silver however is behaving like it is confused whether to behave like an industrial commodity, precious metal or even both. 50 and 100 DMA's are sloping upwards. So too is the 20 DMA but it is beginning to slope slightly sideways. The 200 DMA is sloping downwards. If you look at Silver's longer term timeframe then you can see that it could be argued that it is still in a longer term downtrend with a shorter term bias upwards at the moment. It would need to hit around the $17.00 level for this to change. Gold on the other hand would need to surpass the $1350 level for it to force the 200 DMA to begin changing course.
  18. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    When looking at all three major US indices it seems the trend is weakening. I felt this before but then the trend just resumed upwards. The main difference on this occasion is that it is very close to the 'critical point juncture' as highlighted by Caseynotes on an earlier post. If there is to be a trend reversal to the downside or even sideways then It seems the Nasdaq 100 is leading the way ahead of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. The US 100 (Nasdaq 100) is still above it 20, 50, 100 & 200 DMA. What is interesting is that the 20 & 50 DMA's are sloping upwards but the 100 & 200 DMA are sloping sideways which to me indicated there are not been a trend reversal which can be evidenced by the price action. At this specific moment in time one could argue that the price behaviour could either continue upwards or decide to go on a sideways journey. If the any of the DMA's begin sloping downwards then for me a short position should be at least considered. At the moment it seems like a sideways move may be materialising with a small upward bias but this could change very shortly.
  19. TrendFollower

    UK REAL ESTATE

    @ArthurHouse, You may well be correct but let me offer you a counter view. UK REIT is paying 10% to encourage current investors not to sell with Brexit uncertainty and potential drop in house prices looming should the worst happen for the UK economy. It is also trying to encourage potential new investors with this 10% dividend yield. Is this really sustainable? With REIT's they can borrow money to purchase real estate and this is great in a housing 'boom bubble' with low interest rates. When interest rates begin to rise and the housing market begins to cool and decline they can be faced with lots of redemptions, higher financing costs, etc. There is most probably a very important reason why it is trading at such a massive discount! No one knows how long the Brexit Cloud will last net alone when it will pass over. My personal opinion is to wait for the drop in house prices before pulling the trigger on UK real estate. If the worst was to happen and the UK was faced with a serious recession then we could see anywhere from 10% - 30% drop in house prices.
  20. TrendFollower

    Gathering Ideas

    @ArthurHouse, What are you trading at the moment? What trading style do you adopt? I mainly trade Commodities and Cryptocurrencies but will trade more or less any asset based on trends and price action. I use trend following principles but with my own twist and flavour. What about you?
  21. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @ArthurHouse, Great question. From an economics perspective the 'Economic Policy Uncertainty Index' is at its highest point since 1985. http://www.policyuncertainty.com I also think this uncertainty in US macros is helping the cause for Gold to appreciate in price. To answer you question, in my personal opinion I think the risk has increased in this trade when considering opening a new 'long' position. I just have a feeling that there is going to be an almighty correction should any bad news be released by the US Government, US companies (earnings results) and the media. However, short term and day trading is the only way in my opinion right now to open new 'long' positions on US indices. The price action does not warrant a 'short' to open now as that would be suicidal. As @Caseynotes suggests and I agree with him that a critical price point is approaching when the market will have to choose a path and the price action will tell us what that path is. Until then there is uncertainty and there will most certainly be volatility. I would not be surprised to see the volatility index spiking during this period.
  22. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @Caseynotes, I agree with you on the $2812 level and that it could go one of two ways. I would like to add a 3rd way which is sideways whilst the world works out what is going on with US-China trade, Brexit, Venezuela et al. It was something Elle posted where a sideways trend is possible with an upward slow bias. Some would argue this is the same as upwards but it would be a different type of trend to trade with different timescales.
  23. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Bitcoin hit $3935.40 earlier today so not far off the psychological $4000.00 level. The problem is that even if Bitcoin hit $6000 it would still be in a long term downtrend. I think it would need to clear $7000.00 level for any serious rally to materialise and be taken seriously. That is not to say there is not a trading opportunity on the long side for day traders and short term traders. All Cryptocurrencies listed on IG's platform are having a terrific day but we have seen this many times before. That does not necessarily mean that pattern will repeat itself but I would expect a high risk asset like Bitcoin to re-test its low and consolidate its position before any serious move upwards. That said there are no rules to suggest that new history cannot be created on a new asset.
  24. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    Here comes the range Chris mentioned on his recent IG post.
  25. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    So Craig Wright is suggesting he is Satoshi according to a SEC filing. Bitcoin is approaching its first month since July 2018 where it could end in positive territory. Is this the end of the bear market in Cryptocurrencies? At this moment in time the long term trend in Cryptocurrencies offered on IG's platform is still downwards. These rallies in the past have been great in 'suckering' people in. I was one of them when some of my indicators were hit for Stellar and Ripple and I made losses on both of those trades. I have not gone long since from a trading perspective though I am still long on Bitcoin from an investment perspective since the $2000 levels which I executed over two years ago. Bitcoin needs to cross $4,000 first and foremost before any meaningful discussion or debate can take place in terms of future price behaviour for this asset. If it does not then there is always the possibility for further downside movement leading to another new low for Bitcoin et al.
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