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TrendFollower

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Posts posted by TrendFollower


  1. Gold seems poised to make a move on its next leg upwards and seems to be leading the way with Silver trying to play catch up. It seems Silver is following Gold's lead. 

    Gold finished around $1321 and Silver $15.74. 

     


  2. Apparently Italian Bonds (especially long dated over short dated) over value. 

    Italy's Most Beaten-Up Bonds Are Place to Be for NatWest, HSBC

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-12/italy-s-longer-dated-debt-is-place-to-be-for-natwest-and-hsbc

    I personally am interested in Germany Bonds and potentially UK and US Bonds should they teeter on a recessionary phase. Also I have more confidence in Germany, UK and US Bonds over Italian Bonds. With Brexit and turmoil in the EU another Greece is just waiting to happen. 


  3. @Dantro,

    By having a stop loss strategy you should know your exit before you enter the trade.

    Have a look at indicators such as volume (is it increasing along with the price action), momentum, RSI, moving averages, etc. Use all of these and others to help you make an informed decision. Why is the particular asset moving in the direction it is. Use Oscilators for potential entry points when you have identified a trend. What moving averages are you looking at from a time perspective?

    Even after applying all of the above you can still lose on a trade if your timing is wrong. Trading is supposed to be extremely difficult and anyone who suggests otherwise is wrong. It will require a large capital buffer, patience, discipline, effort, etc. 

    The hardest thing to do as a trader is nothing. Sometimes merely waiting patiently for the right opportunity to trade based on trends is hard if you are 'trigger happy'. 

    • Like 2

  4. In my personal experience when I see yields on Bonds declining it means that Bond prices are rising. This activity over a prolonged period can sometimes be a signal of a potential recession around the corner. 

    UK Bond prices will be very interesting over the coming weeks and months. If this is to play out like I think it will then the price behaviour on Bonds and Gilts can be added to my 'decision making basket' so that it can assist me along with many other indicators as to when the market may begin to decline in anticipation of a serious recession. 


  5. German Buxl up 115 points today at the time of writing. 

    There were some really big and noticeable price rises today on the Bond market. 

    The institutions will be shifting and allocating a proportion of capital from the super rich and wealthy investment portfolio's into Bonds. 

    I think we are seeing that shift gather pace. It has been gradually happening slowly over the past 12 months but I think as Brexit and political turmoil around the world takes shape then it will be more obvious and apparent.

    I would expect the Precious Metals market to move in tandem and more specifically Gold but this is an assumption and I shall wait for the price behaviour to either confirm or reject such an assumption. 


  6. If one looks at the German Bund chart then it looks very interesting indeed.

    The trend is upwards and the price action is supporting this over the past 12 months which could possibly mean there has been a shift in capital and strategy for some of the largest players in the bond market.

    The price is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages.

    The German Buxl is also showing encouraging price action over the past 12 months.

    The UK Long Gilt has spiked up over the past month and so too has the French OAT and German Bobl. If you then compare this with the 3 month Eurodollar price action then it begins to tell a narrative of what may be starting to happen with a shift in capital towards precious metals and bonds.

    Once Brexit and US-China trade talks are concluded then certain economies around the world may begin to unravel and head towards recession. If this were to happen then Bond and Gilt prices may be a key indicator in terms of how they behave and react.  

     


  7. Paths can change. I am not suggesting they will but destinations can change due to bumpy roads or traffic. At the moment it does seem onwards and upwards. 

    As the longer term trend was down I did not go long on the US indices as I did not want to go against the longer term trend in play.

    It looks like the major US indices are on course to test their 52 week high.

    It would be a brave trader to trade against this strength. Contrarian trades are extremely difficult but if timed right can be hugely profitable in a shorter time period than the upward trend that took place previously. 


  8. There I was thinking the trend is weakening!

    Trends can last a lot longer than one thinks. The question is whether the US-China trade deal being done is priced into the markets. If it is then we could see a drop in prices once the deal is announced as the current price action could be anticipating the deal being done.

    It is clear that news being released by the US media (driven by the US Government) is dictating the price action of US indices right now and it is very wise to never go against the trend so opening a short right now is an absolute no. 


  9. @elle,

    Very interesting. Though there may be different geo political factors in play. 

    Also patterns in past performance does not necessarily mean that future performance will follow that same pattern. 

    Having said that the similarities are very similar. It would be interesting to know what geo political factors were in play during that initial period and then conduct a 'compare and contrast' exercise. 

    Nice one. It is very interesting indeed. If it played out like that then my shorting opportunity that I am looking for may not materialise for a while yet. Patience will be key.


  10. It seems that both Gold and Silver are about to continue their next leg up after that recent very healthy correction. 

    If the coming week brings uncertainty existing in the Brexit outcome and no resolutions to the US-China trade talks then I anticipate that both Gold and Silver will have a positive week from a price action perspective. 

     


  11. I sense the trend is weakening though still rather bullish to the upside when looking at the 'daily' charts for the major US indices. @Kodiak has highlighted a break below the trend channels which may lead to a possible trend reversal to the downside. 

    My gut instinct tells me that there has to be a major move downwards but I cannot open the short position until the price behaviour supports this. Even then markets can still move against you like my earlier trade on the S&P 500 where I clearly shorted in a downtrend and it met several strong indicators but the trade still went against me as my timing was out. I would like to get in early on any shorting opportunity for the US indices so my eyes are firmly fixed on the price action, trend strength, volume and moving averages. 

    Let us see what the coming trading week brings. 

     


  12. @JamesIG,

    Thank you for your response and further detailed explanation which I think was both very useful and interesting.

    What is the trading background and success of these experts?

    How many of their trades are profitable?

    How much profit / loss do they make per annum in percentage terms as they may not want to disclose revenue figures?

    Do they actually currently trade the markets so they understand the 'audience' they are catering too?


  13. How will the current Brexit scenario and risks associated with the March 2019 deadline affect the markets?

    How will the current delay in US-China trade talks and also the March 2019 deadline before the US puts up tariffs affect the markets?

    These are two key questions facing both investors and traders at the moment. 

    Usually the markets move prior to the 'big event' in both advance and anticipation. 

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