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Posts posted by TrendFollower

  1. Could the Easter weekend bring a bumper dose of price action for Bitcoin et al?

    Prices are looking solid going into this long weekend including Good Friday, Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday. There could be a lot of interesting price action. Some of the best gains can come when one least expects. I suppose the same is true of the reverse in terms of losses!

  2. I thought this article was rather relevant to this thread. 

    EU sugar rises as regional market tightens, world prices languish


    The last paragraph in the article is rather interesting from a 'Fundamental Perspective'. 

    Analysts expect the global sugar market to record a deficit of 1.9 million tonnes in 2019/20, but following years of surplus, stockpiles are plentiful, keeping prices stubbornly range-bound near decade lows.

  3. Gold's price action is very negative. This is an ideal scenario for shorting it in a short term basis. I think Gold will have further to fall. I include a chart below for illustrate this point.


    I do not envisage Gold going below $1200 but there is the risk of it falling below $1250. This could attract a new wave of buying pressure due to traders and investors thinking they are getting good value. 

  4. Bitcoin hit $5320 overnight. 

    As time moves forward the 52 week high for Bitcoin will decline. To illustrate the point based on today's current prices Bitcoin's 52 week high would be close to $10k. Now it simply is not going to hit that either this month or next month. However, if its 52 week high was say $6k then it is more likely to hit than on speculative capital, herd behaviour, trend followers, etc. 

  5. The one interesting thing I have noticed in the latest bearish price action for Gold is that it seems to be dropping more or less similar to Silver. Silver so far seems to be dropping less aggressively than I envisaged. I must admit I would have expected Silver to be going down for more aggressively than Gold. Don't get me wrong. They have both gone down and dropped considerably. The point I am trying to articulate albeit badly is that I expected Silver to go down far more and far quicker than Silver and this has not occurred so far.


  6. @Ham or should I say Tim?

    Jambo. Which part of Uganda are you from? Kampala?

    Interesting question. I did not think IG accepted clients from Uganda but I could be wrong. I too will be interested to see the answer to your question. @JamesIG, are you able to help here?

    I have found the following which are the countries that IG Group operate in:


    Now I know this does not answer your question but lets see what James comes back with. 

  7. @dmedin,

    I totally agree with you that Spread Betting is aimed at the retail gambler. The broker (house) is betting on them making wrong trading decisions and profiting. The house always has the stronger edge and the house always wins. The statistics show this. However, to counter my own argument I have heard the argument that Spread Betting platforms like IG need traders to be successful in trading so that they keep placing more trades thus earning them more money. I do understand this argument as well. 

    This is why I keep on stating that when Spread Betting one must only trade with the strongest trends and not against them. That is the best chance a trader has to be involved in a profitable trade and a successful outcome. Anything else in my opinion is more towards gambling. All trading has an element of speculation but with the right conditions / environment and certain signals one can use this to stack the odds slightly in their favour and increase the probability of a winning trade. No guarantees of course. 

    Spread Betting allows the use of leverage. With sound risk management, if leverage can be used effectively it can  enhance profits. 

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  8. Gold is in danger of going down to $1242 level. The chart is looking very bearish to me now. 

    It is beginning to make 'Lower Highs' and 'Lower Lows' look imminent. For me now is not the time to try and be clever and go 'Long'. One must either:

    • Short Gold
    • Do Nothing

  9. @nit2wynit,

    I think Caseynotes mentioned this in either this thread or another but I agree with him. For new and inexperienced traders it may be a good idea to bet the smallest amount you can in a live account and build those positions up by adding to them should the trade move in your favour (direction). This will help to build your confidence and allow you to really monitor the price action and try and understand why it is moving the way it is. 

    However, I would like to add that before you do this make sure you select your asset to trade wisely. Make sure you entry point is thought through carefully. If certain indicators are not met then you should seriously consider waiting patiently until they before entering any trade. 

    Sometimes the wisest thing to do is nothing. Do not feel obliged to place a trade. Make sure the conditions and set up are in your favour based on your trading strategy and system. 

    • Like 1

  10. @JamesIG,

    Thanks for sharing this.

    One thing the link to IG's piece on trading Coffee does not mention is that 'Speculation' also moves Coffee prices when there is anticipation in advance of a potential / possible outcome.

    Hedge Funds are great at driving prices either higher or lower. 

  11. @nit2wynit,

    Each trading vehicle will have its advantages and disadvantages. You must choose one or several which meets your needs and can help you to reach your goals. 

    With Spread Betting it allows you access to certain assets like Cryptocurrencies and Commodities without owning the physical Cryptocurrency or opening a Commodities futures account. It also allows you to short shares which you could not do if you were merely acquiring them (long position) from a mainstream broker. It is also tax efficient for the 20% who make profits but they would still have to make profits greater than their CGT allowance to take advantage of this tax efficiency which possibly many do not.

    There are downsides of course such as the wide and at times ridiculous spreads, margin requirements and overnight charges. It will suit some and I am sure it will not suit many. For me those who lose money and have losing trades using Spread Betting find it easy to blame 'Spread Betting' rather than their trading strategy and trading system.

    Options will have their benefits and CFD's will have theirs. You must use the trading vehicle and platform which best suits your trading strategy and system. You must use the option which gives you the best chance of profit maximisation and successful / profitable trades. Only you will be able to decide this. What is right / wrong for you may not be for others. 

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  12. @cryptotrader,

    The price started its recent strong decline from August 2018.

    I do not follow the stock nor have I ever invested or traded it. Therefore I am not familiar with the fundamentals. 

    These shares are great when Commodities are on a super bull run. They attracts a lot of speculative capital. They become leverage play on Commodities. 


    By the time you establish there is no chance of further capital the so called smarter money have already shorted it and driven the price down. Just be careful that you are not the last one to join the shorting/selling party.

  13. @wjw22,

    The smart money would have shorted this since August 2018. It has been a short since. The question now is whether there is more downside, a potential revival and rally or prolonged sideways action. 

    You state the company is about to run out of money by the end of Q2 2019. Is there any chance of further investment being made in the company? Could further capital be injected into the business? 

    What about the fundamentals of the company? Are they strong, weak or thin air?

  14. @kingtrader72,

    Had you gone long on 4th April 2019 then you would be losing capital. One of the reasons would be that you would be trading against a strong bearish trend.

    You also need to look at the supply / demand issues for Coffee and any fundamental factors which are driving coffee prices down. One would need to appreciate the background narrative being played before placing any trading position.

    I would suggest either short coffee or if you feel uncomfortable shorting an asset then wait patiently and do nothing. Wait for a clear trend reversal. 

    • Like 1