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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    I was looking at the Gold chart and the one thing I have noticed since the 'bottom' on Thursday 16th August 2018 is that Gold has been making 'higher lows' and to a certain degree 'higher highs' though the lower lows have been more stronger than the higher highs. Now a potential Gold trade could be that when the next higher low is formed to open a long trade with a stop loss around the $1200 area to ensure volatility does not stop you out unnecessarily. I think a price to go long around the $1220 - $1225 area could be achievable and also an attractive entry point. I see Gold trying to attempt the $1243.00 area which would bring it nicely towards the 200 day moving average price. This is something that I myself will be considering as Gold is currently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is my indicator/signal to start getting interested. I am never convinced with the potential points / profits on offer with Gold and I do not at this point envisage a big move in Gold which is the reason why I have not yet pulled the trigger on such a trade. For me to personally be interested in this trade I would need to apply some serious leverage to maximise the profit potential as I just do not see a big move yet in Gold. It could happen in the months or years to come but right now I am not sure. I could be wrong and Brexit could start a domino effect but I do think Gold has the potential based on the current price action to certainly go for the $1243 area which could be a nice short term trade. I have included a diagram below where I have highlighted the 'lower lows' and slightly weaker 'higher highs' below. The circle at the end is where I am envisaging the price to hit at some point in December / January should this trend continue. I think there is a potential short term 'Long' trade here in Gold and though I am not a fan of Gold based on point / profit potential, I think I could get interested when applying leverage to maximise any profits in such a trade.
  2. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    @Caseynotes, Gold could still have another go at breaking that. Whether it will or not I don't know but I am sure we will find out over the course of this week.
  3. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    For me the trend up is still upwards and what we are witnesses is a mere correction. However if the price was to go below its 50 day moving average then I think we could see a trend change. The $1261.00 level will be crucial. If this holds and Gold stays above it then we could see another move upwards. If this price does not hold then I do fear we may witness longs closing, more shorts opening and stop losses being triggered causing a further drop to the price of Gold and potentially eliminating recent gains for those who are left holding based on 'market noise', 'emotions', 'fundamentals', etc.
  4. The US 500 which is the (S&P 500) is an attractive potential shorting opportunity. As many of you know I like to be as open and transparent as possible. I like to keep things simple and really add significant value to the IG Community with real live trades. I have today opened a short position on the US 500 at 2506.91 via IG's Spread Betting platform. I should get daily credit interest as well - 😉 Why did I pick this to short ahead of the other indices? Well first of all it has lower margin requirements than other indices. This is extremely important when one is adding to short positions as the price continues to move downwards thus trying to maximise profits. Also the trends seem similar when comparing it to the Dow so why use up extra capital on margin requirements? Again I am sharing some of my live trades with the IG Community and will share my views, thinking and rationale behind any decisions. I will not hide behind complex analysis and complex theory that many may find difficult to follow or understand.
  5. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    The price action is hinting / suggesting at another move downwards which is long due and one expects profit taking and stop losses to be triggered as a result. Let’s see what happens!
  6. TrendFollower

    Scalping

    @TheGuru12, During the rise of Bitcoin over 12 months ago I remember placing numerous trades within a 2-4 hour period and my trades were lasting around 5-10 mins if that on some of them. This was on IG's Spread Betting platform!
  7. To me, Bitcoin has to not only cross the $11,700 level but stay above it. If it can achieve that then let the games begin. At the moment, Bitcoin is showing some immense resilience bearing in mind the large negative media coverage it has had and is still getting. Since the last major drop / correction there has been a change in Bitcoin's price behaviour. It is slowly creeping upwards but consolidating more frequently. The 4 hour chart shows this nicely. This is unlike the parabolic rise it saw prior to the December 2017 all time high. This is actually very good for Bitcoin long term. It means the volatility which is still there may well start to decline going forwards to avoid such big moves upwards and such big drops / corrections. As liquidity increases and the market matures then the price behaviour of Bitcoin may become more stable if that is a word that I can apply. For me any drop below the $9,400 level would be worrying.
  8. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    @Amirf, Have a look at the price around July 2017 period and during the drop. Research shows us that 'Bubbles' tend to revert back to mean. Now that does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin must revert back to its mean as it could create a new 'history' for itself but if it was to revert back to its prices before the 'parabolic rise' then it could go into the $2k area. The truth is I do not know what the Bitcoin price will be next month or next year and the assumption I make will be tested and the results will be known via the price action of Bitcoin. So we are about to find out.
  9. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @Stewart, Yes I think you summarise it well. I think the notion of the trade was correct and my timing was initially good as I was 140 points up at one stage but I then opened a second position at the wrong time and then the trade went totally against me. Interesting about going short. I think I shall be trying again very soon.
  10. TrendFollower

    Is an edge important?

    I would just like to add that yes backtesting is important when fine tuning a trading system to establish an 'edge' but I believe that forward testing is crucial to confirm if that 'edge' truly exists and to really confirm quantification of that 'edge'.
  11. The only asset I day trade is Cryptocurrencies. I at times only place trades which last 5-10 mins within Cryptocurrencies. I just tried to short Neo, EOS and Stellar at 11:32 am on Saturday 19th January 2019 and could not do so. This is so frustrating. @JamesIG I am sure you will provide an explanation for this but I had to place the trade with another platform (competitor of IG's) and this happens far too often that I have lost count. The message I get is, "You cannot sell this market to open". I find short 5-10 min trades on Cryptocurrencies great when they are moving in a certain direction but IG's liquidity issues affect the level of service on Cryptocurrencies.
  12. TrendFollower

    Shorting Cryptocurrencies Over The Weekend

    @JamesIG, I just tried a test to short NEO and still the same message is appearing. This was 12:33 pm. I look forward to received an in-depth reply on Monday as to the reasons why this was happening.
  13. TrendFollower

    Smart Money - Precious Metals

    Looking at the trends for Precious Metals right now with the Hurricane and North Korea missile launched then it seems the smart money is going into Precious Metals. Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium are performing as one would expect. There may be a short term play here where profits can be made. What will be interesting is how Bitcoin performs now with the news that North Korea launched missile. Last time around it shot up. Lets see what happens. There is a nice trend on Copper too! The doctor is performing.
  14. TrendFollower

    Smart Money - Precious Metals

    Palladium has been outperforming all the other precious metals by quite a distance. Yes the margin requirements are higher but the performance has been higher too! The spread is not actually that bad either on it. As I have stated in many occasions a long term upward trend can last a lot longer than one expects. Palladium has a unique benefit in that it is a precious metal that can go up during time of crisis but also it has important industrial uses which means when economies are doing well, their stock markets are doing well in the shape of equities / indices then Palladium can too perform well. Platinum has been the weakest and Gold and Silver seeming to be at the beginning of their journey to possibly join Palladium but I do not think Palladium is about to give up its crown as 'Top Dog' anytime soon. From an investment portfolio perspective, I would want to start considering shifting a small allocation from equities into Precious Metals and Bonds and think about rebalancing based on Brexit consequences, recessions in certain EU Member States such as France and Germany and the US!
  15. TrendFollower

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    I do not think the large financial institutions are going to flood capital into the Cryptocurrency markets in the likes of Bitcoin until the price is around the $2k area. There will be volatility and rallies along the way but it seems that Bitcoin is heading for the $2k area unless there is a remarkable change in sentiment and capital begins to be invested in Cryptocurrencies by the largest banks, etc.
  16. TrendFollower

    Shorting Cryptocurrencies Over The Weekend

    Ok thanks @JamesIG. Much appreciated.
  17. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    I still believe the longer term trend is still (for now) in tact for both Gold and Silver on the 'Long' side. Therefore, it is likely that I will be looking to re-enter both very shortly should the upward move resume. Also, I think the next two months will be very volatile in the markets in general with Brexit et al and so I will be keeping an eye on the price action for both Gold and Silver for sure.
  18. TrendFollower

    Asset/Security Request

    @KU1, That is interesting. May I ask why not XAU / GBP? I am from the UK but I accept you may be based in another EU Member State but a very good question. I would like IG to offer XAU / GBP so lets see if IG can make us both happy!
  19. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    @softcell, No problem. Though I made losses on these trades it has done wonders for me in my 'Long Term Investment Portfolio' as I made some lump sum investments into my US Smaller Companies fund and Automation, Robotics and AI funds which have US based companies in the portfolio.
  20. TrendFollower

    US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity

    I have exited the 'Short' position on the S&P 500 and the final result is as follows: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 ended up down 96 points. Both my 'Short' trades on the S&P 500 have resulted in losing trades. That is fine. One learns and moves on. I try not to get emotionally attached to any of my losing trades and I have had many. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages so it is not wise to open any shorts on this yet. The 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages are all sloping upwards which indicates to me a bullish pattern but the 200 day moving average is sloping downwards which still gives me the impression that there could be a big move downwards looming. I do not know when but I would be surprised if the S&P 500 did not revisit and re-test the recent low formed. The volume is not convincing in my opinion. When you look at the volume when I went opened my short trade compared to the volume now when it is trending upwards then there is a stark different. This does make me think whether this is just a monster relief rally and it does make me question how genuine this rally is. However, it is the price action which determines whether to trade or not and if so then which direction to trade everything else is secondary. I hope those who were following this live trade found it both useful and beneficial. Also for those of you not aware I was also sharing live trades in Gold and Silver which both were profitable trades so you may wish to look at that thread if you have not done so. It then gives a balanced picture of both profitable and losing trades shared with the IG Community.
  21. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    I have exited both 'long' positions in Gold and Silver today. The actual results are as follows: Long Trade in Silver up 78 points in just over one month from opening the trade Long Trade in Gold up 37 points in just over one month from opening the trade So I have profited from both trades in a reasonable timescale using the ability to leverage via Spread Betting. Gold and Silver have both gone below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Volume was higher on the downward days than the upward days recently. There may be a shift in sentiment due to the recent rally in the major indices such as the US and UK markets. Also there will be of course profit selling resulting in stop losses being triggered amplifying the move downwards. Right now it is about watching the price action and re-entering on the recommencing of the trend upwards for those looking to go long. There could also be a shorting opportunity but it is not something I would be looking at right now with all the uncertainty still in the market but for shorter term traders there could be some profitable short trades on both Gold and Silver.
  22. TrendFollower

    New to trading

    @Lech82, What is important is that you have considered all the different asset classed you could have traded and how you have come to the decision on trading FX pairs. This should be documented in your trading plan, especially the methodology you used which can always be revised as it should be a 'living' document which is adaptable. I assume you have chosen the FX pairs to trade due to the liquidity and taking into account the volatility? Do you want to day trade or trade longer trends? How have you come to the decision?
  23. Some of you may want to have a look at Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle for those interested in riding trends. For those who want to manage their risk on the trade could decide to short one of them as a pair trade. If one attempts this type of trade then they need to go long on the one they feel is likely to go up by more points. For example at the time of writing Live Cattle is up 300 points and Feeder Cattle is up 430 points. So one could go long Feeder Cattle and Short Live Cattle. For the aggressive trader they may decide to go long both to maximise any returns / profits. Some of you may just go long on one of them. There are several ways you could play this trade.
  24. TrendFollower

    Live Cattle & Feeder Cattle by TrendFollower

    For those on the IG Community interested in this trade and are 'long' stay in the trade and do not sell too early. Your stop loss should only execute your profitable exit once the trend has changed. Now speaking of trend changes and it will occur then one must be ready to short the very asset they have just profited from on a long trade. This helps to maximise profits from an asset whether that asset is trending upwards or downwards. If you look at Commodities such as Orange Juice, Lumber, etc. then this was evident. The trend downwards ends up being sharp and quick. I am expecting the same of Live Cattle. However there is no guarantee and it is certainly not a given. My personal opinion is that it is very likely. 'Assumption Testing' now required. So there is likely be a shorting opportunity for Live Cattle so be ready but keep long for now for those with open trades.
  25. TrendFollower

    Potential 'Long' Gold Trade

    If you look at both Gold and Silver right now then Gold seems ready for its next upward leg yet Silver is showing the opposite. It seems like it is ready for a downward move. I think both are waiting to see how the major equity indices perform before deciding upon its next course.
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