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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. It just shows how daily or short term price action even on the 'daily' can change very quickly. One may now think Gold is heading further lower based on the chart below. This is why short term trading is very difficult and I tend to stick to longer trends. I find it easier as you can have days when the price action is against you but overall in that week, month or months the price action is moving in the direction of the trade placed and hence the chances of success increase. Gold is very choppy at the moment and volatility would make it difficult to establish short term which direction it is taking but at the moment my view is that the downward correction is still in motion looking at above.
  2. I think Lumber will attempt the 43000 level. Of course supply and demand fundamentals will be key to whether Lumber does reach such a level again.
  3. @CharlotteIG, Yes interesting piece. I think Cryptocurrencies are an asset class to stay. What I do not know is which Cryptocurrencies will make it and survive and which will not make it and fail. Will Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash make it? For me Bitcoin is clearly on a downward trajectory but as we know with Bitcoin it is capable of reversing quickly and hitting double digit returns in the opposite direction over a matter of hours. I have seen that many times before. The key to all this will be news and no analysts can predict when this news will be released. Right now positive news will drive Crypto prices higher and no news or negative news will drive it lower. Also one pattern I am seeing is that when Indices are bullish and Gold and Bonds are bearish then Cryptos seem to do well and when Indices are bearish and Gold and Bonds are bullish then Cryptos seem to fare badly. This is just a trend I have been seeing which tends to be a good indicator of imminent direction for Crypto prices on a short term time period.
  4. It seems Bitcoin is continuing its downward bias. Another pattern some of you will have noticed is that when indices are falling so too does Bitcoin and when indices are positive so too is Bitcoin. This infers a correlation between indices and Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a typical 'Risk On' trade where as Bonds and Gold are a typical 'Risk Off' trade. This tells me that Bitcoin is no where near behaving like a 'safe haven' asset or like 'Digital Gold'. That could take many years / decades if it happens at all. Bitcoin as a Digital payment method across borders seems like where it wants to go. Whether it gets there who knows. Right now Bitcoin is bearish but my experience has taught me with Bitcoin that it can reverse sharply when you least expect and catch you out. Monitoring the price action is the only way to be in tune with Bitcoin.
  5. With indices showing downward price action and Bonds showing upward price action, Gold and Silver, have the backdrop to move up today. Also Crypto's falling so it seems like today will be 'RISK OFF' rather than 'Risk On'.
  6. Could this be the next big move before Christmas on Natural Gas? Natural Gas is one of those assets which will move totally against your view when you expect the opposite so do not be surprised if it moves downwards now!!!
  7. Gold may well continue its downward and bearish path but should any economic or political bad news come out in relation to any of the major countries around the world then Gold could begin a move upwards. A move below $1400 would be very negative for Gold and change the sentiment for any major Gold move upwards.
  8. Both Cocoa - New York and Cocoa - London are up today. The 'daily' chart is looking bullish and it seems Cocoa has some momentum for now. The price on both is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's on the 'daily'. Also volume is showing an increase in line with the recent price gain. It seems the 'Awesome Oscillator' is about to turn in London Cocoa's favour.
  9. It seems it is London Robusta Coffee which is showing positive price action today. It is up over 3% today. When you look at the 'daily' zoomed out it seems London Robusta Coffee is still in a downtrend. Until that downtrend bottoms out and consolidates and a bottom is formed then going 'long' presents high risk to capital. As you can see from the chart that the correct trade has been 'short' over the past year or two.
  10. It seems Live Cattle prices are being supported by strong beef prices. Also it is being reported that Asia are also one one of the reasons why prices are going up. What we are seeing is a strong bullish trend upwards. How many other assets during the same period have trended stronger than Live Cattle? Not many is the answer.
  11. Well it seems NEO is really going for it and leading the away again this morning. It is already up over 6%. It looks like some large Chinese buying is helping NEO's price to drive upwards.
  12. This article further supports the article I included the link for in yesterday's post. Ghana to finalize $600 million cocoa loan package this week https://www.reuters.com/article/us-africa-investment-cocoa/ghana-to-finalize-600-million-cocoa-loan-package-this-week-idUSKBN1XL2AB
  13. Also there is large Chinese interest in NEO. Also if you look at the chart 'daily' then it looks very bullish.
  14. NEO is leading the way this evening and is up nearly 10% at the time of writing this post which is 9:00 pm UK time. There is always one of the alt coins which tends to lead the way before the others follow. I would not be surprised if we saw a big price move in Cryptocurrencies overnight whilst Asia is awake and the UK is asleep.
  15. Live Cattle continues its remarkable upward trend. This is a strong push upwards. It has surpassed 12000 and it seems to be heading for 13000. Some of the strongest trends can be those which one leasts expects. It can be the 'non sexy' assets. Live Cattle may not be the commodity most trade but there is no denying that its price action is far more attractive to trade than most assets.
  16. There seems to be the possibility of Cocoa - New York and Cocoa - London potentially breaking out. It is about identifying these strong trending assets at the earliest opportunity. Now all one can do is monitor the price action and it may not lead to anything as it may be a false potential but nevertheless it is worth keeping an eye on this one even if nothing materialises. With Christmas around the corner one can only assume that there is an increase in demand for Cocoa. The article below will be of interest to some of you. Ivory Coast and Ghana are two of the main players in the Cocoa industry. https://ghananewsagency.org/economics/ghana-and-african-development-bank-sign-600-million-cocoa-loan-159565
  17. When you look at the 'Commodity Channel Index' (CCI) then it seems based on the average price level of Bitcoin the price is low. This is based on 2019 time period using the 'daily'.
  18. Based on the 'daily' Bitcoin is still in bearish and downward territory unless it can break through the current trading channel it finds itself in based on the price action.
  19. It seems Natural Gas is moving towards the 2500 price area. This seems more likely than 3000 price area at this moment in time. However, Nat Gas, is one of the kings of volatility and it can sharply spike upwards on a moment of severe weather being forecasted which leads to more usage of heating and decreases the humongous supply glut in the US.
  20. Lumber could see the 38000 as highlighted below.
  21. Argo Blockchain PLC 7,000 mining machines now in production https://www.investegate.co.uk/argo-blockchain-plc--arb-/rns/7-000-mining-machines-now-in-production/201911110700048712S/ This company's share price is closely related to Bitcoin's price. If Bitcoin goes up then Argo will go up. If Bitcoin goes down then Argo will go down. If you look at Argo's share price chart then it has similarities with Bitcoin's price chart.
  22. Bitcoin finishing positive on Sunday evening but it really needs to surpass $10k and this is proving rather difficult. Positive news will be required and the typical media spin with a bit of pump as without this Bitcoin just won't have the legs to move towards its recent all time high. It has managed to move above $9k but needs to clear $9.5k otherwise it could be a bearish signal.
  23. Take this article with a pinch of salt but I there is a strong narrative for Bitcoin. It is gaining more attention and investment and institutional demand is increasing. Bobby Lee: $500K Bitcoin Price ‘Flippening’ of Gold Will Come by 2028 https://cointelegraph.com/news/bobby-lee-500k-bitcoin-price-flippening-of-gold-will-come-by-2028 No one knows what the price of Bitcoin will be tomorrow, next year or in the next decade. The one thing I do know is that Bitcoin has outperformed Gold as not only a store of value but as an asset to increase capital wealth since its inception 10 years ago.
  24. Apparently investment into Gold ETF's have surged but consumers have bought the least Gold this decade. This is an important point. The new and younger generation are not going so put their wealth into physical Gold or physical paintings like the older generations before us. Times are changing and digital assets are going to be the future. Right now the price action is down to institutional demand. That is what is driving up Gold prices currently and not the likes of 'Joe Bloggs' on the street. Even if the Gold price goes up I see longer term demand for Gold declining. Below is a quote from The Gold Bug. Demand for fabricated gold products, in contrast – from bonding-wire in electronics to dental fillings, bracelets, watch-cases and gold coins – fell to the lowest in at least 9 years. Even Indian demand for Gold fell this Diwali. The long term narrative is there for those to see should they wish to. I can see Gold going up over the next couple of years but the longer term narrative is bearish for me in Gold. If investments in Gold begin to unwind then it could see bearish price action.
  25. In my opinion the most bearish scenario I can see is that Gold's price goes into the price area between $1380 - $1400. This is interesting as the UK debt has been downgraded, India's economy is growing at a slower pace than previously. US is involved in Syria and Oil yet the Gold price is declining. Is this the behaviour of a 'save haven' asset? I think Gold's big price moves are fuelled by speculative capital just like other Commodities and assets. I think it is safe to say that Gold's price is unlikely to go below $1000 as that would require booming major world economies and a significant drop in Bond prices. The question I am asking is whether Gold is likely to go above $1500 and is it likely to go above $2000? I can see Gold going above $1500 but I cannot see Gold going above $2000. This is just my personal opinion of course. It would take some serious set of bad news and negativity to drive the Gold price above $2000 so of course it is possible but at present unlikely in my view.
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