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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. There are lots of reports coming out in the media and some from the UK Government itself admitting that the UK lags behind when it comes to Robotics and Automation. BEIS committee says UK lagging behind in robotics and automation https://www.governmentcomputing.com/automation/digital-disruptions/uk-robotics-automation-report This is just one article but there are many which make the same point.
  2. Making transactions online via our computer, laptop, tablet or mobile phone is the now and future. However with this comes risk of the theft of our data somewhere down the line. I think this article highlights why tokenisation can assist in this area and it is being launched by Google in India. India has a huge population and is a huge market to test digital innovation. I appreciate there are those who dismiss 'Tokenisation' because it is associated with 'Blockchain' and then those who dismiss both because of its association with 'Cryptocurrencies'. Some big players are incorporating 'tokenisation' into their business offerings and this is happening now and is projected to increase significantly in the future. The likes of Amazon, Google, IBM, Microsoft and Apple are all embracing Blockchain technology and Tokenisation. If this really is garbage and a fad (I don't believe it but I know some are convinced of it) then why are these companies even bothering? Google For India: Understanding Google Pay Virtual Tokenized Cards For Secure Payments https://www.news18.com/news/tech/google-for-india-understanding-google-pay-virtual-tokenized-cards-for-secure-payments-2314987.html One cannot simply dismiss something because they do not understand it properly. I believe in time to come 'tokenisation' will bring with it some fantastic and compelling investment opportunities. I have already taken equity stakes in some exciting UK start up's which are looking to disrupt the loyalty and payments offering in the UK and then internationally. These are early growth businesses at a very early stage. The one's that make it will either IPO in the future or be acquiring by larger companies. This is going to be a very exciting growth area in the future in my personal opinion. There is material online available on this subject matter and books as well. They are worth a read before dismissing this as a compelling investment opportunity. A lot of these companies are private companies which have not listed yet.
  3. India's stock market rose the most in around ten years yesterday. I have been investing in India for many years now and have seen some stellar growth over the past couple of decades. India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has in my opinion just lit the fuse to turbo charge Indian equities (bearing any major economic / political events). Corporation Tax has been reduced from 30% to around 25.75%. India's GDP growth had been declining from around 8% over a year ago to around 5% currently. Don't get me wrong, the UK and US would love to have 5% GDP growth but they are two of the most developed economies in the world. India's is looking to overtake the UK very soon and I think it will and chase the leading pack of US and China when it comes to GDP. This is going to be a very long journey and India has made large inroads under Modi. From an investment perspective I think it would be wise for any 'Capital Growth' investors like myself to have exposure to India in their portfolio's if they already do not have so. For those that do then they may want to consider increasing their exposure with a 5 to 10 year horizon at least. From a trading perspective, next week, will be very interesting. One may want to keep a close eye on the India 50 to see how the price behaves. Now with the UK you have Brexit which poses some risk to UK equities. You have Germany playing with recession which could have an impact on German equities and domino effect into European equities. US and China are going through a trade war which leaves India (as long as their are no major bad news events) a prime candidate to take advantage of the capital sitting on the sidelines or in Bonds, Gold and developed world equities. If that shift happens within the next 2-3 years then the current valuation of Indian equities is going to look cheap in my personal opinion.
  4. Your trading plan should include which signals and indicators you are going to use. This can change of course where you may add certain indicators later or remove certain indicators but they should be listed in your trading plan. I like volume, moving averages, relative strength index (RSI), momentum and the parabolic SAR. I like identifying breakouts as early as possible via monitoring price action and then seeing if they manifest into trends. Once they do then I want to try and establish which are the strongest trending. This is an important part of my trading strategy. I want to try and trade the strongest trending assets to give me the best possible chance of success or to try and increase my chances of success. If I look at a chart this cannot demonstrated to me then I will not trade that asset. I do not have a trading system which means that I have to trade on a given day, week or month. I have the advantage of only executing a trade when to me it is evident that the asset is one of the strongest trending assets available at a given time to trade which meets certain parameters and requirements. If you were going into a boxing match with an elite boxer then part of your preparation would include fitness, training, boxing technique, power, etc. Part of it would also include looking at the strengths and weaknesses of your opponent. Without proper preparation you would have a clear disadvantage in the boxing match as the opponent is an elite boxer. This is why in my opinion you need a trading plan when trading as this is the 'preparation' part of going into battle with the market.
  5. I just came across this article which is relevant to this thread. Trend Following CTAs Back With A Bang in 2019 https://www.alpha-week.com/blog/trend-following-ctas-back-bang-2019 The key is that conditions must be right. This is why Trend Following does not always work in all different market conditions. This is why Trend Following comes and goes. The trend following principles have been around for many years and they will continue to be around. They may change and adapt depending on market conditions but if the conditions are right then Trend Following can be a useful trading style to at least consider. For the mere mortals like us there are different signals and indicators we can use. I think following the price action is key. Any laziness or lack of effort in this is an absolute no - no. Living and breathing an asset and its price action with dedication can go a long way. If you do not have the time to passionately monitor the price action then trend following may not be for you. It takes a lot of time and interest and I accept some traders cannot be bothered or do not have time or interest. For those unless they have a very expensive automated 'also' trend following system then it may not be for them. By following the price action, you get a feel of the asset and what makes it move up, down or sideways. You get a sense of how the price may react when certain news is released. There is nothing wrong with using 'gut instincts' based on knowledge, experience and skills / ability of the trader. Of course you cannot use this alone. This needs to be supported by a few key signals and indicators which suit your trading style to try and improve your trade execution. You do not want to use lots and lots of signals and indicators as this will make it all too confusing. The trading system you decide upon must have trading rules which you believe in, understand and have some evidence after testing that they can work if the conditions are right. Some will use demo accounts, some will use real live accounts but with very small trades to really test their trading system in real live market conditions. Some will do both.
  6. Parabolic SAR is a tool / indicator which I find very useful. For Bitcoin it would indicate a 'short' signal but I would still not feel comfortable shorting Bitcoin right now. It is trading on the 'daily' below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA though it is above its 200 DMA but this could also indicate a short position on Bitcoin. Again I would still not feel comfortable shorting Bitcoin right now as it's price behaviour currently is not trending strongly downwards. This is where technical analysis can be dangerous as if we follow technical signals and indicators alone then it does not guarantee a successful or profitable trade. In my experience, Bitcoin et al, can move / reverse sharply when one thinks it is going move in a particular direction based on technical signals and indicators. This is why a lot of excellent and experienced traders who have mastered technical analysis still struggle to trade Crypto's because text book theory goes out of the window. Bitcoin for me is still news driven. Positive and bullish news will lead to bullish price behaviour and negative and bearish news will lead to downward price action. Sentiment also plays an important role. It is no coincidence that during this recent sideways and range bound price behaviour in Bitcoin that Google has seen searches for Bitcoin decline. Now if you look at the momentum indicator then it is supporting the current narrative of range bound and sideways trending price behaviour of Bitcoin. The momentum is not demonstrating that a long trade or short trade is on. Even if you look at volume then again it is in line with what I would expect to see on such price behaviour for Bitcoin. Sometimes the best trade when trading Cryptocurrencies is not to trade when we are seeing such price action. It is not currently the strongest trending asset. There are other assets which are trending stronger. There are other Crypto's which are trending stronger. Bitcoin along with Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin were some of the strongest trending assets earlier on in the year. From an investment perspective if those who think Bitcoin is going to continue upwards then they may see this as an opportunity to top up their investment but from a trading perspective I think it would be prudent to wait for a clear breakout and upward revival of the longer term trend before participating a trade in this asset. This is using the time frame of 'daily'. Those who use shorter timeframes may have different ideas so it would be interesting to see what they think.
  7. @aliputhengot, It seems this is a query that should be sent direct to IG's Customer Services as it may get lost here and you may not get a response from IG quickly here. They cannot check every message here so you may want to either ring them by phone or e-mail them.
  8. @anders, Yes Freetrade. I have an equity stake in that company and I am a shareholder in it. They want to really disrupt the UK investing landscape. They have far lower fees and their online platform and mobile platform is excellent. Of course I would say that and one could argue that I may have a bias but I would urge others to please go and have a look at Freetrade.
  9. @Mark27000 and @mark27 I just noticed there are two of you. You must be twins. 😂 That is so disrespectful. I have been trading Crypto's on IG's platform for well over two years as well as using XBT Provider One products for Bitcoin which is offered in SEK and EUR. However, why I am I wasting my time explaining this to you. I don't need to. For the record I did not go and try and find the only products that have no future contract. You are just making assumption after assumption. This is Comedy Platinum. 🤣 I suppose that was the only thing you could write to get out of a tricky situation. Well done. 👏 No please do not oblige in being rude. By all means be professional and share your trading wisdom on another thread of course as this thread is related to spread betting. If you look at all my threads over the last couple of years then it is not difficult to work out that I am trading Crypto's more than another other asset class. Just have a look at the themes, majority of them will be Crypto related. I don't know the exact percentage but I am willing to bet that a high majority and a high percentage of them are Crypto related. If you can prove me wrong then please do. Anyway if you are the fountain of all wisdom and you think you are better then let us see what you know and what you have got. So what assets do you trade and what is your trading style. How long have you been trading. What can you offer the IG Community in terms of something that can improve traders here? Can you offer anything which is not available for free online or normal textbook stuff that we can all read? Are you willing to share any live trades and show bad traders like me (sorry I cannot be a bad trader as I don't even trade) or other bad traders how to trade and consistently make profits year upon year. I am sure you will come up with an explanation of how I am just looking for someone to teach me how to trade or blah blah blah. Let's see what you have got in terms of trading ability and execution.
  10. @dmedin, I totally agree. I want to see the so called experts on IG Community that know it all and have lots of knowledge, intelligence, wisdom and cannot be wrong 'people' to prove this. They will not as they do not really want to help anyone on IG Community as they are selfish apart from sharing their posts, sharing links, sharing technical and complex information and everything BUT what people on IG Community are looking for. They then get defensive, abusive, rude and really turn the screw so that their real character comes out. I am a bad trader. I have no knowledge. I have no experience. There you go. I am sure this will satisfy some on the IG Community. So those who do have knowledge, do have experience and think they are superior I would love them to response to @dmedin and demonstrate that they are profitable traders who consistently make profits year upon year and pay a lot of tax to their tax authorities as they obviously do not use the tax efficient advantage of spread betting.
  11. @Mark27000, May I ask why you are being so rude. I have not been rude or discourteous to you. Would you please be kind enough to show me where this option is on IG's UK Spread Betting platform for the following that I use my UK Spread Betting account for: Bitcoin Ether Ripple Stellar Litecoin Bitcoin Cash EOS Crypto 10 Index NEO Ether/Bitcoin Bitcoin Cash/Bitcoin Now please would you be kind enough to evidence to me where the futures option is and I certainly appreciate you 'twaddle-less' answer. I look forward to learning from someone on the IG Community. It is all about sharing. If you know something which I do not then I am happy to learn from you. You can never stop learning. I will hold my hands up. I have been trading Cryptocurrencies on IG's platform for around 2-3 years using Spread Betting and I never knew they had a futures option. Oh wait, I live and breathe Cryptocurrencies and follow news on a daily basis so what do I know. Hold on I do not trade and I am full of 'twaddle'. OK, I am about to learn something here. This will be very useful to me as I go long and short on Cryptocurrencies so this is getting me excited now. Now if I have no clue then I really want to assess how much 'clue' you have. This thread is all about spread betting so I am sticking to the topic. I have been posting on this thread in relation to spread betting. If you want to write about something else then this may be the wrong thread. That is my clue level but let us see your clue level. What I obviously do, I should know but I guess I do not know. You obviously know what I do and not do more than me. Wow some arrogance. If I do not trade then don't waste your time even posting to me and if I do trade then maybe I am a bad trader. There are many bad traders on IG Community. You may also be one of them. I do not know. I look forward to your professional and polite answer to see how polite and courteous you are. Or shall I make an assumption that you are just a rude and impolite person? You seem to like making assumptions.
  12. CME Group Is Launching Bitcoin Options Early in 2020 https://www.coindesk.com/cme-group-is-launching-bitcoin-options-early-in-2020 So we have the halving event which is the main event of 2020 for Bitcoin but now with this from CME supporting it. Could this lead to yes a big correction after the halving event but a new lower high?
  13. Another RNS released by Argo. The news is really flowing out of this company. They are really going for it. However, whether this will be successful or end up a failure, time will tell. Argo Blockchain PLC New Mining Hardware Installed and Operational https://www.investegate.co.uk/argo-blockchain-plc--arb-/rns/new-mining-hardware-installed-and-operational/201909190700138786M/
  14. @Caseynotes and @Mark27000, Spread Betting is a tax efficient way of trading. Your profits are free from UK Capital Gains Tax and there is no needs to disclose or include in your UK Self Assessment Tax Return. Imagine if you were a day trader and a profitable one you would have to ensure that you declared, included and paid the correct tax at the correct time and this would be your responsibility. Yes you can hire an accountant but there will be a cost to that. Yes there is accounting and tax software but you still have to input all the details. Spread Betting makes is seamless and less hassle. It is easier in my opinion when limited time is available. I am an investor first and foremost and trading is only a very small part of what I do. Now in terms of paying overnight charges. If you are a profitable trader using leverage then the overnight charges will be coming out of your profits (leveraged). With spread betting you do not have clearing fees, the costs associated per contract (futures), paying for a terminal every month. I think there are advantages and disadvantages to both but the real advantage of spread betting is the tax efficiency. I love it. The disadvantage is the costs via the spreads and overnight charges. Each trader has to weigh up (based on their personal circumstances) which is better for them. Trend Trading Futures contracts is not tax efficient. Yes it may be cheaper due to no or little overnight charges but the tax you have to pay on your profits, each trader will have to work out the math and see which option is better for them. On spread betting the overnight charges are the costs of being able to carry over a leveraged position. It is the privilege to do so and of course there will be a cost to doing this as after all if you make lots of profits then it is free from tax so you get to keep all of it. Futures will have the 'cost' built into the spread so they will be wider. So yes you have no 'overnight' charges as such but those costs will be built and factored into the spread. I am not going to get involved in an argument over which is better as that is a personal and individual choice. I have chosen Spread Betting for my particular circumstances and situation. I do not need permission or any agreement from you guys. I am not sure why I am bothering here as I do not even trade according to @Mark27000. Futures contracts are designed for longer term trades but the spreads will be wider thus avoiding overnight charges. If it is not for you and you do not want to pay the overnight charges then that is fine. If you do not understand why I pay overnight charges then fine. There is nothing more I wish to add, say or disclose on the IG Community.
  15. @Caseynotes, If you know anyone who applies and then succeeds in this then do share this information and let the IG Community know.
  16. @Caseynotes, How much does it cost for this privilege? Up front fees and charges? What if the trader cannot prove profitability levels as per the companies criteria and show managing risk as per the companies criteria then would they lose any upfront fees and costs? If a trader can prove profitability and prove they can manage risk then why would they sign up to this? Surely they could just go alone? The only reason I can think of is that they have access to more capital and therefore the 80% profit would be more then if they had very little of their own capital to trade? What if the trader proves the above, starts trading and fails, they still lose the upfront fees and charges.
  17. @AbDXB1345, Yes I agree. The range is still holding strong. Even if the start of the break out is on the downward side then that is fine as you can consider a 'short' position. Trends are not always upwards. They are downwards too. Those who do not trade on the short side miss out on lots of potential gains throughout the year. If it was not for the halving event, then looking at the 'daily' I would be thinking that Bitcoin was more likely to go down. I think the halving event and all the fanfare and online media attention it will get nearer the time makes me think Bitcoin will be news driven until the halving event and then I expect a major correction of gigantic proportions.
  18. Well Bitcoin is more or less at the same place as 9:00 pm last night. It is 5:00 am and no real major move overnight.
  19. @Alip, There is finger print ID when logging into IG on the iPhone. ☝️🖨️ (Above reminds me of Catchphrase)
  20. @dmedin, Just be careful posting these. There may be some on the IG Community who may get involved with such opportunities and get themselves into a pickle. I appreciate your humour which is shown by the emoji's too but you would be surprised how many may decide to give it a try out of desperation. If traders really are making losses consistently then I would be weary. I mean just the types of questions and comments I am seeing on the IG Community is worrying. It is alarming that these people even have accounts on IG.
  21. I will be interested to see where Bitcoin ends up early tomorrow morning.
  22. It is Thursday 19 September 2019 - UK time 9:00 pm and here comes Bitcoin's sharp rise.
  23. Trend-following bond traders get fingers burned as Treasury yields surge https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trend-following-bond-traders-get-fingers-burned-as-treasury-yields-surge-2019-09-11 Bonds have been ignored by a lot of traders but from a trend following perspective they have been an excellent asset to trade over the past year or two.
  24. One of the things I try and identify is where 'short covering' may take place. This is of particular interest to me where I have identified a strong breakout early on. Some of the quants that trade in milliseconds or nano seconds using algorithms may use some form of moving average crossover or there will be some parameter it has set to exit a trade. These signals and indicators will be a base for them to programme an exit execution to take place. The short covering can amplify any breakout which could be a false breakout, could face a trend reversal or even trend continuation after the breakout. This is why trend following is full of risk and managing that risk is key. It is not unusual that a trend follower may have 50% to 70% of losing trades. This is one of the reasons why I only try and identify and pick the strongest trending assets to trade.
  25. Ether is looking like it wants to breakout and hit $225 today. It is currently trading over 4% up and the chart from a 'daily' perspective is starting to look bullish as below. It is heading towards some resistance with those two mountain peaks you can see towards the 'left' and if it can surpass those two points then it will be a sign of strength for Ether. Let the battle begin!
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