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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. I like the 'Directional Movement' indicator. It is useful when looking at the direction the price is moving in and the strength in which it is moving in. For me trading in the direction of the trend can reduce risk and increase the 'odds and probabilities' of a successful and profitable trade. Of course there are no guarantees but it is all about increasing your chances in a trade.
  2. @dmedin, You make a valid point and it is certainly possible. Current fundamentals for Natural Gas are a glut in supply. This has been the case for many years now. So it certainly is bearish but it has been for many years now. I think looking at the fundamentals for the commodity you are trading can really help you understand the narrative behind the price moves. It can support or not support your trade and you can use it with the technicals to help you make more effective trading decisions. Some the key fundamentals for commodities are 'Demand', 'Supply' and 'Weather Conditions'. Also the US Dollar can play a part too. If you can see a strong narrative behind the price behaviour then it can reinforce the direction of the trade you look to execute.
  3. @dmedin, It is currently around 1850 but it is not acting right now like a strong trending downward asset. Nor is it screaming an excellent short based on more recent and current price action/behaviour. I think the majority of the downside is priced in. Of course it may go down but I am intrigued now to see what it does. From a fundamental perspective the cheaper Natural Gas gets the greater the demand potential becomes as it becomes cheaper than other energy alternatives.
  4. @dmedin, Let us see exactly how much gas is left in the tank. Just be careful as Natural Gas can be extremely volatile and turn when you least expect. It is a very difficult asset to trade.
  5. @nachonachoman, Hey have a look at my Artificial Intelligence threads. You may find them of interest. AI funds have been spectacular in my investment portfolio. They really have delivered in the last few years and helped to turbo charge my portfolio performance.
  6. @dmedin, Natural Gas was a good short from November 2019 onwards. The bulk of the move has come and gone. Of course there may be more to come but I think the majority of drop has occurred.
  7. @dmedin, When you zoom out and look at Oil on a 'Monthly' and 'Weekly' timeframe then it seems like it is trying to consolidate. Whether it does not or time will be determined by the price action.
  8. @dmedin, I can see short term Natural Gas going down to around the 1820 price level.
  9. @Senzo, Ah apologies. I see you meant charts. I see that now. 😃
  10. @bapu1, There are two words which any serious trader must not rely on and they are 'Luck' and 'Hope'. Those two words can help a gambler but a trader requires a plan, a strategy, a system, experience, knowledge, skills, etc.
  11. @Senzo, Do you mean is there a thread in relation to Fibonacci Retracement on IG Community forum? It is certainly mentioned on many different threads and you can set up one up if you wish. I have searched under 'Fibonacci' and there are a few threads if that is what you are referring to. If you use the 'Search box with the magnifying glass' on the top right of the screen then some of these will come up. Apologies if you are referring to something else and I have misunderstood.
  12. @TipTop, I am too. Trading in the right direction is crucial to my trading strategy based on trend following principles. You make an interesting point. I must admit I at the moment apply it to those assets I am monitoring the price action on. Some of them I will be trading and others waiting for certain signals/indicators to hit my criteria. I am not sure how you would be able to apply it to whole markets before entering the charts but I can see why you are asking the question. I too would be interested if this is possible but I don't think it is, certainly not on IG's UK Spread Betting platform.
  13. @cajeiwunze, If you have already seen this then please accept my apologies. Options trading https://www.ig.com/uk/options-trading What are options and how do you trade them? https://www.ig.com/uk/options-trading/what-are-options-how-do-you-trade-them
  14. It seems my 'blue rectangle' trade is still on course. If I have called this right in terms of 'directional trade' then it will be very profitable and if I have called it wrong then your stop loss should get you out. This has the potential to be a very profitable 'shorting' opportunity.
  15. Rough Rice is just experiencing a small correction as I have highlighted in the 'daily' chart below. I think now it is key to establish if the move upward will resume or will be see the high being retested and this will help us to identify if the trend is showing signs of exhaustion which may lead to a reversal or whether it continues going upwards.
  16. Orange Juice is still in its range bound / sideways and consolidation period. It is still worth keeping an eye out for any breakout on the upside or downside for any potential trading opportunities that may materialise. From a fundamental perspective there has been a large increase in Brazilian stock. However if one can watch out for extreme weather conditions which can significantly affect the demand / supply situation in Orange Juice then identify this as early as possible it can then offer the potential to trade a trend which if the direction has been called correctly can be profitable. This is one to keep monitoring the fundamentals and price action (technicals) for any indicators/signals. It is not one I would trade right now due to the price action we are witnessing but the trends in Orange Juice if you trade it right can be very profitable when they materialise.
  17. Lumber has just broken out of the pattern I was referring to as I have highlighted in the 'daily' chart below by the 'blue square'.
  18. Crude Palm Oil is looking bearish. As you can see from the 'daily' chart below that it has gone below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA's and for me the price target is going to be around its 200 DMA which is the 'gold' curve on the chart. As you can see when Crude Palm Oil reach its high that high was re tested a few times and rejected. This was the sign of a possible trend exhaustion. Then once the decline started it was the signal/indicator of a potential 'shorting' opportunity. Now some of you will be saying that hindsight is a wonderful thing but if you get into the habit of monitoring the price action of the asset you are trading or interested in trading then you can see these potential signals/indicators in real time and use it to help you make trading decisions.
  19. @dmedin, Making a directional call on a trade is an important aspect many do not consider. This is where one can look at the fundamentals in terms of supply / demand / weather conditions / economic or political unrest in a particular region, etc. With Cocoa understanding the longer term direction can be important if your shorter term direction is the same. Stop loss management is down to each individual. I am a high risk trader so I will have wider stop losses than many simply because I do not want to get stopped out due to volatility. One can look at historical volatility on an asset they are looking to trade to understand what could happen if they set a stop loss which is too tight. Of course day trading is different but I am referring to medium to longer term trading. If you look at my post from 1 February then you will see what my thinking was. I could be wrong which is fine. I do not have a problem with being wrong.
  20. @dmedin, You may be right in terms of the direction but the price action going forwards will confirm this. It may be that the lows are breached and new lows are created.
  21. @dmedin, So are you a short term trader? What is your trading style or which trading principles do you follow?
  22. @dmedin, I appreciate you are looking at the 1 hour chart. I tend to look at the 'daily' chart. There is a gap (can at times provide us with clues but no guarantees of course). Your red doji scenario is short term but when you look at the chart above which is only 3 minutes after you posted but in a different timeframe then you can see the difference.
  23. Today we witnessed Bond prices and Gold price going up as world indices generally declined. If you look at the 'Monthly' and 'Weekly' for the German Bund then you will see that the longer upward trend is still at play right now.
  24. The US 500 is showing increased volatility at the moment. The key now is to establish any 'Trend Exhaustion'. I like to look at Bond and Gold prices to see if it provides me with any clues as to how equities may far going forwards.
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