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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Bitcoin has crossed that psychological $4000.00 mark and hit $4151.70. If it can cross $4200.00 then things are really going to start getting interesting as the bulk of the downside has been done. Yes there could be a new low and we may see $2000 or so but the large chunk of the downside activity has occurred in my personal opinion. For me now going forwards the key is whether Bitcoin surpasses the $4200 level and stays above it. If it does then it is going to target at some point in 2019 the $6500.00 level. The price action will now either validate my assumption by its price behaviour or invalidate it.
  2. @elle, An interesting watch. This is an excellent example of why not to trade against the trend which is clearly up at the moment unless you are looking at a yearly timeframe!!!
  3. @Dantro, My personal basis is to start with the daily and then compare it to the weekly and monthly. Only then do I look at lower timeframes and primarily 4 hour to 1 hour timeframes to establish if in sync with direction of trend. I only use lower timeframes for day trading or short term trades. When I am trend following then I am looking at the longer timeframes more as I am going to keep the position open until the trend changes. If there are any big drops and the trade has clearly gone against me then my stop loss should have triggered and executed an exit from the trade. I always know my exit price before I enter the trade. This is a key part of my trading strategy. When I am in profit then I switch to a trialing stop so I know I cannot make a loss in that trade. I have no issues re entering that trade should trend confirmation take place. I am comfortable entering the trade as many times as I need to but at the same time I am happy to move on to the next trend should any trend confirmation not be established. I try not to trade against the trend.
  4. To add to some of @Caseynotes points above I would like to add some key ingredients which are essential for all traders even before they get to the list mentioned above: This is a list which I have created so it will not be found in any text books or social media.: Passion, Enthusiasm and Dedication for Trading Willingness to put the effort and hard work in to learning about trading Continuous Improvement in Reading and Researching (R&R) - Continuous Learning Identifying which assets to trade and focus on and developing a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system I think we all can come up with different lists in different order and there is no given correct list in the correct sequence but I personally believe that with out my list above it makes it very difficult to complete the list in @Caseynotes post.
  5. Very interesting. Will Bitcoin as a brand be anywhere in the next 15 years?
  6. @Caseynotes & @EMDE, I agree with @Caseynotespost above. @EMDE it is much harder than the article tries to demonstrate. If it were easy then we all would be doing it extremely successfully. It is hard and requires lots of effort, price monitoring, trend monitoring, etc. Using a longer term timeframe in my opinion is the easy bit when applying the MTF approach. What is difficult is when you begin analysing LTF's and this is where it starts becoming tricky due to volatility, false breakouts and false trend reversals, etc. However, it can be done and there are many who apply this successfully when executed well. If think the key for me personally is to ensure when looking at the LTF's then it is clearly aligned with the HTF's. I always try to ensure this when using a MTF approach as even if short term the trade goes against you then (based on stop loss distance) it can always recover as you are trading with the longer term timeframe trend.
  7. @Caseynotes, Yes good point. I remember I had to do something similar when I transferred my ISA a few years back.
  8. If the trend strength continues in the same manner with Gold, it could potentially see anywhere between $1360 - $1380 being hit by end of April 2019. This is an assumption based on current trend strength and momentum. For Silver I can see the $16.50 to $17.00 level could be potentially met by end of April 2019 if the trend continued in the same vein. However, Silver seems to be weakening more so than Gold so I def. see Silver as a more risker trade than Gold. It will have more volatile price movements (so for short term or day trading may be better). Gold is the less riskier and less volatile trade for a longer term perspective. Again this is an assumption based on current trend strength and momentum which is looking more weaker than Gold. I try to use assumption based modelling techniques and try and make assumptions which I then test using the price actions and trends that follow. There is absolutely nothing wrong is making assumptions and then testing them. This is a form of 'forward testing' which I actually thinks adds far more value than simply a pure 'backtesting' strategy. If I really want to see how effective my trading system is then I think it is crucial to have some form of 'forward testing'. Both backtesting and forward testing by themselves have flaws. By using them both when devising a trading system for a particular asset can be more beneficial. Offering a balanced view it must be noted that even by doing this does not guarantee any success of profits. It merely increases your knowledge, experience, understanding and odds/probability in executing successful trades.
  9. At this point I have a feeling that the US indices are looking to make new 52 week highs. The trend is very strong and has a bullish uptrend bias. One can always look for potential shorting opportunities in almost any asset that can be traded. It is not difficult for one to suggest that there is a potential shorting opportunity and give reasons why they think that. The market does not always confirm to economic theory, market expectations, expert analysis / interpretation, technical analysis, etc. Traders do not have a crystal ball in terms of knowing what will happen six months in the future. The market is a crystal ball as it is telling its participants and painting a picture of what it can see six months in the future (market discounting mechanism). I have been wrong so far in looking at a potential shorting opportunity in the US indices. When I made my assumptions there was a strong bias downwards and a strong move downwards did occur but then after this we all can see what happened. My assumptions were tested and proved incorrect. That is fine. That is how one can learn and gain valuable experience for future trades. The key was I cut my losses quickly and exited, minimising my losses. It would be ironic if we now see a monster downward move! It can happen but the one thing I keep telling myself if never go against the trend regardless of what I think or what my personal emotions and beliefs are. Never trade against the trend.
  10. Bitcoin is holding up rather well. If Bitcoin was to surpass the $4200.00 level then I think I would have to consider manually intervening and possibly closing my short. I still think the $6500.00 level is the crucial price point which will confirm a trend reversal. I have just quickly whipped up a chart with some illustrations as there are times when a visual message can say more things than lots of words. I have tried to keep the chart, SIMPLE, CLEAR and STRAIGHTFORWARD (SCS).
  11. @EMDE, This is why it is advised that new traders stick to a specific timeframe and then trade only that timeframe rather than switching between them as it can only confuse them. Are you a day trader, short term trader, medium term trader or long term trader? There are no given rules that suggest charts should run in correlation with each other. In reality they do not which is what makes trading difficult and entry points very tricky indeed. I cannot tell you what you should do as I do not know if you have a trading plan, trading strategy or even a trading system. The answer to your question should be somewhere in this or at least the information which can give you the answer. I follow 'Trend Following' principles so I stay in the position as long as the trend is in place. This could be one day, one week, one month or even one year. I have no timescale in place in terms of exiting apart from when the trend reverses and my stop loss is triggered. Therefore as long as you trade with the trend rather than against it then in theory (it is only theory) should enhance your odds on success against failure (does not guarantee) and increase the probability of a profitable trade but again I repeat there are no guarantees. Try using oscillators, moving averages, momentum, volume and trend strength to assist you in making an informed decision on entry points. There is no magic answer or solution that will work on finding entry points on every trade regardless of asset as otherwise trading would become far easier. In reality trading is extremely difficult and even the best traders will make losses and get entry points in trades wrong. I have learnt over the years that whatever strategy you adopt it must increase your odds and probability in the trade so to use parameters, signals and indicators that can help you with this.
  12. @yogitree, This seems like a bad level of customer service to me. I do not know IG's internal customer service policies and how they both manage and execute them but it really should not be difficult or time consuming in todays time to switch ISA's. I am not sure why you have to fill in an AML when looking to switch. I can understand why you would have to if you were opening a new ISA as the provider would need to be satisfied that the capital has not been derived from ill gotten gains. However you have been holding your funds with IG so surely they would have completed the AML process at the start of your journey with them, not at the end! This is like allowing a criminal to deposit criminal proceeds into a bank, pay them interest on this and then after a few years when they are looking to withdraw this capital, asking them where the money originated from!!! @JamesIG, are you able to assist @yogitree?
  13. There are two things which one must consider that is happening in relation to the Bitcoin price behaviour and Crypto's in general available on IG's platform. One is that a bottom has been confirmed and we are witnessing the beginning of an upward trend. The second is that this is just like all the previous rallies that we have witnessed over the past 12 months and is the relief 'sucker' rally which will then lead to a new low or at the very least test the all time low. Lots of different experts are suggesting different things and I have no idea who is right or who is wrong. I cannot simply rely on the online media community and publications to make a judgement or informed trading decision. Therefore I must use technical indicators to help me establish if new higher lows and new higher highs are being formed. I need to satisfy myself that a trend reversal has been confirmed. I need to use the moving averages to tell me whether a trend is in play. I need to look at the strength of the trend and momentum to tell me whether this is genuinely bullish or just plain old bull poo. Even if it is the start of a bull move and I miss out by not getting in near the bottom then as someone who follows trend following principles that is fine. It is about catching the bulk of the move in the middle so right now it is too early to enter the Crypto and Bitcoin trade on the 'long' side unless you are merely speculating, gambling, hoping or of course you are a short term trader or day trader which is actually then fine to trade Bitcoin and Cryptos on the long side.
  14. @Caseynotes, From a fundamental perspective there will be supply/demand implications. So output from SA is declining. Add uneconomic uncertainty and then price action / trends and you have a 'perfect cocktail / storm' for an aggressive trend and price behaviour upwards. I accept it does not always play out like this due to speculation, contrarian moves and aggressive short selling creating intense volatility but the potential is there for a major move upwards in Gold.
  15. It seems Bitcoin is going to go for that psychological $4000 mark which it has failed to break through on the past couple of occasions. The fact that Bitcoin has not dropped and is trying again makes me wonder whether it may do so once the US markets open or overnight and possibly during the weekend. When I used to trade Bitcoin a couple of years ago the amount of big moves that came during the weekend was staggering. It got to a stage where I had to leave a long position open on Friday 10:00 pm to reap the rewards on Sunday night when the market re-opened. The trading times have changed since then but a I noticed quite a few very big moves occurring during the weekend. I do not advise traders to leave positions open overnight or take on such large risk but that is what I had to do as otherwise I was missing all the big weekend moves. Of course it went wrong on a couple of occasions so it was a very high risk play and 'gapping' was a serious issue but I no longer trade Bitcoin in that way anymore.
  16. Palladium is performing strongly on the upside and has been since August and September 2018. August 2018 was also when the Gold upward journey began. It is all about identifying these breakouts and assessing how strong these trends are by monitoring the price action.
  17. The longer the US-China trade talks continue and the longer the matter is unclear and lingers on, the major US markets will not begin a major sell off. This will only happen once the US-China trade deal is confirmed. Up until then there will be plenty of buying, speculation and anticipation driving up US indices at at the very least sideways. The major shorting opportunity that some of us here on IG have been waiting for can only begin once the positive news is out of the way. Still no trend reversal or confirmation via price action to initiate a 'short' trade from a trend following perspective.
  18. @OceansJess, In terms of trading Gold you may wish to start off by just monitoring the price action of Gold. Just live and breathe the price behaviour of Gold so that you are fully in tune with it. Identify what happens on days it goes down and what drives it to go up. Then try and look at how you would enter and exit such a trade. What would be the better entry points? Look at oscillators and see if you can use them to try and execute better entry points. Also at the same time try and understand the fundamentals for Gold. Understand the supply and demand of the hard metal and the production and mining of Gold. Research Gold's historical performance and establish how it has reacted in the past. This by no means is a guarantee that it will behave the same going forwards but you get a more rounded knowledge on the asset to help you make an informed decision on whether to trade it, invest in it or neither.
  19. US indices are looking a bit toppy. The upward trend is looking exhausted and waiting for either positive / negative news. The US indices keep enticing potential short sellers and teasing them but the market is ruthless and its price will behave like one least expects hence why 81% of IG's retail customers lose money when using CFD and Spread Betting Call me cynical but the could the US Federal Reserve keep propping up US markets? They may know what a disastrous outcome it could be if they did not. Everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet — and how it could impact you https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/federal-reserve-balance-sheet/ The US Federal Reserve is rather vague when it comes to clearly outlining its plan for reducing its balance sheet and ending a decade long QE programme.
  20. @Caseynotes, yes it was an interesting idea and I could see you logic behind it. There has been a small healthy correction and Gold is trading $1328 at the time of this post which is down from the $1341 levels. I do think there is another leg up to come very soon as US indices are looking a bit 'exhausted' from a trending perspective and they are clearly waiting for news either positive or negative to steer them to their next destination. If the destination is downwards and it is a quick sharp move then I can see Gold providing a quick sharp trend upwards. What is interesting about this particular Gold trend since August 2018 is that it has moved up along with US indices moving upwards albeit a strong drop in this journey. There is a myth that Gold and the US Dollar cannot rise together and that Gold only goes up when the US Dollar is weak. There are instances when both the US Dollar and Gold have risen together and when some of you may want to look at what happened to Gold when this last occurred. I shall leave it at that. Suspense!
  21. @yogitree, I know this sounds obvious but did you actually ring and try and speak to someone at IG? For example customer services? What about messaging them or sending them an e-mail? If all fails then I will copy @JamesIG into this post and see if he may be able to assist. He usually is very good and prompt and if he will not be able to assist then he may know who can.
  22. At the moment Silver's chart is more similar to Platinum's than Gold's. Gold's chart is more similar to Palladium's than Silver's though Palladium has totally outperformed Gold over the last 12 months.
  23. @Pikto, When it comes to trading I can only comment on what I am doing. I am trading Gold and Silver on the 'long' side using IG's Spread Betting platform. This allows me to trade them both tax efficiently and with the use of leverage. Once in profit then you can initiate a trailing stop. Silver tends to outperform Gold in a strong bull market in terms of returns but the margin requirements are more attractive on Gold than Silver, especially when Silver tends to follow Gold and Gold generally takes the lead. This is more true when you look at the daily points increase on both. Using leverage on Gold by x2 still makes it cheaper than Silver on x1 if Silver's daily point increase is around 50% more than Gold.
  24. @OceansJess, No problem. Yes getting familiar with trends is a very good idea. Yes it is tricky. In fact it is very difficult and yes there is a lot to learn. If you put in the effort, have dedication, passion and enthusiasm then it will certainly help you when trying to read, research and learn.
  25. @Pikto, Investing and trading are both very different. You specifically use the word invest and I do not invest in Gold. In fact I do not like Gold as an asset. The only time I have invested in Gold is over 10 years ago via physical storage through BullionVault. I also invested in many years ago Merryl Lynch Gold & General which then became Blackrock Gold and General and JP Morgan Natural Resources. However, I have not held such investments for many years now. At this moment I am trading both Gold and Silver using IG's Spread Betting account. I am trading them on the 'long' side based on an upward trend and its price action. I cannot recommend any investments in Gold as I do not invest in Gold myself and I feel there are far more better investments to make over a 5, 10 and 20 year period which will outperform any Gold investment. You need to know what your investment timescale is? You need to research the different investment options in Gold and look at the performance variances between them all and conduct a contrast and compare exercise. You need to be clear on what your reasons are for wanting to invest in Gold? Why Gold over other assets and investments? The more riskier play in Gold is small Gold mining companies. I personally do not like them as far too high risk with liquidity issues. There are larger Gold producers that may even pay dividends but again I do not invest in Gold directly so I cannot really suggest any recommendation. It would be like recommending a book that I have not read or a film that I have not watched.