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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Mercury, I agree with your 'Bear' theory and the price behaviour across equities around the globe certainly support your view. There could be many on the IG Community that do know what you mean when you refer to 'Ice-Lines'. Wyckoff himself never actually used this phrase but it is an interesting metaphor. It refers to the line of support across the bottom of a trading range. The reason for the name 'Ice-Lines' is because it is like the ice covering a frozen pond. This was just for those on the IG Community who may not have heard the terminology 'Ice-Lines'. Certain stock markets such as specific indicies in the US have confirmed 'Bear Market Territory' due to a decline of 20% or more from their high. It certainly is interesting to see how low certain stock markets will go.
  2. I wanted to share some simple and basic 'Fundamental Analysis' with regards to my 'Long' Gold and Silver trades and 'Short' S&P 500 trade. The Gold price is continuing to rise as equities around the world are declining. Gold is priced in USD and US Equities are in 'bear market' territory. US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 base points. There are a lot of 'risks' at the moment in terms of equities declining, Trump's Trade War with specifically China and monetary policy. These conditions are favourable for Gold going forwards. For those who may not be familiar let me explain when a market is in 'bear market' territory. It is when a market has declining by 20% or more from its highs. The biggest worry is any 'recessionary impact' that may come going forwards. A lot of people have obtained cheap credit whilst interest rates have been at all time lows. If interest rates begin to increase then if these people have not managed their risk properly then they could be in trouble as their repayments begin to increase. Business are effected by interest rate increases too so as their loan repayments increase their costs increase which could lead to job cuts. On top of this major technology stocks have entered into a 'Death Cross' recently. Now for those not familiar with what the 'Death Cross' actually means then it is when a share's 50 day moving average goes below its 200 day moving average. This tends to signal a change in trend from upwards to downwards. I think it could take months or at least the first quarter of 2019 for this bear market to try and bottom if not longer. I have a 'feeling' that this is going to be a enormous downtrend and those who do not short such opportunities are going to miss some exceptional opportunities. These are just my personal thoughts based on my 'gut' and 'instincts'. So please do not take this as 100% likely or it is given. I could just as easily be wrong. Now in the past on IG Community traders have posted many threads and posts about 'Buy the Dips'. I would absolutely not buy the dips right now on such indices trending strongly downwards. What I would be looking to do is 'Sell The Rips'. This is the opposite of the buy the dips. During any prices rises during a downtrend one adds to their position and adds to their short position. It is being reported that indications are the more declines are likely to be seen in the weeks and months ahead. It seems the major indexes are producing new lows which gives me the impression that the worst is still to come. What makes it difficult for us traders is that volatility is increasing. This is great for day traders and shorter term traders but for anyone who holds long positions it becomes difficult with the risk of stop losses getting executed. The dynamics of the current scenario is fascinating. I never thought I would be 'Long' Gold and yet I am. Risk tolerance is declining and along with it the markets are declining. Now one could infer that the price action of Gold is making it look like a potential safe haven for investors. There is the potential of a weaker dollar which could lead to higher Gold prices. I have openly stated I am not a fan of Gold. However, I saw an opportunity to get in early on what seems to be a trending upwards movement based on price action. We have the US Government shutdown which seems to be becoming a regular occurrence. For me this creates uncertainty in the market which is going to bad for stock markets and positive for the likes of Gold. When one adds the US Monetary Policy into the mix then one can see why things are unravelling the way they are.
  3. So the market is closed and my position is open. At one stage yesterday evening I was up 100 points. I finished being up 87 points. I opened this trade on Thursday so it has been open only for two days but an excellent start.
  4. @PandaFace, How so the charges work on 'Quarterly Spread Bets'? Are they merely a similar amount to daily charges but you pay in one go at the end of the quarter? Is this how it works? With this do you have to keep a position for the whole quarter? How does this actually work? @Berrylium, excellent question and thanks for bringing this to not only my attention but to the attention of the IG Community.
  5. @Moofy, If you go to 'MyIG' and then select 'Live Accounts'. Here you will find a 'Transfer Funds' option. This will allow you to transfer from your 'Share Account' to your 'CFD Account'. I am not sure if there is a minimum requirement as when you want to deposit funds then there is a £250.00 minimum requirement. However, I am not sure about transfers. If this does not work then you may wish to contact IG's Customer Services who should be able to advise you and assist with this query.
  6. @hart, Thank you for brining this to my attention. This is the first time I have shorted indices. I have just checked my statement online on IG's platform and it shows: 'Short Interest' that I am paying IG. 'Adjustment for Dividend in US 500' that I am also paying IG. So @hart I think you are right. I have not received any credit since I opened the 'short'. Yes, the charges can be costly but I never let the costs be a primary reason as to whether to enter a trade or not. If the trend is strong and the trade is right then the costs will look after themselves. Nothing is free in life. If you want to make profits then there will be costs and fees to pay. I am comfortable paying IG's fees and costs for the opportunity to profit from trades. I think the costs only really become an issue when you are trading against the trend or the trade goes against you and you do not cut your losses quickly. If you hold a position that you should not then absolutely the costs are an issue as it will eat into your capital daily. No problem. I am happy to share.
  7. @Nelsy-Boy, I feel very relaxed about leaving the position open over the weekend. As I am trading with a 'strong trend' then I am comfortable leaving the trade open over the weekend as oppose to trading against the trend or not a strong trend then it would be possibly a different decision. In terms of Christmas break then I am monitoring the price action daily so if I feel I need to close the position before the Christmas break then I will but if there is no need as the position is hugely profitable then I shall keep it open over the Christmas break. I will let the success of the trade determine my decision as one of the key traits of 'Trend Following' is to let your winners run and not too take profits too early.
  8. The one thing to be careful about during the Christmas holiday is the 'lower than usual' trading volume which may create amplified price swings and increase volatility during this festive break. I see $42.60 being taken out on WTI. Let's see if it hits this. Also the markets love round numbers so I would not be surprise if the move continued to pass $40.00. There is a short term trading opportunity but the risk/reward does not suit my personality at this stage as I prefer longer trends than what is potentially on offer. I have missed the boat on this and that will be one of my failures of 2018. Thankfully, I have many successes but this is def. a failure on my part for not taking the opportunity to short Oil. Does anyone think WTI Crude will go all the way down to around the $30.00 area?
  9. @cryptotrader, Is that not a case of merely trading the forward contracts rather than the spot contracts? Are you absolutely sure there is no daily / overnight charge? I thought there was from memory. @JamesIG, are you able to confirm this?
  10. First of all there is a wise saying, "Never Bet Against The Trend". To support this there is another famous yet cheesy saying, "The Trend is Your Friend". This is until the 'bend' of course which could represent a trend reversal but not necessarily and that is for another post more nearer the time. So how is my live trade doing that I am sharing with the IG Community? At the time of writing this post my 'short' on US 500 is doing rather well. It is up well over 70 points. @Nelsy-Boy was worried about trend reversals. This is a valid point he makes. However, I tend to be more aggressive on short trades as from my experience short trades which are strong and they must be strong tend to move very sharply and yes there will be slight upward movements along the way but in general until a bottom is found it will continue moving downwards. Just look at my short trades on Orange Juice and Lumber this year. Also look at Oil and other indices that are trending strongly downwards. This is where experience is vital of shorting markets. When I finally exit this trade which I will at some point as the trend has reversed then I will be considering going 'long' on this trade to make money on the way up. This is an example of making money when an asset is trending upwards and downwards. However, it all depends on how strong the trend is at the time. If there are other strong trends at the time then I may choose just to take profits and simply move on. I tend to avoid getting involved in assets that are trending sideways. These would merely hold up my capital in a trade which is not making me any money.
  11. @tomcagsey, No problem. Ok at least we are clear that you are looking at investing to create long term wealth. This forms the 'foundation' of my own personal investment portfolio. I will talk about what I do personally and then you can decide how you wish to proceed. That will be your decision. First of all one must have an investment plan with a clear strategy they intend to execute to fulfil their aims and objectives. I invest in 20 different investment funds every month via direct debit. I am using a 'Cost-Pound Averaging' strategy. However, when there are any major dips, corrections, reversals, etc. I invest lump sums into these funds to assist in producing better returns for me when the funds begin to recover. I will never invest lump sums unless there is a major drop otherwise I will merely continue investing every month. I have being using this strategy for many years now and it has worked a treat and nearly every year I am in double digit annualised returns. My investment fund portfolio has never overall been in a loss since inception. It has always been in profit by using this strategy. Now that is not to say that you must follow my strategy. I am merely presenting what I actually do. I always think one must learn to walk before they can run. If you are new to investing then investing in funds, OEICS and investment trusts is going to be better than starting to invest in individual shares. That will come later. Start to build an investment portfolio. If you are young then you can invest in 'capital growth' funds. If you are approaching retirement then you may want to consider 'income' funds. I intend to switch from capital growth funds to income funds when I am more nearer to retirement. I am no anywhere near that stage yet! In terms of research this is down to what 'themes' and 'countries' you think will be successful. So for example, I am investing in Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Robotics funds. That is a theme. I am also investing in Frontier Market, Emerging Market, Micro Cap, Small Cap and various other funds. I am a high risk capital growth investor so the choice of my funds reflect my risk profile and tolerance as an investor. If you wish to build an income fund portfolio or create your own income portfolio by investing in stocks directly based on yield and income generated then that would be different to what I do. Having an interest and awareness of 'Economics' I find helps. Conducting research, reading material that can give you the knowledge to make effective investment decisions is very important. I believe in the long term 'India' growth story. Therefore, I invest in a India fund. Now there will be many funds that invest in India and you have to pick the one that you think based on costs and performance to date will perform the best going forwards. What is their asset allocation? Which companies is the fund investing in? Why have other funds outperformed a particular one you are looking at? What are the economic conditions in the country you are looking at investing in? This is just an example. You will need to carry out plenty of reading and conduct lots of research on the different types of funds available. Which investment themes do you understand more? Do you have any expertise in a particular theme? What are you views on the US economy? How do you think the UK economy will do after Brexit? What is your understanding of the potential of Asia? Do you understand the difference between investing in large cap funds over mid cap and small cap funds? What about micro cap funds? It will be a long journey with plenty of hard work but it will be worth it if you begin to create long term wealth for yourself and your family of course.
  12. @JamesIG, thanks for that. Tom's first post indicates he is a member hence he must have signed in. Tom's second post indicates he has not signed in as it is showing him as a guest.
  13. @Caseynotes, it is actually very impressive. If you look at the last quarter then the US's GDP was the highest in any of the G20 countries. 'Fronter Market' countries have higher GDP but their economic conditions are different to G20 counties. I agree that if the data is way out from the predictions/assumptions being made then it could have a major impact on both indices and fx. I recently opened a short positing on US 500. Now if the actual is higher than the forecast then it could present a major risk to my short trade. We will know more between 2:00 pm to 3:00 pm UK time.
  14. @Mercury, May I ask a question? Let's say a trend follower was riding the trend and it was a big trend. Someone using your strategy then identifies an opportunity to go the opposite direction based on the end of the trend. What I would like to better understand is which strategy would be more profitable? Riding the trend or your strategy? Which strategy would consistently make more profits? Which strategy would give you a better percentage of winning trades? Have you done any analysis on this comparison? I have not but I am wondering if you have and what the results were?
  15. @Mercury, First of all, I see you have very little Christmas spirit. I wished you and your family a very merry Christmas and a very happy new year. You did not do so the same which is a shame. At the end of the day one must not fall out over different views. Though there are things I disagree about your posts and at times do not understand them it does not mean that I must be rude to you or not be polite to you. One must be professional and act with integrity. By the way it is spelt "Matcha" and not "Macha". Am I ok in correcting you? LOL. 😂 Actually that is very weird as I am an avid Matcha Tea drinker. I drink it daily in the mornings. I only drink 'Organic Ceremonial Grade' Matcha tea. I try and prepare it the Japanese way using a Chawan, Bamboo whisk and around 70 degrees water. You should try it if you do not already drink it. It helps to clear your mind before the start of a trading day. If you do drink then I can recommend some very high quality ones. Anyway this is a Crude Oil (WTI) thread so let us not diverse. Those who shorted either Brent or WTI well done. I would suggest keeping the short open and not to sell too early. Let your winners run. I am not short Oil but am happy for anyone who did short it and happy for those who have made large profits on this trade. I agree with @Caseynotes that this will continue to go down until there is a reason for it not to go down anymore. None of us can predict what the bottom will be here but it is a fascinating example of an excellent and strong short trade. The mere fact that I did not trade it shows a 'flaw' in my own trading system. I should have identified and shorted this. This is a missed opportunity for me and therefore I cannot say that I have a strong 'edge' because of this.
  16. @Mercury, I think you take any challenges to your posts personally and find it difficult to accept any form of critique and then lash out like this. I am not blaming your posts per se. I am blaming myself for getting slightly influenced by them. That is an error in judgement from me and I can only blame myself for that. You are entitled to post as you wish. I am not blaming you but myself. I am honestly admitting (which very few do on here) that I was slightly influenced by your posts. It is not a crime for being honest. Your reaction tends to be to 'lash out'. I do not know why you think I am 'technical analysis bashing'. I give up on that argument as you strongly believe I am against technical analysis when I use several forms of it myself which my threads and posts clearly demonstrate. You may use more complex technical analysis where as I keep things simple. That is our personal choice. My trading strategy does not require any complex analysis like yours. It may be crucial to your trading strategy. In terms of stating that I do not sufficiently know about technical analysis is insulting. There is no need for that type of behaviour. You tend to revert to this behaviour when ever anyone challenges any of your posts or analysis. One must learn to accept critique. You revert to insults when you know nothing about me or my background. Then you accuse me of trolling behaviour. Again another insult when there is absolutely no need for. I wish you and your family a very Merry Christmas and a very Happy New Year @Mercury.
  17. @KatherineIG, Yes, I read that this morning about FaceBook and using WhatsApp and Cryptocurrency. I can see the logic of 'frictionless' transfer of assets made seamless and quick across all borders around the world where FaceBook and WhatApp operate. I think this is many years away and it will take many years to get there but the vision is great.
  18. @tomcagsey, Also another difference in my personal opinion between investing and trading is that investing in generally 'long only' where as trading can be 'long and short'. So investing in unlikely to include shorting where as trading is far more likely to include shorting.
  19. @Mercury, No, I am not short Oil now. I have recently gone short the US 500, Natural Gas and long Gold and Silver. I found these are a lot lower margin requirements when taking leverage into consideration. Also I think I have got in earlier on all four of those trades than going into Oil now. Having said that it maybe as @Caseynotes has eluded or the inference that I have taken that Oil will continue to go down until something happens to stop it doing so. The retrace rally is possible so one must be aware of that and take it into consideration which is why Oil now becomes a tricky short from a risk perspective. I am honest enough to admit my error in not shorting oil. I think at times the IG Community is like 'market noise'. I started reading your ( @Mercury ) analysis on Oil and I should have just ignored it. Had I not read this Oil thread then I think on balance of probability I would have most probably shorted it but I will never know for sure.
  20. @Nelsy-Boy, A note of caution is that use 'leverage' wisely and make sure it fits with your 'risk management' strategy in your trading plan. You are right there could be a retrace and this is a risk on this trade. I think watching price action daily on an asset you are interested in trading and where you have identified a strong trend is a great learning curve. You will live and breathe the asset's price behaviour and get a very strong feeling of any sharp movements and why it is behaving the way it is. You will be able to link any fundamentals to the price movement and it will really help you tune into the potential trade.
  21. @Caseynotes, I think it will slide down to the next level down. @Mercury, So you want to see any potential rally in oil early enough to profit from it yet you witnessed the rally downwards and did not short oil to profit from it? I do not understand your trading philosophy. I stated earlier on in this thread on several occasions about shorting oil and you came up with reasons why you would not short oil so this comment does not make sense to me. You then state the following: You think the next counter trend rally could be a very good short. It has just been a fantastic short that we have witnessed all the way down to where it is now. Yes, I did not short oil but that is a flaw in myself and I am happy to admit and accept that. Why was the recent enormous downward move in oil not a good short? Effective trading is all about trading the right opportunities at the right time. It is all about identifying the most profitable trading opportunities at a given time and trading the most profitable trading opportunities regardless of asset class. I was not effective as I could have been. Shorting oil would certainly be included in the above (bold). My personal view is that any next leg downwards from here will not be as profitable as the downward move we have seen to get to this price point.
  22. I just came across this article which I thought was very relevant to this thread. Trader makes $21 million bet on bear market as S&P 500 slumps https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/20/trader-makes-21-million-bet-on-bear-market-as-sp-500-slumps.html
  23. @Nelsy-Boy, In my experience it is never too late to go short on new 'lower lows' and never too late to go long on new 'higher highs'. When you state the numbers seem small I take it you mean points? If so then that is where leverage can be used and you open +2, +5, +10 positions depending on your risk tolerance, risk profile and of course capital allocation per trade strategy. I am not suggesting you are right or wrong. That is for you to determine. But ask yourself this question, why do you think you are late? Who says you are late? When I trade a trend I will exit at some point but this will be when the trend reverses and not before. So I will be in this position as long as it takes. I only entered this position earlier today. So why is it late for you but not for me? We could be about to witness an almighty stock market correction and this may only be the beginning. With leverage there are a lot of points to gain so I do not understand any strategy that stops a trader from entering a potentially profitable trade which is trending strongly. I will trade an opportunity should it present itself. Whether that asset be Cryptocurrencies, Commodities, Indices, FX, etc. It does not matter what the asset is. It is the trend and profit potential based on risk that I am trading. Also I am trading with the trend rather than against it. It is the 'middle' bit I want and the bigger the middle bit is the better for me.
  24. @elle, No problem. So far all my live trades in 'Short' US 500 and 'Long' Gold and Silver are all in profit and doing rather well. I am currently 50 points in profit (obviously the leverage amount per point I shall keep to myself as I need some privacy) on this 'short' position on US 500 which I opened only today. Sometimes too much analysis and too much overthinking can mean that traders miss fantastic trading opportunities. It passes them by whilst they analyse, think, analyse again, come up with reasons why not to trade, etc. I use my experience and knowledge but then I use my 'instincts' and 'gut feeling' within the decision making process once all my indicators are in place to confirm a potential trending opportunity. One must not underestimate the importance of 'instincts' and 'gut feeling' which will come with knowledge and experience in trading such opportunities and economic conditions.
  25. @Nelsy-Boy, No problems and hope I could help. Great thread. 👍
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