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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. US-China talks delay could provide bearish for US indices. That is certainly how they have reacted to the news today but once the dust settles and the news is digested and it is more clear what this exactly means then the US indices will react accordingly in terms of price behaviour.
  2. I think as long as Gold can stay above the psychological $1300 price level then it will be extremely positive and bullish for Gold going forwards. US-China delay in trade talks may support Gold's next move upwards.
  3. Guest Paul, On IG you can trade Gold via Spread Betting like I do or CFD's. You can also trade Gold ETF's and I think but not sure possibly Gold ETC's. Then there are Gold mining shares as well. You can use all these for medium term but you must trade what is correct for you. ETF Securities offer ETC's but there is counterparty risk with such products so beware.
  4. @pkaz, I do not have any aim for annual returns. I try and get the highest annual returns I can per annum after taking my losses and charges (costs) into account. I do make losses as that is the nature of 'trend following'. I could end up catching a false breakout or there may be a sharp and unexpected trend reversal's. These are variables which make 'trend following' difficult. It is not as easy as it sounds! If it was then all traders following 'trend following' would always be successful and wealthy. This is not the case. It requires a lot of hard work and discipline. The most effective and profitable trend followers will identify the right trends to trade. There are trends everywhere in all asset classes. One must identify the most profitable trend to trade at the right time. It could be Lumber. It could be Gold. It maybe an FX pair or it could be a Cryptocurrency. I have given this example before but if you have 10 trades and 3 of them are profitable and 7 of them are not then it seems that you have a 30% win percentage and a 70% losing percentage. Now if your 30% winners are more profitable than the 70% losers then overall you have been profitable. If we reverse this example and 70% of your trades were profitable and 30% were losing trades. It is possible that your losses on the 30% losing trades were so big (as you did not cut your losses quickly) that they were bigger than the 70% winning trades as you exited too early and did not let your winners run. Or even that you did not identify the most strongest and profitable trends to trade. Do not worry about targets for annual returns. Ensure you have a strategy that enables you to identify the trends to trade.
  5. @JamesIG, Thanks for the reminder. Will have a look this evening as will not be able to see the live broadcast. I assume it will be available this evening for all to see?
  6. @ProjengENG, Yes there could well be implications for both EM and FM in relation to quantitative tightening. One would expect a decrease in investment in those markets. When US interest rates rise can the US markets withstand the inevitable? I think in today's world of globalisation EM's are part of a diversified portfolio. They could see their allocation in portfolio's decline but I can only see investment increasing into EM's going forwards in the long term with a few setbacks along the way. This would be normal and expected. Even if EM's and FM's decline or there is a large downside then what an investment opportunity! There would be compelling reasons for investing when near a bottom for 'value investing' reasons. If this was to happen then I would like to think I am greedy enough to invest when others are panicking.
  7. @theshidoshi, Yes, I can understand you trying to reduce your fees and that is a valid point. However, your main reason for choosing a certain platform / broker should be that it offers assets that you wish to invest/trade in, the execution on the platform is good, offers good level of customer service, fees are reasonable for the value you are getting, etc.
  8. The Set-Up For Gold Looks Attractive In 2019 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237795-set-gold-looks-attractive-2019
  9. Lumber is looking to resume it upward trajectory and is setting itself up nicely from the charts for its next move upwards.
  10. Gold and Silver have both started off rather well (5:00 am - UK time). The price action will tell us if this is an upward resumption of the trend.
  11. Nothing spectacular on Gold and Silver today.
  12. Just as I think the trend is weakening the trend resumes its upward projection. As I have said that upward trends can last a lot longer than one thinks.
  13. To me the trend upwards in US indices seems to be weakening. This is normally a sign to look out for before either there is a trend reversal to the downside or a resumption of the trade upwards and it is merely pausing for a breath! At this juncture I do not know the answer. Trading in Asia will be quiet due to Chinese New Year. I must admin I am waiting for the shorting opportunity in US indices but the market at times does not always deliver what is expected. The smart trade after the big drop was 'long' but at the time of the drop the media were reporting 'recession' and global meltdown, etc. Now these things may still happen going forwards but it is about timing. Also one must learn to ignore the media and it's 'market noise' and focus on what the price action is telling us. I accept it is sometimes harder than one thinks as the media both on TV, news channels, newspapers and online is a powerful force which can influence behaviour.
  14. Gold and Silver offering the pullback (necessary medicine in a healthy bull market) to investors and traders alike to enter this journey. Using 'Oscillators' can assist in establishing an effective entry point. Trading in Asia will be subdued due to Chinese New Year.
  15. @EdFuk, If you have your trading plan and trading strategies in writing then one would assume you have done your reading and research before completing both of these? A lot of traders talk about 'backtesting' but in my personal opinion one must have some form of 'forward testing'. It does not necessarily have to be the same length of time as 'backtesting'. So for example 3 years backtesting vs 1 year forward testing. This is just an example and it really does depending on a lot of other factors including what assets you are trading and what timeframes you are going to use.
  16. @cstocks, That is fine but may I ask why you prefer paying the commission over the spread? For example how much more cost effective is it paying the commission both ways over paying the spread? I do not know the answer but it would be very interesting to know the difference in costs on the same position for both spread betting and share dealing service. As an investor I would and do not use any of IG's services. I only use them for my trading and this is via spread betting for tax efficiency. You use the word 'trading' in your original message and not 'investing'. If you are trading shares rather than investing in them then I am just wondering the reason for choosing the share dealing service over say CFD's and spread betting. You may have done the calculations and can demonstrate that it is far more cost effective to trade equities using the share dealing service ahead of say spread betting. It will be interesting to know the difference. As I mainly trade Commodities and Cryptocurrencies then the share dealing service is not appropriate for me but I can understand for equities it could be.
  17. @Caseynotes, Quite right. I agree.
  18. @cstocks, If what @AbDXB1345 suggests is correct then that is awful. In the UK spread betting eliminates such charges when taking a position on stocks but I appreciate it is not available in the US. Where are you based? Are you based in the US?
  19. @EdFuk, You state you are new to forex trading so the interference I am making (could be incorrect) that you were trading another asset prior to this? Is that correct and if so which other assets and markets were you trading? If not then are you totally new to trading per se? I have stated this many times in many threads and posts but the three things you absolutely need before you use any real money are: Trading Plan Trading Strategy Trading System Personally, I think you need to conduct your own research and plenty of reading before attending any talks/seminars. The reason being is that if you attend a poor seminar and they feed you a load of garbage how will you be able to determine the creditability of the rubbish being thrown at you? At the same time if you attend a talk which is exceptionally brilliant how will you assess the value and importance of this without having a solid foundation and knowledge in the area? What Forex trading books have you read to date? Why have you chosen Forex ahead of other markets such as equities, commodities, etc? A lot of traders tell me that they trade Forex ahead of other markets as it is the most liquid. They state liquidity as the key reason. Liquidity itself does not increase the chances of success or profits. It is the trading plan, trading strategy and trading system that will determine what the chances of success and profits are. There are times when less liquidity is better when trading certain trends in commodities as you can hold the trade for longer and it is less volatile. Volatility is great for short term traders, swing traders and day traders. Scalpers love volatility. Long term traders hate too much volatility but they need to enough for the trend to really gather momentum and strength rather than sideways price action.
  20. @KelvinTrade, Yes I noticed that too which is very obscure from IG. For me they should have clearly shown what the current charges are and what they are changing to come middle of February 2019. This way all customers know current charges and the increase, decrease or staying the same level of all assets they trade. It really is not that difficult for IG to have done this.
  21. @sonny5, First of all, how much capital you are allocating to each trade is very important. You must then decide how much capital you are willing to risk on each trade in terms of losses. This will determine your stop loss level. I assume you already know your profit target so will be exiting as soon as this is reached? It would be sensible to use the timeframe that you are trading so if you are using the one minute timeframe then stick to that for applying your stop losses. Once you become experienced you can then adapt your strategy to use different timeframes for scalping depending on the asset you are trading and the volatility when applying stop losses. For now if you are new and inexperienced then I would stick to the one minute chart if that is the timeframe for your trading and entry point. In my experience, shorter time frames allow you to make better use of margin and have tighter stop losses. Larger time frames require bigger stops, thus a bigger account, so you can handle the market swings without facing a margin call.
  22. @cryptotrader, Apologies if the Kia example did not make any sense. I have not stated anything about evidence. @cryptotrader, are you able to actually demonstrate or evidence any ETF's which have outperformed traditional Emerging Market or Frontier Markets investment funds or investment trusts over the past 1 yr, 3yr, 5yr or even 10yr? If you are then please do share with the IG Community. I am struggling to find any so I doubt there are many but if you know of any then please do share. I will keep an open mind and will personally consider investing in those ETF's which you suggest and bring to our attention. The point I am making is yes we all know about the 'extra' fund charges for investment funds and even investment trusts to a certain degree. Investing in hedge funds usually entail some form of performance fee. It is well documents that ETF's offer a cheaper and lower cost alternative to investing in those products. The question is on whether they offer superior performance and better returns? If they do then great they should be seriously considered over my examples. If they do not then I would rather pay extra fees and costs to obtain better returns as they is why I invest!
  23. I my personal experience Commodities as an asset class is very good in identifying trends to trade. In the past 12 months: Oil has seen a downward trend followed by a recent upward trend Natural Gas has seen a monumental upward trend followed by a quick and sharp downward trend Carbon Emissions has seen a strong upward trend Precious Metals have seen strong upward price movement especially Palladium and now Gold / Silver Iron Ore has seen a recent 'rocket' surge Orange Juice has seen a downward trend Lumber (my personal favourite) has seen a strong upward, then strong downward and now followed by upward trend Live Cattle has seen a strong upward trend These are just some of the trends (above) from memory I have listed. I am sure there are many more. Focussing on and concentrating on a specific asset class can help obtain the necessary knowledge, experience and specialism in trading that market rather than focussing on many different assets. This is especially important for new and inexperienced traders. As more experience and success is gained then one can branch out and apply trend following into various different asset classes. The key for trend following is to make profits on markets which are trending both upwards and downwards.
  24. Gold and Silver have not yet given some of the recent gains away which bodes well. They both seem to be holding up rather well. I think the news either positive or negative released by the US today should help Gold and Silver to either continue to move upwards or take a small tumble until the next leg upward resumes. Fascinating stuff!
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