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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @elle, I agree it is nice to keep charts simple. @Caseynotes, LOL. 😀 Do not give certain people any more ideas as otherwise there will be E-F-G and 4-5-6 and Red-Blue-Green and then back to 3-4-5 before G-H-I.
  2. @Caseynotes, Yes indeed! To the rest of the IG Community including @Caseynotes of course. My 'long' Gold trade at the time of writing though was higher earlier is currently up 7 points. My 'long' Silver trade at the time of writing though was higher earlier is currently up 9 points. I just have to make sure I add to my positions on the way up 'pyramid' as the price increases. Adding positions when the price is increase is psychologically very difficult to do as human psychology is to purchase as the price declines attempting to get better value and more for your money. Humans love getting a good deal and a discount. Trend following requires a reverse of this natural human instinct which is why even a lot of trend followers cannot add to their position as it increases. This method really helps to maximise the profit potential. As the price increases each addition to the position then is in profit. So in other words all previous trades are in profit on the position. I am sharing my live trade with the IG Community along with my thought process and rationale behind any decisions to help others get a peek at the mindset of TrendFollower. I have kept how much leverage I am using on both 'long' positions secret as I do not wish to disclose everything and be totally 'naked' to the IG Community. It is nice to keep a little bit private and personal. I am considering setting a 'Trailing Stop' with 'Distance' and 'Trailing Step' as both my positions are now profitable live trades. A trailing stop is set at a certain percentage level which you can determine. You can also specify a certain amount of points away from the current price. Now this gap is known as the trailing step and your stop will move to maintain that gap from the current price. For me the benefit of using a trailing stop is that you do not have to keep on manually moving the stop loss. However, if you do not set the level correctly then you could be stopped out in a strong but volatile trend when it is unnecessary. Currently, I just have a manual stop loss on both positions which are the previous 'main' higher lows formed prior to the recent higher lows.
  3. @Jamesh123, No problem. Spread Betting does not have to be shorter term trades. If you trade with the strength of the trend then the daily charges are worth paying if your trade is profitable and the price action is very positive. However, based on the information you have posted I would stay away from CFD's and Spread Betting for now. AIM is a different animal and beast and it is reported that around 90% of AIM listed shares are not worth investing in and are pretty poor investments that will 'gobble' your capital away. If you are new to investing then stay away from AIM for now. Learn how to crawl first, then walk, then skip, hop and jog and then only learn to run. You may want to start looking at Investment Funds, OEICS, and Investment Trusts which could give you exposure in equities with certain themes whether that be small caps, emerging markets, etc. You could even look at ETF's. Build an equity portfolio with funds first and get a feel for long term investing. Build a portfolio that can create long term wealth for you and really help your capital to grow. You are still young and have plenty of time so go for more adventurous funds which can generate serious capital growth rather than income funds.
  4. I thought some of you may be interested in this. https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/blog/2018-10-16/ready-for-a-move-higher-gold-our-outlook-to-q3-2019 The full report is below: https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/-/media/eu-media-files/other-documents/research/market-insights/wisdomtree-gold-outlook-september-2018.pdf I hope the above links work.
  5. @Jamesh123, This question is arising more frequently now on the IG Community. I just checked Angling Direct on IG's Spread Betting platform which is what I use and the facility is available for a 'Trailing Stop'. So it seems that IG's share dealing platform behaves a little differently. I just looked at the chart for this share and could not understand why you bought today? I assume you have gone long? Is it based on the news released that it increased its sales by 32%? Just beware that this is AIM! Are you 'Value Investing'?
  6. @TraderSharpe, I think the use of indicators very much depend on your trading plan and trading strategy. Based on this you will decide upon which indicators to use to assist you in making effective trading decisions in relation to entry and exit of a particular asset. My main indicator is the use of the variety of moving averages. I then use other indicators to supplement this such as 'Volume', 'Momentum' and 'RSI'. I will use others depending on the trade in question but I will not use too many as otherwise it can blur your decision making and at times confuse you. This can lead to the indicators convincing you not to trade something maybe you should and vice versa. It should be clear as to why you are using certain indicators and this all depends on your trading style. The indicators that you decide to use must add value to your trading strategy and it must be clear as to the reasons why you are using such indicators. I agree that no indicators are 100% accurate which is why no trader profits 100% of the time. It is all about using indicators to give you the best possible chance of a successful trade. It is about using indicators effectively to increase your probability of success and increase your odds of a profitable trade and nothing more. It does not guarantee that by using such indicators that you will 100% succeed in your trade.
  7. @JamesIG, Thank you very much for clarifying this point very quickly. Much appreciated and excellent customer service as usual from you. The one thing I would like to add is that maybe underneath our trading name it could state which country we are operating from as sometimes IG may operate slightly differently in other parts of the world and certain questions may be derived from such differences. It is difficult to know unless the poster specifies which country they were using IG's services from. Just a thought. So for example underneath TrendFollower you would have either England or the UK and either the England or UK Flag. TrendFollower England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 TrendFollower UK 🇬🇧
  8. @gautamhait, I do not understand the way you have wrote your question but I shall answer based on assumptions made. Firstly I do not physically buy or sell Gold. I am simply trading Gold using price action. I am doing this via IG's Spread Betting platform. However there are many ways in which you could invest in Gold such as acquiring it physically or using a company like Bullion Vault which I have done in the past. You can also use ETF's and ETN's to take a position on Gold. For the purposes of this specific trade then I have opened 'long' positions on both Gold and Silver using IG's Spread Betting platform. The benefit are the tax free profits and use of leverage.
  9. I do find this strange as 'Trailing Stops' are offered on IG's Spread Betting platform which is what I use.
  10. @hugo_boser, One of the problems I have on IG Community is that there is no way on knowing which country the poster is based in. I appreciate IG may operate slightly different within certain territories or jurisdictions around the world. In the UK, IG offers a dedicated Direct Market Access (DMA) platform. I am including the link below. https://www.ig.com/uk/l2-trading-platform It looks like you cannot get this facility on a standard CFD account. You must register for L2 Dealer. I hope this helps.
  11. It is great for establishing momentum when looking to identify potential trends to assess for trading possibilities.
  12. @elle, Thank you for firstly taking my comments positively and not reacting negatively. It is very much appreciated. I really am kicking myself for not shorting Oil. This was an error on my part. One could still initiate a short now but the risk would be higher on the trade as I feel that the bulk of the move has already materialised and we are approaching the bottom which I think will be in the $40 - $45 range on US Crude. I think Brent may have further to fall and could easily fall over $10 more from its current position. The problem is to take advantage one would need to increase the amount of leverage and if there was a counter trend reversal then it could destroy your trade very quickly and very viciously. I would not suggest this from a risk/reward perspective from current prices. Now speaking of 'Counter Trend Reversals' there could be an opportunity for those who trade using such strategies to consider the possibility of this but I would not want to trade until the price action confirms a 'Counter Trend Reversal'. I suppose it is 'Swing Trading' more or less. As someone who uses 'Trend Following' principles I would wait for the trend reversal and then at least a rise above its 20 day moving average before even monitoring or considering a 'long' trade on Oil.
  13. @Nelsy-Boy, I don't think it is a given that if 'short' Natural Gas does not work then nor will 'long' Carbon Emissions. It really is extremely difficult to call Carbon Emissions at the moment. It could continue its recent uptrend or it could 'top out' and begin it decline as it seems to be wavering against its most recent high. There is absolutely no reason why the Ichimoku Cloud cannot be used for Commodity trades. Who suggests that Commodity traders do not take much notice and respect it. I think for traders adopting a trend following strategy then it can be useful. When the price is above the Ichimoku Cloud then it indicates to the trader that the trend is upwards. Likewise then the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud then it indicates to the trader that the trend is downwards. This is ideal as an indicator on whether to consider a 'long' or 'short' trade on the asset whether that be a particular share, FX pair, Commodity or even Cryptocurrency. Also an important factor to note is when the price is in the Ichimoku Cloud then it indicates to the trader that the asset is trending sideways. You will see that this is one of many indicators available on the IG platform for its clients. I find this indicators can be useful to see what the overall trend is and also if one can establish a trading bias on the particular asset in question.
  14. @elle, you are absolutely right. 😀 I personally think if you added some rationale and thinking along with your charts then they would be much more helpful and meaningful. It would certainly enhance the value of your posts. There are times when you may be onto something but it is unclear or vague. Just a thought. 👍🏾
  15. Wow! That is a big increase. I wonder why? Do the markets suspect a big trade coming up on Gold either on the long or short side? I am long Gold and Silver but the strength of the trend is concerning me at the moment. The margins are actually quite reasonable on IG UK via Spread Betting. I would like them to stay that way as I am intending on adding to my position on any new higher lows formed going forward.
  16. @Mercury, May I ask why you are not short the FTSE 100 or any of the European Markets? The margin requirements are less so more leverage could potentially be used on those trades to maximise potential profits.
  17. My trades in Gold and Silver are hanging in there. From being 10 points down in Gold, I am now only 3 points down in Gold so a very good session today. From being 15 points down in Silver, I am now only 5 points down so again a very positive session for my Silver trade too. It is 10:00 pm UK time so the markets are closed at the time of writing this post for both Gold and Silver. I have a small loss on both trades at the moment but the trend being formed on the upside still supports a 'long' trade over a 'short' trade and the trend is still in tact. In hindsight I could have bought in slightly lower but too much waiting and analysis can sometimes make any decisions more difficult to actually enter the trade when a trend is forming nicely. I can see Gold pushing through $1250 on the new leg up and Silver trying to reach the $14.80 level. This is only assumptive analysis and the price action alone will prove any assumption correct or false.
  18. @Nelsy-Boy, There was a topic elsewhere (it may have even been you) that started discussing a trading edge. Part of an edge is not only identifying the most profitable trading opportunities whether that be in Stocks, Commodities, Bonds, FX or Cryptocurrencies but actually trading them and profiting. It does not matter what the asset class is, it is identifying what is trending strongly and profiting from it as much as possible. The large middle part of the trend would be ideal and is what I am for. So my strategy will never allow me to enter at the lowest price or exit at the highest price. It is the middle (large) part of the trend which I am trying to trade. You identified and traded Palladium so that was really good to read. I have identified and traded Orange Juice and Lumber in the past. This in itself can help to form a small part of the 'edge'. I do not come up with reasons why not to trade sometime which is trending strongly either upwards or downwards. If I am not in that trade then I am happy to admit I am not in that trade but I do not come up with complex arguments and reasoning as to why not to trade such a strong trend. The charts for Natural Gas and Carbon Emissions tell a story. The narrative is in front of our eyes. I am not going to come up with reasons why not trade. I admit I am not long Carbon Emissions and am only short Natural Gas but this potential trade idea has merit based on price action alone. At the time when I made the decision I felt the probability of Natural Gas continuing to fall was greater than the probability of Carbon Emissions making a new higher high which is how I made the decision to short Natural Gas over Carbon Emissions. Also Carbon Emissions may not make the new higher high so the element of risk was greater on that trade over the Natural Gas short.
  19. @Nelsy-Boy, Palladium has been ahead in its rally compared to other metals. The reason why I am trading Gold and Silver is because their margin requirements are a lot lower than Platinum and Palladium. Palladium has the highest margin requirements on IG's Spread Betting platform. I have capital tied up in other trades which also hindered my ability to trade Palladium. Also Gold and Silver are bigger markets with far more volume and far more liquidity. Having said that the better trade to date out of the four has been Palladium without a doubt so you have done very well in not only identifying Palladium but actually trading it. So well done on that account. Palladium is trading above its 200, 100, 50 and 20 day moving averages. I would not exit Palladium until there is clear trend reversal to the down side. One must let their winners run and not exit too early. It seems the volatility has stopped you out too early. Setting effective stop losses is extremely difficult when trading a strong trend which is very volatile. You could consider setting your stop losses around when the price goes below its 50 day moving average when in a long position as this may give you more room and flexibility. This would increase your risk of increasing your losses or you may wish to consider a trailing stop when in a profitable position but slightly wider to avoid being stopped out. The price action on Nickel which is a base metal does not support a 'long' position at this moment in time for me. It is trading below its 200 day, 100 day and 50 day moving average and is a 'whisker' above its 20 day but still trending downwards. So I personally would not initiate a long trade until there is a clear trend reversal. One could argue that if anything Nickel could continue to go down so may be a short term 'short' trade. Understanding the fundamentals behind why commodities move is very important but you may find that there tends to be a disconnect between the fundamentals and prices. Supply and Demand play an important role. I am not a fan of Gold at all. However, Gold is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages and making 'higher lows' and 'higher highs'. I try to remove my emotion and beliefs when trading and the price action supports my trade in Gold and Silver at present. This could change at any point but my decision was based purely on price behaviour even though I am not keen on Gold as an asset. I am trying to trade with the trend and with the momentum. I am not trading Gold and Silver on fundamentals at all on this occasion. It is purely a price action trade. I believe Silver at some point push on and will start to catch up with Gold. No one knows if 2019 is going to be a good year or bad year. I have absolutely no idea. I just try to trade based on the current price action as that is all I can go on.
  20. @CKCh, Apologies, but your point is?
  21. Sometimes overkill analysis can convince one not to trade an opportunity which presents itself right in front of their eyes. I am not short either but I wish I was. It was a lovely short trade. The chart fully supports this and has done since the middle of September 2018. That is three months of analysis, charts, more analysis and more charts. I ask the question in a polite way so please do not take it personally or with any offence but how effective is such analysis if it does not enable one to trade such a profitable opportunity in both US Crude and Brent Crude on the short side? Every time a reason has been given as to why one would not short Oil it has continued to go down. The previous 'five' pages on this thread demonstrate this nicely. @Caseynotes, you tend to write logical and thoughtful material. Also you are not scared to voice your thoughts. What are your thoughts on this? All the analysis on this thread has not led to a short trade which I find fascinating. All the time and energy spent yet no profitable trade on oil to show for it. Yes there may be traders within the IG Community who are shorting Oil and making big profits but may not wish to disclose but none have come forward on asking so far. I must admit I do not understand how effective any analysis with the use of charts can be that gives the reason not to trade the asset which is trending strongly? I just do not understand this unless the charts and analysis are not being interpreted effectively by those conducing the analysis. Different traders can interpret the same indicators differently. This is what sets traders apart. It is how they react and make decisions on such indicators. This makes the difference. This is not a criticism as it may be that I do not understand the high level of analysis and charting or the trading strategies are above my intellect. If so then please accept my apologies. I always think that making trading more complex and coming up with more complex charts does not guarantee or improve the chances of identifying profitable trades or actually trading and making bigger profits.
  22. @Mercury, As I have stated previously (though I accept you may not be aware) I separate my investing and trading. So I invest in 'Equities' (all around the world - no region is off limits) for long term capital growth and wealth creation. I use 'Pound Cost Averaging' and then invest lump sums on major corrections and drops. This has served me very well over many years. I invest in micro small caps and small caps around the globe, frontier markets, emerging markets, specific technology themes such as 'Robotics', 'Automation' and 'Artificial Intelligence'. I mainly trade Commodities and Cryptocurrencies at this moment in time. However, I have an open mind and will trade any asset should a strong trend and potential (attractive) risk/reward opportunity arises. I have traded Gold and Silver before but have stayed away for several years. It was your analysis and posts on Gold and Silver that got me interested and hence I have long positions on both Gold and Silver at this moment in time. I am short Natural Gas and Bitcoin at the moment. I did go long on Ripple and Stellar recently but got stopped out and the trade went against me so it was an unsuccessful trade but this is fine. I was long Lumber and Orange Juice and then short Lumber and Orange Juice earlier on in the year. @Mercury, what do you specifically trade? I have losing trades just like many other traders. For example I had losing trades on Ripple and Stellar recently. I currently have active losing trades on Silver and Gold. The key for me is to ensure that my profits outweigh my losses. Thankfully I have winning trades (both happen to be shorts) on Bitcoin and Natural Gas. It is not about being right or wrong. I may be wrong on many accounts. I actually think some of the points you make are very interesting and worth consideration. You may think most of my points are garbage. That is fine. I think it is fair to say that we will disagree on Cryptocurrencies as an asset class and its merits from trading both a long and short perspective. I think as an asset class it is here to stay. Yes, it will evolve, change and improve over the years to come but it does not seem like it is going anywhere soon. Old participants will leave forever and new participants will emerge.
  23. Thank you @Caseynotes. Totally agree with you. @Mercury, sometimes the best trading opportunities are 'bubbles' or 'mania' or what ever you want to call them. It does not matter. It is just a word. Are you able to name a single trade on indices, commodities or bonds that was a better opportunity not just in 2018 but now in 2017 so to go long in 2017 and then short that very asset in 2018? The profit potential on this trade was phenomonal. Can you actually name a better trade in these two years on the same asset? Your trade in terms of the best opportunity has not actually manifested itself. It may happen, it may not. This has actually happened over 2017 and and 2018 and the whole world witnessed it. You state you have to trade what you are comfortable with. These are just words. A trade is a trade when using price action. It does not matter what the asset is. You are entering the trade and exiting it. You are going 'long' or going 'short'. You will use the very same analysis and indicators to aid your decision. We are not talking about physically acquiring Bitcoin just like not physically acquiring Lumber, Orange Juice, Corn, Wheat et al. As I stated before the best trades are those very 'mania' type activity. You seem to be shorting what is in your opinion the best shorting opportunity any of us are ever likely to see. You do not know this. This is your opinion which is fine. Therefore you are shorting on 'hope' and require 'luck' as the price action does not support your view at this moment in time. It may well do in the future going forwards but none of us have a crystal ball. Someone like you would have had a strong opinion on Bitcoin going down from 20k levels so you would have had the conviction. I am sure you may well have a stronger conviction on your current short so time will tell if you are right on this. If a trader only trades what they are comfortable with (reason not to trade something) then they could be missing out on even participating in huge trends and some of the most profitable trends. If a trader uses certain indicators and analysis then why can this not be used for different assets based on where the strongest trends are emerging? I mainly trade Commodities and Cryptocurrencies but if a strong trend materialised in Bonds, Gilts or Indices then I would not have any issue trading them. It is about trading the best trending opportunities out there. One of the key skills is to identify them in the first place and then have the ability to execute a trade on them. Trading is not supposed to be easy. In fact it is extremely difficult. It is those traders that come out of their comfort zone which stand a chance of being hugely profitable based on the profit potential available. I accept that you cannot trade everything due to capital requirements and limitations. Therefore trading the biggest and strongest trends is not a bad strategy in my opinion. I have not traded numerous things over the past few couple of years but picked what I thought were strong (long and short) trends in Cryptocurrencies and Commodities. The question for me personally would be have I missed a better trading opportunity anywhere else than say Bitcoin in that same time period and I am not so sure I have.
  24. I think Bitcoin will revert back to the mean before the 'immense speculation' began. I see Bitcoin going down to the $1k - $1.9k levels. This is only my personal opinion. I am still positive on Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain and Tokenisation. I have witnessed large corrections before so I am not really surprised or shocked with this current correction. I have not seen anything to suggest it is going down to zero or is about to become worthless. I don't physically own any Cryptocurrencies and never have as I do not know which tokens will succeed. Therefore I have only merely traded Cryptocurrencies and still do via Spread Betting based on price action. @Mercury if you believe your own analysis and instincts then you should have profited handsomely from the 'short' trade on Bitcoin. It was one of the best short trades around in 2018. How many trades were there in 2018 that were better shorts than Bitcoin? I am not talking about individual stocks. I mean any commodity, bond, indices or major large cap share? Traders will always come up with reasons why they would not short Bitcoin et al but trading the right opportunities at the right time can seriously enhance the profitability of a traders portfolio and some of these opportunities do not come up that often. The very traders who went long on Bitcoin unto 20k which have shorted it down to current levels so they will have profited handsomely on the way up and on the way down.
  25. @Nelsy-Boy, This is a very good question and thread topic. Most traders do not even realise that to be truly profitable over a period of time then one needs an 'Edge'. Many do not have an 'Edge'. In very basic and simple terms if you are making more losses than profits year on year then the chances are highly likely that as a trader you do not have an 'Edge'. Only a few traders make more profits than losses year on year. But an 'Edge' is more than that. It allows you to have a better chance than the other traders at being involved in those trade opportunities where you can make more significant and larger profits. An 'Edge' is not necessarily trading one asset class very well, especially when there are other asset classes which could have made you more profit. In my personal opinion, one must have a trading plan and trading strategy first and foremost before even attempting to gain an 'Edge'. Those who do not have this simply have very little chance in obtaining an 'Edge'. Once you have established a trading plan and trading strategy one needs to have a system in place where you trade according to rules that will give you a better chance than the majority of other traders in profiting from a particular trade. If you follow what the books advise and all the other readers do the same and trade in a similar manner then the 'Edge' is no longer an 'Edge'. One must trade differently to the majority of the traders. It is about effectively identifying potential trades and the asset class they represent effectively. It is about trading both 'long and short'. It is about the rules used to enter and exit a trade. Even if a trader has an 'Edge' it does not mean they will be 100% successful or profitable. It is merely increasing the odds of being successful in a trade and increase the probability in their favour of doing so. It does not guarantee 100% profitable trades. Nor can you simply go into a shop and purchase an 'Edge'. It takes a lot of time, effort, research and rule testing within a trading system to even come close to obtaining an 'Edge'. My understanding is a trading edge is when a trader can successfully identity those assets within various markets that will simply give them a higher probability of a profitable trade. This could be when certain assets are trending and trading with that trend. It is about increasing the chances of that trade being profitable than it not being profitable. Having an 'Edge' could allow a trader to actually identify when the particular asset is trending and then trading those trends in the direction of the trend and certainly not against it. For me a trading 'Edge' is all about statistics and actually having a statistical edge hence why I am discussing probabilities. It is about identifying and then selecting those trades which have a higher probability of success. This is a lot harder than it sounds. The majority of traders will have no 'Edge' and will simply participate in more losing trades than winning trades or merely find reasons not to trade or present reasons not to consider certain assets and markets. For example there has been a fantastic opportunity to identify a strong downtrend in Cryptocurrencies. For those traders that truly have an 'Edge' they would have shorted Cryptocurrencies regardless of their beliefs on the asset class. They would have taken the opportunity to profit based on the price action and ignored 'experts', 'market noise' and profited when others simply found reasons not to enter the trades. An 'Edge' is important but the truth is the majority of traders will not have one. That should not mean one should stop trading. Many traders can go a lifetime and never find an 'Edge'. @Nelsy-Boy, you kind of go towards answering your own question. Those traders who are truly successful and profitable over their lifetime will have some sort of 'Edge' which means they enter and exit trades differently to the 'crowd' which is also profitable. If a trader knows that other traders or majority of are going to follow 'Elliot Wave Theory' then the big Hedge Funds and Investment Banks could devise a strategy to take advantage and profit from this behaviour. This could be their 'Edge' as they would make profits based on behaviour of the majority of traders following text book theory. These are just my personal thoughts so I please urge members of the IG Community not to take any offence.