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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. To me the trend upwards in US indices seems to be weakening. This is normally a sign to look out for before either there is a trend reversal to the downside or a resumption of the trade upwards and it is merely pausing for a breath! At this juncture I do not know the answer. Trading in Asia will be quiet due to Chinese New Year. I must admin I am waiting for the shorting opportunity in US indices but the market at times does not always deliver what is expected. The smart trade after the big drop was 'long' but at the time of the drop the media were reporting 'recession' and global meltdown, etc. Now these things may still happen going forwards but it is about timing. Also one must learn to ignore the media and it's 'market noise' and focus on what the price action is telling us. I accept it is sometimes harder than one thinks as the media both on TV, news channels, newspapers and online is a powerful force which can influence behaviour.
  2. Gold and Silver offering the pullback (necessary medicine in a healthy bull market) to investors and traders alike to enter this journey. Using 'Oscillators' can assist in establishing an effective entry point. Trading in Asia will be subdued due to Chinese New Year.
  3. @EdFuk, If you have your trading plan and trading strategies in writing then one would assume you have done your reading and research before completing both of these? A lot of traders talk about 'backtesting' but in my personal opinion one must have some form of 'forward testing'. It does not necessarily have to be the same length of time as 'backtesting'. So for example 3 years backtesting vs 1 year forward testing. This is just an example and it really does depending on a lot of other factors including what assets you are trading and what timeframes you are going to use.
  4. @cstocks, That is fine but may I ask why you prefer paying the commission over the spread? For example how much more cost effective is it paying the commission both ways over paying the spread? I do not know the answer but it would be very interesting to know the difference in costs on the same position for both spread betting and share dealing service. As an investor I would and do not use any of IG's services. I only use them for my trading and this is via spread betting for tax efficiency. You use the word 'trading' in your original message and not 'investing'. If you are trading shares rather than investing in them then I am just wondering the reason for choosing the share dealing service over say CFD's and spread betting. You may have done the calculations and can demonstrate that it is far more cost effective to trade equities using the share dealing service ahead of say spread betting. It will be interesting to know the difference. As I mainly trade Commodities and Cryptocurrencies then the share dealing service is not appropriate for me but I can understand for equities it could be.
  5. @Caseynotes, Quite right. I agree.
  6. @cstocks, If what @AbDXB1345 suggests is correct then that is awful. In the UK spread betting eliminates such charges when taking a position on stocks but I appreciate it is not available in the US. Where are you based? Are you based in the US?
  7. @EdFuk, You state you are new to forex trading so the interference I am making (could be incorrect) that you were trading another asset prior to this? Is that correct and if so which other assets and markets were you trading? If not then are you totally new to trading per se? I have stated this many times in many threads and posts but the three things you absolutely need before you use any real money are: Trading Plan Trading Strategy Trading System Personally, I think you need to conduct your own research and plenty of reading before attending any talks/seminars. The reason being is that if you attend a poor seminar and they feed you a load of garbage how will you be able to determine the creditability of the rubbish being thrown at you? At the same time if you attend a talk which is exceptionally brilliant how will you assess the value and importance of this without having a solid foundation and knowledge in the area? What Forex trading books have you read to date? Why have you chosen Forex ahead of other markets such as equities, commodities, etc? A lot of traders tell me that they trade Forex ahead of other markets as it is the most liquid. They state liquidity as the key reason. Liquidity itself does not increase the chances of success or profits. It is the trading plan, trading strategy and trading system that will determine what the chances of success and profits are. There are times when less liquidity is better when trading certain trends in commodities as you can hold the trade for longer and it is less volatile. Volatility is great for short term traders, swing traders and day traders. Scalpers love volatility. Long term traders hate too much volatility but they need to enough for the trend to really gather momentum and strength rather than sideways price action.
  8. @KelvinTrade, Yes I noticed that too which is very obscure from IG. For me they should have clearly shown what the current charges are and what they are changing to come middle of February 2019. This way all customers know current charges and the increase, decrease or staying the same level of all assets they trade. It really is not that difficult for IG to have done this.
  9. @sonny5, First of all, how much capital you are allocating to each trade is very important. You must then decide how much capital you are willing to risk on each trade in terms of losses. This will determine your stop loss level. I assume you already know your profit target so will be exiting as soon as this is reached? It would be sensible to use the timeframe that you are trading so if you are using the one minute timeframe then stick to that for applying your stop losses. Once you become experienced you can then adapt your strategy to use different timeframes for scalping depending on the asset you are trading and the volatility when applying stop losses. For now if you are new and inexperienced then I would stick to the one minute chart if that is the timeframe for your trading and entry point. In my experience, shorter time frames allow you to make better use of margin and have tighter stop losses. Larger time frames require bigger stops, thus a bigger account, so you can handle the market swings without facing a margin call.
  10. @cryptotrader, Apologies if the Kia example did not make any sense. I have not stated anything about evidence. @cryptotrader, are you able to actually demonstrate or evidence any ETF's which have outperformed traditional Emerging Market or Frontier Markets investment funds or investment trusts over the past 1 yr, 3yr, 5yr or even 10yr? If you are then please do share with the IG Community. I am struggling to find any so I doubt there are many but if you know of any then please do share. I will keep an open mind and will personally consider investing in those ETF's which you suggest and bring to our attention. The point I am making is yes we all know about the 'extra' fund charges for investment funds and even investment trusts to a certain degree. Investing in hedge funds usually entail some form of performance fee. It is well documents that ETF's offer a cheaper and lower cost alternative to investing in those products. The question is on whether they offer superior performance and better returns? If they do then great they should be seriously considered over my examples. If they do not then I would rather pay extra fees and costs to obtain better returns as they is why I invest!
  11. I my personal experience Commodities as an asset class is very good in identifying trends to trade. In the past 12 months: Oil has seen a downward trend followed by a recent upward trend Natural Gas has seen a monumental upward trend followed by a quick and sharp downward trend Carbon Emissions has seen a strong upward trend Precious Metals have seen strong upward price movement especially Palladium and now Gold / Silver Iron Ore has seen a recent 'rocket' surge Orange Juice has seen a downward trend Lumber (my personal favourite) has seen a strong upward, then strong downward and now followed by upward trend Live Cattle has seen a strong upward trend These are just some of the trends (above) from memory I have listed. I am sure there are many more. Focussing on and concentrating on a specific asset class can help obtain the necessary knowledge, experience and specialism in trading that market rather than focussing on many different assets. This is especially important for new and inexperienced traders. As more experience and success is gained then one can branch out and apply trend following into various different asset classes. The key for trend following is to make profits on markets which are trending both upwards and downwards.
  12. Gold and Silver have not yet given some of the recent gains away which bodes well. They both seem to be holding up rather well. I think the news either positive or negative released by the US today should help Gold and Silver to either continue to move upwards or take a small tumble until the next leg upward resumes. Fascinating stuff!
  13. Has the upward trend weakened? Is there about to be a quick and sharp downward move due to some major selling? The chart below is at an interesting juncture:
  14. @cryptotrader, The question now is can Lumber after any anticipated pullback continue upwards? I do not know the answer but the price action will certainly tell us going forwards.
  15. It is expected that the US Jobs figures will be a lot less than last month. Also the US indices have taken a slight turn (short term) to the downside. The question is will this be 'amplified'? There may be profit taking on Friday as end of the week. This could in result trigger stop losses. As a result of the downward pressure it could encourage new shorts to open. Now this may not happen and the US indices may continue to power upwards but the recent US Fed decision to not increase rates demonstrates to me their concern for the US economy. I am keeping a close eye on Bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper and Lumber as they usually are a good indicator pre any major stock market tumble.
  16. @JamesIG, I am not a huge fan of ETF investing as yes it has lower costs but I would much rather pay additional fees to acquire better returns. Specialist fund managers who can stock pick the right companies within their Emerging Market funds offer the potential of increased returns. I accept during downturns ETF's in this area may go down slightly less but over the past 10 years or even 20 years have any Emerging Market or Frontier Market ETF's achieved better returns over 3, 5, 10 or 20 years than actual investment funds? I am not aware of any but if you or the panel are in the broadcast and they can evidence this then this may be a question to ask. I would be very much interested in high performing ETF's which outperform in terms of returns against traditional investment funds. It is not simply about lowest cost options. When buying a car it can be cheaper to purchase a Kia as it gets you from A to B. But if you want to get from A to B quicker, be more comfortable, enjoy the drive, listen to better quality sound, have heated massaging seats then you have to pay more for a better experience car. This was just a mere example so I urge any Kia owners not to take offence.
  17. @PandaFace, Yes you are quite right. In any downturn in equities, Frontier Markets, will go down the most, followed by Emerging Markets of course. Risk On / Risk Off investor sentiment. I invest monthly into my investment fund portfolio which includes Emerging Market, Frontier Markets and many other areas. I use the 'Pound Cost Averaging' methodology. Where I have tweaked my investment strategy and approach based on acquired knowledge and experience is to invest lump sums only where there are major corrections, pullbacks, drops, etc. Otherwise I continue every month investing into these funds. Recessionary periods and economic instability are the best times that Emerging and Frontier Markets fall which is a good time to invest lump sums in my personal opinion. I have been executing the above strategy for many years now and it has served me well. I am yet to come up with a better investment strategy that is more effective and profitable over a number of years than this. Yes if you were to invest lumps sums only at the lowest point and sell that the highest point then it would provide better returns which actually doing this is very difficult without a 'crystal ball'.
  18. @Caseynotes, That is very interesting. So does this mean UK IG Clients can trade FX using US account? What would be the benefits? Reduced FX charges?
  19. @Caseynotes, Ah I thought DailyFX was familiar but could not put my finger on it. Many years ago I used to use FXCM. I may still have an account with them. It will be interesting to see the revenues generated from the US market and how much impact this can have on IG's overall turnover.
  20. @JamesIG, I have an interest in both Emerging Markets and Frontier Markets from a long term investment perspective to create wealth through capital growth. I do not want to trade Emerging Markets. I only want to invest in them and invest in Frontier Markets. I see Gavin Serkin is involved in Frontier Markets yet this GEM Chat does not really mention anything to do with Frontier Markets. Africa is the last large Frontier Market which has huge potential in the future to become an Emerging Market should it seriously reduce corruption, improve living standards, create jobs, create vibrant economies, improve education, reduce poverty, etc. I have invested in both Emerging Markets and Frontier Markets for many years now and believe these increase the chances of an investment portfolio performing better and more profitable over a longer period of time. Here are some articles which may be of interest to those who are interested in Frontier Markets on the IG Community: Frontier markets offer high growth and low valuations https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/funds-etfs/2019/01/31/frontier-markets-offer-high-growth-and-low-valuations-but-at-a-high-risk/ 'Fortune and glory, kid': the untapped potential of frontier markets https://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/news/fortune-and-glory-kid-the-untapped-potential-of-frontier-markets/a1191427 I personally like Asian Frontier Markets and African Frontier Markets. @JamesIG, I do not really have any questions but may well listen to the broadcast to see what if anything they suggest in relation to Frontier Markets. The one thing I do know is that they are long term investments and extremely high risk investments. I am not sure what if anything they can offer me so hence cannot really come up with any questions. I have been disappointed before on the Cryptocurrency broadcasts where they waffle and do not tell us anything some of us already so not know. I suppose these broadcasts are more for new and inexperienced traders? Anyway please do let us know when the broadcast can be viewed as I am sure some of us will forget!
  21. @Merly, Please do not take any of my comments personally. First of all, actively trading for a while does not mean anything unless you have a 'Trading Plan', 'Trading Strategy' and a 'Trading System'. I agree with you that the spreads on Cryptocurrencies are ridiculous. Therefore one should really only trade them when they are trending strongly otherwise it is like throwing your money away. One should trade the strong trend and let their winners run and not exit too early. On the flip side one must exit their losers very quickly. The smart trade over the past 12 months has been to short all of the Cryptocurrencies that IG offers. If one had just held their positions for 12 months then even after any charges their positions would have been extremely profitable. IG's Spread Betting platform offers 'Trailing Stops'. I would not trade profitable positions without them. I only use my profits from my investment portfolio to trade and have adopted this strategy over many years. 19% of retail investors make money when spread betting and using CFD's on IG's platform. What would be interesting is to understand over what period of time this statistic relates to? How many traders does this include? Breakdown of assets they are trading would be useful. This vagueness from IG shows a lack of transparency. No one forces anyone to use IG or any other trading platform for that matter. We all do so on our own accord. If we do not like IG's platform then we should not use it. What may not work for one may work rather well for another.
  22. @Caseynotes, That is interesting. It seems IG has sensed an opportunity in the US.
  23. One of the key things to do is identify whether the trend weakens. If one does notice then one must follow the price action to determine an entry point for any potential 'short' trade. At the moment for me if the US 100 goes above the 7072 level then this could be a more serious rally than I thought rather than just a relief rally but we shall see. I have no idea which way this will go but the Fed announcement along with if there are positive US-China trade talks with positive earnings we could continue with this rally for longer than one envisages.
  24. The US Federal Reserve announced it would not be raising interest rates. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/us/politics/fed-interest-rate.html https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-january-meeting-2019 Traders add to bets against further Fed rate hikes https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-futures/traders-add-to-bets-against-further-fed-rate-hikes-idUSKCN1PO2OG
  25. I would not suggest going 'short' just yet but be ready for any trend reversal as this will be a nice shorting opportunity when it arrives and it will as profits are taken, stop losses triggered and new shorts opened. This will lead to a sharp drop amplifying the move downwards as so often seen in commodities. The commodities market has always had a reputation to entertain the speculators!