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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @elle, Looking at you chart it shows the 150 EMA scoping downwards which supports a 'short' trade. The risk in this trade is the extreme volatility at the moment which is why I am looking to trade this based on the longer term trend and a longer time period.
  2. @Nelsy-Boy, Excellent. Nice to keep a 'sense of humour'. I like it. Arigatōgozaimashita
  3. In hindsight (which is a wonderful thing of course!) a better entry point for the second trade (addition) to my original position may have been around the current price and now when I look at it I clearly added a second position too early. With profit taking (today) it could well have presented a better opportunity to add to my short but it the current 'rally' reverts back to the downward move then I would not have been a millions miles away. If the S&P continues to rally then it would have been an error on my part and I can then only blame myself. If the trade moves against me then I face the danger of being stopped out and making losses on both trades combined though I am still in profit on my original trade and a loss on the second addition to my trade. I shall update this thread on my latest points on each trade when the market closes today. It may be tomorrow morning or afternoon as I will be enjoying myself at a New Years Eve party. 😉
  4. There may be profit taking with it being 31st December 2018 as the market approaches closing time hence why stop losses cannot be too tight as otherwise traders (trading a longer term trend) will simply get stopped out.
  5. @Nelsy-Boy, Many traders do not realise how important good quality sleep is when trading markets. One needs proper sleep so that the mind is in tip top condition and is fully charged up to deal with what the markets may throw at them. I think it was @Mercury but cannot remember for sure mentioning Matcha. Jokes aside I drink a good quality of 'Organic Ceremonial Grade Matcha' every morning. It has to be both Organic and of Ceremonial Grade which is of a higher quality. Japanese buddhist monks drink Matcha to aid with their concentration during meditation. I drink it in a 'Chawan' and make it using a Bamboo whisk with water boiled at 70 degrees. I do not start the day without drinking a good quality Matcha in a Chawan. I work full time for a living as well as being an investor in start up businesses and an investor full stop. On top of this I trade so good quality sleep and Matcha are my secret weapons.
  6. @Mercury, Yes thanks for that. I too am looking to 'Buy the Dips' but want to try and buy when new 'Higher Lows' are formed on both Gold and Silver. I have not added to these positions yet but that is my strategy on these particular Gold and Silver trades. I agree with your post. It will be interesting to see if when we both add to our positions using slightly different techniques and strategies what the outcomes are as they may be more similar than we think. It will be interesting to see. The key will be not to be stopped out unnecessarily due to the volatility and corrections based on profit taking and selling (closing long positions). I think for the trend to get even larger and stronger new participants on a larger scale such as institutional money opening new longs or adding substantially to existing positions will certainly assist. Also when 'Trend Followers', 'Speculators' and 'Hedge Funds' start becoming more aggressive and begin adding to their positions we could see a serious 'amplification' of the Gold and Silver trends with a strong upward movement.
  7. @JamesIG Thank you for a much better explanation. That makes more sense to me. I sense things are improving albeit slowly and this will take time. Based on what I am reading (if it can be believed and is credible) then things are moving in the right direction and positively in relation to Cryptocurrencies so hopefully 2019 should see a lot of improvements in the things you mention.
  8. @Kodiak, I still think there is potentially more movement downwards to come. I think we have seen potential head and shoulders before in Bitcoin. I would not want to go long any of the Cryptocurrencies until the price behaviour leads to clear signals and indicators and even then it is extremely tricky. I went long both on Ripple and Stellar a while back and made losses on both even though the price was above the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages and may have even crossed the 200 too but that still did not enable me to participate in both successful and profitable trades. The error I made was ignoring the long term trend which was down. I should have known better with my experience and knowledge and yet I still made that mistake. The long term trend needs to change before I start going long on any of the Cryptocurrencies. If this means I miss out getting in at the bottom or earlier then so be it. I want to catch the middle 'big' part of the trend.
  9. @Mercury, Yes totally agree with the above. I hope you had a good Christmas and wishing you a very happy, healthy, prosperous New Year in 2019.
  10. @elle, That is interesting the 150 EMA. Yes, I know a lot of traders who use this with great success. Moving averages tend to 'smooth' the price action data. I tend to use 20. 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. There can be false breakouts which is a risk in solely using moving averages. A lot of people applying trend following strategies tend to focus on just the price crossing the moving averages. This would be very simple and too easy. For me I look at how the moving averages line is shaping up. So for example on a long trade I want to see strong curve upwards and for a short trade I want to see the moving averages curve move strongly downwards. This is what I did on my Gold trade recently. When the 20, 50, 100 and 200 are all sloping upwards like they were in Gold it shows me that the trend is far stronger and a much more robust entry point. I must admit sometimes due to momentum indicators and wanting to get in early I don't always wait for the price to cross the 200 as there are times when I enter a lot earlier. The key is how the moving averages are sloping and more specifically which direction they are sloping. The MACD is very useful as it very useful for trend followers and to gauge momentum. I like the RSI too.
  11. @Nelsy-Boy, The other option is to be a 'Contrarian' trader which is to go opposite of the market sentiment and trade once it has topped. This requires great skill, experience and exceptional timing. This is extremely difficult though that does not mean it is the wrong trade by any means. Trading is difficult and it is very difficult to be a successful and profitable trader. This is one of the reasons why I adopt a 'Trend Following' strategy as it easier to implement a trading strategy for me based on my skill set, experience and knowledge. It does not mean it is necessary the best or most profitable strategy but it works for my personality and ability. It also enables me to trade on 'herding behaviour', speculation and bubbles. Trend Following has become more and more popular in recent times and this means large and strong trends are becoming more frequent so the there is always an opportunity to trade one asset or another on either the long or short side. Trading with the trend increases my odds and probability of a successful trade though by no means guarantees it if there is a strong trend reversal or it is a false breakout, etc.
  12. @JamesIG, Are you or IG able to offer any insight into which Cryptocurrencies IG clients were trading the most (both long and short) since (after) the introduction of Stellar, EOS and NEO?
  13. @elle, 👍 I always find that keeping charts simple and basic can be at times more effective and offer more clarity. As you can see you chart is telling a 'narrative' for those who are interested. The chart is now showing more factors to seriously consider when deciding upon a trade or not.
  14. @JamesIG, Your post is fundamentally flawed. Let me explain why. Markets go either up, down or sideways. Now many traders will either profit when markets are trending upwards or downwards. Your post has an upward trending bias. Markets move downwards and one of the main points of Spread Betting and CFD is allowing the client to take short positions and profiting using leverage. We have just seen a humungous bull market on the downside for Cryptocurrencies over the past 12 months. That is for some, 12 months of shorting Cryptocurrencies and profiting. Yes your answer is wishy washy and speculative, that bit I do agree with. However, no it does not give me an insight into the reasons behind the level. If you had stated that IG had to manage their risk and had to ensure they did not lose out if traders executed the correct trades on Cryptocurrencies and went long during uptrend and short during downtrend so it would limit the potential losses for IG then I would have understood. I wish you a very happy new year and a very healthy and prosperous 2019.
  15. @elle, You may wish to consider using any of the following or even a combination of: Moving Averages Exponential Moving Averages Weighted Moving Averages Volume Weighted Moving Averages This will add some real value to your charts as it will include and show how the current price action is affecting any details on the charts. You then may wish to look at other important supporting indicators like: Volume RSI MACD Parabolic SAR Momentum These is my opinion can all help to go into the 'basket of evidence' to aid in any decision making. If you get a chance have a look at some of these indicators / signals and apply it to the Gold charts and you will begin to see why I am trading Gold. Now these indicators do not guarantee any form of success in the trade or guarantee any profits from the trade. What they do is support my view of going 'Long' Gold and support my decision by simply increasing the 'Odds' and 'Probability' of Gold continuing to trend upwards, though no guarantee.
  16. @Nelsy-Boy, I am currently short on Natural Gas from the 4100 level. It is currently 3086. So this is nearly 1000 points. Now add leverage and you can see why the profit potential per point is a very attractive opportunity from a risk/reward perspective. I do not have a target in mind. It could certainly go downwards to 2800 levels and below but I do not have a 'crystal ball' and I do not know what is going to happen in the future. I shall remain in the trade until the trend reverses. Commodities market is rife with speculation, trend followers and hedge funds all amplifying moves when a Commodity is trending strongly upwards. Therefore I expect a sharp drop and downward move afterwards and it is about being ready to short some of these opportunities that present themselves.
  17. IG have posted an article today from @MichaelaIG. It contains a clip at the bottom which I have included below. The IG Analyst must have read this thread and my posts on here. LOL. 😂
  18. @elle, Past performance (historical) does not mean future performance will be the same. If this was true then Cryptocurrencies should see an almighty rally making new highs! LOL. You use the word 'chance' well there could equally be the 'chance' that it does not react to the parallel lines. I am being '****'s Advocate' of course. Did you create the lines on the chart yourself or is the chart created by someone else? For me are there any other indicators or signals that increases this chance? That is the key question, line and chart. What other indicators and signals can support any 'current' price action to increase the odds and probabilities in your favour when placing a trade?
  19. @MichaelaIG, The IG Analyst on the - Outlook 2019: Gold could return 25% next year - video must have seen my 'Gold - Potential Long Trade' thread on the IG Community. He seems to have been inspired by my posts! LOL 😂
  20. @elle, I am making an assumption that you mean you have no position in Gold. I had to google 'FWIW' so I am making another assumption it means - For What It's Worth? Would I be correct? What are you trying to show us on the chart? Are you able to expand or explain?
  21. @Nelsy-Boy, Ok in that case if I was not going to use 'Trailing Stops' and then how would I set my stop losses in a volatile market? I would use price action and moving average indicators to assist me. So you may want to look at when the price reverses on a long position and goes below the 20, 50, 100 or 200 DMA depending on your risk management strategy. For day traders the stop losses will be pretty tight. For longer term trend traders they have more flexibility and can have wider stop loss range as long as they are trading with the trend and that trend is strong and bullish. My Silver trade is doing twice as well as my Gold trade but they are both doing well and as I expected. Both are in profit. Yes, I will keep on updating on this thread with how both trades are doing. It will be very interesting to see how long I am in this trade from a 'Time Period' perspective. It could be days, weeks or months. Who knows?
  22. @CAPABILITYBROWN, Why would you want to place a trade on a specific date in the future? You can complete 'Limit Orders' on 'Points Away' or 'GBP Profit'.
  23. @ROUGEONE, What about the following 'Tokens' which are heavily traded like: Tether Dash Qtum Zcash Tron Golem Cardano Monero IOTA Factom IG will only trade the biggest by market cap that offer the greatest liquidity. They will also look at their own risk and only offer certain Cryptocurrencies that meet their specific requirements from a 'risk perspective'.
  24. @Nelsy-Boy, Congratulations on entering the 'Long' Silver trader. I can offer my opinions and thoughts but you must conduct the necessary research and reading along with analysis to come to your own decisions. You must not just blindly follow any of my thoughts or opinions. When I am in a profitable trade I switch from a traditional stop loss to a 'Trailing Stop Loss'. You may wish to consider a 'Trailing Stop Loss' but I would strongly urge you to conduct some reading and research first. This will eliminate the need for you to manually move your stop loss as the trade moves in your favour. You can set 'No of Points'. The way you would do this on IG's Spread Betting platform is to go to 'Stop' and select the 'Trailing' option. This will then give you the option to pick the points distance and the 'Trailing Step'. This part will tell the stop loss when to move upwards. You must do some work on this part and include it in your trading strategy. I hope this help. May I ask are you also 'Long' Gold?
  25. @ROUGEONE, The risk would be that the positions would be reduced accordingly to bring down below £250k. I should just add this is for both CFD and Spread Betting. Also the use of leverage will bring many traders either short/long Cryptos on a strong and bullish trend either upward/downward close to such levels if not exceeding them. This is where alternative brokers would need to be used.
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