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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. There seems to be short term support at around $3800. It seems to be waiting for some form of news to help it move!
  2. 5:00 am - Gold is up over 3 points and 0.25% 5:00 am - Silver is up over 8 points and 0.55%
  3. I have read several reports indicating that Bitcoin is in a strong consolidation period and the reports are inferring that this is prior to any move up. One could argue that the consolidation period may be prior to any move down. There is no real trend to trade in Bitcoin at this moment in time. This could be a positive for Bitcoin as the volatility may be reducing and the wild swings and large moves up and down could be declining.
  4. The recent rise in Gold prices has not continued. Now in my experience this could be simply down to short covering activity. This is an assumption by me as I do not know for sure but it would not surprise me. To me the short term trend is down. There will be a lot of traders using technical analysis to predict / assume how the price will react. The market knows and understands this. The professional traders know this. The best Commodity Hedge Funds know this and is most likely to be programmed into their trading system. As a result I am not expecting Gold to follow the conventional rules that technical traders will be hoping for in terms of Fibonacci retracements, etc. Now I could be wrong so I will use this opportunity to test my assumption by following the price action to see how Gold's price behaves and what happens.
  5. Palladium is still showing signs of strength in its upward trend. All four 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA curves are sloping nice upwards which to me personally is a bullish sign. I include the chart below to illustrate this point. Now what could happen next is possibly a continuation of the uptrend or a very sharp drop which is very common in Commodities. This asset class tends to attract a lot of speculative trades hence why trends tend to last a lot longer upwards and come crashing down quickly and sharply for fantastic shorting opportunities.
  6. I am not saying that using 'Support and Resistance' cannot be effective but I personally do not use them in my trend following system. I am sure others use them and they may well be very successful using them. Some of you may find this interesting. Some of you may reject this which is fine. Some of you may not be sure but it will certainly make you think from the Turtle Trader website. Do You Really Think All of the Indicators Will Help You Win? https://www.turtletrader.com/entry/
  7. I have been keeping tabs on Sugar since I started this thread. There may be a slight opportunity coming but I shall carry on monitoring the price action to see if it can hit that psychological 350 mark and if it does then how it reacts. Right now the price seems to be trying to stay above its 200 DMA which seem to be a good support level since the end of November 2018 onwards. If the price can manage to stay above the 350 mark then it will cross its 20,50 and 100 DMA. Right now none of the MA curves are sloping upwards which means there is very little bullishness about Sugar right now. An an investor one could take a contrarian view and I have done that before as an investor and built up positions over a period of time. However, as a trader, I like to trade with the trend and that trend needs to show some strength and momentum which I am not seeing in Sugar.
  8. Just look at the US indices go today! A wave of blue across the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq.
  9. @wjw22, I just had a quick look at the chart and can see why you would be planning to short. There seems be the potential for around 300 to 500 points on offer. This is potential of course. From a trend following perspective the current price is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA so I personally would not short but some more aggressive and adventurous traders may carry out what I call an 'Anticipation and Assumption' trade. This would allow you to get in early and if the call is right then profits could be maximised but this is not part of my personal trading strategy. I do know lots of successful and profitable traders that do this. They do not get them right all the time but boy when they do they can make large profits quickly. I have in the past executed these types of trades but some I have got right and some I have got wrong. They are more risky trades with a hint of speculation in them. You have the set up for a nice short but if further downward price action occurs then it will be quick and sharp so be ready for an exit as per your exit plan! It is a FTSE 250 company so a mid cap stock. Just be careful. I have seen many times when these stocks seem primed for a short move end up going up with bursts of lower prices along the way but the general trend being upwards. This includes sideways activity and then capital ends up being in a trade where the price is not moving with your short trade but against it. Do let us know if you decide to execute a short trade and how the trade goes.
  10. Lumber is showing another 1500 points up at the time of writing. Lumber has been one of my favourite and most successful trades recently both on the way up and on the way down. If it clears $43647 level then it could attract a lot of long positions. Fundamental Perspective: From a fundamental perspective any trade deal between US and China could result in industrial commodities increasing in price and one may expect Lumber to increase too. Having traded Lumber on both the 'long' side and 'short' side in recent times I accept that liquidity can be an issue. Lumber is not one of the most 'sexiest' commodities to trade but it sure has been one of the better trends both long and short. The strength of the trend and momentum was exceptional. Dr. Copper is widely reported in the media and how it can be a good economic barometer. Lumber is my personal opinion is no exception. Lumber prices can be a good indicator for housing construction in the US. When house sales increase, the price of Lumber increases too as a result of Supply and Demand. We all know the pressure the US and Trump are under to increase new housing construction. Also lower interest rates can also inject some further upward movement in Lumber prices. Also one must not forget that the US winter season is nearing an end so US construction should in theory increase which again could lead to an increase in the demand for Lumber and thus rising prices. Technical Perspective: From a technical perspective, Lumber has shown positive price action in relation to volume over the past four days. This is an encouraging sign. The momentum is not quite as strong as I would like but it could well pick up over the coming days and weeks. The current price is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. This is also a positive sign. On the flip side is that the moving averages curves for 200 is sloping downwards which indicates it is still in a longer term downtrend. The 20 DMA is showing downwards to sideways activity and the 50 and 100 are showing slightly upward sloping tendencies. It is still very unclear at this stage which makes any trade in Lumber high risk with so much uncertainty with the US and China trade talks. The price is showing above the Parabolic SAR which is a bullish indicator but can be perceived as meaningless without considering other factors. However for Lumber it can provide a good point when one tries to set stop losses. Price Action is King: In my personal opinion, price action is king. If one can follow the price action of Lumber, live and breathe its daily price behaviour then it helps to really understand what is happening with Lumber can any information and data can be used to make an informed trading decision. In my experience if your stop loss is too tight then the volatility will merely stop you out, such as the large price swings. From a trend following perspective one must set wider stop losses but for this one will need nerves of steel and a large amount of capital. Anything else will make it extremely difficult to take advantage of the points on offer here. Swing trading and Scalping could be effective and day traders could find joy but for me it is all about riding the trend for as long as possible and maximise any returns that are potentially on offer.
  11. Thanks @Caseynotes. I just had a quick look and it is not on there yet but I am sure it will be soon.
  12. @Caseynotes, Yes. There seems to be weakness across the board on Crypto’s that IG are offering. There is no positive news to drive the Crypto market at the moment. Even Stellar gave back some of its gains it made over the past few days. There could still be another leg downwards which is still a distinct possibility. The only positive is that the sharp moves upwards are getting smaller which could be an indicator that we may well see a bottom confirmed in Bitcoin at some point this year in 2019.
  13. @Caseynotes, Very interesting. It’s a shame the date has passed but would be interesting to know what is discussed.
  14. Are there any traders who follow trend following principles on the IG Community? If so then it would be good to discuss potential trading ideas and possible improvements or amendments to our trading strategies and trading systems. I tend to trade trends on Commodites and Cryptocurrencies. I would be interested in hearing from anyone trend trading Commodites.
  15. @Mcg, Yes I largely agree with your comments. I think we are all trading differently and have different strategies and systems. My own personal trading strategy and system is based on trend following principles with my own adjustments and tweaks. My trades can last from a few days, few weeks to a few months. I have no predefined exit on my winning trades apart from when my trailing stop loss is triggered. However, I do have a pre determined exit on my losing trades due to my stop loss. You seem to place quite a few trades and may be more of a day trader. I may only trade a few times a month so my frequency is a lot less. I now better understand your trading style so will bear this in mind for future discussions. I totally appreciate that trend following is not for everyone and there are not many trend following traders that have made themselves known on the IG Community. I am most probably the most well known and frequent poster using such principles. There may be others that I am not aware of.
  16. @Caseynotes, Well put. I could have worded it better. If you were to look at the number of losing trades that I have then it is far greater than the number of winning trades that I have over a reasonable long period of time. I am open and honest enough to admit that I make plenty of losses. I learnt early on that one must embrace losses and not be scared of them. In amongst all these losing trades, I have some big winning trades and it is those big winners that really allows me the opportunity to make more profits than losses. It is extremely hard and certainly not easy. My strategy does not rely on support and resistance as that would eliminate a lot of big trading opportunities which go on to become strong trends. I agree with your post. Well explained.
  17. @Mcg, Once you physically open the FTSE trade then please do share if you feel comfortable or you may want to set up a new seperate thread where we can follow your live trade. You could then drive this thread based on your specific trades. I think that would be great for the IG Community. However only if you feel both comfortable and confident in doing so. Many do not. They like posting, making suggestions, sharing but cannot share a live trade because of fear of failure. If only trading were that easy that you could follow certain indications and theory and be profitable the majority of the time. It is extremely difficult. At the moment you state ‘would’ and ‘might’ and these are merely words which represent vagueness to me. Do not feel like you have to respond to me. I think the way to demonstrate you are right is by sharing a real, physical and live trade and then we can all learn in real time and follow your rationale behind your entry and exit points.
  18. @Pikto, It will be worth keeping an eye on Gold and following its price action both closely and carefully. Try and monitor how it behaves on certain news. Try and see if it behaves like you think it will or actually the opposite? US news both positive and negative is a driver for Gold price action in my experience. Watch the US Dollar along with Gold and what how they both behave.
  19. This week will be rather interesting and I expect there to be lots of volatility not just throughout the week but throughout the day. Swing traders may find lots of potential this week.
  20. I would just like to offer a balanced and bias neutral view and share an article which actually goes against my arguments for investing in Artificial Intelligence from the Financial Times below: Europe’s AI start-ups often do not use AI, study finds https://www.ft.com/content/21b19010-3e9f-11e9-b896-fe36ec32aece
  21. Bitcoin just cannot stay above $4000 which is not a bullish signal to me. It seems it will need a catalyst to get there but I am not sure what that could be. Bitcoin ETF news is rather quiet. There are other Crypto's with faster transaction times. It seems to be slowly losing some of the 'edge' it once had. Reputation alone will not get Bitcoin to move higher. There needs to be more substance.
  22. @BERT13, Yes. On IG's UK SpreadBetting account it is US Tech 100 under Indices. A lot of people ask this question or a similar one and I do not quite understand why IG did not just call this Nasdaq and why specifically call it US Tech 100? Also the S&P 500 is called US 500.
  23. I think the Crypto's are taking it in turns in having high performing days. Today it is Stellar. Yes it is Sunday but Stellar is up around 13% at the time of writing. Litecoin had a stellar week last week. My prediction is that Ripple should have a stellar day tomorrow and this coming week. This is just based on lack of price action and activity compared to the others. It should have at least one to two days of positive large price gains in the next few days or so.
  24. There are a lot of questions being raised about margin calls. Some of the reasons why a margin call are made are: Trader does not have sufficient capital in their trading account (not sufficiently funded based on their trading activity) Issues with capital allocation on trades (risk management) No stop losses being used or ineffective stop loss management (risk management) Obviously there will be many other reasons but an effective trading system supported by an effective trading strategy should really never experience a margin call. How you avoid margin calls should be in your trading plan.
  25. This morning it seems Litecoin may be looking at a move down. It could be profit taking, it could be new shorting opportunities or the selling could lead to stop losses being triggered. It seems this morning Stellar is the 'flavour of the day'. I actually predicted that Stellar would have its turn due to the price action on all the other Cryptos. My prediction was both Stellar and Ripple will have some positive price action in line with the others that we have witnessed recently. It seems they are all fighting and jostling but Litecoin is ahead of the current race at this moment in time.