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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Caseynotes, Thanks for this. Much appreciated. I have just opened a 'long' position on Gold at $1248.96 and a 'long' position on Silver at $14.68. These are initial small positions and both are via 'Spread Betting'. I will then add to my positions as the price increases and if the trend reverses or the trades go against me then I will be out, attempting to minimise my losses. I am sharing these two live trades with the IG Community as I think to really increase the value of this IG Community this is needed and necessary. If I exit these positions then I will try and explain why I exited the positions. If I add to my positions then I will try and explain my rationale behind such decisions.
  2. The problem I have this morning is that Gold could continue going upwards and my prediction of a higher low around the $1225 - $1230 level does not materialise or it does indeed correct. Now if the latter happens then I know exactly what I am going to do. However, if latter does not happen then what do I do? Buying with the strength of the move means that you are buying with the trend in this case. I will keep a close eye and may have to adapt my strategy depending on the price action going forwards. I may not be fortunate enough to get back in at $1225.00 to $1230.00 levels in which I case I need a clear strategy and plan in terms of how I enter this potential Gold trade. For me if Gold was to revisit $1250.00 then I would buy into this strength and initiate a long position.
  3. @gautamhait, It seems Gold has made a new higher high. This repeated pattern can be used to conduct any predictive analysis which is merely assumptive based on historical price action. It does not necessarily mean that future price action will perform the same way. As I have stated in a previous post in this thread that I think a new higher low will be made around the $1225 - $1230 level. If this happens then I will be initiating a long position and then add to my position as the price increases near around the next higher low level. There is risk in this particular strategy as if the next higher low is the beginning of a trend reversal then it could eat into any profits so one must monitor price action on a regular basis and basically live and breath the price acton of Gold whilst in the trade. In terms of price target I do not have one and nor can I even predict one for Gold. I am just letting price action tell me the 'story'. I personally think that if Gold can stay above $1250.00 then it will try and go for $1300.00 as Commodities love round 'psychological' numbers and the Hedge Funds, Speculators and Trend Followers will ensure it gets there. So my price target would be $1300.00 in the first quarter of 2019 or at least by the start of the second quarter of 2019. Please do not take this target with any certainty as I am merely answering your question. I do not know what will happen going forward and I do not have a 'crystal ball' but upward trends tend to last a lot longer than one thinks. The aim is to stay in any long term trend as long as possible and only exit when there is a clear trend reversal. In this instance the trailing stop should execute a nice profitable exit.
  4. Gold hit $1251.42 and is now trading at time of writing $1248 so it will be interesting to see if this goes down towards my target now?
  5. @cryptotrader, I hope traders have been shorting Cryptos and holding on to these short positions rather than selling early. If you have given up on Cryptos after January then you may wish to change your name from Cryptotrader to something else? Just a thought as you do not seem to be trading Cryptos on the short side but please do correct me if I am wrong and you do hold short positions. People can be biased on the negative side of Cryptocurrencies so it works both ways. Why would you not touch it as it goes below all the moving average (different timeframe) indicators and shorting such Cryptos? The one thing I continuously see on the IG Community is traders looking at 'long' trades. I just do not see enough discussion on 'short' trades especially when the price action and behaviour is telling us a very strong narrative and story. I am positive on Cryptocurrencies as many of you will know but one simply cannot argue against the downward trend and downward price action / behaviour. So therefore as a trader one must 'short' such opportunities. I do not quite understand your puts up hand - cries comment. What are you specifically referring to?
  6. This question has arisen several times now by different members. I remember posting such a question myself around a year and a half ago. You may find answers provided by IG on previous posts. Ideally you would want the Crypto markets to be open 24 hours and we may get there but in terms of other asset classes such as Shares and Commodities are all shut at some point within the week. Crypto is open longer during the week than Equities and Commodities so from a trading perspective that is great.
  7. @cryptotrader, it is an interesting question. The obvious is that some of IG's competitors offer lower spreads. This in itself does not mean they offer a better platform or a better service. For example how many have anything like what we together have created here - IG Community? I still think IG Community has a lot of potential to grow and improve as it is the same few who are posting and trying to add value to the IG Community. There are too many members that are 'passive'. IG has an established brand and operates in numerous countries around the world. It is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a profitable business. 79% of retail investors lose money when trading CFD's and Spread Betting with this provider. This means only 21% make money when trading CFD's and Spread Betting with this provider. What we need is that 21% participating 'actively and proactively' in the IG Community to really add value and improve other traders. IG Community needs them to share their experience, knowledge and live trades as this would help newer traders and also improve the number of new trades being opened thus IG benefiting financially.
  8. @FinTech, I think this is a question more suitable directly to IG Customer Services rather than on here. You may wish to e-mail IG Customer Services or send them a message via the IG website.
  9. @Situation, The most 'efficient' and 'effective' trade based on price action for all of the Cryptos that IG offers on its platform was to short them. Now the amount of leverage to use would have been based on traders personal risk management strategy. I would like to think those who do follow price action and trends would have shorted at least one of the Cryptos. So there has been a big trading opportunity in Cryptos and a big opportunity to short and make profits. Markets go up, down and sideways. Traders seem more comfortable going long than they do short. I find that when you get the 'short trade' correct it can make you profits far quicker than a 'long trade'. Markets trend upwards longer than they do downwards in terms of time period. I still believe in Cryptocurrencies and once it has bottomed, there will be a more slower but stronger rally for those that survive. We should see the junk be annihilated. Those that survive should then enhance their offering, increase transaction speeds and become more efficient in dealing with the payments and transactions for goods and services for the world going forwards. I think there will be a bigger movement in 'Tokenisation' and some of you will have seen me use 'Tokenomics' and 'Token Economy' in my posts. This will be a long journey with lots of adaptation and change. We are merely only at the beginning of the journey and this journey will be formed over many years. Patience, an open mind, lots of reading and research on the area and to ignore some of the bias media and 'market noise' is required to truly appreciate Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain, Tokenisation and a move towards Digital Currencies for Central Governments around the world.
  10. @PhiloBeddoe, If you click on the 'magnifying glass' search and type 'Nasdaq' then you should get all the options available to trade such as the US Tech 100, etc. There is a whole page worth.
  11. Gold hit $1248.96. I am predicting it will hit $1250 - $1251 and then we may see that drop. Commodity Markets like round numbers and targets from my experience. I then see Gold making a new higher low at around the $1225 - $1230 level. If this happens then I am more likely to open my long trade in Gold which I have been considering and sharing this trading idea with the IG Community. Gold has also gone above its 200 day moving average which is also a very bullish sign. Volume looks steady but nothing spectacular. This means the big capital has not shifted to Gold yet. This move is impressive without big volume so one can only imagine what the move could translate to on much larger volume. The momentum indicator is looking stronger. The trend in Gold right now is upwards. I have stated many times in the past that I am not a fan of Gold but I try to keep an open mind and try to trade based on price action rather than my own personal opinions and beliefs. The price action is telling me to open a long trade on Gold. What I am doing is sharing my thought process with the IG Community by trying to explain how I may be looking to enter this trade. I am waiting for the next higher low to be formed which I think will be around the $1225-$1230 level and I will look to initiate a long position within this level. I am not too worried if it is at the higher end of this level as it will still be lower than the current price in what is an uptrend in Gold. I will then look to add to my position on every new higher low that is formed and 'pyramid' upwards and with the use of leverage look to maximise the profits I can make from such a trade. As I have mentioned many times I am not a fan of Gold but I believe there are a few times within a generation where there is a optimum time to trade Gold and the most recent one was its move towards $2000.00. I believe this is another time around a decade later. They do not come that often but I think we could be heading towards one. From a risk management perspective one does not want to be unnecessarily stopped out due to volatility and we know Gold is making new higher lows so any stop loss needs to be carefully considered but there must be a stop loss. This trade could still go against me and there could still be a vicious trend reversal but I think with Gold, as it is far less volatile than other commodities, one could be more generous on their stop loss. Once in profit then a trailing stop should be implemented. I now want to see if the price behaviour supports my prediction based on historical patterns and trends since 16th August 2018. Also upwards trends can last a very long time so this could be a trade that is held many months if not more and therefore it is a long term trade so one needs to make sure it makes the best decision possible at the time. I tend to use 'Spread Betting' as all profits are free from tax and the ability to use leverage. However there will be daily charges which is why one must not trade against the trend and why I am trying to make my entry point as effective as possible to ensure charges do not count against me in such a trade as these will be daily charges and if the position is held for many months then I am sure one can appreciate how such charges can add up!
  12. For me what I would like to understand is where the capital leaving equities is going to? Is it Bonds? I am not so sure at this moment in time. The majority of that capital is certainly not going into Gold or even Bitcoin. It may be just pure Cash but if the world economies do begin to slow down or there is an equity crash then bonds could become very interesting. In terms of Gold I am expecting a slight drop and then a new higher low to be formed. I am intrigued to see if this does actually play out this way.
  13. At $1240 level Gold has made a new higher high. It seems that it may continue with another move higher, especially with major equity indices performing the way they are. I mean the FTSE 100 price action was remarkable. It seems it is reacting to Brexit in anticipation. I was going to wait for the new higher low before placing deciding whether to plan an entry but this is where the unpredictability can come into trying to predict future patterns using historical price patterns.
  14. @AbDXB1345, I am using the following: 1. Desktop 2. Apple iMac 3. No additional screens I got to the printer, white board and, etc part and felt I may have misunderstood your post. One must ask that if you want to use multiple screens, why this is? What is it in your specific trading plan / strategy that requires you to use multiple screens? I am not suggesting there is anything wrong with using multiple screens as long as there really is a requirement to do so. As to a whiteboard then call me old fashioned but I cannot think of why a pen and paper is not sufficient. If you wanted to save paper and be environmentally friendly then maybe a small white board may satisfy your needs! For me the most important aspect you should be concentrating on is your trading plan and more specifically your trading strategy. In my opinion when a new inexperienced trader is starting then this is the most crucial part and time and time again I see this part be neglected. Your checklist should be: 1. Trading Plan 2. Trading Strategy 3. Tools and Software required to execute your strategy 4. Capital that you can afford to lose - Do not start trading until you have capital you can afford to lose. If you do not have this then patiently wait until you do. I would strongly urge you not to even place a trade until you have these points above and I cannot stress the importance of these.
  15. @Nelsy-Boy, I am at the monitoring price action stage. If the volume, strength of the trend and momentum pick up as well as the price action then these combined indicators may possible push me towards opening a long trade. I am not too worried about getting in at the bottom as using a 'trend following' approach I never will. I want to catch the big chunk in the middle. I will never exit right at the top either. I will wait for a clear trend reversal which will then execute either my trailing stop or stop loss. In my mind I still do not think there will be enough points on offer on any Gold trade to really get me excited but I am keeping an open mind with Brexit, economic uncertainty around the world, Trump / US plus any political situations that may arise.
  16. @Caseynotes, Yes, the momentum is possibly not strong enough for me at this stage but I shall still be following Gold as I want to see how effective Mercury's analysis and charts are. Predictive Analysis can be extremely complex based on what seem very simple theories. Mercury has posted fairly long posts on his own analysis on Gold and Silver which I have been following. Now I want to test his analysis by monitoring Gold's price action to see what happens and how effective it is.
  17. @Nelsy-Boy, quite agree. I do not think the trend is as strong as I would like so it is certainly 'food for thought'. My worry about opening a long trade on Gold is that it is followed by months of sideways action and I have capital tied in to a trade which I am not profiting from as much as what I could have on another trade (Opportunity Cost). This capital could be used on a Natural Gas short trade or another commodity trade.
  18. Looking at the price action as of 6:30 pm (now) it seems Gold may try and make a higher low. If it does then I will have to consider opening a small long trade and then add to it on every higher low. There seems to be a pattern forming which going forwards will hopefully confirm my assumptive/predictive analysis.
  19. @Caseynotes, yes an interesting point. Based on having odds in your favour, it would be better in relation to probability that when the price reverses after hitting or approaching resistance, be more likely to give a more successful outcome on the trade. The price could go below resistance which can happen of course. Very good point indeed. In terms of US closed market, my understanding is that the Commodities market will continue as normal so the Gold price will be very interesting. It has already dropped down to $1234.06 overnight from $1240.22. I have just read that Trump may re-consider tariffs with China if both countries cannot agree on a deal. I would like to see how the Gold price reacts to this news.
  20. Gold hit $1242.19 today. It seems that Gold may have bottomed. The question for me is that do I enter now or do I wait for that 'higher low' which may end up being higher than the current price? What is really crucial for me is that the price Gold hit today was the same as the bottom on around Tuesday 12th December 2017 which was the last major drop before the more recent downward drop in Gold. It seems to be surpassing this which in itself is positive. I think what I am thinking of doing to maximise any play on Gold is to wait for the next higher low and open a small long position and then increase my position on every higher low going forwards or as close as possible as I will never get in right at the bottom as I do not have a 'crystal ball' but as close as will do. I am trying to keep my analysis simple for the purpose of those on IG Community to follow. The 50 day moving average has crossed the 100 day moving average and the 20 day moving average has crossed the 50 day moving average making the current price action in Gold positive with an upward bias.
  21. Gold has just made another 'higher' high. One could open a long trade based on this or wait until the next higher low is formed. From a risk management perspective, Gold seems unlikely to just simply drop at this stage due to economic and political uncertainty around the world and of course any potential unwinding of Central Bank policy that we have been witnessing and experiencing over the last decade.
  22. @Tomjold92, When I select 'Shares' option and then 'Indices' nothing comes up under 'Australia 200'. I then selected 'Countries' and 'Australia' but still no shares are showing. Now it could be because I am based in the UK. Is Blackmore a 'large cap'? Do you get other or in fact any Australian shares showing?
  23. I was looking at the Gold chart and the one thing I have noticed since the 'bottom' on Thursday 16th August 2018 is that Gold has been making 'higher lows' and to a certain degree 'higher highs' though the lower lows have been more stronger than the higher highs. Now a potential Gold trade could be that when the next higher low is formed to open a long trade with a stop loss around the $1200 area to ensure volatility does not stop you out unnecessarily. I think a price to go long around the $1220 - $1225 area could be achievable and also an attractive entry point. I see Gold trying to attempt the $1243.00 area which would bring it nicely towards the 200 day moving average price. This is something that I myself will be considering as Gold is currently trading above its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. This is my indicator/signal to start getting interested. I am never convinced with the potential points / profits on offer with Gold and I do not at this point envisage a big move in Gold which is the reason why I have not yet pulled the trigger on such a trade. For me to personally be interested in this trade I would need to apply some serious leverage to maximise the profit potential as I just do not see a big move yet in Gold. It could happen in the months or years to come but right now I am not sure. I could be wrong and Brexit could start a domino effect but I do think Gold has the potential based on the current price action to certainly go for the $1243 area which could be a nice short term trade. I have included a diagram below where I have highlighted the 'lower lows' and slightly weaker 'higher highs' below. The circle at the end is where I am envisaging the price to hit at some point in December / January should this trend continue. I think there is a potential short term 'Long' trade here in Gold and though I am not a fan of Gold based on point / profit potential, I think I could get interested when applying leverage to maximise any profits in such a trade.
  24. @2395680, A troy ounce of gold is around roughly 31 grams if memory serves me correct. I know some will be thinking that an ounce is around 28 grams but gold is measured in troy ounce and therefore it is around 31 grams.
  25. @Turnip230248, Interesting. Would you then enter a trade based on 'best guessing' the immediate future? I think here comes the notion of 'balance of probability' and 'odds'. If you can trade with odds in your favour based on probability then I can see where you are coming from.
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