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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Some of you will be following another thread of mine suggesting a potential 'Long' Carbon Emissions and 'Short' Natural Gas trade but this thread is focussing on Carbon Emissions. The chart is looking very interesting right now.
  2. The 'Long' Carbon Emissions and 'Short' Natural Gas trade is potentially becoming a reality. If you look at both charts then you will begin to understand why.
  3. The Lumber price action is starting to get very interesting. It is slowly creeping upwards. It is not making the headlines or making any noises but it is my 'Silent Assassin' when it comes to a trade. It is not the 'sexiest' of Commodities but it was one of my best performing trades of recent times both on the 'long' and 'short' trades. It is at a critical juncture right now but it is worth keeping an eye on as it can give a good indicator to the US housing market too! 😉
  4. I would like to see Gold clear $1294 level to confirm its upward trend and for Silver $15.72 level. Until this happens any move cannot be confirmed as a continuation of the upward trend in my personal opinion. Both Gold and Silver were due a break from the rally we saw but the bulls will want to see continuation of that rally and this drop may provide a strong foundation and base for any larger upward move in both precious metals. With equities declining then it may just give the push required for the next move upwards in both. Such drops are seen as healthy and are absolutely required to take any potential rally in both Gold and Silver seriously. Otherwise you would see the 'Bubble Bitcoin' chart! 😀
  5. @Stewart, It sure does. I would expect the S&P 500 to test the level seen around 26th December 2018 (double bottom) at the very least. If things start turning ugly around the major countries in the world such as US, China, UK (Brexit) then we could see a move further downwards but this is just assumption based from me. The price action will test my assumptions and tell me if I am right or wrong. The risk on shorting the Dow and S&P is that any positive news will be pounced upon by the buyers creating large rallies which will increase the size and sharpness of the volatility and make trading conditions extremely difficult. I am tempted to day trade any move downwards in the S&P 500 thus taking smaller profits daily and avoiding the overnight charges. It is just a thought but one I am seriously considering.
  6. I think the price action of Bonds can be quite telling in such times of uncertainty.
  7. This could potentially see a sell off in equity markets. I am not sure if what we witnessed recently was just a monster relief rally or if there is indeed some substance behind the recent rally. I guess we are about to find out in the coming days and weeks.
  8. @Caseynotes, yes you are right. It seems the Gold market is being driven by news and the price is reacting.
  9. Right now there is just as much chance that Gold resumes it next move upwards and hits $1300 as there is that it continues its move downwards and goes below $1270 level. No one knows though the longer term trend since August 2018 is still upwards for now. It seems that news released in the media (such as growth updates on certain countries like US, China, etc.) along with sentiment will play a part in Gold's next move. If indices continue moving upwards then I feel that Gold could see a decline and of course the US Dollar will play a significant role in Gold's price action.
  10. @dmedin, At the moment any short on Gold would be a short term trade as for me there is no trend reversal confirmation so for longer term traders it would be extremely tricky to go short on Gold right now especially whilst it is above the $1280 level.
  11. @cryptotrader, If you look at the price action along with other indicators such as volume, momentum, moving averages, etc. then it gives us an idea (that is all it is) of what may happen going forwards. So for example the link between rising / falling volume on any price moves upwards / downwards, etc. I think the better traders will create their own trades of the week. If one has to rely on IG's trades of the week then to me it infers that they are not putting in the ground work themselves to identify potential trading opportunities. Yes on occasions I accept IG may highlight a trade that one may not have considered and that is fine but I think there are more than enough trading opportunities out there in the major asset classes of equities, FX and commodities.
  12. @Caseynotes, Yes it does hence I never pay much attention to any IG trades of the week. Price action does not lie and by following it, gives a better chance of understanding what any future direction may be.
  13. @Caseynotes, Gold could still have another go at breaking that. Whether it will or not I don't know but I am sure we will find out over the course of this week.
  14. For me the trend up is still upwards and what we are witnesses is a mere correction. However if the price was to go below its 50 day moving average then I think we could see a trend change. The $1261.00 level will be crucial. If this holds and Gold stays above it then we could see another move upwards. If this price does not hold then I do fear we may witness longs closing, more shorts opening and stop losses being triggered causing a further drop to the price of Gold and potentially eliminating recent gains for those who are left holding based on 'market noise', 'emotions', 'fundamentals', etc.
  15. The price action is hinting / suggesting at another move downwards which is long due and one expects profit taking and stop losses to be triggered as a result. Let’s see what happens!
  16. @TheGuru12, During the rise of Bitcoin over 12 months ago I remember placing numerous trades within a 2-4 hour period and my trades were lasting around 5-10 mins if that on some of them. This was on IG's Spread Betting platform!
  17. @Amirf, Have a look at the price around July 2017 period and during the drop. Research shows us that 'Bubbles' tend to revert back to mean. Now that does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin must revert back to its mean as it could create a new 'history' for itself but if it was to revert back to its prices before the 'parabolic rise' then it could go into the $2k area. The truth is I do not know what the Bitcoin price will be next month or next year and the assumption I make will be tested and the results will be known via the price action of Bitcoin. So we are about to find out.
  18. @Stewart, Yes I think you summarise it well. I think the notion of the trade was correct and my timing was initially good as I was 140 points up at one stage but I then opened a second position at the wrong time and then the trade went totally against me. Interesting about going short. I think I shall be trying again very soon.
  19. I would just like to add that yes backtesting is important when fine tuning a trading system to establish an 'edge' but I believe that forward testing is crucial to confirm if that 'edge' truly exists and to really confirm quantification of that 'edge'.
  20. @JamesIG, I just tried a test to short NEO and still the same message is appearing. This was 12:33 pm. I look forward to received an in-depth reply on Monday as to the reasons why this was happening.
  21. Palladium has been outperforming all the other precious metals by quite a distance. Yes the margin requirements are higher but the performance has been higher too! The spread is not actually that bad either on it. As I have stated in many occasions a long term upward trend can last a lot longer than one expects. Palladium has a unique benefit in that it is a precious metal that can go up during time of crisis but also it has important industrial uses which means when economies are doing well, their stock markets are doing well in the shape of equities / indices then Palladium can too perform well. Platinum has been the weakest and Gold and Silver seeming to be at the beginning of their journey to possibly join Palladium but I do not think Palladium is about to give up its crown as 'Top Dog' anytime soon. From an investment portfolio perspective, I would want to start considering shifting a small allocation from equities into Precious Metals and Bonds and think about rebalancing based on Brexit consequences, recessions in certain EU Member States such as France and Germany and the US!
  22. I do not think the large financial institutions are going to flood capital into the Cryptocurrency markets in the likes of Bitcoin until the price is around the $2k area. There will be volatility and rallies along the way but it seems that Bitcoin is heading for the $2k area unless there is a remarkable change in sentiment and capital begins to be invested in Cryptocurrencies by the largest banks, etc.
  23. The only asset I day trade is Cryptocurrencies. I at times only place trades which last 5-10 mins within Cryptocurrencies. I just tried to short Neo, EOS and Stellar at 11:32 am on Saturday 19th January 2019 and could not do so. This is so frustrating. @JamesIG I am sure you will provide an explanation for this but I had to place the trade with another platform (competitor of IG's) and this happens far too often that I have lost count. The message I get is, "You cannot sell this market to open". I find short 5-10 min trades on Cryptocurrencies great when they are moving in a certain direction but IG's liquidity issues affect the level of service on Cryptocurrencies.
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