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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @JamesIG, My thoughts are that I am a bit disappointed. Bitcoin Gold is not even in the top 20 in terms of market cap. If they had offered Bitcoin Cash then it would have been very interesting. Ethereum is the only one that really interests me but is the demand there for Ether in terms of price appreciation of the coin itself? It is all to do with algorithms to mine with. They offer two, Equihash and Ethash. Equihash is a memory orientated proof of work algorithm developed by Luxembourg University. Ethash is the proof of work function in Ethereum based blockchain currencies. It uses Keccak, a hash function which was later on standardised to SHA-3. I am not yet convinced of the demand for this as for me this would only be of appeal to those who have truely embraced Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies and have spare money lying around to participate in such activity. Those who have embraced would need to have an interest in the mining side of things and a passion as well. I cannot see the demand for this right now though I accept I could be totally wrong. I am happy to keep an open mind and see how it plays out and let the revenue figures tell me how this is performing as well as updates as a shareholder from Vela Technologies PLC.
  2. Tokenisation is an area that is gaining some traction. Is it the future of raising finance / capital for businesses? What do others think?
  3. I wanted to share this with those within the IG Community that have an interest in Blockchain. https://www.investegate.co.uk/coinsilium-group-limited--coin-/eqs/fantom-sells-us--39-8m-in-tokens-/20180627070003EYJPG/
  4. There is one thing for sure. The traditional banking model is changing and will continue to change. I can see the big banks acquiring the new smaller challenger banks. Smart acquisitions by these big banks will be key.
  5. BABB is launching a new bank for the micro economy. It is using a decentralised banking platform that leverages blockchain and biometrics to offer anyone in the world access to a UK bank account for peer-to-peer financial services. https://getbabb.com They are currently raising capital on Crowdcube (Equity Crowdfunding). This could be the start of many banks especially new start up businesses starting from the beginning to use a decentralised banking platform using blockchain. The valuation is absurd at £100m. Apparently they are using the DCF method which they all say they use to hide behind such a ridiculous figure.
  6. I think Revolut is going to attract the new and younger generation for sure. I am not so sure that it will be a serious contender to take on the big banks anytime soon. The question is will the big banks adapt to change effectively and amend their business model and strategy to cater for the new generation and technological revolution we are witnessing.
  7. Facebook have apparently reversed their ban on Cryptocurrency Ads but have maintained their ban on ICO's. It will be interesting to see how the price of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies react to this news. India's stance on Cryptocurrencies is also very interesting. If they were to relax their stance then the price behaviour of Cryptocurrencies should be positive.
  8. Robinhood recently started offering free cryptocurrency trading but now it seems they are looking to offer a cryptocurrency wallet. They certainly are being proactive and trying to get 'first mover advantage' in this area. I think Robinhood has a valuation of around $5 billion plus. This offering could provide Robinhood customers with a more secure way of storing their digital assets. From memory, it was involved in a Series D fund-raising sometime last month and it raised over $360 million. This gives it the firepower to take on rivals operating in this crypto space. I think Revolut are also trying to get into this space as the new generation want digital banking, digital currencies and digital store of their assets meaning digital paperwork.
  9. For those that are interested: https://www.argomining.co The packages are all showing as sold out but are they really? I don't know the answer to my question but if they are then this will be reflected in the financials in terms of revenues the company initially earns. You need to have a cryptocurrency wallet so that the mined coins can be sent to you in your wallet. It does not offer mining Bitcoin but it does offer the mining of Ethereum which has the second largest market cap of all the cryptocurrencies.
  10. As an investor in Vela Technologies PLC, I am hearing that Argo Blockchain PLC's IPO listing is this Friday. However, I cannot see any information in relation to that anywhere on the internet. However, if it does list this Friday then next week will be interesting to see 1) the interest and demand for the shares and 2) the price and volume performance data for the shares.
  11. This is just an idea but what about creating a IG token? Call it whatever but just for example, 'IG Coin'. IG reward such tokens as rewards for content to community members if their posts are of sufficient quality and can lead to a transaction opportunity. The IG Coin / Token can only be used on IG's platform and can be exchanged for fiat currency of the country in which the members are based to use only to trade on IG's platform.
  12. If I look at the Silver chart then it is for day traders or short term traders who could profit from such price behaviour. There is sideways activity with volatility along the way. There is no strong real trend either on the long or short side. There needs to be strong fundamental reasons behind a strong trend. There is not one really for Silver that is strong enough at the moment hence the price action.
  13. Nickel is an interesting commodity. Yes, it has industrial uses. However, it also has an important use in lithium-ion batteries. If you go back to the summer of last year to around now (past 12 months) then the chart is also impressive. This is yet another example of where fundamentals lead into technical performance. In my experience when there are strong fundamentals, good positive technicals will follow and this will lead to a stronger and longer trend.
  14. @Caseynotes, you may be right it could be a big buyer has stepped in or maybe a number of big buyers as why would one big buyer take such a risk? Do you think it could be a short covering rally and then the downtrend continues?
  15. Let me start with a fundamental perspective. One could argue that a weaker dollar is part of Trump's economic plan. Suffering a large net foreign liability position which I think from is memory is around $8 trillion USD but please do not quote me on that means that the dollar could look exposed. This is especially true is the investment environment gets worse. The price action on JPY and CHF since March 2018 are interesting. There could be an inflationary impact of the tariffs which could push the dollar up. I accept this is on the assumption that the US Federal Reserve attempt to continue to control inflation! The US-China face off is reliant on Trump's $200 billion threat whilst the EU is attempting 2.8 billion in tariffs. So it seems that fundamental analysis may have led to the price action and behaviour which you see from a technical analysis perspective. Now here is a question which I have views on but I will put it out there. If things play out like they could in a Trump trade war then where do you think the capital is going to move towards? Safe haven currencies? Safe haven assets?
  16. @Kodiak, the key question here is if you think the double bottom in the EUR / USD (May-June) has any relation to the Trump trade war? If you do then the next question would be why it has caused such price behaviour from a technical analysis perspective?
  17. @247trader, what do you think are a lot of opportunities for trades? I think before any discussion it would be nice if you could put your thoughts or opinions on this matter and that then may create a discussion. I think a good starting point is where you think there are a lot of opportunities for making a few trades based on such rhetoric coming from the Trump.
  18. Part I: I am getting asked a lot of questions on Blockchain. I have promised many that I will start a post and begin putting down some of my thoughts for the IG Community to read and consider. If those who read do not agree or appreciate my thoughts then that is absolutely fine. In my opinion (based on what I have read on the subject matter) then Blockchain is at the same level to where the Internet was during its earlier years. If Blockchain is applied successfully then it could make the Internet more decentralised which is how it was initially intended. I think it is the most important development since the Internet. For me in simple terms, Blockchain is a form of technology that can record transactions on a permanent basis which cannot be altered. This is extremely useful from an audit perspective. I can envisage most people checking and verifying information on the 'Blockchain'. It may well even replace the word database! Blockchain is the technology behind Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies. They exist because of the Blockchain technology behind it and underpinning it. From a technical perspective, Blockchain could be described as a back end database that maintains a distributed ledger. From a business perspective, Blockchain could be described as an exchange network for moving transactions, value, assets without any intermediaries. From a legal perspective, Blockchain validates transactions which replaces that historically trusted institutions / organisations. One way of looking at Blockchain is merely an extension of the Internet. Those who appreciate the historical evolution of the World Wide Web will appreciate Blockchain and the journey it is heading towards. Just like the World Wide Web needs the Internet so too does Blockchain applications. The ambition is that they can bypass the Web and create a more decentralised version. This is one of the biggest promises of Blockchain technology. In all my time investing, my experience tells me that as a trend follower, the strongest impact for a trend or technology is whether it has a strong narrative. In my opinion, Blockchain, has an extremely strong narrative. The Internet too had a strong narrative. The most popular use of Blockchain technology has been Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In simplistic terms, Blockchain is like a very large database. Blockchain is also very technical. I suggest anyone who is genuinely really interested to read books on Blockchain as that is the only way they can really even begin to understand the complexities behind Blockchain. I am keeping things very simple for the IG Community. However I will add more detail and specifics in future parts to this post. Part II: If one looks at Blockchain from a technology perspective then one will implement it as a technology. However, if one looks at Blockchain as a business change enabler then one will begin to think about business processes. It is only when one starts looking at different business processes where Blockchain could be applied to make it more efficient, effective, robust and quick that the markets around the world really do begin to open up in one's mind. I think what people forget is that Blockchain offers a genuine new way of implementing trust in relation to transactions. It is perfectly feasible to make an assumption that going forwards in the future it will be machines that will compute trust rather than it being verified by humans. I think from an evidential standard, it is not unreasonable to even suggest that proving that something did actually happen will be served by Blockchains. A lot of people will be aware of smart contracts and smart property. These in my opinion will be Blockchain's initial biggest drivers. I think the mainstream is simply not educated enough in the subject area to truly appreciate Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies. For example, if I had a rare vintage Swiss watch, expensive art, unique stamp or rare diamond ring then I would go to the relevant specialists and experts to get a true valuation of its worth. Blockchain and especially Cryptocurrencies are the same but the audience commenting on it may not have the specialist knowledge required to even understand what the true valuation could be for Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies. Why should a journalist, news reporter, mainstream media, person on the street, your neighbour, relative, friend or colleague be qualified to even comment that Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies are worthless and frauds. How can they without having the technical knowledge behind the subject area suggest that for example Bitcoin is going down to zero. I will end this part by stating that we are beginning to accept that the future of cars is 'self-driving' and 'electric / hydrogen'. If we open our mind then we will begin to accept that the future of money is 'digital' and the way to move assets and conduct transactions around the world are going to be based on the 'Blockchain'. Part III: How do I see Blockchain being adopted in financial institutions? This is a question that I get asked a lot. I think they will try and adopt certain parts in a subtle way but it is start ups that are really going to aggressively push the boundaries of blockchain within the financial industry. For those who want exposure to this area then they will have to consider looking at start ups and especially those who have a real 'edge'. Once mainstream banks start providing cryptocurrency services whether it be in the form of digital wallets, crypto bank accounts, or crypto money transfers against fiat currencies then there really will be a blockchain revolution of some form. I think the in between step could be say linking your traditional bank accounts to your crypto wallets. It may be that banks do not adopt such a method and it ends up being the crypto wallets offering links to fiat accounts and currencies. A key point of Blockchain is that information is cryptographically secure. Trust plays a crucial role. I am mindful of my audience and I could at this point get technical but my aim was to bring some exposure of blockchain to those that may not fully appreciate this new technology. This journey that has began with Blockchain will not be anywhere near complete until it enters into a variety of different industries and governments around the world. Blockchain at its most effective will provide "proof of everything". It will great for audit / assurance. One can see health care, energy, governments and financial sector being great beneficiaries of Blockchain. I have seen signs of adoption of Blockchain with shipping companies and supply chain management. I remember reading something where Albert Einstein was quoted as saying that imagination was more important than knowledge. This was because knowledge was limited to all we now know and understand while imagination embraces the whole world. Due to limited knowledge about Blockchain people are finding it really difficult to appreciate it. Those that do appreciate it have read about the subject area and hence they have the knowledge to embrace and accept it. Those who created the concept of Blockchain and made it possible to execute are those with great imagination who created the knowledge for others to acquire. Blockchain does not just improve processes. For me it is a disruptive technology and if it fulfils its potential then can be game changing which is why I am extremely interested from an investment perspective. To really create genuine true wealth, one needs to invest in those disruptive, game changing investments and this is where Blockchain could present returns similar to the likes of Amazon, Google, Apple, etc. Those who held for say a 20 year period are sitting on unimaginable returns. The best way one could describe Blockchain is that it is a new major software development platform. I have read recently that Universities are looking at offering courses on Blockchain. Education will be key. Those countries that offer this through recognised qualifications will attract those with great imaginations that provide knowledge for others. It is a must that the new generation learn the basic functionality of a blockchain and what it enables generically. For me there is no doubt that for start ups the Blockchain is a disruptor. Larger companies do not generally like to disrupt themselves for this is what start ups are essential to the success of Blockchain adoption. In my personal opinion you can either take a proactive approach to education yourself on Blockchain technology or you can wait until the market educated everyone. For those who want to get in early for the bigger returns and larger profits then it makes sense to educate yourself. If you wait for the market then you will amass returns similar to others who acted in a similar way. For those who have studied any sort of Business degree will understand 'Business Process Re-Engineering'. I remember reading a book which suggested that implementing the blockchain was around 80% about business process changes and around 20% about figuring out the technology behind it. As someone who is involved in start up investing and who gets sent investment proposals and business plans, one of the first questions that I tend to ask is what the specific problem is that this business is trying to solve. When looking at Blockchain opportunities a potential investor needs to ask is it actually solving a real problem and will the solution that Blockchain offers truly improve that business and bring with it efficiency, speed and a higher level of effectiveness. One thing to remember is that the truly great businesses do not just solve a problem. They create new opportunities instead of solving existing problems. Spotting such businesses in the start up arena associated with the use of Blockchain is the most difficult and challenging aspect. In the future there could be a crypto economy based on Blockchain. This could create millions of jobs worldwide. Value creation will be a key feature. Part of that value will be running services on the Blockchain. This is a new frontier. Yes, it is ultra high risk and I believe we are at an early stage of really understanding and appreciate the value the Blockchain can truly bring to a possible crypto driven economy. We use the term 'Fin-Tech' but who knows there may be a new term like 'Crypto-Tech' which will embrace us. I can see cryptocurrency only banks emerging around the world. I think digital wallets will become mainstream and be embedded into future smartphones and smartwatches. I have already started seeing services where users can earn cryptocurrency by performing routine services and I think these will grow in popularity. I have already seen businesses attempting to set up businesses involved in the digital trading of commodities like gold and diamonds on the blockchain anywhere in the world. I read something recently which summed up how to describe what we may witness in the coming years. It was something like the crypto economy being a trust economy that was decentralised at birth. I thought this was a wonderful way to describe in a few words what we may begin to see not just in the future but now. Easter Egg: For those familiar with the Marvel Cinematic Universe will appreciate why this section is titled the 'Easter Egg'. I think IG could reward the IG community in cryptocurrency and this would be revolutionary. It would also attract top quality content, information and knowledge to be shared with the IG Community. I think IG should seriously think about this idea. If participants get paid to provide value that leads to a transaction opportunity then IG must seriously consider this. For example if I wrote a piece on a trade for Bitcoin or even a commodity like Lumber and this led to what IG deemed as a transaction opportunity then IG could pay me in crypto. If IG wants to create a world class IG Community that benefits its members and educates others which can lead to an increase in transactions on its platform then it must incentivise the authors that post on it quality material. I don't just mean posting chart after chart or posting links after links. I mean top quality content which makes those who read it seriously think about the subject area. It must educate those who read it and offer seriously value enrichment to its readers. This will drive up the quality of the posts. It is not about the quantity but the quality. So for a supreme, world class post it could reward the writer more cryptos.
  19. Argo Blockchain PLC is an interesting one. Is there the demand or enough demand for people to open accounts, pay monthly subscriptions for mining cryptocurrencies? I am not sure at this moment. I am not sure whether I would invest at IPO stage in this company but I have indirect exposure via an investment in Vela Technologies PLC which has invested in Argo Blockchain PLC. This is a very interesting one on two levels. One is whether it can grow as a business, scale up using capital acquired and gain serious revenue growth going forwards. The other level is whether there will be enough investment demand in such a company? Time will tell.
  20. These massive corrections are just part of the longer term downtrend. Yes there will be a move upwards but only followed by another move downwards until there are more buyers than sellers on a consistent basis. Until this happens then the longer term downtrend will stay in tact. Shorting is the only option right now and has been for several months. The beauty of IG and spread betting is that it allows one to profit from price declines.
  21. Yes, IOTA is one that interests me too as does Stellar. There is a big correction ongoing in crypto's. The only move is short right now and has been for several months. Anybody who has tried to adopt any type of value investing will have got burnt and will be sitting on losses. Those who then try to add to their positions as the price declines will be sitting on even bigger losses. One must make moves based on trends. None of us can predict the future and nor can trend following. However, it increases your odds and the balance of probability increases of a successful trade / investment. The weak or should I say junk crypto's will fail and disappear. The better quality should be left. Of those that are left several will still fail due to lack of adoption and lack of capital investment. After this period the fun really starts. It is about selecting those cryptos that can survive this period which could be a year or two or possibly longer.
  22. Yes, the key is any positions opened from 1 August. This infers existing positions will not be affected.
  23. For those who may be interested then Argo Blockchain PLC is looking to raise around £20m at a valuation of £40m.
  24. http://uk.businessinsider.com/crypto-mining-company-argo-blockchain-plans-london-stock-exchange-listing-2018-6 Apologies, I may have forgot to include the link above.
  25. This may be of interest to some of you who are interested in the Blockchain space. You can either invest directly in the company or do so via Vela Technologies PLC who have invested around £200,000.00 into Argo Blockchain PLC but they also have other Crypto/Blockchain investments like BTL Group, K2 Blockchain, etc.
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