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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Kodiak, That means you must look at your stop loss strategy. If you are trading a strong trend (volatility occurs in all trading assets) and if your stop loss is too tight and you keep on getting stopped out then the winner is the broker not you. If you have selected the correct trend which is strong and you are trading with the trend then you must have an effective stop loss strategy. You may want to revisit your risk management and have a look at position size, how much you are willing to risk on each trade based on your risk tolerance and try and come up with a more effective stop loss mechanism that eliminates this issue but at the same time does not increase your overall losses in your trading account. I must make it clear that it is about trading the strongest trends (which tend to be bubbles, hype, frenzy, speculation) etc. I love those types of trends and one must not fear them but embrace them. They are the trends that will make the biggest profits. The weaker the trend you trade the harder it is to have a sound stop loss strategy as volatility will stop you out. It is how your trading system deals with volatility which will be key.
  2. @dmedin, In all of the humour added by @Caseynotes there is a very important point. A point that must be understood. First of all, spread betting is merely a vehicle to use to get to a destination. There are other vehicles available and it is your personal choice which vehicle you choose. For example if I want to invest in a company for the long term then I use a different broker to IG. If I want to trade a trend either 'long' or 'short' then I use IG's Spread Betting account. Why do I use Spread Betting? Well the two main reasons are the use of leverage and the other is that profits are free from Capital Gains Tax making it a tax efficient way of trading. Now the two reasons I have highlighted are totally irrelevant if you are either a bad trader or a good trader using a bad trading strategy when using Spread Betting. I will try and identify strong trends to trade using Spread Betting. Trading with the trend is crucial on Spread Betting. The stronger the trend the better. So it is not just about spotting a trend. 'Trend Strength', 'Momentum' and other indicators have to align to try and give you the best chance of a profitable trade. The amount of traders I have come across on just this IG Community alone that do not have the following is staggering: Trading Plan Trading Strategy Trading System Now without the above the odds are going to be against you and the probability of success diminishes. Also it is not just above having the three points above but they must be effective and efficient in trading the markets. Spread Betting is not gambling. It is merely a trading platform. Gambling is using trade capital to trade without an effective trading plan, without an effective trading strategy and without an effective trading system. It is the individual that gambles not IG's Spread Betting platform. An ineffective trader could invest thousands of pounds on a share in the hope that it recovers or goes up. If the share price continues falling and that trader loses thousands of pounds then it is the trader who is the gambler and it does not matter if they used a traditional share broker, invested via an ETF, bought a mutual fund or traded using a CFD or Spread Betting account. It is the actions of the trader that is the issue and at fault. Once you have a defined trading plan, a clear trading strategy which can be executed and a trading system capable of delivering the objectives of the trading plan then you will decide which platform or structure to use for your trading / investing. So the platform that you use will be dependant on your trading plan, trading strategy and trading system. Now guess what? If you have no trading plan, trading strategy and trading system then how can you pick the most effective trading platform to use? How can you come to the decision that a Spread Betting account is better than a traditional Share Broking account? How can you determine that CFD is better than a Spread Betting account? @Caseynotes, put the point across in a lovely humorous way and I have tried to put the point across in a more serious way and hopefully both will resonate with most types of readers here on IG Community.
  3. @elle, That is the inference I make from your post. You are right we must wait to see what happens next. It may well be that the price begins declining as per historical behaviour but it could be that it creates a 'new history'. Time and price action will tell us very shortly. When fundamentals align with price action then I believe one must put aside historical behaviour as new price behaviour is created. Gold has the potential for this but it may not fulfil this potential. It may be the Gold reverts back to historical movements.
  4. The US 500 is just not powering through 2600 yet though it has tried and had a few attempts recently. Next week should give us a more clearer direction of the S&P 500. I think one of the reasons why it did not power through is that no real substance or clear progression was announced supported by anything. Add the US shutdown at the moment and one may begin to understand why. What I do not know at this moment is how Tueday's Brexit vote will impact not just the UK markers but other markets around the world. It may have not impact at all or it could have bigger impacts than we all realise. I just do not know at this moment in time as I have read reports highlighting both sides but I do not really think anyone knows for sure. We will find out next week and I think next week is going to be another volatile trading week where indices are concerned.
  5. @JamesIG, First of all, thank you. I think this will assist many traders to identify certain trades which they can seriously consider trading. I tend to like monitoring certain assets and its price action daily so I am in tune with that is happening and why it may be happening as you are living and breathing the trade live. The danger with indicators (though it has far many positives) is that if the trader then does not put the work in and understand why the price is behaving the way it is, it may lead them into a potentially 'false' trade based on indicators. Using indicators should not mean less research, less effort and should not result to a lazy way of trading. Trading is not easy and if trading was just about trading on indicators then 81% of retail investors losing money would not make sense. However a really good thread @JamesIG and I think your post should encourage more traders to consider using indicators which should help them identify better trades at more opportune moments.
  6. @Caseynotes, I would be inclined to agree with your presumption. I too did not notice any problems before then but this morning all the spreads on my open / live trades were out by quite a distance. Now due to my risk tolerance I may have a large distance in my stop losses than many other traders but those who are keeping tight stop losses could easily get stopped out of a position even if there trade is moving in the correct direction. I cannot see IG compensating many of the clients who may get affected.
  7. @Cedric, Yes @Caseynotes point on keeping a good amount of distance between the margin requirement and account size for any trade is very important. It is often a factor a lot of new traders neglect. It is extremely important when using leverage on a trade as if the price moves against your direction of trade then the leverage can increase the losses incurred. It may only be very short term and temporary before recommencing in the direction you have opened a trade in but nevertheless it is an important point.
  8. @Caseynotes, yes that is right. There seems to be some sort of glitch in the system that causes this to happen. Add any after hours trading to the mix and the spreads and prices seem to go haywire during the weekend.
  9. @elle, You may be on to something or your inference may be correct but I would like to offer a counter argument (where I could be wrong). You state the yellow circles on your chart has 'previous'. I would like to add that 'Historical performance does not necessarily mean that it will be repeated in the future'. Just think of those trends which are formed which make new higher highs, take out its 52 week high and greater long term highs. Those trends defy historical price behaviour. You then state the following: I would like to offer a counter argument to that which is 'Price does often not react to levels it has reached before'. The word often is key as it is as likely to react as it is not to react. It can go both ways. I am not suggesting you are wrong. I am merely presenting a different side to the statement. Now when both the above points are combined then this is where 'Fundamental analysis and Economic Assessment' comes in when it comes to specifically Gold. I have repeatedly stated that I am not a fan of Gold. So why am I trading it? Firstly and foremost the price action and my specific reasons for entry are earlier on in this thread. To support that there are economic reasons as I have previously discussed such as the US Dollar, US Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, Brexit, Economic Uncertainty, Potential Recessions, etc. When you combine the fundamentals to the price action the narrative becomes slightly different to previous price behaviour as there are 'New Ingrediants' which tell a slightly different narrative when it comes to price action. So for example if you make a cake using the same ingredients and in exactly the same quantity then the taste may still not be the same but will be very similar. Now if you change the ingredients or change the quantity used the taste will be different. The result will still be a cake but the taste will be different. Gold's current price behaviour has a new narrative and backdrop that is more probable (no guarantee) that can make the price react differently to historic price action. The UK will be the first country to leave the EU and Trump is Trump! Now things may play out like the inference @elle is making in the charts with the yellow circles so let's see.
  10. @Caseynotes, Also the prices on open positions seems to be skewed under 'Positions' section. The spreads are more way out than normal it seems.
  11. @Tripeiro, This question has been raised by several others here on the IG Community. My understanding is that it is not and has annoyed several of IG's clients who have posted as such.
  12. I am getting a lot of messages asking what my current view is on Bitcoin. TrendFollower = Positive on Cryptocurrencies as an Asset Class (will take time to grow and improve) TrendFollower = Downward bias on Bitcoin and long term trend still down TrendFollower = Potential Long trades open for day traders, swing traders and generally short timeframe traders TrendFollower = Until bottom has been formed on Bitcoin and then tested (double bottom) prices will not begin to rally and long trend upwards will not be formed TrendFollower = Still possibilities exist for 'Short' positions on Bitcoin to profit from long term trend
  13. @elle, I was actually thinking of a strategy of day trading a strong upward trending asset which is identified early and where the probability of a profitable trade was more times than not based on whether you are 'long' or 'short' of course. This would remove the daily charges and costs associated to the trade and also the profits would be taken on a regular basis and losses too. I am still in the process of devising the strategy so a lot more work needs to be done but interesting.
  14. @Caseynotes, There are rumours of 'news releases' being manipulated on not just social media but on online media in general that 'so called' specialises in Cryptocurrencies. When this news is released on online media it begins to attract those looking to make quick money on Cryptocurrencies and we know how that ends. Even after the current price action I remain positive on Cryptocurrencies as an asset class. My view still has not changed, so far! I think there is more downward movement to come but once the asset class does bottom and all the junk and garbage is removed only then will we see real upwards trending long term movements in Cryptocurrencies in general. I don't even think (as title of this thread states) we are at the long period of consolidation on Bitcoin yet.
  15. 2604.18 for me is now the critical point which the S&P will need to hit and move beyond. If it does then my short is in danger and that should be me out of the trade unless I intervene manually and either exit before or amend my stop loss which I am unlikely to do as I like to accept I am wrong and move on. I would have to have a very good reason to amend my stop loss and I do not have one at this point so unless the short term trend changes back to downwards before $2605.00 is hit then I am likely to be out of this trade.
  16. @Whiterose, One of the differences is that profits are tax free from Spread Betting but you cannot claim loss relief. With CFD's you pay tax on your profits but losses can be offset.
  17. @Caseynotes, 😀, yes that pattern looks like an 'up and down' or 'up along the bridge and back down again' type of pattern! Cryptocurrencies (with the exception of those like Tron) and especially those offered by IG on its platform are all showing strong downward trends and strong downward bias. I got suckered into those relief rallies with Ripple and Stellar a few months ago and though I cut my losses short and quickly it highlighted clearly to me not to trade against the long term trend on Cryptocurrencies. The long term trend is 'down' and I went 'long' on Ripple and Stellar. For day traders and short term swing traders that is fine but I am a more longer term trader and I look for strong long trends which I can ride. The frustrating part for me is that I have been short Bitcoin so why on earth I decided to go long Ripple and Stellar is beyond me. Cryptos tend to rally hard upwards but they end up going lower and lower. Until a clear bottom is formed and is tested with a 'double bottom' I would not want to go long any of the Cryptocurrencies right now. The only play is short and has been for the last 12 months.
  18. @Caseynotes, Technical analysts are suggesting that $1279 level will be crucial. I recall reading an IG article very recently (not sure how much I value the IG Analysts) but they too were suggesting this level as being critical to determine the future path of the shiny one. If Gold goes below this price then it could prove bearish but if it stays above then it may set up for the next leg upwards. I think Gold will attempt $1300 very soon. US Earning Seasons is approaching and the if results are not as good then that may be a driver for Gold prices to drive upwards. After the recent rally in Gold prices (and Silver too) I would expect some form of consolidation, profit taking and stop losses triggering and that is what we are possibly witnessing now. Platinum is showing similar price action right now after its recent move to catch up. Palladium is slightly different in that though it is a 'Precious Metal' it has some valuable industrial uses in economies around the world which makes it unique. Its chart is very interesting.
  19. Based on any significant details being released from the US - China trade talks it seems the small dip has come well before my level of 2603-2605. It is being reported that the market expected more substance from the talks which neither country has announced. I think 2600 level is a critical point in S&P's journey and going forwards if it can stay above it then it indicates bullishness to me but if it stays below then it could represent worrying times ahead. The trend is not as clear as I would have liked and if you look at when I entered the trade it was like a straight line dropping and it continued to drop (at one stage 140 points in profit) and then it has began rallying quite hard.
  20. I used to use them for AIM listed companies years ago. I do not invest heavily in AIM anymore. The time I allocated to AIM was taken up by Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain and Tokenisation. In fact these now take up more of my time than AIM ever did as it was a small part of my overall portfolio.
  21. @amphius, Well done for making a start and e-mailing a few. Whilst you are waiting for an answer conduct research on the internet as this will help you to come up with questions that you may want to ask and points you would like clarification on.
  22. The S&P 500 hit 2595 today so it is getting close to the magic round number of 2600. It is possible that the price touches 2603 - 2605 before a small dip but this will be dependant on the news flow coming out of the US. Any negative news flow out of the US could see heavy selling taking the S&P to potentially the 2350 to 2450 levels. This trade is far more difficult now than when I entered. In a way I have reduced my risk on this trade by taking a loss on the second trade (cutting losses early) and thus increasing my 'Equity' and 'Available' capital to trade for any other opportunities.
  23. @elle, I use Sharescope (I think it is brilliant) and have done for many years now. As far as I am aware (please correct me if I am wrong) they do not offer independent research on listed companies but you can use them for analysis of a share for sure. I am assuming that is what you meant. @amphius, I used to use Edison. You may want to look at the website below. https://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com
  24. @elle, This would have been an excellent short. Did you short this? Or are you still short?
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