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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Thanks. It seems to have sorted itself out on Friday.
  2. I do not know if anyone else is having this problem but in my Spreadbetting account the commodity prices are all over the place. They are being mixed up with other commodities. Is anyone else having this problem? Can IG resolve this problem? My indices and cryptocurrency prices are fine. It seems to be only commodity prices that have been affected. I noticed it yesterday but it is still the case today.
  3. , Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows at the moment which for me is a short all day long with a nice dose of leverage.
  4. , the key point is what the reason to open a long position in the first place was? Also what the plan / strategy was behind the position. To exit the position when there has not been a large correction / dip / drop / fall is quite strange. I accept I am looking at it from a trend following perspective and others may not but the timing is a strange one. It may end up being the right call but at the moment I don't see the reason to sell. There may be one in the coming weeks and months but at this specific point in time it is a hold for me and to add to any long position on any dips. If a sound decision has been made to exit the position then should one not be looking to go short on Tesco PLC? If the trend upwards is in tact and 'buy the dip' strategy is being adopted then should one not add to their long position during dips rather than sell on the dips during a upward trending move?
  5. Watch out for a big sell off. Anything below $54,000 and I would be a seller looking to short. However, I have seen such large corrections only for the move upwards to continue. The next few days will be interesting. There is an excellent shorting opportunity but the risk is that the move upwards continues so the stop loss strategy needs to be given some careful thought.
  6. Cotton is still in the race to try and hit $100.00. It has not given up yet but is struggling for the last push up.
  7. Based on the reasons you have given as to why you sold Tesco PLC then I am confused as to why you opened a position in the first place? I have held Booker PLC which then covered into Tesco PLC shares for over five years now. This was based on price action and strength of the upward trend. What were the reasons why you opened a long position on Tesco PLC? Time will tell whether your sale was the correct action but for me unless there is a trend reversal there is no reason to sell. Let your stop loss take the emotion out of the decision and allow you to exit. Did you have a stop loss? If so what was it and if not then why not? You seem to have a bias in your decision making towards fundamentals. Try looking at the technicals as well and see if that helps you.
  8. , I think on any bad news (regulatory or otherwise) could see Bitcoin go down to high $6000 area for sure. Positive news especially on the regulatory front could see Bitcoin try and clear $10000. Bitcoin seems to be 'treading' price action to keep within a particular range until the direction of travel becomes more clear.
  9. Possibly. It needs to break $8k convincingly!
  10. A punt is betting or speculating on something. I accept there will be many that simply speculate and bet on share price movements, FX price movements or commodity price movements. You cannot compare trading (which can be weeks, months or even longer) depending on the trend to betting on horses unless you apply the same 'punt strategy' for both. There are instances where it makes sense to 'spread bet' over a longer horizon than merely a short term trade. There are a few examples in the commodities market where 'fundamentals' and 'technicals' have met nicely. Examples like Lumber, Orange Juice, Soybean Meal and Cotton to name a few. In my experience when there are clear signals of a bull market then it can be profitable to hold 'spread bets' for a longer period to achieve better profit maximisation. Again in my experience those who short tend to go for more shorter term 'spread bets'. I accept the image that spread betting is for short term trades still holds true to many. However, I find 'spread betting' bullish trends more profitable by holding until there is a clear trend reversal and this can be days, weeks, months, etc. However, where I agree with is that when using 'balance of probability' based on calculated odds then it is very similar to gambling. This is why you will find that some of the biggest hedge funds and quants hire professional poker players. These are people who are exceptional at calculating the odds of success or failure on a particular trade before making a decision on whether to trade or not.
  11. Punt = Casino / Bookies Punt = Trading without a plan / relying on luck and hope Strong Bullish Trend = Trading / Investment with a specific plan / Use of Risk Management
  12. The price action is lovely with Cotton right now with another additional strong breakout to the upside to support the current bullish trend in play. At the time of writing Cotton had hit $92.37. From my experience, this will now test the magical $100.00 mark. I have seen this time and time again when it gets close to such a critical price level the market, speculators, trend followers, etc. will all ensure this goes all the way to $100.00. Fundamentals are also positive with Cotton at the moment. It is reported that farmers in certain US states are ditching Wheat for Cotton. Also Cotton can withstand the drought. It is all about supply and demand. Around three years ago I recall low prices leading to farmers planting with the fewest acres with Cotton in over 30 years. This naturally brings us to where we are today due to simple supply and demand economics.
  13. IG's timing was actually very good when releasing this 'pair' for its clients to trade.
  14. Thanks for this . For me it is clear that there is a big margin between Bitcoin and Ether in terms of market cap. There is also a large margin between Bitcoin, Ether and the rest. XBT only offer products in SEK and EUR in relation to Bitcoin and Ether. I am not sure on Bitcoin Cash. What is stopping the super highly intellectual to come up with solutions to make Bitcoin's infrastructure the greatest? They have first mover advantage and have the biggest and most well known brand. It could be that the mystery may be solved by an equation like BTC + BCH + BTG = Bitcoin. Then using this formula the price predictions too of $50,000, etc. would be when you add all three together. After this one should be able to convert BTC into BCH or BTG. Once you can exchange cryptos within the Crypto universe then there is potential for a revolutionary digital payment atmosphere. The infrastructure is being built now.
  15. Have you posted here in error as you have just stated, "hello" and nothing else!
  16. , I personally would not be reducing my position at this stage. If anything I would be adding. I tend to 'pyramid' upwards so as the price increases I would add to my position on strength. Using oscillators you can buy on any drops/corrections during an uptrend to attempt a more efficient buying price. As I follow the price action then it that very price action that will ultimately signal to you that a possible trend reversal is coming. Whilst watching the price action one of the signals is when the trend begins to slow down. If your are monitoring the price action closely then you will pick up on this signal. There is normally a break in the trend line. Another signal is a strong move against the trend which is normally followed by a pullback. Another signal is when you see lower highs and lower lows. That is normally a very good indicator which signals a trend reversal. You can also use pivot points but I find trend lines are a very good place to start if you do not have much experience in identifying trend reversals. What I have suggested above is not 100% guaranteed to be successful but it offers you the best possible chance of predicting potential trend reversals. Spotting weakness in the trending move is a good place to start. For me the key is to follow the price action closely and when you live and breath using price action as a key indicator then you will generally get a feel of the trend weakening as it is occurring but this comes from experience. I am glad your position is doing nicely and I am glad to have helped.
  17. $60,122.90 hit today. WOW! What a trend! The risk here is that speculators are now pushing the price up. There could be a sharp fall at any moment so any short term trend reversal could lead into an amplified drop. This could be a possible shorting opportunity to make some profit in a very short space of time but only if any signals / indicators suggest a trend reversal which is certainly not the case at the moment.
  18. Orange Juice is trending up nicely. From a fundamental perspective, conditions in Brazil are in play. From a technical perspective there is buying pressure leading to some beautiful price action.
  19. Technical analysis can assist in the process of obtaining an 'edge'. It may not be the 'edge' itself but if used in a specific way then it could most certainly assist with the creation process of obtaining an 'edge'. Different investors/traders will have different 'edges'. For a long term investor having 'patience' may be part of their 'edge'. For a trader being able to identify patterns quickly may be part of their 'edge'. For longer term traders may be identify unique and obscure patterns may be part of their 'edge'. I write part of because an 'edge' could be several ingredients that create an 'edge' and not just one single thing. A black box system which can execute trades in nano seconds or faster than others can obtain an 'edge' for a trader. It will cost a lot of money. So a trader who is extremely wealthy in the first place who can purchase the best and fastest execution system can have a greater 'edge'. They could afford to keep buying a more better system in the future due to their wealth. If someone is able to spend more time in a day or have more time to conduct research can have an edge. Those who have access to information before anyone else can have an edge. Even understanding that having an 'edge' is important can give some an 'edge' over others! :smileyvery-happy:
  20. , Thanks for sharing this information so quickly.
  21. Looking at the 30 minute chart there seems to be a bullish trend line forming with support around the $720.00 mark. For me if Ether breaks the $800.00 mark then it will have a real go at $1000.00. This is when the fun will start as I think Bitcoin will go for the $10,000.00 mark. If and when these events occur you will see a mixture of institutional money beginning to flow in as well as the serious dumb money that is on the sidelines waiting to enter. At the moment Bitcoin and Ether are the two less riskier plays within the cryptocurrency market with the largest market caps and first mover advantages. With this in mind they still present extremely high risk trades.
  22. , I used to actively trade commodities back in 2006 - 2013 period using Exchange Traded Notes (ETN's) by ETF Securities. They offered leverage both to the long and short side with some products having x2, x3 and some specific with I think x5 leverage. As trading commodities can be high risk I used these products to help manage my risk. I could not lose more than my capital as there was no margin call to worry about. Also I could using hedging strategies such as going long corn and short wheat or long oil and short natural gas, etc. I agree my experience tells me a similar thing that there are always one or two commodities a year that give excellent returns on the long side. However, there are several that give even better returns on the short side. I don't know if you short commodities but have a look at those commodities that have gone down over the past 12 months and you will see from the charts some excellent opportunities to profit from prices going down. Have a look at platinum on the daily chart and you will see the opportunity to short from the start of the year. The same with Zinc, Lead and Soybean Oil. Sugar in my opinion has been an excellent shorting opportunity. One should not wait to go long on Sugar as an effective trade would have been to short it over the past 12 months. This is maximising your capital and profits allocated to trading commodities. When the trend reverses in Sugar then you can always go long Sugar then. This way you are utilising your capital to the maximum efficiency.
  23. May well do. The big boys like Goldman would not enter this arena without some sort of edge. My view is that cryptocurrency is being accepted as an asset class. I think regulation in different jurisdictions will follow. At the stage I do not know which cryptocurrencies will succeed or fail but they are the future and are not going anywhere.
  24. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-02/goldman-is-said-to-add-crypto-contracts-without-trading-bitcoins
  25. , I agree with you that Gold is susceptible to sudden moves in response to geopolitical events. Does the US, UK and France attack in Syria count? Does Trump and North Korea rhetoric count? Do the tensions between UK and Russia count? Do the Middle East tensions count? I think historically Gold has been susceptible to sudden moves in response to geopolitical events but there is a new asset in town which is where the capital is flowing in such times. The Big B. I am not suggesting this will last but this is the current trend. There is only space to the upside if capital flows to Gold. These institutions and governments have to feel that in such times of difficulty there is no other asset which the capital can flow to which is better than Gold. Lets be honest it is large institutions and governments that move the price of Gold. I can only see upside of around 1000 points to $1400 in the medium term. I suppose a short term play would be to go long Gold for it to hit $1350 levels. Right now it is in a trading range between $1300 - £1350. Then you short it to just below $1320 levels. Rinse and Repeat until it breaks this trading range!
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