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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @202925, No problem. That is ok. You may be right it may well be range bound but I cannot predict the future so I do not know that for sure based on current and more recent price action. Yes, I could do as you suggest but I will not be. I want to stay in this position as long as I can. No time limits. I will exit when the trend reverses. Until then I will remain in the position. One of the key principles of trend following is not to take profits too early and to let your winners run. If my trade was incurring losses then I would like to cut these losses quickly and move on. So then I would be looking to exit as early as possible. With Cryptocurrencies there can be extreme volatility so setting initial stop losses is extremely challenging as the risk is being stopped out and then the trend resuming in its direction of travel.
  2. @Caseynotes, Call me 'old fashioned' but I prefer to monitor price action of assets I am interested in trading and this will naturally identity the signals to me for opening / closing a potential trade. This method is more hard work but it means you are 'living and breathing' the trade and are in tune with the price action. These signals can be construed as a 'lazy' way in which you are relying on others and if the correct research has not been conducted and no fundamental understanding on why the price is behaving as it is then it can be very dangerous trading using such signals. Also this method can provide signals which are false breakouts or cannot anticipate 'vicious trend reversals' and for me there is nothing like good old 'watching the tape', Jesse Livermore style! But thanks for your response. I have had a look but there are not many assets if any that are of interest to me. As you will know I am a Cryptocurrency and Commodities trader. I tend to stick to those two assets as I simply do not have the time or capital to trade everything where there is a potential trend identified and trading opportunity. With Commodities I do tend to use fundamental analysis which is where my trading style differs from a 'typical' trend follower. It has served me rather well during my trades in Orange Juice and Lumber. In my experience the stronger the narrative, the stronger the potential trend.
  3. @Caseynotes & @CBMG, I just had a look at that but I am not sure. Have a look at this links below. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/IG-Index-Autochartist.html https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/ig-markets-launches-autochartist-chart-pattern-recognition-tool/ What are your views?
  4. @zala, A very good question. Please see the link below from IG on volume. https://www.ig.com/uk/glossary-trading-terms/volume-definition I think the following paragraph is key: "Each market or exchange will track its own volume and distribute the data to traders. These volume reports usually come once an hour, but they are only estimates – for accurate volume figures traders have to wait until the end of the day." My personal opinion is that it will be close but not anywhere near as close or accurate as the actual amount of underlying contracts traded in the futures market. This is my personal opinion so it will be interesting to see what others within the IG Community think.
  5. @CBMG, May I ask who told you this? I think what you are referring to is the 'pencil' symbol on the left of the three dots and 4th from left towards right. Well that is how it shows up on my screen so I appreciate it may be different depending on how you have customised your screen. If you click on this you will see options such as 'Fibonacci Extension' and 'Elliott Wave (ABC)'. You will also see other options such as 'Gann Line' and 'Head and Shoulders' amongst others. I am assuming this is what you mean and and referring to.
  6. @Nelsy-Boy, I assume you are referring to 'Impulse Wave Pattern'? If so it is basically when there is strong price action in an asset which is in line with the main direction of the underlying trend. Those who follow 'Elliot Wave Theory' will be more familiar with this. It is also used when there is a strong downtrend in a particular asset with strong price action.
  7. @Mercury, No I cannot rule out another higher high on Oil but then again no one can. What I would say is that Oil seems unlikely to make a new higher high in 2018 based on the charts and looking at the time it took historically to make new higher highs. Having said that if some monumental news came out which could have a severe impact on Oil then anything is possible. At the moment it seems very unlikely that Oil will make a new higher high in 2018. As I mentioned before in a previous post many posts ago that I have not shorted Oil as my capital is being saved for Cryptocurrencies. I also previously stated that if I was trading Oil then at the time of my previous posts it would have been to open a short trade based on price action at the time of my previous posts. If you look at the chart (below) then it is very interesting. The 20 day moving average has crossed the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages and gone beyond downwards. I would have most probably opened a small short once the price had crossed the 20 day moving average and then added to my positions when the price crossed the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Oil has also crossed its 300 day moving average and is one it way towards 400 and 500 day moving averages as the chart below highlights.
  8. It will be interesting to see if Stellar can stay above 0.28 and try and hit the psychological 0.30. The downside risk is that there could be large correction as well. So far my long trade in Stellar has proved to be rather profitable. I did nothing too clever or fancy. I merely opened a long position based on price action and the price crossing the 20 and then 50 day moving averages. It has since crossed the 100 and 200 day moving averages. I accept the trade could have gone against me but at this point I know my exit will be profitable based on the trailing stop I have set.
  9. @anders, It is this upcoming fork that has stopped me even to attempt to trade Bitcoin Cash at this moment in time. There has been snippets of positive news on Bitcoin Cash recently but the upcoming fork creates far too much uncertainty for me at the moment. I will be very interested to see what happens to the price action after the upcoming fork.
  10. @Mercury, You obviously conduct some very detailed analysis and rules in place in order to open a trade. That is commendable. I do wonder if your methodology increases your odds of a successful trade? I appreciate in 'theory' it should. All the hard work you do in conducting such detailed analysis should be rewarded with more successful and profitable trades than most of us here on the IG Community. At the very least it should stack the odds in your favour. It would be interesting to know if such a method translated into superior trading performance. For me looking at the price action for Brent Crude and US Crude the only trade has been short from the start of October 2018 till present. That is nearly six weeks worth of price action. I have been pretty open and honest about such thoughts. If I am wrong then that is fine I have no issue with that. My thoughts are based simply on the price action and volume indicators using very simple and basic technical analysis. I wonder how many on IG Community have opened a short position on either Brent Crude or US Crude since October 2018? It would be interesting to know. If so why and what was the methodology behind opening the short? Different traders using different trading styles can interpret the data and the signals presented in different ways. This is what makes trading so unique and interesting. At times there can be no right or wrong as it does depend on timeframes for certain traders.
  11. @cryptotrader, Yes, I have acquired shares well over a year ago or maybe even two at slightly lower prices and similar prices that exist today. I really like their investment in BTL (listed in Toronto, Canada). Since I posted the RNS details the very next day it went down 20%+ as this is AIM after all! Vela has lots of potential and its market cap is pretty low and very attractive. That does not necessarily mean it is a good investment but I wanted exposure to BTL and I really like their investment in Portr Limited. I am acquiring Coinsilium and KR1 (formerly known as Kryptonite1 PLC) on any major price weaknesses as I think those two will be 'gems' of the future in the Crypto / Blockchain / Tokenisation space. Disclosure: I am not trading Vela, Coinsilium and KR1. I am investing in them for the long term.
  12. @Mercury, Just watch how quick Oil goes down from the start of October 2018 before it corrects compared to any recent historical uptrend move. The speed in which it moves downwards will be amplified with a mixture of short positions opening, profit taking, selling, etc. From my experience the balance of probability on short trades especially in commodities for a successful and profitable position (as long as stop loss risk management is sound and effective) is greater than long trades in commodities. That is just my personal experience and others may have a different experience. The downtrends seem to be stronger in commodities. Something to consider is volume and the data on open interest as these can be very effective indicators which can aid when making trading decisions.
  13. I have included the chart (below) which highlights the 'Volume' and 'Volume Weighted Moving Average'.
  14. @Caseynotes, thanks for this. I have found the link below which gives the free .pdf as @Caseynotes suggested. https://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/3212_11399310873.pdf One must not underestimate the important volume and when combined with price action in my opinion are the key indicators to identify potential trends to trade.
  15. A very important factor that traders sometimes do not consider is 'Volume'. I look at volume especially when trading shares. Volume indicators will display the number of shares that have been traded during a particular time period. Conducting analysis on volume can be an important tool because it can reflect not just the opinions of traders out there but the real trading behaviour of traders in the market and can provide a second piece of information rather than just simply analysing price behaviour. A volume indicator can provide information to support a confirmation of a price trend and could be used to identify any trend reversals. Volume can give you an idea of the true strength behind the trend. However, just because the volume is high does not necessarily mean a stronger trend. There are two main indicator signals that one could use which are 'Convergence' and 'Divergence'. For those who are new to trading or are not sure what this means I will try and be explain it as simple as I can. Convergence is when the volume moves in the same direction as the price. Divergence is when the volume moves in the opposite direction of the price. When an uptrend is supported by volume convergence then it can show that there is greater interest / enthusiasm for the share which could lead to more buying and and thus possibly higher prices. There is no guarantee of this though. I use it when trying to increase the odds in my favour for a share trade. I do not trade shares that often but will when the right opportunity presents itself.
  16. @Caseynotes, absolutely. I agree with your points. Many traders do not feel comfortable shorting. When I first started trading I too did not feel comfortable shorting. It was 'Trend Following' that really changed my way of thinking. If your aim is to profit from price movements and we all know markets trend up, down and sideways then it really does not matter if you profit from going long or short. In fact to maximise your profit if you are trading a particular asset class would be to go long and short depending on the trend to really give you the best chance in maximising your potential profits. I accept shorting could be deemed higher risk than going long as upward trends last longer than downward trends generally. Downward trends are more stronger by nature which one could argue could tilt the odds in your favour if the trade is executed well and stop losses are managed. This is where risk management really comes to the fore. This has been an interesting discussion which is what the IG Community is all about. I think there is not enough 'real time' sharing of trading ideas where the poster actually executes a trade in real time and shares it with the IG Community. I think that is what is required and I am sure it will come.
  17. @Mercury, Sorry my post was for @Caseynotes as I have clearly stated at the top, though anyone can comment such as yourself. It was not meant for you but more for the general community in IG so though I appreciate you may get 'all that' as you eloquently put it, it really is meant for those who may not get 'that'. Just because publications online and the media report that shorting is more risky does not necessarily mean that it is. It all depends on the circumstances of the potential short trade. As I have stated before prices will go down more rapidly than they will go up in general on most asset classes such as stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, etc. I accept that in the stock market the prices tend to go up around two thirds of the time but do not hold me to that. Once you identify a downward trend then it is more likely to be more robust than say an upward trend. It all depends on the experience and knowledge of the trader in terms of how risky it is. I totally accept that for a novice trader shorting would potentially present a greater risk. When shorting one can use CFD's or spread betting like myself. I am not sure I understand your stocks taking a hit on dividends point when shorting using say spread betting. If one is concentrating on say a particular asset class such as commodities then spotting shorting opportunities really is not that difficult. If one is monitoring the price action then spotting potential short trades is not difficult. If one has your technical analysis knowledge and experience then finding shorting opportunities is really not that hard. No @Mercury I was not talking about you when I stated, "but I agree with something you mentioned in another post." I meant @Caseynotes as my post was clearly marked for his attention. @Mercury, I think you misunderstand my points about technical analysis. I accept that I too use technical analysis when looking at charts and monitoring price action. I too use technical analysis to identify moving averages and when a price has crossed a certain moving average. I too use technical analysis to set my stop loss and exit a trade. I am not against technical analysis. I just agree with @Caseynotes that your trading system (you will be surprised how many do not even have a trading plan with aims and objectives) is sometimes more important than lots of charts, lines, abc's, etc. If one does not have a sound and robust trading system then all the charting, Fibonacci's, retracements, support and resistances can only get you so far. Over a period of time it is how good your trading system is that will go to determine how much more profit you make than your losses especially in the longer term. @Mercury, I have no problem with us differing in thoughts and opinions. It is very healthy and this debate is good, especially for those on the sidelines reading our posts as if not anything else it will certainly make them think hard about certain things.
  18. @Caseynotes, Risk management is crucial within any trading system using any trading strategy / philosophy. This is where a defined set of rules can assist traders. Having a trading plan which clearly defines how much capital to allocate in any one single trade is crucial. Protecting your capital has to be a key objective as if your capital diminishes then your ability make profits (certainly the amount of profits) diminishes with it. Capital protection is key. I personally only use profits from my investments elsewhere in my trading account. If I make losses then I am losing capital but it is the profits I have made from my investing. This does not make it ok. Losing profits is still losing capital but that is a personal strategy I have adopted and have used over many years - to only trade with profits made from investing. Losing profits is losing capital and it should still be minimised and not treated more favourably or any different. In my experience markets go down a lot quicker than when they go up. This must be factored into your risk management. Another important point is that we will all make losses. Making losses is part of trading. Yes we wish to minimise losses and this is where our risk management will come in but it does not matter what strategy we adopt and how many charts we look at and how much data we analyse we will make losses. Therefore rather than focus on winning trades and profits you must focus possibly more on your losing trades and how to minimise your losses. Stop losses are extremely important but if the trade goes against you and your stop loss kicks in then you will have made a loss. It may well be a large loss or small loss but the key point is position size. How much capital you allocate to each position will play an important part in determining how big or small your loss is. One of the reasons why it is reported that computers outperform humans is because computers will not try and rationalise the trade they will just follow the process. Sometimes we can rationalise the trade so much that we miss the opportunity to actually make the correct call and trade the opportunity in front of us. I recently witnessed a lot of debate on Oil. I asked the question why no one was discussing shorting oil. By the time we had all wrote our opinions, the profit making opportunity diminishes though with Oil it still seems to be there. I am not against technical analysis (I use it to a certain degree) or charts (I view them daily for price action and trends) but I agree with something you mentioned in another post. The trading system being used is more important. The trading plan is more important. The trading strategy (aims and objectives) is more important. Capital allocation, trade size and stop loss strategy are crucial in risk management.
  19. Vela jumped around 27% today. It released the following RNS today. Update re. BTL Group Ltd https://www.investegate.co.uk/vela-technologies--vela-/rns/update-re--btl-group-ltd/201811081247088081G/
  20. Stellar is performing admirably compared to other cryptocurrencies today. It seems to have formed an ascending triangle with higher lows. This is rather interesting and it could be that Stellar may be poised for a breakout. I would like to see higher highs as well. This would be extremely positive and encouraging. I think if the news is positive then the price action will support a move up to $0.30. This is only an assumption from me and I cannot say for sure that this will happen. It seems Stellar's dominant trend is the uptrend based on the daily chart. It will be interesting to see how this performs.
  21. Cryptocurrencies are volatile by nature. History tells us this and nothing about its current price activity has altered this so far. This may be changing on Bitcoin based on reports I have read but for the other alt coins volatility does not seem to have changed. Yes, historically I would have expected to see all cryptocurrencies move together but things are changing. For example Ripple and Stellar's charts are looking different to Bitcoin and Ether's. It seems they both are trying to eat into the market share that Bitcoin and Ether once enjoyed and to a certain extent are still enjoying, well Ether just about! Ripple is hot on its heels to take over as the 2nd largest valued by market cap. I do not trade Bitcoin and Ether. I have invested in both of them a couple of years ago through Exchange Traded Notes (ETN's) using XBT Provider One. I managed to invest in Bitcoin when it was around the $2000 mark and have held ever since. They are long term investments for me which I will just hold. I am not sure about adding to them as I watched them go all the way to $20,000 and then back to $6000. If Ripple goes below its current 100 day moving average price then my stop loss will execute me out of the trade. This is a more speculative trade for me and I want to test some theories and assumptions to see how they play out and sometimes you can only learn and gain experience by testing in the 'real market' in 'real market conditions'. One of my assumptions is that Ripple may have bottomed. Yes the price will go up and down like a yo-yo but I assume that it will do so slowly creeping upwards making higher lows which it has been doing since Monday 17th September 2018. It failed to make a higher high which is of concern. If the price of Ripple goes below 38.85 then I will accept I got this trade wrong.
  22. @Mercury, I think it is extremely important to understand what exactly 'money management' is. It is basically all to do with the amount of capital you allocate to a specific trade. In other words the actual size of your position that you trade. One could also add the amount of leverage one uses as part of money management. I personally think stop losses would also be part of money management as it has an impact on the amount of profit / loss one is going to make. Good / sound money management will assist one in making as much profit as possible and at the same time make the amount of losses as low as possible. One could argue that money management is there to reduce / minimise risk. So this in effect could be viewed as 'risk management'. The one thing you forgot to mention was 'trading risk'. Now, I love playing Poker. Poker can be a simple and fun game on a basic level. However on a more higher level it is all about odds and probability. Trading risk is all about the probability of losing a trade and the capital being used to trade. My answer to your question 1. is another question - Does it really matter? Stop losses are an important part of trading and risk management / money management. My answer to question 2. is that I tend to use a trailing stop which I use to trail my stop loss below the previous swing low until the price goes through it. I am also an advocate of moving averages. For short term trades I sometimes will use a stop loss when the price goes below the 20 DMA. For medium term trends - 100 DMA and for longer term trends - 200 DMA. I also sometimes use base stop losses when the faster moving average goes below the slower moving average and I would then exit my long trade. If the faster moving average goes above the slower moving average then I would exit my short trade. When there is a strong trend demonstrated by the price action then from my experience the price tends to move away from the moving averages. When the trend gets weaker it tends to move nearer to the moving averages. I find that the moving averages can act more as support and resistance. It would be interesting to see how others set their stop losses and what their trading style is.
  23. @Mercury, I don’t mean historical trades but in real time like I have done. So your next new trade whether it be long or short. ??
  24. Disclosure: I have an equity stake in this business and am a shareholder. I have included the link to Pod Point below as some of you may find the company very interesting. https://pod-point.com