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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. This is a bit of very interesting news that has come out. There is a wave of momentum for blockchain as the smart money is moving into the opportunities that are presenting themselves. https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/france-allows-trading-unlisted-securities-blockchain-platforms/
  2. If Bitcoin can break $18,000 then my opinion is that it will charge to $20,000 pretty quickly. The media will want to report how the biggest bubble in their lifetime hit the magic $20,000 in time for either Christmas Day or New Years Day. Also when the $20,000 hits some parts of the media will bring out the $48,000 target, $50,000 and even dare I say $100,000 target. I am contemplating if there is a pattern where Bitcoin leads a charge then some of the capital shifts to smaller Alt Coins, then some it shifts back to Bitcoin with fresh new money and similar patterns repeat meaning the whole Crypto universe in general goes up.
  3. This is a very interesting piece of news. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-gibraltar-regulator-blockchain/gibraltar-launches-financial-services-licence-for-blockchain-idUKKBN1E81JP Coinsilium, the blockchain venture builder and investor that finances and manages the development of early-stage blockchain technology companies, announced a few months ago (August I think) the formation of Terrastream Limited in Gibraltar. Terrastream aims to build an Enterprise standard blockchain-powered platform for the generation of token-based alternative funding solutions designed to operate in compliance with Gibraltar’s proposed forthcoming Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) Regulatory Framework. If anyone is interested then Coinsillium is listed on the NEX Growth Market.
  4. There are several other Cryptocurrencies that have performed admirably even when compared to Bitcoin's performance. The following Alternative Cryptocurrencies interest me for different reasons (different topic all together): IOTA - Blockchain / Internet of Things Stellar Lumens - Satoshi Pay Dash, Ripple and Litecoin - Huge potential Do IG offer any of these? Of course not. They cannot even offer positions when we want on Bitcoin, Ether and Bitcoin Cash which are the top three Crypto's by market cap, liquidity and volume.
  5. Trend following is a style like value investing. Then there is momentum trading and swing trading. These are all different variations. I agree it is down to your personality, mentality, time frame, aim and objectives, etc. Covel is a marketing man. I agree. He has not made millions investing. I agree. The one thing I would state is be-careful of media links from publications that could include bias. Also what we read is not always right. A perfect example of this is Jamie Dimon stating that Bitcoin was a fraud and is now stating that something slightly different but he is nevertheless not stating it is a fraud at the moment. Someone has asked him to put money where is mouth is and short it using futures. I think media publications online are at times dangerous. Evidence is a strong word. Evidence is basically the available facts or information supporting whether a belief is correct or not. In your links which bits are evidence and which bits are facts? What is the source and how credible is the source. For example an RNS released by a company may be official but also may not necessarily contain the facts as we understand them. They can be interpreted differently. You may be right, I am not suggesting you are not. I have my own opinions and beliefs based on my education, knowledge and experience. I try and keep things simple. I think several of us are merely suggesting reading such books. Whether one believes everything or adopts everything is for them to decide. I don't adopt or believe everything I read but that is for me to decide.
  6. I invested in XBT Tracker One Bitcoin in EUR and SEK (Swedish Krona) via the broker Hargreaves Lansdown a while back. Both are up by 130% in just 3 weeks. Dealing charges are £11.95 to buy and £11.95 to sell. I accept it is not the same as spread betting which is free from Income Tax and Capital Gains Tax and also you miss out on the leverage but 130% in around three weeks is not to be sniffed at. HL also offer Ether in EUR and SEK too with the same charges. XBT are an extremely big Swedish outfit and are the biggest Bitcoin tracker fund along with the Bitcoin Investment Trust but that was trading at a premium to its NAV and not sure what the premium is right now but so far I have no complaints about the EUR and SEK versions for Bitcoin. It has performed exactly like I thought it would. Just be careful of the currency risk as it tracks Bitcoin in USD and you are using GBP to buy in EUR and SEK so there is 'currency risk' in this investment.
  7. I thought I would test IG's platform and I was utterly disappointed. There are no more excuses about 'wallet risk' etc. It is clearly a poor level of service. I wanted to add to my long positions at 18:36 today (12.12.17) in Bitcoin, Ether and Bitcoin Cash all in USD and was unable to do so. "You cannot buy this market to open" - This is the message I kept on getting. If this is the case then IG please close the market until you can offer your clients / customers a level of service which means that during anytime in the week during any hour one can go either long or short in the Cryptocurrencies that you claim to offer. It is just that they are never available when the market is clearly in an extremely strong trend.
  8. James, I think Ether is very interesting. It is obviously the 2nd biggest Cryptocurrency after Bitcoin by market cap. It has also just hit its all time high and is currently trading above $600.00. I did notice it hit around $628.00 earlier on. I have a smaller position in Ether than Bitcoin only because the trend is stronger in Bitcoin. However, I do think Ether will hit at least $1,000.00 very soon into 2018. I don't know if you have heard of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance. Basically the likes of JP Morgan, Microsoft, Intel and IBM have got together to build business ready versions of the software behind Ethereum. Now these are not Micky Mouse companies. I think the likes of BP are using it and Ethereum is built on a new generation of blockchain technology and is optimised for software engineers. Its real business application potential is absolutely huge. As the Ethereum network gains more traction and get more adoption then I can see the currency of the Ethereum platform, Ether, gaining in price. I think other Crypto's to look out for and are of interest to me is Dash, Ripple and Litecoin. I will leave more detail in this for another post at another time. I think Satoshi Pay as a company is interesting. It has teamed up with Stellar Lumens which has been rising in price recently. Satoshi Pay is looking at nano payment technology.
  9. Oilfxpro, Thanks for that. I use Oscillators in trending markets. Momentum is a key ingredient for me. Stochastic Oscillators help traders define an entry and exit point based on the direction of the trend.
  10. I tend to read: Coindesk Cryptocurrencynews Coin Telegraph I am not suggesting that these are the best websites in relation to Crypto's and Blockchain but these are the ones I tend to read throughout the day.
  11. Caseynotes, I totally agree with you in relation to having an 'edge'. This is absolutely crucial to be successful in the long term. Without an 'edge' it is near impossible to be successful and consistently make more profits than losses. Oilfxpro, Michael Covel is a marketing man. That is what he is. John W Henry was an example but the point you are missing from your article is that he himself is still a billionaire. Your article states that due to dwindling assets he stopped taking clients money and trading. That is actually quite sensible. He was unable make money using trend following during a period of time and was making losses for his clients. The key is his clients. He still is a billionaire. I certainly don't advocate Covel himself. I use trend following on commodities and shares. I must admit I have not tried it on FX and maybe it does not work and I accept that it cannot work in all markets all of the time. Nor can any other strategy which is why I have a collusions of styles with a little bit of fundamentals (base story which has a strong foundation), technicals (which show me a clear trend in play), relevant knowledge or information to understand why the price is moving, etc. So for example when the hurricane was going to hit Florida even before it hit Lumber and Orange Juice were increasing. This was due to a forecast assessment on the likely damage that would be caused. The story was set. Florida was one of the largest Orange producers. There was a fundamental reason to enter the trade. The charts told me that in anticipation money was entering these two trades and an uptrend had started. Now there was a technical reason to enter the trade. To finish off, Covel is someone who brings other people's work in Trend Following to the masses. He himself is not a trader and has not made money on the markets. I assume that both Caseynotes and Oilfxpro are fx traders judging by your posts? I don't trade fx only commodities, cryptocurrencies and shares. Algorithmic 'Black Box' trading using trend following. I accept it costs a lot of time and money with a lot of back testing but people who use such methods tend to have a form of trend following incorporated into it.
  12. Can I ask how much money Mark Douglas made and what his net worth was before he died I think a couple of years ago from memory. What did Mark Douglas trade and how did he make his name / reputation? What markets did he specialise in and make millions in? How successful a trader was Mark Douglas? John W Henry was one of the greatest trend followers. He now owns Liverpool FC.
  13. I believe that capital allocation is being shifted from Gold to Bitcoin (the new Digital Gold or Gold v 2.0). As the Bitcoin price increases the Gold price is decreasing. The charts show this story well. I am long Bitcoin but maybe a good trade is to be short Gold at the same time. It is not a hedge against Bitcoin trade but a trade to maximise profits if the shift really is occurring then profit can be maximised in such a trade. This would be an aggressive trade and a risky one too but it is something worth considering. I think an even aggressive trade would be shorting Silver at the same time as being long Bitcoin. Very high risk trading idea but for those aggressive, ruthless and greedy traders it may be worth consideration.
  14. I think we are getting close to a Bitcoin ETF. Even if the initial few are rejected they will eventually succeed. It is hard to authorise / approve Bitcoin Futures and then not Bitcoin ETF's if everything for the ETF is per regulations.
  15. Bitcoin is on fire at the moment. I stated in previous posts that I fully expected $20,000 to be hit and it looks like it will be soon at this rate. Investors and traders use the word momentum a lot but Bitcoin is a prime example of an investment or trade that has pure momentum. This is the strongest trend I have ever experienced in my lifetime. The trend is your friend and never bet against the trend. Which is why I advised others not to short Bitcoin unless your are a professional day trader or a downtrend is confirmed by moving averages over say 20 day period, 50 day period and 200 day period depending on your timeframe and horizon of trading. I do sense a familiar patter of Bitcoin increasing and Gold decreasing in price. This is why I think there could be a shift of capital allocation from Gold to Bitcoin. If this is happening then $1 trillion market cap and more is coming. It means $48,000 Bitcoin price is coming. The market, Hedge Funds, speculators, big investment banks, etc. will make it happen. If a Bitcoin ETF is approved then watch the Bitcoin price storm towards £48,000.
  16. I have not read any Mark Douglas books but I will bear in mind for the future.
  17. I think if $1200 is broken, then $1150 is broken then we may see selling down to around the $1060 area. Anything below this and I think Gold is in big, big trouble. There is downward momentum and this combined with shift of capital is extremely dangerous for Gold.
  18. At present - 18:55 today the precious metals - Gold and Silver are certainly not shining. Both looking like they are preparing for the next leg down. During this Bitcoin is looking like it is preparing for its next leg up. Is anyone stopping the big institutions and Central Governments from buying more Gold? Absolutely not. We have passed the Chinese New Year and Diwali (India) and it still had not made an 'ounce' of difference. The price action of Bitcoin is certainly supporting the view that is Digital Gold or Gold v.2.0. There was a potential terrorist led explosion in New York and the Gold price is going down and Bitcoin price is not. Which of these looks like a safe haven?
  19. At present - 18:55 today the precious metals - Gold and Silver are certainly not shining. Both looking like they are preparing for the next leg down. During this Bitcoin is looking like it is preparing for its next leg up. Is anyone stopping the big institutions and Central Governments from buying more Gold? Absolutely not. We have passed the Chinese New Year and Diwali (India) and it still had not made an 'ounce' of difference. The price action of Bitcoin is certainly supporting the view that is Digital Gold or Gold v.2.0. There was a potential terrorist led explosion in New York and the Gold price is going down and Bitcoin price is not. Which of these looks like a safe haven?
  20. I do not trade FX. I trade mainly commodities and cryptocurrencies. I sometimes trade shares. You may be right that trend following may not work with FX. I don't know as I have not tried. It certainly works with commodities and shares. I have tried it on both and yes you make losses and get things wrong but generally if you stick to your rules and have strict risk management in play then it works. It takes a lot of fine tuning to get a system and style within trend following in place which suits your personality, behaviour, emotion and mental state. I came second in the recent November competition and have received the following books: Blockchain - Blueprint for a new economy - Melanie Swan Blockchain Revolution - How the technology behind Bitcoin is changing money, business and the world - Don and Alex Tapscott The Book of Satoshi - The collected writings of Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto - Phil Champagne Digital Gold - The untold Bitcoin story - Nathaniel Popper These books will help me when investing in companies involved in the Blockchain space. So far with my knowledge I have invested in: Coinsillium Kryptonite 1 PLC Vela Technologies Blue Star Capital PLC Hopefully with my increased knowledge after reading these books I will be able to find more blockchain investment opportunities and evaluate their prospects better. I should be able to conduct better due diligence as well.
  21. Oilfxpro, the website you are providing the link for, how credible is it? I agree with you that those who make billions in the stock market are not authors. However where books like Market Wizards and New Market Wizards are slightly different is that Jack Schwager the author brings the interviews of these traders into the book for the readers. It is the magnet that brings the readers who want to improve their trading with those that have been successful. I suggest you read Market Wizards and New Market Wizards before you judge. I am by no means saying that they are the best books on trading or investing. It just helps the reader understand the thought process and mechanisms behind how the successful traders made billions. Michael Covel is merely a marketing man who brings trend following to the attention of those who have not heard of the concept and believe me there are many that never have because all they know is Warren Buffett and Value Investing. However if it does not interest you and you are not convinced then that is fine. However, what you seem to be doing is influencing other readers of these posts not to waste their time reading any books being suggested. Why is the link you keep posting any more credible than the books? Why should someone read your link and believe it than what is in trend following books?
  22. The Bitcoin price is still standing! The futures made a very promising start and a positive one for the price of Bitcoin. However, it is early days. Whilst there is a possibility of an ETF for Bitcoin being launched then the price still has more potential for growth as it will attract a different type of investor to now and also more in quantity. With more mainstream adoption, with more investors investing, with volumes increasing, liquidity improving then I think it is only a matter of time that a Bitcoin ETF is launched and when that news is announced, I see the Bitcoin price showing a phenomenal increase. There will be be drops, corrections, falls along the way but short this beast at your peril. I personally think shorting Bitcoin is more suitable for day traders who have their eye on the price constantly throughout the day due to extreme volatility. I mean when I went to sleep the price was around $14k and I woke up to $16k+.
  23. Caseynotes, I am coming across a lot of people asking this same question. Thanks for posting this. I think it maybe an idea for James to look into seeing if this could be posted however small on the main website page? Just a thought.
  24. There is a lot of research that can be done on Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain. Using the internet to gain a better understanding on these three things is fine. However my experience over the past 10+ years has taught me how to ignore media articles no matter how credible the source behind the article is as ultimately there is always media bias towards one side or another. I call this 'market noise' and as a trend follower do not take much notice of such articles. The key which I consistently reiterate is monitoring the price action and volume. This will determine whether to go long or remain long. If the trend changes and this is confirmed by the charts then it will be time to go short. At present this has not happened which is why the long option is the only one on Bitcoin from a trading perspective. No one knows how Bitcoin will react to tomorrow's futures trading and therefore if anyone opened a short position prior then it is pure speculative gambling and nothing more. I will never get in at the lowest point or sell at the highest point. My aim is to get the biggest chunk possible of the middle bit as I wait for trend confirmation before going long, short, taking profits or losses.
  25. I started trading Bitcoin on IG initially. I was taking profits on a weekly basis. Then I got a bit greedy and starting taking profits on a daily basis. Now I am no day trader and nor do I have the time to be due to my work commitments. However, due the volatility of Bitcoin my stops started getting triggered and I started to make more losses. This combined with the lack of availability to trade Bitcoin when I wanted to led me to uncover XBT Tracker One Bitcoin in EUR and SEK. I invested in both and made over 100% return in less than a month. I am still invested in these and it takes the emotion and daily / weekly decision making out of the equation though I still monitor price on daily basis. Day trading trend followers welcome volatility as it means they can make money both on the long and short side. That is not something I have the time for but if you were a professional day trader then they would welcome volatility. There are also opportunities to spot patterns and trends on range bound markets too. Bitcoin is the biggest trend and opportunity to create wealth quickly in my lifetime. It is also the riskiest in my lifetime too. There are many who are making thousands of pounds and hundreds of thousands of pounds on trading Bitcoin with plenty of leverage. Yes totally dangerous risk but it all depends on one's risk / reward strategy. I tend to purchase using oscillators on strong trends I have identified. I have found it extremely tricky to set stop losses on Bitcoin. In hindsight when I started putting my own capital into Bitcoin at around $2,300 levels then if I had just left it in there with leverage on IG then I would have made a lot of profit. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. I have invested in businesses involved in Blockchain. I think even if Bitcoin were to crash then the companies involved in the technology underpinning it are not going anywhere. Even the people slating Bitcoin accept the impact Blockchain could have being similar to the Internet. Lets see but Oilfxpro, thanks for replying.
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