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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @cryptotrader, normally when the media starts reporting that a hurricane will be arriving shortly (within weeks) the speculative money starts flowing in (early). This is even before the hurricane has even hit its forecasted target. This was evidenced by the price action of Orange Juice futures when the media were reporting on Hurricane Irma. From my experience once the hurricane has hit its intended target and the devastation is known you may see further upside if the damage is worse than predicted. However, after this point the selling begins and profits are taken so there is always a healthy correction / drop. When the damage is not as bad as expected and the predictions are way out then the selling more or less starts as soon as this is known which is pretty quick nowadays.
  2. @Bobbyaxlerod, yes Billions is a fantastic show. Damien Lewis plays the character Bobby Axelrod very well.
  3. @cryptotrader, are you referring to the last reply? Sometimes the originator of the thread (which is different) has posted the last reply?
  4. In case some of you missed this posting from IG a couple of weeks ago. What is the ADX indicator and how do I use it in trading? https://www.ig.com/au/trading-opportunities/using-the-adx-indicator-in-trading-180906
  5. One must remember that media news is always behind / after any price action event. Price action leads up to the media news reporting. The article below highlights this nicely. Europe's carbon market bull run hits a wall https://uk.reuters.com/article/europe-carbontrading-prices/europes-carbon-market-bull-run-hits-a-wall-idUKL5N1W02OG
  6. @zala, you don't need to use quote here as what happens is my posting is in effect showing twice if you scroll up. If you use the @ sign and type Trendfollower you can refer posts to me which reduces the need to quote. I think the quote option is better on specific words and sentences that you wish to discuss and refer to. Whole postings like this just seem a waste on the thread. From a technical perspective, I can only see downward movement unless the trend reverses for both London and Chicago Wheat. How long did you hold your trade for? When you say you could not see anymore down-movement this can be tested in the coming week. Lets see how both the price of London and Chicago Wheat behave and act. The best way to test any inferences one may elude to and test and assumptions is to merely look at the price action.
  7. If one looks at London Wheat then it looks like an attractive short. New York Cocoa, Soybean Meal and Chicago Wheat also look as if there are shorting opportunities. The charts below will show one thing in common they are all trading below the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages.
  8. @cryptotrader / @PandaFace, For me if there is a trend then I am interested. Whether that be because of political unrest, war propaganda and rhetoric, extreme weather conditions (El-Nino) or whatever. Have a look at my historical posts on Orange Juice during the Florida Hurricane Irma and the posts should answer most of your questions. I tend to agree with @Caseynotes post. For me the most important question is are you doing anything illegal trading soft commodities should their prices be affected by extreme weather conditions? For me the answer is no. In terms of morals and ethics I will leave that for others to discuss. I am interested in trading trends regardless of asset class though I tend to stick to commodities and cryptos with the odd shares. If I have not identified a trend then I am more than happy to patiently wait until I do identify a suitable trend to trade. Sometimes doing nothing is the right option.
  9. Some of you may want to have a look at Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle for those interested in riding trends. For those who want to manage their risk on the trade could decide to short one of them as a pair trade. If one attempts this type of trade then they need to go long on the one they feel is likely to go up by more points. For example at the time of writing Live Cattle is up 300 points and Feeder Cattle is up 430 points. So one could go long Feeder Cattle and Short Live Cattle. For the aggressive trader they may decide to go long both to maximise any returns / profits. Some of you may just go long on one of them. There are several ways you could play this trade.
  10. I thought some of you may find this article rather interesting. The Great Lumber Slump https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203825-great-lumber-slump
  11. EU CO2 prices fall back for third straight day, breaching Eur21.00/mt 'on profit-taking' https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/091318-eu-co2-prices-fall-back-for-third-straight-day-breaching-eur2100mt-on-profit-taking
  12. @zala, I can see why it would remind you of this. Now think what if the very people whose stop losses were being triggered after holding a long position are the same people who short to trigger the next move down and the subsequent stop losses. What if this is pre-planned? What if this behaviour is to help maximise profits for these people who may be speculators both on the uptrend and downtrend? Add to the mix not necessarily individual traders but institutional positions and capital. Then add 'algo' trading where machines are executing such trades based on a set of parameters. Then one could begin to see how such sharp moves down could occur in such a short space of time without any fundamental news to support it.
  13. This article really supports the potential of Blockchain. Blockchain Could Boost Trade Finance by $1 Trillion, WEF Research Says https://www.coindesk.com/blockchain-could-boost-trade-finance-by-1-trillion-wef-research-says/ Another interesting article is below. The World Bank is a verified blockchain booster https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612043/the-world-bank-is-a-verified-blockchain-booster/
  14. @zala, one assumes that there was a lot of speculative money in Carbon Emissions. This may be a reason why you cannot find any fundamental news to support or explain the drop. I think one must hold their short position until there is a clear exhaustion of downward movement or clear trend reversal back to the long side. Also what happens when speculators start to close their positions is that it triggers stop losses. The speculators then as a result start shorting. This again triggers more stop losses. This effect amplifies the drop and the chart clearly shows a sharp correction. It may continue tomorrow and the days after as more shorts trigger more stop losses which encourage those very same people to short as well.
  15. I did say in my last post that there was an almighty shorting opportunity in Carbon Emissions and boy as it come and come quick. At the time of writing it is down some 394 points and around 17%!
  16. I am bored of the constant changes in the iPhone, iPad's, iMac's and iWatches. Apple are maximising their profits but as an iPhone user I just cannot be bothered with these events anymore. Apple will just merely make apps and send software update downloads which will render older devices useless, slow, and the need for change will arise on those who do not want to keep on changing their phones. This is from someone who uses an iPhone, iPad and iMac! I understand from a business perspective why Apple do it. To keep ahead of the competition they must. From a consumer perspective I am just not interested in such events any more. They were great initially but now I don't even tune into them. When I feel like changing my phone or I need to change my phone then I will research what the latest Apple device is and buy it but until then I am more than happy to keep using the device I have if it does its purpose.
  17. @zala, I trade commodities but only when the opportunity arises or is presented. Otherwise I am happy to stay on the sidelines and wait patiently for such opportunities. Recent commodity opportunities have been in the likes of Carbon Emissions, Lumber, Orange Juice, etc. I don't tend to go into the sort of fundamental analysis you are looking for as my decisions are based purely on price action (technicals) with fundamentals there just to support and understand the trade better. Price action alone determines my entry and exit into the trade. In my experience the commodites market does not always move in sync with fundamental news released by the media. I will be interested to see how your approach fares with information (parameters / indicators). Does this improve your chances of success? On the face of it, your chances should improve. I will be interested in whether it does in reality. It is very good to be thorough and to research your asset class before trading which is what you seem to be doing. That seems a very sensible start.
  18. I think this is an encouraging article for the Cryptocurrency / Blockchain area. At top schools like Wharton, students are flocking to classes on bitcoin and blockchain https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/12/top-schools-like-wharton-seeing-demand-for-bitcoin-blockchain-classes.html
  19. @zala, have a look at some of my threads and posts in the Commodities section if you are interested. You will see that most of my posts within the threads are based around price action and the behaviour of the asset price. I do look at fundamentals in the sense of understanding why the asset price is moving the way it is. What is the reason behind the move and what story the price action is trying to tell. I think if you just pick a few commodities that really interest you in terms of trading. Don't pick too many but just a couple of even one. Then just follow the price action daily. Follow it on your phone, follow it at home on your desktop. Follow it in the lounge on your tablet. TrendFollower Tip: Identify a commodity which breakouts to the upside to keep things nice and simple. Maybe it has gone above its 20 day moving average. Look for one that you can trade with the trend and that the balance of probability and odds of success are in your favour. At the same time research online to see why the move is occurring. Start of with a small allocation of capital to the trade. Don't worry about making a loss or failing. Get a feel and live and breathe the commodity you are trading. Remember set a stop loss so you know your exit price and maximum loss before you even enter the trade. Once in profit then set a trailing stop. Do not exit unless there is a clear trend reversal. If the price keeps going up then think about adding to your position. This is the best learning. If the trade fails and you make a loss then learn why you think the trade went against you? What could you have done differently. If you cannot identify a trade then do not enter open a position. Wait patiently until a trend emerges in a commodity that you feel comfortable trading.
  20. Trading commodities is difficult at the best of times. I am not suggesting fundamentals are not important but for me trading with the trend is one of the most important things in commodities trading. El Nino (Extreme Weather Conditions) can affect commodity prices Speculators can affect commodity prices. Bad harvests can affect commodity prices. Excessive demand can affect commodity prices. Limited supply can affect commodity prices. Excessive supply can affect commodity prices. Limited demand can affect commodity prices. Economic / political factors can affect commodity prices.
  21. There certainly is a strong trend in Lumber and it is downwards. The short trade is the only trade right now. For those who got in well done. For those who have not then be careful as Lumber is tanking far quicker than the time it took to reach its recent peak. Short trades normally last a shorter period than long trades. The chart below shows that Lumber is clearly below its 20 day, 50 day and 100 day moving averages.
  22. This is a very interesting article I read this morning. Is Bitcoin Charting a 2015-Style Price Bottom? https://www.coindesk.com/is-bitcoin-charting-a-2015-style-price-bottom/
  23. I read this article this morning and thought some of you may find it an interesting read. Here’s what the blockchain is for – and when I think bitcoin will hit a bottom https://moneyweek.com/494779/heres-what-the-blockchain-is-for-and-when-i-think-bitcoin-will-hit-a-bottom/
  24. This RNS was released yesterday afternoon at a very funny time. I only noticed it this morning. KR1 PLC is listed on the NEX Growth Market. https://www.investegate.co.uk/kr1-plc--kr1-/prn/investments/20180911141720P8EA7/
  25. I think Argo Blockchain was just over valued at IPO. There are lots of people siting on losses who invested at the IPO price. The price action is pretty negative. The latest on Argo is below: Argo Blockchain adds two new cryptocurrencies to its mining platform http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/204621/argo-blockchain-adds-two-new-cryptocurrencies-to-its-mining-platform-204621.html