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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. What I am about to share with you all at the IG Community is something which I think some of you will find very interesting and useful. As many of you will know that I look to trade the 'Strongest Trending Assets' and they can be a Cryptocurrency, Commodity, Bond, Indices, etc. It does not matter what the asset is. DIVERSIFICATION – WHAT MOST NOVICE INVESTORS MISS ABOUT TREND FOLLOWING https://investresolve.com/blog/diversification-what-most-novice-investors-miss-about-trend-following/
  2. @dmedin, One very important point to remember when looking at 'Moving Averages' in hindsight like the chart above is that at the start of the blue area so bottom left corner at that point the moving average curves would be looking different as they are constantly changing based on historical prices. Those curves are what the moving averages curves look like now but they may not have been looking like that at the point I am referring to. Moving averages evolve as days go by. Their curves change as the days go by. What you want to do is show what the moving averages curves looked like on the chart at the start of bottom left of the blue area. Don't get me wrong I use moving averages as part of my trading strategy. So I am certainly not against it but you must appreciate that you cannot merely use moving averages in isolation. They must be used with other signals/indicators before you make your trading decisions. Using just the method you suggest would be very high risk and would require a lot of luck and hope which are two words serious traders want to avoid. There is no place for luck and hope in trading successfully and profitably on a consistent basis over a long period of time. Also the trader must be an exceptional stock picker or their stock selection for trading must be exemplary!
  3. @trade247, Not just doubling your money but far bigger. Just look at the returns for Ether, Bitcoin Cash and co from January 1st 2020 to right now. The returns are staggering and just a mere 100% is not even close the returns that can be made on Crypto both on the 'long' side and the 'short' side.
  4. Bitcoin's price behaviour has turned bullish again. $10,199.10 has just been hit. I would love to see Bitcoin cross $12k - $14k and go towards its all time high. I personally feel that Bitcoin is going to correct by around 80% after this current upward move (halving event) and when it does I would like to think I am smart enough to accumulate more physical Bitcoin. I have acquired physical Bitcoin as I think anything less than $10k is a bargain should Bitcoin surpass its all time high of around $20k.
  5. Bitcoin's price is above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's on the daily. That is the price level for me which it must remain above. The trend is still upwards but when you zoom out of the daily you will see that the longer term trend of downwards is still in tact. Until a reversal in this is seen then the danger remains thus leading to high risk at this moment in time.
  6. For Stellar the psychological price point is $10.00 and for Ripple it is $50.00. The question is now whether both can reach and surpass this price levels?
  7. I think the path for Bitcoin Cash towards $600 is fraught with danger and volatility but that has to be the price target that is in play now unless this is a false move and the price continues downwards.
  8. I did not quite get the Monday morning right but certainly Tuesday afternoon! That is how quick Cryptos can move and that is how small the margin of difference is in terms of timing and timescales. I think any serious buying will take Litecoin into the 80's and 90's.
  9. Ether is trending strongly right now. Just have a look at the 'daily'. The returns are staggering. There will be many traders who will be missing out on Crypto because they think it is junk, garbage, etc. If a trader trades on price movement and price action then does it really matter what the asset is? If a trader has a risk management strategy and a stop loss in place then does it really matter what the asset is? Are you trading an asset right now which has demonstrated better returns than Ether or any of the major Cryptos? Ether is leading the way right now on this latest revival upwards.
  10. There are supply concerns being reported which may be the reason for the recent price action on Sugar. It seems there are tighter global sugar supplies. India Sugar Trade Association (ISMA) reported today that sugar production in India which is the world's largest sugar producer dropped sharply. The figures being quoted around -23% y/y to 16.66 MMT during October to February. It also seems that Sugar prices may be seeing some support from a drought in Thailand. Now Thailand is the world's fourth biggest sugar producer. Apparently if reports are accurate then this years drought was the worst in 40 years. So fundamentals / weather conditions / supply / production declines are in favour for Sugar prices to move upwards. It is being reported that Thailands sugar production could drop -25% y/y to 9 MMT from 14MMT in 2018/2019. This is down to dry conditions which would reduce sugarcane yields.
  11. Gold's price action has just given us a reason to initiate a 'long' trade. It is now trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA's on the 'daily'. This is a bullish signal/indicator.
  12. @dmedin, You may be right but the problem is that Natural Gas may not hit that low as per the 'monthly' and 'weekly' timeframes. It would certainly be a high risk short. Have a look at my other Natural Gas thread called 'Potential Breakout'. I can see your logic but that trade is too high risk and also does not adhere to my trend following trading principles. The price has gone above its 20 DMA on the 'daily' and is heading towards its 50 DMA. Right now a short trade is very tricky with absolute no guarantees that the low you are referring to will be revisited. However, you may be right and for those who are shorter term traders, brave and have a higher risk tolerance/appetite, it may be worth considering.
  13. There is the 'potential' for a breakout in Natural Gas from these price areas.
  14. @dmedin, One of the reasons why Berkshire Hathaway will have around $120 billion of cash not invested in anything is because US stock markets are at an all time high. Valuations are high. Based on fundamentals and value investing principles they use, they most probably cannot justify investing in some of the companies right now. They will wait for the big correction and drop and then start investing that huge cash pile. The hardest thing to do in investing is nothing. I totally understand why value investors would not be investing right now. The problem with not investing is that the cash is not making you a higher return than those other firms which are using growth investing principles. They are investing cash and generating higher returns than value investing funds.
  15. In a raging bull market growth stocks can outperform value stocks by a large margin. I think value investing is ideal for when there has just been a major recession, large correction, etc. This is when value investing can really be effective. This is when growth stocks get hammered the most. Each will have a period of time within a cycle where it is more effective than the other.
  16. The CME Chart is still providing a CME gap of around $11,600 which is a potential indicator that Bitcoin may look to revisit this price.
  17. I would like to share this quote with the IG Community from Mike Novogratz. “...Because people have believed that it’s now a store of value — similar to gold, just gold’s got 3,000 years and $10 trillion, Bitcoin’s got eleven years and $200 billion.”
  18. I would like to share this article which I just came across with the IG Community. I myself am a 'High Risk - Capital Growth' investor. So I follow growth investing principles. I also invest in start ups and these companies are hard to value based on fundamental metrics which investors would use that followed say 'value investing' principles. So when I came across this article I thought it was an excellent one to share. The Warren Buffett Era of Investing is Over. Elon Musk Proved It https://www.ccn.com/the-warren-buffett-era-of-investing-is-over-elon-musk-proved-it/
  19. Sorry I made a right hash of the charts. Please accept my apologies but for some reason I am having problems but hopefully you can link/relate the charts (above) with the text in my original post in this thread.
  20. I was sent this by a trader this morning via Whats App. It is a trading strategy they use for FX trading. Now I myself do not trade FX but I know there are many of you who do, so some of you may be interested in this. Some may feel they can use this for trading Shares, Indices, Bonds, Commodities, Cryptocurrencies, etc. Please read below what I was sent: This strategy uses the 50 and 75 period Linearly Weighted Moving Averages (LWMA) on H1 timeframe. Basically look for a bullish cross (50 crosses above 75) or bearish cross (50 crosses below 75) and look to enter long after a bullish cross or short after a bearish cross. Once the cross has occurred wait for a pullback in price into the LWMAs and then enter the trade once candlestick pattern creates an entry signal. Stop loss and take profits The stop loss should be placed below the local swing low if long and above the local swing high if short. If this is hard to define, an average of 20 pips or 30 pips can be used. Backtesting will show which method works better. For the take profit it can either be placed an equal distance from entry as the stop loss or it can be placed at 3 times this distance. For instance if a 10 pip stop loss is chosen then the take profit would be placed at either 10 pips or 30 pips. A more advanced strategy can combine both of these with two take profit targets - 1 at a distance equal to the stop loss and 1 that is 3 times this distance Here are two examples. 1) Long EURUSD A bullish cross prints when the 50 LWMA (purple line) moves above the 75 LWMA. The trader is now on the hunt for long positions when price pulls back into the LWMAs (point 1 on chart). A long wick indicates buying pressure and a long position can be established with an entry at 1.1214 and a stop loss (SL) below 1.1202. The first take profit (TP) is placed 12 pips above entry at 1.1226 (the 12 pips is calculated by the distance between the entry and stop loss. 1.1214 - 1.1202 = 12 pips). The second take profit is placed 3 times the distance of the stop loss from the market above entry (12 X 3 = 36 pips. Entry at 1.1214 + 36 pips = 1.1250 for TP). 2) Short USDCAD After a bearish cross was formed on the USDCAD (50 moving below 75) the trader awaits a pullback and retest of the LWMAs (point 1 on chart). After a bearish candlestick pattern is formed (bearish engulfing) the trader enters short at 1.3490 with a stop loss above the local high (1.3500.) The first take profit (point 2 on chart) is placed at an equal distance below the market as the stop loss at 1.3480 (in this example 10 pips). The second take profit (point 3 on chart) is placed 3 times the stop loss distance (in this example 30 pips) below the market at 1.3460. Multiple entries This setup could be repeated if price pulls back to the LWMA (see point 4 on chart below). In this case the entry would come at 1.3471 with a stop loss above 1.3486. The first TP would be placed at 1.3456 and the second at 1.3426.
  21. Ripple and Stellar are like sheep following the other major Altcoins. I can see some potential in Ripple from a business to business perspective but I just cannot see the same potential in Stellar right now. Two years ago I saw potential but now there are other Altcoins and tokens which I think are going to challenge Stellar and make it difficult for them.
  22. 19 'green' and 'bullish' days in a row being signalled on the 'Awesome Oscillator'. I would like to see Ether aggressively move towards $400 as this will give a signal/indicator to investors and traders around the world that Ether is ready to follow Bitcoin upwards.
  23. It would not surprise me one bit if what we have witnessed is similar to a mini flash crash where Algo's in Asia and to be fair around the world have caused this sharp drop and then we see a quick sharp rise too! Traders who lose awareness of the weekend probably don't know what the fuss was about on Monday morning, lol. 😀
  24. I was expecting a larger drop in Bitcoin Cash simply because it experienced a larger price move upwards. I think plenty of profit taking is leading to stop losses being triggered which is also leading to new 'short' positions being executed thus amplifying the move downwards. I am not worried as I have seen this so many times that I fully expected this sharp volatility.