Jump to content

TrendFollower

Community Member
  • Content Count

    3,219
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    61

Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Exhaustion of the upward trend? Or will it simply resume after this pause for breath?
  2. I read a very interesting article today. I cannot remember the source which is frustrating but I hope you all understand with the amount of reading I do full stop! 😴 It can be tiring. Anyway made me think about my historical thoughts on Bitcoin becoming the new Digital Gold. The article was stating that Bitcoin will never be able to replace Gold but it may create a special position in becoming the Digital Gold of the Cryptocurrency asset class. There will be so many tokens and cryptocurrencies going forwards that Bitcoin will become the 'Gold Standard' of the Cryptocurrency universe rather than the Fiat currency universe. This notion has legs in my opinion and it has made me seriously question Bitcoin's place as an asset and its value. Its value will be in its stability within the Crypto space in years to come. It is far too volatile at the moment and is not ready to take that mantle but in 5 years time it may well be.
  3. @Caseynotes, I can see your logic behind such a suggestion but not for me. I am long both Gold and Silver and if anything will add on any corrections as long as the trend upwards is in tact. Also I do not want to go against this very strong and bullish trend upwards. I also do not want to be clever and contrarian and try and fight against a trend which is in full flow. Most time traders trade against a trend they will end up with losing trades on balance of probability and odds.
  4. @Caseynotes, They call Copper - Dr Copper. Its price can be a barometer for the health of the economy. It is also rather good at predicting turning points in major global economies.
  5. @elle, yes that is right and the price action supports this stance.
  6. @elle, Would you be kind enough to expand?
  7. @OceansJess, Yes you are right. Gold is doing something and that is going up in price since August 2018. It is making new 'higher lows' and new 'higher highs'. The trend is firmly upwards and it would be a good time to consider going long but you may wish to wait until the next drop/correction for a better entry point but that is your decision to make. You can by all means ask your friend who bought the physical gold and establish what they actually know about Gold? Where do they store it and what are the costs associated with the physical purchase and storage? In terms of how high Gold will go then no one can answer this question and certainly not me. None of us have a crystal ball and none of us can predict the future. In my personal opinion I think it will clear $1350 short term. Medium term it will clear $1355.91 but long term I do not know. It could go as high as it wants depending on the economic events that take shape around the world. From my personal experience big bullish trends love psychological points and round numbers to surpass so longer term $1500.00 could be a target should things get worse around the world. For me it is just about letting my winners run and only exiting once the trend has firmly reversed and not until then.
  8. Wow Gold finished strongly on around $1240 level. I sense it will hit $1250 very quickly.
  9. I would like to see Bitcoin test $6470 level. The one thing to see now is whether the price behaviour of Bitcoin allows it to make new higher lows and new higher highs. Though I am not a fan of Gold (disclaimer - am trading both Gold and Silver at the moment) it shows an excellent example of a trend emerging (still in strong play) creating lovely higher lows and higher highs as it trended upwards. That is what I would like to see in Bitcoin but I still fear there could be one more large correction to come.
  10. @Caseynotes, I agree with your US macro sentiment. It looks like the sideways activity that I assumed is beginning to show signs of possibility. I agree that the US-China trade situation is going to move the US indices one way or the other and we should find out in the coming weeks. I do think that the upward trend is weakening and seems exhausted. It may give one final push before pausing before any critical news that moves it strongly either up or down.
  11. @cryptotrader, The longer term downtrend in Ether and other Cryptocurrencies is still firmly in play and we have all seen such rallies before. For Ether, the 100 and 200 DMA are sloping 'sharply downwards'. The 50 DMA is sloping sideways and the 20 DMA is beginning to slope upwards. For me this may be a short term relief rally but the price action will tell us very soon.
  12. @cryptotrader, You may wish to have a look at this article from the Guardian: UK house prices fall at fastest rate in six years on back of Brexit – Rics https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years-on-back-of-brexit-rics You may also wish to read this articles below too: UK house prices: Brexit wipes 25 per cent off value in wealthiest areas https://inews.co.uk/news/uk-house-prices-brexit-latest-property-market-values/ How a no-deal Brexit will affect house prices, according to property experts https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/no-deal-brexit-how-affect-house-prices-uk-consequences-explained/ UK has not officially even hit a recession yet. UK has not officially concluded Brexit yet. This is just merely based on uncertainty and anticipation of negativity. Also the tax rules on Buy-To-Let has changed meaning what was a very attractive prospect now is not as attractive. I am not suggesting that houses prices will definitely drop. The simple truth is I do not know. However if I wanted to invest in a property investment trust then I would want to get some serious value so that I can maximise my capital growth and for this I would want to see the bottom (from charts) confirmed and an uptrend before investing my hard earned capital into such an investment vehicle for real estate.
  13. @psycho, I am responding to your Bullion Vault question on another thread in my own thread which I created as I do not want to clash with the creators of other threads. I have strong opinions and I am not scared to post them even when I may be wrong. To answer your question, yes I would have conducted some form of due diligence back in 2006 - 2008 period where I invested in Gold via Bullion Vault. From memory I paid charges for them storing it so I never took physical delivery. This was a long time ago so I hope you can appreciate my sketchy memory! They are a big player in this industry and in my opinion at the time reliable and trustworthy. I cannot comment about recent reputation as I have not used them for over 10 years. I am sure they have got bigger and more reputable but you would have to check.
  14. There you go Silver has woke up and now following Gold’s lead. As the margin requirements are higher on Silver than Gold (more or less double) rather than trade both one could trade Gold with increased leverage.
  15. There seems to be a disconnect between Gold and Silver which is rather interesting. Silver does not want to play with Gold today!
  16. What is interesting is that Bitcoin has crossed its 20 and 50 DMA's but they are both sloping sideways which suggests a possible consolidation period. It is on the 100 DMA as we speak and both 100 & 200 DMA's are sloping downwards so it is still firmly in a downtrend. For me there is no confirmation of a trend reversal yet even though it has been rallying hard over the past few days.
  17. When looking at the 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages for Gold then the 20, 50 and 100 are all sloping upwards and the 200 is sloping sideways. This to me suggests a strong trend and if and when the 200 begins sloping upwards along with the others it will be in the midst of a a very strong rally. Silver however is behaving like it is confused whether to behave like an industrial commodity, precious metal or even both. 50 and 100 DMA's are sloping upwards. So too is the 20 DMA but it is beginning to slope slightly sideways. The 200 DMA is sloping downwards. If you look at Silver's longer term timeframe then you can see that it could be argued that it is still in a longer term downtrend with a shorter term bias upwards at the moment. It would need to hit around the $17.00 level for this to change. Gold on the other hand would need to surpass the $1350 level for it to force the 200 DMA to begin changing course.
  18. When looking at all three major US indices it seems the trend is weakening. I felt this before but then the trend just resumed upwards. The main difference on this occasion is that it is very close to the 'critical point juncture' as highlighted by Caseynotes on an earlier post. If there is to be a trend reversal to the downside or even sideways then It seems the Nasdaq 100 is leading the way ahead of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. The US 100 (Nasdaq 100) is still above it 20, 50, 100 & 200 DMA. What is interesting is that the 20 & 50 DMA's are sloping upwards but the 100 & 200 DMA are sloping sideways which to me indicated there are not been a trend reversal which can be evidenced by the price action. At this specific moment in time one could argue that the price behaviour could either continue upwards or decide to go on a sideways journey. If the any of the DMA's begin sloping downwards then for me a short position should be at least considered. At the moment it seems like a sideways move may be materialising with a small upward bias but this could change very shortly.
  19. @ArthurHouse, You may well be correct but let me offer you a counter view. UK REIT is paying 10% to encourage current investors not to sell with Brexit uncertainty and potential drop in house prices looming should the worst happen for the UK economy. It is also trying to encourage potential new investors with this 10% dividend yield. Is this really sustainable? With REIT's they can borrow money to purchase real estate and this is great in a housing 'boom bubble' with low interest rates. When interest rates begin to rise and the housing market begins to cool and decline they can be faced with lots of redemptions, higher financing costs, etc. There is most probably a very important reason why it is trading at such a massive discount! No one knows how long the Brexit Cloud will last net alone when it will pass over. My personal opinion is to wait for the drop in house prices before pulling the trigger on UK real estate. If the worst was to happen and the UK was faced with a serious recession then we could see anywhere from 10% - 30% drop in house prices.
  20. @ArthurHouse, What are you trading at the moment? What trading style do you adopt? I mainly trade Commodities and Cryptocurrencies but will trade more or less any asset based on trends and price action. I use trend following principles but with my own twist and flavour. What about you?
  21. @ArthurHouse, Great question. From an economics perspective the 'Economic Policy Uncertainty Index' is at its highest point since 1985. http://www.policyuncertainty.com I also think this uncertainty in US macros is helping the cause for Gold to appreciate in price. To answer you question, in my personal opinion I think the risk has increased in this trade when considering opening a new 'long' position. I just have a feeling that there is going to be an almighty correction should any bad news be released by the US Government, US companies (earnings results) and the media. However, short term and day trading is the only way in my opinion right now to open new 'long' positions on US indices. The price action does not warrant a 'short' to open now as that would be suicidal. As @Caseynotes suggests and I agree with him that a critical price point is approaching when the market will have to choose a path and the price action will tell us what that path is. Until then there is uncertainty and there will most certainly be volatility. I would not be surprised to see the volatility index spiking during this period.
  22. @Caseynotes, I agree with you on the $2812 level and that it could go one of two ways. I would like to add a 3rd way which is sideways whilst the world works out what is going on with US-China trade, Brexit, Venezuela et al. It was something Elle posted where a sideways trend is possible with an upward slow bias. Some would argue this is the same as upwards but it would be a different type of trend to trade with different timescales.
  23. Bitcoin hit $3935.40 earlier today so not far off the psychological $4000.00 level. The problem is that even if Bitcoin hit $6000 it would still be in a long term downtrend. I think it would need to clear $7000.00 level for any serious rally to materialise and be taken seriously. That is not to say there is not a trading opportunity on the long side for day traders and short term traders. All Cryptocurrencies listed on IG's platform are having a terrific day but we have seen this many times before. That does not necessarily mean that pattern will repeat itself but I would expect a high risk asset like Bitcoin to re-test its low and consolidate its position before any serious move upwards. That said there are no rules to suggest that new history cannot be created on a new asset.
  24. Here comes the range Chris mentioned on his recent IG post.
  25. So Craig Wright is suggesting he is Satoshi according to a SEC filing. Bitcoin is approaching its first month since July 2018 where it could end in positive territory. Is this the end of the bear market in Cryptocurrencies? At this moment in time the long term trend in Cryptocurrencies offered on IG's platform is still downwards. These rallies in the past have been great in 'suckering' people in. I was one of them when some of my indicators were hit for Stellar and Ripple and I made losses on both of those trades. I have not gone long since from a trading perspective though I am still long on Bitcoin from an investment perspective since the $2000 levels which I executed over two years ago. Bitcoin needs to cross $4,000 first and foremost before any meaningful discussion or debate can take place in terms of future price behaviour for this asset. If it does not then there is always the possibility for further downside movement leading to another new low for Bitcoin et al.
×
×