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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Up 100%: Litecoin Price Sets Q1 Performance Record https://www.coindesk.com/up-100-litecoin-price-sets-q1-performance-record This article illustrates nicely how traders can make a relatively nice profit using leverage within reasonably short timescale on Cryptocurrencies.
  2. @Caseynotes, thanks. Very interesting.
  3. It should be an interesting week for Palladium in terms of whether there will be a phase II of any price decline?
  4. The question which presents itself here is whether there will be any upward trend continuation after this pullback? Another question is whether there any fundamentals and supply / demand issues which are supporting this price action? Normally when there are then it makes any trend stronger. When there isn't then the trend has a weaker foundation.
  5. @OSCARDAX, Trend Following tends to have its cycles of use when it comes to Hedge Funds and Institutional investors. No doubt in the future there will be an improved method of trend following which some of them may adopt. Right now it does not seem to be the go to strategy. One must remember they use automated trend following strategies where as we can add a human touch to the trading which machines cannot. I would not say I am a specialist in the Trend Following field. I merely follow Trend Following principles and tweak them to suit my personality and trading style. I am afraid I would not disclose my personal returns over five years on a forum. Also, I do not just use spread betting completely for my trend following strategy. Spread Betting is only a mere small element to my overall investment / trading portfolio. I am an investor first and that forms the majority of my portfolio. Trading is a very small part of it. I do not know if my returns are better or worse than other strategies like buy and hold even discretionary day trading. If someone buys near the lows and sells near the highs then I can see this being a far more profitable strategy than Trend Following. However it is far more difficult to execute than Trend Following. It is also requires far more time, dedicated research and a higher level of fundamental and technical analysis to even have a chance of buying low and selling high. A lot of buy and hold investors do just that, buy and hold. They never sell or don't want to sell and therefore miss out on optimum times to sell to have maximised their profit from their capital investment. Trend Following as its flaws and one of them being that you will incur a greater number of losses due to false trend breakouts, quick, sharp and hard trend reversals and price not behaving according to indicators and conforming to technical analysis, etc. Trend Followers in general are likely to make more losing trades than winning trades. The key element is that the winning trades must make them a larger profit than the losses on their losing trades.
  6. @cryptotrader, In which direction do you think Sugar - New York No.11 is looking to make a move? Upwards or downwards? From the chart it is hard to conclude. Sugar - London No.5 is looking like it may head downwards as this seems to be the current direction though the destination is unknown.
  7. @cryptotrader, Commodities offer excellent trend trading opportunities. Here a substantial breakout has been identified. What happens next in terms of price action will be interesting.
  8. @cryptotrader, Bitcoin is a different animal altogether. For example there could be a strong reason why one could think a specific commodity or asset is going to go either up or down. With Bitcoin it is extremely difficult as there are arguments on both sides for it to go up or down. It would be interesting to hear if anyone has any fundamental reasons why Bitcoin may go up or down or in fact any technical reasons why there is a stonier probability or either an upward or downward move. @cryptotrader, my comment was based on trying to get a discussion going with regards to Bitcoin's price behaviour.
  9. I think we are getting to the stage where either Bitcoin will drop yet again or we are going to see a strong bullish rally after this consolidation period that we are witnessing. I do not know which as it will be dependant on the positive / negative news that is released by the media on Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin. If Bitcoin can break above $4200 then it could indicate a confirmation of the end of the bearish phase. I do still fear that just when you think Bitcoin et all are rallying then a big drop comes and wipes all the smaller traders and investors out. Cryptocurrencies are one of the riskiest asset class out there. In fact I am struggling to find another asset class more riskier right now.
  10. I do wonder if we may witness further positive prices in US indices for the remainder of the year? I do not know the answer to this. To try and offer a more balanced view with a counter argument against the title of this thread I thought I would share the article below. S&P 500 notches best start to a year since 1998, Dow rises more than 200 points on trade optimism https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/29/stock-market-us-china-trade-talks-in-focus-on-wall-street.html
  11. India is a large player in the world Sugar market. It is only second to Brazil in terms of the largest producer in the world. This recent article from Reuters is of particular relevance to this thread. Government to crack down on sugar sales below floor price: document https://in.reuters.com/article/india-sugar/government-to-crack-down-on-sugar-sales-below-floor-price-document-idINKCN1R817C
  12. @JamesIG, Thanks for quick response. Much appreciated. Hopefully I can remember this.
  13. @Caseynotes, WOW, 85% of IG clients are long! I suppose this ties in with 81% of retail clients losing money statistic. To me it seems like Sugar London No.5 may look to test the 3rd January 2019 low of around $326. If it can hold and stay above that price then we may witness a double bottom before any serious upward trend can even materialise. I actually invest in SARASIN FOOD AND AGRICULTURE OPPORTUNITIES fund and have for many years. For someone who wanted to invest in Sugar I can understand investing directly into a Sugar producer, Sugar distributor, Sugar wholesaler, etc. When one trades Sugar (Commodity) via a spread bet or CFD then one is merely betting / speculating on the price movement. The other thing I was thinking was that say if there were only five clients who had an open position on Sugar and four of them were long and one of them were short then though 85% sounds like a lot but it may only be four to five traders which gives a false indication of sentiment. The other thing I was thinking was that I am sure @JamesIG stated that the sentiment figure changes as it is how many positions are opened on that particular day. So 85% went long today. Again this could only be four to five traders as we do not have the data or statistics to see the significance of the sentiment. Very interesting though. For me right now the key price is the 3rd Jan low and if that holds.
  14. So far I must say that Elle has been bang on the money here in terms of how the US indices are playing out.
  15. Bitcoin is showing some bullish price action but for me it must cross the $4200 level at the very least on this attempt. Failure to do so will lead to the price dropping again as witnessed several times already. I will give Bitcoin some credit in that it is still showing some resilience and has certainly not crashed to zero as many predicted. There is still time though! LOL. Does anyone think we have already witnessed the bottom in Bitcoin? If so then why do they think that?
  16. Lean Hogs in March 2019 has seen its price jump considerably. This particular commodity is prone to such price moves. It tends to see swings both on the long and short side.
  17. I wonder if there are any 'hybrid value speculators' on the IG Community who would consider going long on Sugar London No.5 around now? I personally would not until a trend was established and confirmed but for those with a higher risk tolerance and who like to conduct speculative trades then I wonder if it would interest anyone? It seems there are far better trading opportunities out there than this specific commodity. Even if this confirmed a trend there is still no guarantee I would trade it. Especially if there were better trending opportunities than this. Is anyone from the IG Community trading Sugar either long or short?
  18. In my opinion, Gold, will need to surpass $1320 level to continue and resume its uptrend. Any drop below $1286 will present a bearish phase. If Gold does not hold around the $1279 level then I do fear a larger drop. There are lots of variables in the mix. Positive / negative news on US-China trade talks and Brexit will play a role. The US Dollar will play a very important role in terms of whether it strengthens or weakens from here onwards.
  19. @Caseynotes, yes it will be very interesting to see if there will be a second price decline from the current price point. Of course there is no guarantee that it will but with major indices such as the US indices showing positive price action with the subsequent recent decline in Gold and Bonds then it could get very interesting. The US Dollar will be a key participant in this in terms of whether it strengthens or weakens. The longer the uncertainty remains for US-China trade talks and Brexit then the higher the chance precious metals have not to drop considerably but drop they will albeit a smaller correction than anticipated. The speculative capital will allocate to where there are greater probability of higher returns. Also Palladium has seen an immense trend on the long side and fundamentals will come into the mix along with current and real supply and demand issues. Whether this leads to a mean reversion I do not know.
  20. @JamesIG, No problem. Thanks for the heads up. Also just to clarify that I was not looking for specific shares.
  21. Palladium is used in the car industry but as the price has increase substantially then there could be a switch to the cheaper alternative of Platinum. Yes, that is right. Palladium is trading at a higher price than Platinum. A pairs trade idea could be a'Long' Platinum trade and a 'Short' Palladium Trade.
  22. To try and offer a more balanced view, I am including an article from the FT which indirectly suggests my trade idea may not be a good one. Anglo American chief says palladium price surge creates ‘bubble’ https://www.ft.com/content/b638b628-5074-11e9-b401-8d9ef1626294
  23. @DoctorSport, Yes a UK Spread Betting account is a separate account to a UK CFD account and a UK Shares account on IG's platform.
  24. For those who have missed the extremely large, sharp and quick drop in Palladium, the potential short trade presents itself. I am going to highlight this on the 'daily' below: It has surpassed on the downside all three of its 20, 50 and 100 DMA's in one 'deep dive'. It is highly probable to surpass on the downside its 200 DMA very shortly. This is an assumption but the price action will test whether my assumption is correct or not. A lot of my best short trades come from predicting. Yes, I will be wrong on many occasions but I find that forming a prediction based on price action can lead to some very attractive trades. Commodities are rife with speculative capital. This creates some rather large bubbles. Palladium has been on a monumental upward trend. What this sharp move downwards will do in my personal opinion is to begin to trigger stop losses. This will lead to a lot of selling. This will then entice new short trades opening thus putting further downward pressure on the price. This action will result in an amplified move downwards which will be brutal, quick and sharp. Now if I am wrong then I am wrong. Though, I have seen this many times in many other Commodities. Palladium will be volatile on the way downwards and it will create some sharp moves upwards along the way taking out stop losses that are tight. Warning: This is an extremely high risk 'short' trade so please conduct your own research, analysis and risk assessment of the potential trade before even considering it.
  25. What we are seeing is the US Dollar strengthening and this seems to clearly have impacted both negatively Gold and Silver. Both Gold and Silver (daily charts) are weakening.
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