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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. I sense the trend is weakening though still rather bullish to the upside when looking at the 'daily' charts for the major US indices. @Kodiak has highlighted a break below the trend channels which may lead to a possible trend reversal to the downside. My gut instinct tells me that there has to be a major move downwards but I cannot open the short position until the price behaviour supports this. Even then markets can still move against you like my earlier trade on the S&P 500 where I clearly shorted in a downtrend and it met several strong indicators but the trade still went against me as my timing was out. I would like to get in early on any shorting opportunity for the US indices so my eyes are firmly fixed on the price action, trend strength, volume and moving averages. Let us see what the coming trading week brings.
  2. @thehillwalker, Also if you are a complete newbie then may I suggest starting at £0.50p per point in the US Tech until you have seriously tested your trading strategy on a live account with real money.
  3. @thehillwalker, This link may assist you. https://www.ig.com/uk/learn-to-trade/overnight-funding
  4. @JamesIG, Thank you for your response and further detailed explanation which I think was both very useful and interesting. What is the trading background and success of these experts? How many of their trades are profitable? How much profit / loss do they make per annum in percentage terms as they may not want to disclose revenue figures? Do they actually currently trade the markets so they understand the 'audience' they are catering too?
  5. How will the current Brexit scenario and risks associated with the March 2019 deadline affect the markets? How will the current delay in US-China trade talks and also the March 2019 deadline before the US puts up tariffs affect the markets? These are two key questions facing both investors and traders at the moment. Usually the markets move prior to the 'big event' in both advance and anticipation.
  6. To me it at times seems that IG are 'reactive' rather than 'proactive' with matters such as these.
  7. One would expect Silver to correct more than Gold as that is the nature of their relationship. What will be interesting is how low Gold and Silver go before it continues its move upwards? I cannot see (though I could be wrong) any trend reversal occurring in both Gold and Silver until two main things are resolved one way or another. One is Brexit and the other is US-China trade talks. Both are in the air and both have unknown outcomes. This will support Gold and Silver prices from seeing their upward trends reverse in my personal opinion. Let us see if the price behaviour of both supports my opinion or it rejects it.
  8. Markets are generally seeing a wave of 'red' and it is around 5:00 am. Whether this is the push for a trend reversal who knows but I sense volatility as based on recent price action any positive news could see US indices rally again. The Nasdaq 100 for example is trading below its 200 DMA but I would like to see it breach its 100, 50 and 20 DMA then we really are talking about a serious trend reversal. This would mean the price would have to go below the $6552 level. It is trading at the $6855 level. So we are looking at another 300 points of downward price action. Bonds are all mostly blue at the moment but I would want to see upward movement in precious metals alongside any downside in US indices. We are at a critical juncture where the price action will determine if the recent rally in US indices can be sustained and continued or whether it was just a monstrous relief rally.
  9. @Mr-Yellow, Wow, a year. That is terrible. I would not be able to trade without analysing the charts. Have you complained via IG's Customer Services? Maybe there is a fix that IG could advise you on? Have you rang them? If so what was their response?
  10. @JamesIG & @EdFuk, One must ask the question how effective IG's trading seminars really are? 81% of retail investors are losing money. It may simply be a case that the seminars are very good but IG's clients are not watching them. If that is the case then why not? How does one define and quantify a trading expert? For me a trading expert must be someone who has vast amounts of experience in trading and one would like to think that has been extremely profitable as otherwise how can they be of any use to IG's clients? Apparently they will share their knowledge, experience and insight. The real metric is how many trades have they completed in the last 12 months and how many were profitable and how many were not. Are they performing better than the 81% of retail customers that are losing money on IG's platform?
  11. US-China talks delay could provide bearish for US indices. That is certainly how they have reacted to the news today but once the dust settles and the news is digested and it is more clear what this exactly means then the US indices will react accordingly in terms of price behaviour.
  12. I think as long as Gold can stay above the psychological $1300 price level then it will be extremely positive and bullish for Gold going forwards. US-China delay in trade talks may support Gold's next move upwards.
  13. Guest Paul, On IG you can trade Gold via Spread Betting like I do or CFD's. You can also trade Gold ETF's and I think but not sure possibly Gold ETC's. Then there are Gold mining shares as well. You can use all these for medium term but you must trade what is correct for you. ETF Securities offer ETC's but there is counterparty risk with such products so beware.
  14. @pkaz, I do not have any aim for annual returns. I try and get the highest annual returns I can per annum after taking my losses and charges (costs) into account. I do make losses as that is the nature of 'trend following'. I could end up catching a false breakout or there may be a sharp and unexpected trend reversal's. These are variables which make 'trend following' difficult. It is not as easy as it sounds! If it was then all traders following 'trend following' would always be successful and wealthy. This is not the case. It requires a lot of hard work and discipline. The most effective and profitable trend followers will identify the right trends to trade. There are trends everywhere in all asset classes. One must identify the most profitable trend to trade at the right time. It could be Lumber. It could be Gold. It maybe an FX pair or it could be a Cryptocurrency. I have given this example before but if you have 10 trades and 3 of them are profitable and 7 of them are not then it seems that you have a 30% win percentage and a 70% losing percentage. Now if your 30% winners are more profitable than the 70% losers then overall you have been profitable. If we reverse this example and 70% of your trades were profitable and 30% were losing trades. It is possible that your losses on the 30% losing trades were so big (as you did not cut your losses quickly) that they were bigger than the 70% winning trades as you exited too early and did not let your winners run. Or even that you did not identify the most strongest and profitable trends to trade. Do not worry about targets for annual returns. Ensure you have a strategy that enables you to identify the trends to trade.
  15. @JamesIG, Thanks for the reminder. Will have a look this evening as will not be able to see the live broadcast. I assume it will be available this evening for all to see?
  16. @ProjengENG, Yes there could well be implications for both EM and FM in relation to quantitative tightening. One would expect a decrease in investment in those markets. When US interest rates rise can the US markets withstand the inevitable? I think in today's world of globalisation EM's are part of a diversified portfolio. They could see their allocation in portfolio's decline but I can only see investment increasing into EM's going forwards in the long term with a few setbacks along the way. This would be normal and expected. Even if EM's and FM's decline or there is a large downside then what an investment opportunity! There would be compelling reasons for investing when near a bottom for 'value investing' reasons. If this was to happen then I would like to think I am greedy enough to invest when others are panicking.
  17. @theshidoshi, Yes, I can understand you trying to reduce your fees and that is a valid point. However, your main reason for choosing a certain platform / broker should be that it offers assets that you wish to invest/trade in, the execution on the platform is good, offers good level of customer service, fees are reasonable for the value you are getting, etc.
  18. The Set-Up For Gold Looks Attractive In 2019 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4237795-set-gold-looks-attractive-2019
  19. Lumber is looking to resume it upward trajectory and is setting itself up nicely from the charts for its next move upwards.
  20. Gold and Silver have both started off rather well (5:00 am - UK time). The price action will tell us if this is an upward resumption of the trend.
  21. Nothing spectacular on Gold and Silver today.
  22. Just as I think the trend is weakening the trend resumes its upward projection. As I have said that upward trends can last a lot longer than one thinks.
  23. To me the trend upwards in US indices seems to be weakening. This is normally a sign to look out for before either there is a trend reversal to the downside or a resumption of the trade upwards and it is merely pausing for a breath! At this juncture I do not know the answer. Trading in Asia will be quiet due to Chinese New Year. I must admin I am waiting for the shorting opportunity in US indices but the market at times does not always deliver what is expected. The smart trade after the big drop was 'long' but at the time of the drop the media were reporting 'recession' and global meltdown, etc. Now these things may still happen going forwards but it is about timing. Also one must learn to ignore the media and it's 'market noise' and focus on what the price action is telling us. I accept it is sometimes harder than one thinks as the media both on TV, news channels, newspapers and online is a powerful force which can influence behaviour.
  24. Gold and Silver offering the pullback (necessary medicine in a healthy bull market) to investors and traders alike to enter this journey. Using 'Oscillators' can assist in establishing an effective entry point. Trading in Asia will be subdued due to Chinese New Year.
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