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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. The price seems to have gone up since I last posted a chart on this thread with the current price.. From a value perspective one might deduce from the chart and data that it is consolidating at a potential bottom with little downside. I think the key would be to keep monitoring the price for any significant breakout and identification of a bullish upward trend. If one can enter a trade with such price activity then there may be a potentially lucrative trade should the price connect with any strong fundamentals. I would want to see a breakout from the current trading range first before I started monitoring this myself. @Caseynotes your posts seem to remind me just to take a quick peek at this so thanks for that reminder. If you spot a breakout before me then please do let me know via this thread. The margin requirements seem ok for a spread bet on this including a dose of leverage should anything materialise with the price behaviour.
  2. @JamesIG, I would like to see more videos and interviews in relation to 'Robotics, Automation and Artificial Intelligence' from an investment perspective. I would also like to see more videos and interviews in relation to 'Internet of Things (IoT), Cyber Security, Biometrics, Blockchain and Tokenisation' from an investment perspective. In relation to above more specifically with regards to investment funds, OEICS, Unit Trusts, Investment Trusts, ETF's, etc.
  3. @bryan9911, I agree with @Caseynotes. I have made this error back in the past and it was down to this very point. I set the price level reflecting the 'bid' price which is a personal preference and works for me but different traders will have different preferences.
  4. Apart from the Italian BTP and Italian BTS all Bonds available on IG's platform are in positive (blue) territory.
  5. This hit $171 today and is looking rather bullish. I stated something similar on the Litecoin thread which is to be aware of any strong trend reversal with sharp and quick downward moves which lasts a few days. This has been witnessed several times over several Cryptocurrencies. One must be mentally prepared for this. Of course it may not happen but this is a Cryptocurrency after all!
  6. Litecoin is getting rather interesting. One thing for Cryptocurrency traders who are thinking of trading it on the long side is to be prepared mentally for any sharp reversal and strong downward move. This has happened over several Cryptocurrencies in the past few years. Long term trends generally are still downwards.
  7. The disconnect between New York and London Sugar prices continues. It will be interesting to see if New York is taking the lead and whether London Sugar prices follow.
  8. @Caseynotes, You make a very interesting point in your third paragraph about supply and demand. I totally agree and you have hit the nail on the head. If the two are balanced then the price will not rise or drop significantly. It is the distortion between supply and demand and market inefficiencies that create the significant price moves in Commodities. Now Rogers may be right on this occasion and that Sugar is at the bottom of the market cycle. I simply do not know. What I do know is that I am monitoring the price action for Sugar so should any breakout occur or uptrend develop then I will share on this thread. There may well be an opportunity that happens rarely on Sugar so one must start by observing the price (for as long as it takes) and take it from there. I think time will tell if Rogers' buy recommendation makes good sense. I shall keep an open mind and let the price narrative show me the answer.
  9. @Caseynotes, Jim Rogers is an extremely successful investor and he is very wealthy. There is no doubt about that. That is what I advocate. Not sure about which specific posts you are referring to but it really does not matter. Yes, he has on many occasions explained his investment rationale of buying low and selling high. He is able to execute this rather well as he has an obscene amount of wealth and access to data and people that a normal investor would simply not have. It may seem easy to see why Jim Rogers considers this to be at or near the cycle bottom but he has thought this 10 years ago and felt like this over the subsequent years after that until this moment. This demonstrates that even he cannot accurately pick a time period of when the cycle has bottomed for Sugar. If he cannot do it then a normal investor on the street is certainly not going to be able to do it. I certainly cannot but my trading philosophy does not require me to do so. I just need to make sure that should a breakout and an upward or downward trend emerge that I am wise enough to trade it. If your premise of more affluent people use more of everything is used in investing specifically in Sugar then why has the Sugar price not been going up and up over the past few years? There is a higher middle class in India which is booming and expanding beyond recognition. The wealthy are getting more wealthier. Yes there is a sugar glut in Asia but is that the only reason? Could it be that demand is declining? Now I am being ****'s advocate. Sugar may well see the beginning of a major bull run in the next few weeks, months or years. If that happens then I will try and trade it. Nothing is a given and the market does not always react based on logic. I understand your point about more affluent people needing more of everything but this simply cannot be used to make an investment decision on Sugar as the fundamentals and dynamics have changed. The affluent want to live a more healthier lifestyle. They want to reduce their sugar intake. Diabetes is on the up not just in the UK but around the world. Sugar consumption has changed from historical trends to current trends. It is more about Matcha, fresh cold pressed juices, etc. You post an interesting statistic on Chinese poverty from 1990 and 2015 from the World Bank. I have not done this but what would be an interesting exercise if anyone had the time is to see how the price of Sugar behaved during this period of Chinese poverty declining. There has been a significant decline in Chinese poverty and did that in any way influence the price of Sugar due to supply and demand fundamentals?
  10. From an economics perspective, when bond yields decline, the bond prices will rise and vice versa. In my experience, when there is economic uncertainty, political instability and risk increasing then capital will shift into bonds. This will in my opinion lead to higher bond prices and bond yields declining. This is what the bond market has been experiencing and what we have all been witnessing. The article below is trying to alert its readers. One by One, Global Bond Markets Are Flashing the Same Warning https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-24/aussie-10-year-bond-yield-drops-below-1-8-to-new-record-low
  11. Looking at the current price action for Sugar - London No.5 and Sugar - New York No.11 there seems to be a slight disconnect.
  12. @Caseynotes, Jim Rogers is a billionaire. He has deeper pockets than the majority of investors. His investments and capital can move prices both up if he buys and down if he sells. I agree that Sugar will be worth something but will it be worth what it was historically? I do not know the answer. Also I would rather invest in Sugar or trade it when an uptrend starts but I totally appreciate value investors wanting to buy at the cheapest and lowest price possible so they will want to get in before the uptrend starts. It is not something I would do but I appreciate those who may consider such a strategy. I would rather wait for an uptrend before either investing or trading it. I think there is a movement for providing people coming out of poverty healthy food and provide them with a healthy diet rather than sugar. It would not be responsible for allowing a country to allow those coming out of poverty to only afford sugar based food and drink. This will take time and will prove extremely difficult but Governments are aware of the need to provide a healthy diet to those coming out of poverty as otherwise they will end up in NHS, benefits and too sick to work which is not good for any economy with aspirations to be prosperous. Jim Rogers has made bad calls and bad investments in the past but he has made humongous profits and made the right calls too. He has such deep pockets that he can afford to take a big loss or sit on a losing position for years and just wait. Most investors invest or trade to make a profit and they simply cannot afford to sit on losses for years upon years. He can. Below is an article which is relevant to this specific thread that was available around six months ago: Jim Rogers' Favorite Commodity Now https://dailywealth.com/articles/jim-rogers-favorite-commodity-now/ Now have a look at what Jim Rogers was stating in the International Business Times back in 2010 so NINE years ago! Sugar is white gold: Jim Rogers https://www.ibtimes.com/sugar-white-gold-jim-rogers-411827 @Caseynotes, have a look at what happened to the price of Sugar after the article was published by a billionaire and extremely successful investor in a credible and reputable publication like the International Business Times. Nine years is a long time and only a billionaire like Jim Rogers can hold a losing position or even a winning position where profits are declining each year over such a period of time. The smart trade would have been to short Sugar since that article in 2010. Now he is back singing the same tune and have a look at what is happening to the price of Sugar since his IG interview. I agree it could be an interesting speculative trade but this would be akin to gambling and hoping which is not a good investment or trading strategy. Now look at this article and in particular 2. Three ETFs To Play Jim Rogers’ Advice https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/07/15/three-etfs-to-play-jim-rogers-advice.aspx I have copied and pasted below too in case the link does not work. "2. Sugar Another investment idea Rogers recently threw out is sugar, a commodity that has seen its price tumble dramatically so far in 2010. Despite this large drop (or perhaps because of it), Rogers is extremely bullish on the "soft" commodity. "Not many things are 75 percent cheaper that 36 years ago, but that's true of sugar," Rogers said. For investors seeking exposure to sugar, the iPath Dow Jones-UBS Sugar ETN (NYSE: SGG) is perhaps the best option. Unlike SLV and SIVR, SGG doesn’t offer exposure to spot prices, instead tracking the performance of a futures-based strategy. The note tracks the Dow Jones-UBS Sugar Subindex Total Return, which consists of futures contracts in sugar. The fund charges an expense ratio of 0.75% and is down more than 35% so far in 2010, by far the worst performers in the Commodity ETFdb Category. If you believe Jim Rogers, now could be a good time to buy SGG low [see Sugar ETF: Due For A Comeback?]." So look what was happening to Sugar before 2010 when he was making the same arguments! His notion of something is cheap relative to history so it must be worth investing can be an excellent strategy but on this occasion it has simply not proved to be the case. Now for all I know Sugar may end up after this post going on a phenomenal multi year bull run. If that happens then fine. I would like to think that I am wise enough to trade Sugar on the 'long' side once a trend is confirmed and use leverage to make big returns. If not then I am happy just to monitor the price action for now.
  13. I see @JohnDFX from IG has posted a blog entry in Market News today which is relevant to this thread. Post-Fed; yield curve inversion; another reset in the Brexit timeline - DailyFX Key Themes
  14. @JohnDFX, My thread Bonds and Gilts highlighted the price behaviour in the Bond market around three months ago.
  15. @Caseynotes, Yes you are right. Jim Rogers explained that Sugar is one of those rare commodities that is around 80% down from its all time high. So I can understand his investment sentiment. When I conducted some research shortly after the IG interview I realised that he was singing the sweet tune of Sugar ten years ago. He may even have his own Sugar company somewhere in the world! Therefore he needs the Sugar price to go up. Jokes aside and on a more serious note there is a supply glut in Asia. Some of the Asian countries are trying to push the Sugar prices upwards. What we do not know is if there is further to fall for Sugar? One may infer that the majority of the downside is priced in but we simply cannot be sure. Sugar has more alternatives now than it ever did. In India for example they can put Gur in Indian Tea. I have even been to Indian restaurants in the UK which have started to offer this. Also health concerns and healthy living is meaning that the Sugar intake amongst the western world and specifically the US is declining. I would imagine the potential is there for the same pattern to emerge in the UK and EU. Americans Keep Getting Smarter About Sugar https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-10-11/americans-cut-sugar-intake-in-decline-worth-celebrating Even from a value investing perspective there needs to be a fundamental driver that one can see for a significant increase in Sugar prices to make it a compelling argument to invest in right now and not in six months, next year or even once the glut has substantially reduced. How Much Sugar Are We Eating? https://www.sugar.org/diet/intake/ Declining Sugar Consumption in Australia https://www.srasanz.org/sras/news-media-faq/sras-articles/declining-sugar-consumption-australia/ The UK Government has introduced the 'Sugar Tax' and this in theory should encourage the manufacturers to reduce the amount of sugar in foods and drinks. So if the trends in the future are likely to be continuation of the decline in Sugar consumption and the supply glut is only reduced more slowly then by investing now does not mean that the price of Sugar will not continue to go downwards. It also does not necessarily mean that it will be a good investment over say 5 or 10 years. Buying low would only be a good strategy if the price did not continue going downwards. Even if there is the potential of Sugar being a good investment then surely it would be worth buying in an uptrend albeit at the start of such a trend (from a value perspective) than now? Otherwise it is merely a buy low and hope it goes up strategy.
  16. @JamesIG, Prior to the interview I was not paying much attention to Sugar as the price action did not meet my personal trading crieteria. I only started taking an interest after watching the Jim Rogers interview with IG. I assume IG arranged and instigated this? I was not even aware of the interview until it had taken place so yes you are right I did not ask any questions. Is it an unreasonable thought to think that IG could have asked such a question? Are you suggesting that an IG interviewer will only ask questions submitted by IG clients? One of the reasons why I have started this thread is to monitor the price action of a specific asset that Jim Rogers talked up in the interview. I then want to see how the price behaviour compares with Jim Rogers’ conviction. Online media can be very dangerous. ‘Market Noise’. Do you recall the Cryptocurrency Interviews?
  17. @JamesIG, Thanks. So if an asset is available in the U.K. to spread bet then it will be available in Australia using IG Australia to spread bet. Is that what you mean?
  18. I wish IG had asked Jim Rogers in the interview why the Sugar prices were so low? It would have been very interesting to see what explanation he would have given.
  19. There is a possibility that the Bond markets are overreacting. There is also a small chance that speculative capital has arrived more recently too. One must remember that Bond prices have not just reacted upwards overnight and they have been creeping up gradually and for a while. The media always reports once they have noticed the pattern / trend but not necessarily when traders have idenfitied the pattern / trend. However, just think if there was a recession in the US then what would the US Government do? Lowering interest rates would be one of the tools available to them. This notion is now being talked about and may be causing the price behaviour within the Bond markets.
  20. @h7, No problems. @JamesIG, this is another example of where the country from where the trader is based in would come in rather handy. Are you able to provide any updates on progress?
  21. @Sameer, what if your profit target is not met? Do you use trailing stop losses to automate the function of closing your positions when in profit? I assume you set a stop loss so that if the position turns against you then you automatically exit? How do you determine which trades to place when you start your day? The profit or loss will be shown on your positions section on the left hand side of the screen.
  22. There is a lot of talk about the yield curves and inverted yield curves on other threads and IG themselves have released material on this very matter. Below is an article which will explain it nicely. The US bond yield curve has inverted. Here's what it means https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/25/the-us-bond-yield-curve-has-inverted-heres-what-it-means.html For some of you who are not familiar with Bonds, below will help to explain Bond Yield and Returns. Bond Yield and Return http://www.finra.org/investors/bond-yield-and-return
  23. Gold on the other hand is showing far more resilience long term as the monthly, weekly and daily charts indicate. It is also still trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA and none of the curves on the 'daily' are sloping downwards. This is a positive indicator. My thread Bonds and Gilts is actually nicely linked to this thread. Bonds and Gold seem to be moving upwards together at the moment. A lot of investors either ignore bonds in their investment portfolios or try to allocate capital after the majority of capital has arrived meaning they can be left with capital losses as a result.
  24. The current price for Orange Juice is $12904 at the time of writing this post. It is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 DMA with the 20 and 50 DMA curves beginning to slope upwards which can be perceived as a bullish indicator. Of course this does not guarantee any continued upward movement but can be used in any 'decision making basket' along with other indicators and information to help make an informed trading decision.
  25. Lumber has failed to either hit or cross that psychological $40000 level. There may be potential support at its 100 DMA. However, it has breached its 20 DMA and 50 DMA and is approaching its 100 DMA. If it went below its 100 DMA then that would present a bearish signal to me. If it can hold above it then it may be a period of consolidation before slowly building back upwards. My personal opinion is that one must have a longer time horizon for Lumber as it is a more 'defensive' Commodity that can go down less when Commodities as a whole are going down. It also can do rather well when equities as a whole are doing well as 'house building' is a priority for several major countries with the US being one of them. For those that are interested then they may wish to follow the price action of Lumber.
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