Jump to content

TrendFollower

Community Member
  • Content Count

    3,599
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    64

Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. This is a very interesting article for some of you who are interested in this from an investment perspective. The Three Types of Artificial Intelligence: Understanding AI https://interestingengineering.com/the-three-types-of-artificial-intelligence-understanding-ai You only have to look at the performance some of the investment funds have achieved over the past couple of years to show what a growing area this is.
  2. I remember the times when the Bitcoin price saw a floor around the $100 area. I also remember the times when the Bitcoin price saw a floor around the $1000 area. I think what we are seeing now is Bitcoin building a floor around the $10k price area. Those traders who have experienced Bitcoin's price behaviour over the many years will be relaxed and calm. They know what is likely to come next though I accept these probabilities can change at any given time based on positive / negative sentiment influenced heavily by the media. When I look at the Bitcoin chart 'daily' it indicates to me that Bitcoin is bullish and is trading as if it was in a bull market. What we may be witnessing is a healthy strong consolidation period where accumulation will take place.
  3. Some of you will be very aware of Breven Howard. Well they are launching a $1bn Crypto Hedge Fund. Why? Because they think Bitcoin et all is going to fail and go to zero. Let us not forget all the wealthy and intelligent people that invest in such Hedge Funds, they will think this too. Humour and joking aside, this puts down a serious marker when it comes to investing Cryptocurrencies as an asset class. Billionaire Investor Eyes $1 Billion Crypto Hedge Fund https://www.coindesk.com/billionaire-investor-eyes-1-billion-crypto-hedge-fund
  4. It seems for now a price level around the $9.4k seem to be providing some support. If it was not for the halving event I would have made an assumption that the price is more likely to fall than rise based on the current 'daily' but with the having event I think the chances of prices rising increase from here. Of course the price action will tell us the answer to this very shortly.
  5. @Ben1, Thanks for the post. Are you able to articulate any point you are trying to make for the wider IG Community?
  6. The news flow is certainly flowing but one must be careful of the share price being pumped up and pushed down. This is the recent RNS that was released by the company to the markets: Argo Blockchain PLC New hardware delivers faster-than-expected ROI https://www.investegate.co.uk/argo-blockchain-plc--arb-/rns/new-hardware-delivers-faster-than-expected-roi/201908280700043294K/
  7. 😂 You never know. Who would have thought that he would have become the governor of B of E?
  8. Just because large institutional traders are doing it does not mean smaller or novice traders are doing it. Actually I am sure all traders are not doing it. Just looking on the IG Community allows me to make that inference. Yes, I do not doubt that large institutional traders are placing stop losses using support and resistance. Knowing what large institutional traders are doing can give the smaller retail trader an advantage is it can use this information effectively.
  9. @dmedin, Just think if all traders decided to apply stops using such a methodology then it would be so easy for the trading sharks and large institutions to spot this. It would be so easy for the brokers that these traders are using to spot this.
  10. @tehka, If you look at the number of times it is being reported there are US-China trade tensions. Then Trump will tell the media that he thinks there will be a deal soon. Then both countries amend their tariffs. Then they have YET another meeting, followed by Trump again stating a deal will be done, months later no deal. This is market manipulation of the highest order. Either they agree and do a deal or just tell the media they cannot agree and there is no deal. End of. To keep the world guessing for months on end is all part of the plan as both countries know that announcing no deal would cause havoc amongst world markets so they are controlling the markets indirectly by playing this game. Eventually there will be a deal! LOL. 😀
  11. Stop Loss Discussion - Continued from Above: @BoJK and @dmedin There is a notion that one believes that setting tighter stop losses is reducing your risk and setting wider stop losses is increasing your risk. I beg to differ as the notion in which one views this is critically important. It adds context to the arguments why one could consider setting wider stop losses over tighter stop losses. For day trading I get it. However if you are a longer term trader, there are advantages in setting wider stop losses over tighter stop losses. Tighter stop losses are for a specific trading strategies just like wider stop losses are for specific trading strategies. There is no right or wrong. What is important is selecting the tigher or wider option with the correct trading strategy. This is something which a lot of traders overlook. There is no one size fits all stop loss strategy. Anyone who suggests one should set tighter stop losses is not understanding the bigger picture of how different traders adopt different trading methodologies. There are many times in the past (many years ago) when I would place a trade, call the direction of the trend correctly, the trade met all my signals and indicators but I would still end up losing on the trade. The reason for me specifically was that my stop loss was too tight. Volatility is the biggest enemy when it comes to setting effective stop losses. There are times when markets you are trading can move unexpectedly or sharply the wrong way before going back to where it was and continuing in the trend direction. When I am trading the 'Strongest Trending Assets' then I am in the trade for weeks and months. I want to bigger points/profits and I want to use leverage to maximise the amount of profit I make. What I cannot afford is to call the direction right, my signals to be hit but to lose the trade simply because my stop loss was too tight. I want my stop loss to kick in when it is clear that my trade idea / assumption / prediction was wrong. That is fine. I have no problem with that. I do not want to stay in a trade where I am clearly wrong but until I am proven to be wrong then I want to stay in that trade. Daily price fluctuations will not allow me to stay in a trade if my stop losses are too tight. To put this in context, I trade using 'daily' and above. I will look at 'weekly' and 'monthly'. There are times when I will go down to the '4 hours' but I am more a longer timeframe trader so having wider stop losses suits my trading style. I accept that shorter timeframe traders may require or prefer tighter stop losses which is fine. There is no right or wrong.
  12. @BoJK, I am responding to you on my own thread as it is not appropriate to start a discussion on this subject in someone else's thread on a different subject matter. I never set tight stop losses as I am a longer term trend trader. I do use wider stop losses in line with my personal risk tolerance. Setting tight stop losses means you have to be right more times than not. This makes it extremely difficult to confidently be on the winning side and making profits unless you have mastered the art of trading. I need give myself the best possible chance and this means setting wider stop losses. I am not suggesting anyone else does this as I accept it goes against the conventional wisdom of cutting your losses quickly and short (trend following principles) but I have found over the years by tweaking this to suit my own personality, skills and capital budget that I have been more successful and profitable when adopting wider stop losses. This is just my own personal experience so it may not be the case for many traders as it depends on which asset you are trading, your position sizing, risk management strategy, use of leverage, etc. As I tend to trade volatile assets then setting stop losses too tight are suicidal for me. For me setting wider stop losses gives you more room to deal with market fluctuations, short time price volatility and all the market shenanigans that go with trading a particular asset. I do not generally day trade though I have dabbled in the past here and there depending on the opportunities presented. Generally though I am not a day trader so I want to stay in the position as long as possible. From my experience one of the reasons why traders lose is because they overtrade. Another reason is because their stop losses are just too tight and if you combine both of these then it is a recipe for disaster in my personal opinion. Yes I follow trend following principles but that does not mean I agree with all of the theory and have to blindly follow all of the principles. I have tweaked, amended, adjusted over the years to create a trading style and strategy which suits me. That is the most important thing. Find trading styles and strategies that suit you personally and your personal circumstances in terms of time, wealth and ability.
  13. @dmedin, This is nothing new. Media has been reporting one thing or another since for many years now (long time). This is what makes trading interesting and difficult as no one knows what piece of news will be released when. If you ignore all the news and put that to one side and just look at the price action then you may find it easier. This way you will only be making trading decisions based on price action rather than news 'market noise' influencing your decisions.
  14. @Edwoods100, For the UK the minimum transfer amount into your IG account is £250.00 like @andysinclairhas stated in the post above. In terms of minimum trade sizes then it really depends on the specific assets you want to trade, the leverage if any you want to apply and if you intend to hold overnight. If not then you will pay indirect charges through the spreads available. If you do then there will be overnight charges depending on which asset you decide to hold overnight.
  15. @Razzarino, I use the Apple iMac and the charts seem to be loading fine for me. I am using the new UK Spread Betting platform. I use Safari as well and I just checked a few moments ago before replying and the charts are loading up fine for me.
  16. So what do we know? We know Italy are in a recession. We are being told that Germany and Japan are teetering on a potential recession. Growth is stalling in Japan. The US-China trade war is having a negative impact on Germany. The UK could fall into a recession after Brexit potentially sometime in 2020. Japan is a having its own trade war with South Korea. France is hardly fairing any better. However when trading one must put this aside and look at the current price action and trade based on current price trending rather than future possibilities as they may or may not occur depending on the decisions of Central Governments around the world.
  17. The US having 'Reserve Currency' status gives it an unfair advantage over all others nations across the globe. It is only a matter of time before the other 'larger' nations come up with ideas that means more of them have a control over the world's reserve currency. So for example you could have the top five economies around the world merge to create a combined reserve currency which is backed and supported by the central banks of the five largest economies around the world. I cannot see the world ever going back to a gold standard. The US has far too many advantages over other nations and gives it far too much power in the world so it is only a matter of years / decades before this changes. What it changes to is the question and I cannot believe the other nations will simply let this continue for ever as they grow their economies and become stronger.
  18. Bitcoin is still trading above its 100 and 200 DMA's. It is below its 20 and 50 DMA's. The 'bulls' and 'bears' are having a battle right now and one of them will emerge the winner. I think September 2019 will tell us more in which direction Bitcoin is going to trend in for the rest of 2019.
  19. Litecoin traders and Crypto analysts are predicting $100 again for Litecoin looking at the 1hr charts. I am not convinced but if there is a resurgence in 'altcoins' based on positive Bitcoin price action then it is possible. The 'daily' for Litecoin looks awful. Those shorting will be profiting from the current price action for Litecoin. For me based on the 'daily' the $65 price level is absolute key for Litecoin as otherwise it could be fatal for this alt coin should the price drop below it. No one long Litecoin should be holding below this point though the smart traders will have already sold any long positions and taken profits.
  20. Bitcoin Cash seems to have strong support around the $300 level. The trading range is very narrow and I think depending on the direction of Bitcoin will have a big part of play in the future direction of Bitcoin Cash. For me Bitcoin Cash could go either right now and I have no idea which way it will but I think Bitcoin's price direction will play a big part in Bitcoin Cash's future price direction.
  21. Bitcoin has recently been trading in a narrowing range. This is visible by following the price action and looking at the charts. I am referring to the 'daily' but others may be using different time frames. To me there seems a lack of conviction between the 'Bulls' and the 'Bears'. Every time the price is dropping below $10k and into the $9k zone it is going back up. Every time it is approaching $11k it is going back down. Volume has declined during August 2019. Now this could be just the lull before the storm with summer holiday time in play. Time will tell. Now based on 'Odds and Probability' I think this will have to change some time soon possibly starting in September 2019. I think either the 'Bears' will win and the price will go towards $14k or it will drop and go below $9k and towards around the $7.5k level. For shorter term traders one must look at which way the price breaks out. I know traders will be anticipating one or the other but if it can wait for signals / indicators confirming which way the price is likely to move towards and wait for those confirmation signals before acting.
  22. @Caseynotes, Yes you make a valid point. Going short too easily will blow your account. One of the problems with following trend following principles like I do is that the trend does not continue in the direction of the trade, false trend potential, sharp trend reversal, etc. These are all risks that a trader who follows trend following principles faces. Trend following has its flaws which does at times makes shorting tricky hence why I only try to trade the strongest trending assets. Even then trends can reverse when least expected and the trade can move against you. If you set your stop losses too tight then you may be stopped out unnecessarily and if you stop them too wide then you may necessarily take a bigger loss than you needed to. Trading is difficult which ever strategy one adopts. There is no 'free lunch' as they say. One has to work hard, put the effort in, have strict discipline in following rules and take emotions out of trading decisions. I accept it is easier said than done but this is where a lot of traders fail in my opinion. Trading during a recessionary period is going to be difficult and tricky as traders will be 'short' specific markets. It is all about entry and exit rules that will help determine the level of success.
  23. @Caseynotes, One must remember that on average it can take around 18 months from when the treasury yield curve flips or inverts to the start of a recession. People talk about Dr. Copper but another commodity that it is worth keeping an eye on is Lumber. When housing construction begins to drop then that can be one of many indicators to have a look at. Others are inflation, interest rate direction, wage growth, unemployment, etc. There are many well documents indicators which signal a potential recession is around the corner. From a trading perspective one should not worry as long as one is comfortable shorting. Those who are not may struggle to consistently make enough profits during a recessionary period.
  24. @Caseynotes, Yes that is right. I have seen some calling the recession for the past two to three years! They have been calling it as if it is around the corner. Then when it does not come they move the goal posts via obscure technical analysis. When one challenges it, one is deemed negative or a naysayer. Corrections happen large and small. Investors sell investments to take profits. This has been happening since the markets began. Prices go up and down. Prices are bullish and bearish. Of course trading sentiment plays a big part but for me following the price action and letting the price action lead you to a trading decision is key. Trying to wait for the price action to follow your view and then changing the narrative by giving technical reasoning when it does not follow your view in my opinion will lead to missing out on trading opportunities. For a sound trader, recessions, should not be feared but welcomed. If one understands how prices react during recessions then one can prepare their trading strategy for this outcome but for when it happens and not before.
  25. UK Central Bank Chief Sees Digital Currency Displacing US Dollar as Global Reserve https://www.coindesk.com/bank-of-england-governor-calls-for-digital-currency-replacement-to-the-dollar This is an interesting article. Countries around the world are seriously questioning the USD's position as the world's reserve currency. It may not be Bitcoin or any Cryptocurrency first that replaces the USD but if there is any digital currency which replaces the USD then it will certainly be an interesting stepping stone towards the path of such a possibility in the years to come. I am talking of in the next twenty years or so. I do not expect anything imminently or even in the next five to ten years.
×
×