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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. The Dow Jones (Wall Street) has seen a sharper decline than the S&P 500 (US 500) but I wonder if the Dow is leading the way on this drop with the S&P and Nasdaq due to follow? I have no doubt that the longer term trend is still firmly in tact and what we will see is either around a 20% drop or possibly a more sharper and stronger drop such as the one in 2019 before upward service resumes. So a 'shorting opportunity' is in play as we speak and I hope some of you have initiated positions and taken advantage. I think this window will not be open for too long as if it is only a small drop/correction before upward continuation then it could catch those who are short out. I think the US Government will do everything they can to ensure US stock markets continue moving upwards after this correction which is why for those with a longer term (investing view) could see this latest larger dip as an opportunity to top up their investment portfolios. The key question for me is whether this will be a smaller drop or larger drop? That is the unknown but I will be keeping a close eye on the Bond prices and Gold prices as this may provide a clue in the forward path that US and major indices around the world take.
  2. There is a new term being used called 'Sugarflation'. It is being reported that Pakistan is currently in a food inflation crisis. Now my personal experience tells me that there will be some form of price pullback in Sugar. This will potentially be a short term shorting opportunity is the uptrend is going to continue. Apparently Sugar buyers are nervous because the assumed Indian export surge did not happen. This is why I am anticipating a downward move imminently. As you can see from the chart above there are signs of trend exhaustion / trend weakness. If the prices were not to decline then this would be in my opinion a very bullish indicator and could result in a potential price spike quickly.
  3. @Bopperz, At the moment London No.5 seems to be showing signs of trend weakness. Now it could be that the trend has exhausted and we are about to see a turn or it could just be a mere dip and short consolidation before further upside continues. 400 for me needs to be defended. Any major breach below could see some serious selling pressure. However, the one thing I have learnt in my experience is that upward trends can last a lot longer than one thinks.
  4. Your trading plan should explain how you identify the assets you are going to trade and what the selection criteria is. This must be supported by reasoned arguments rather than just it is a liquid market or it is the most popular market, etc. If around 70% of traders lose money then trading the same assets as they trade means nothing unless you have a far superior trading strategy and system than them. If you can trade differently to those 70% such as trading the strongest trending assets then it can tilt the odds/probability in your favour. Of course this is my personal view but it is something to think about.
  5. Copper and Coffee have been great shorts recently. I have identified them as the 'Strongest Trending Commodities' at the moment. They are higher risk trades as such sharp declines are pretty quick and a reverse can come very quickly so monitoring the price action is crucial. Having an exit plan via a stop loss is also very important so that you know what your exit will be even before you enter the trade.
  6. The 'Aroon' indicator is suggesting a potential trend change as you can see below. The 'Aroon' up line is above the 'Aroon' down line so therefore the overall trend is showing as upwards at this moment in time. When you look back at when Bitcoin was trending upwards and then compare the 'Aroon' up and down lines then you will see this more clearly and hopefully it makes more sense.
  7. The question a lot of people are asking me is whether Bitcoin will hit $10k? I think is more likely to hit $10k than not based on price action, momentum, trend strength, halving event, interest, etc. Of course the price behaviour will confirm shortly but I am expecting Bitcoin to touch $10k intraday very soon.
  8. It is trying to break out beyond 400 but it is struggling. If you look at the Coffee chart and even Copper chart then you will appreciate what could be coming next with Sugar price action!
  9. If you look at the moving averages on the 'daily' then you will see that the 200 DMA is sloping downwards which is line with the longer term downtrend still in play. The 20 DMA is sloping upwards showing the the more recent price action is bullish. The 50 and 100 DMA's are looking like they want to slope upwards and are heading in that direction. When they eventually do then the key will be that 200 DMA curve. Once that begins to slope upwards, GAME ON. It will be a confirmation to me that Bitcoin's longer term downtrend is switching towards an uptrend. This signal/indicator will occur after the event as it will be 'time lagging' indicator.
  10. Bitcoin touched $9444.90 overnight. $10k is going to be a tough nut to crack but if and when it does I expect Bitcoin to bulldozer through totally unexpectedly and suddenly catching a lot of traders out. If you look at the 'daily' then Bitcoin since last Friday as been in bullish mood. It is arriving at a critical juncture in my opinion where it will have to decide whether it is going to break through and continue in an uptrend towards more recent highs or keep the bearish downtrend in tact and go south.
  11. Silver on the 'daily' is looking very bearish. It has gone below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA's on the 'daily' and I fear it has its 200 DMA in target.
  12. Some news released by RNS by Coinsilium today that may be of interest to some of you. Coinsilium Group Limited IOV Labs and Coinsilium MoU and Strategic Investment Agreement https://www.investegate.co.uk/coinsilium-group-limited--coin-/eqs/iov-labs-and-coinsilium-mou-and-strategic-investment-agreement/20200128070014EGYNM/ If the Cryptocurrency bull market is confirmed and prices continue rising (I don't know for sure they will) then I fully expect Coinsilium to rally (albeit a lot later on) upwards. If Crypto prices decline then I fear there is little hope for any meaningful share price appreciation for this company.
  13. @Chazza69, It seems like you entry/exit needs a bit of work. Of course you cannot win on every trade so accepting losses is crucial but it is whether we can learn from our losses which is important. Once you create a set of rules defined by some substance it may increase your chances of success. You may be interested in having a look at my Trading Plan and Trend Following threads. They may offer you some snippets here and there to help you. My mantra is to trade 'Strongest Trending Assets' at any given time. The question you have to ask is whether Gold was the 'Strongest Trending Asset' at the point in which you entered the trade? How did you make the decision to trade at 84? What signals/indicators did you use in your decision making process? Even when you use signals/indicators your trade can still fail but over a period of time if you have a sound trading strategy and robust trading system then it can help to tilt the odds in your favour and increase your probability of partaking in successful/profitable trades.
  14. It looks like the CME Gaps have been potentially filled hence this current rise upwards. It is touching its 200 DMA on the 'daily' so as long as Bitcoin can stay above $8.9k then it will be a very bullish signal/indicator.
  15. Bitcoin is looking to break out and move towards $10k but this is Bitcoin and it never does things as expected. I have no doubt that at some point in the near future Bitcoin is going to hit $10k. The market will make sure it hits $10k but the way it will do it is going to be so sudden and quick that a lot of traders will not even realise that Bitcoin touched the price point of $10k.
  16. There is little if any revenues coming into the company. The question one must ask is how this company is going to survive without an injection of capital if its shares are not in demand and new investors are not coming on board? Broker change could mean desperation for what is around the corner! https://www.investegate.co.uk/vela-technologies--vela-/rns/appointment-of-broker/202001270700109325A/
  17. Its never a good sign when the likes of Mike Edwards decide to leave when apparently the company is on the cusp of greatness! Hmmmmm. Something smells here to me. Argo Blockchain PLC Board Appointment and New Machine Installs https://www.investegate.co.uk/argo-blockchain-plc--arb-/rns/board-appointment-and-new-machine-installs/202001270700099334A/
  18. We may be witnessing another opportunity here. The 'short' trade may be a small time opportunity through a small window as such moves are normally quick and sharp followed by potentially an upward resumption of the longer term trend. Of course I do not know that for sure and only the price action can confirm that.
  19. Luxury giant Kering certifies its watches with Bitcoin https://decrypt.co/16801/luxury-giant-kering-certifies-its-watches-with-bitcoin Certain models of Swiss watches are exceptional investment time pieces. They can generate returns and appreciate in price whilst you can wear it and enjoy it.
  20. @SPITFIRE898, We shall find out tomorrow and during the rest of the week. If Gold hits $1600 then it could lead to significant buying pressure in the 'Yellow Metal'.
  21. I think trading perspective is important. We could see a 20% fall/correction in the S&P 500 but it still end up higher in December 2020 than it was at the start of January 2020. This could still be possible with say two 20% corrections in the year. Equally we could see a gradual decline in the S&P 500 over the next few months. Just as equally we could see a rise and rally in the S&P 500 in the build up towards the US elections. No trader has a crystal ball and no trader can predict the future. They can merely guess or make an assumption based on data/facts/evidence presented to them. This is why for me it makes sense to trade based on price action and trends regardless of what your personal opinions and emotions are suggesting. So for example I may personally think that equities are due to fall significantly but the price action and trend is showing that the market is likely to move upwards. I think if a trader can avoid making trading decisions based on personal thoughts/emotions and solely based on price action and trends then it can help them to create some trading rules for entry and exit (ignoring market noise). Risk On will lead to US Indices going up and Risk Off will lead to US Indices going down.
  22. @Chazza69, My thoughts on Gold are in this thread and in the posts above.
  23. This is a very interesting article to those of you who may be interested in this space. Blockchain: is it ready for mainstream application? https://www.supplychaindigital.com/technology/blockchain-it-ready-mainstream-application As some of you will know I have been an advocate of Blockchain Technology for a while now and I think one must ignore the benefits/opportunities/potential at its peril. Below highlights Dubai's leadership in attracting Blockchain businesses to its shores. Smart Dubai working to develop use of Blockchain https://gulfnews.com/business/smart-dubai-working-to-develop-use-of-blockchain-1.69278176 I think this coming decade in the 20's we are going to see Blockchain like an asset class similar to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Automation/Robotics and when we do the capital is going to shift from other asset classes into this space. I did not think over 15 years ago that I today would be heavily investing in Artificial Intelligence, Automation, Robotics, etc. but I am. I think a lot of investors in this space are going to be investing in Blockchain with the same conviction and investment potential thoughts.
  24. The following may be of interest to some of you. Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) made the following comment at the World Economic Forum (WEF): Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, also spoke on the matter:
  25. Stellar and Ripple have pretty similar charts when you look at the 'daily'. This is understandable. Apparently Ripple could IPO in the next few years which is being reported as a game changer. I think it would be to some degree as Ripple is a company and is 'centralised' rather than 'decentralised' which is what makes it different and unique to other major Cryptocurrencies.