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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @JamesIG, Can this be moved into the Cryptocurrency / Blockchain section? I think more people will be interested who visit that specific forum than where it is now.
  2. When you look at both the Gold and Silver 'daily' charts then both from a long term perspective are not really showing strong trending performance. Yes, short term both Gold and Silver have shown us bouts of strong price action. There is not doubt about that but if you look at the longer term picture then Gold and Silver is not as impressive as one may think. I have put a 'red line' where I think Gold may struggle to stay above unless there are some serious geopolitical drivers and 'Risk On' comes off the table. The price action for Bonds and Gilts will be a good barometer of this as the Gold prices should in theory support the Bond prices. Now look at the Silver 'daily' chart below. It is even less impressive than Gold from a longer term perspective. I have used a 'Red Line' to highlight the price trajectory during the last couple of years. Now this could be reversed going forwards where both Gold and Silver spike to such levels that they change the direction of the 'Red Lines' I have used on both the Gold and Silver charts. At this moment the trend over a longer term period seems down looking at the chart above. The question one must ask is if the world is in such bad shape and there are problems all around the world both politically and economically then why has the price of Gold and Silver not shot up and created strong upward longer term trends? I do not invest in Gold and Silver from a long term investment perspective as I simply believe there are better investments that can give me a far greater return than Gold and Silver over the same time period. I will occasionally trade Gold and Silver based on price action and strength of trend but that is it. The margin requirements for Gold and Silver are lower than other Commodities so there are times when it is trending strongly then from a risk/reward basis it makes sense. If you go through all the Commodities that IG offer on its platform then Gold and Silver are not the strongest trending assets within the Commodity Asset class over the past few years.
  3. Impressive performance from Bitcoin overnight. It hit $9405 which is pretty impressive price action. What is the price behaviour of Bitcoin telling us? It is demonstrating a strong bullish bias to the upside with large drops / corrections along the way. Of course there will be profit taking when the profits in a short time of space are so significant. It is no different to any other asset in that sense.
  4. Call it 'Gut Instincts' or a feeling based on monitoring price behaviour over the past few years constantly looking for trends and patterns, but I felt that Bitcoin would have a stellar weekend and it just hit $8840.60. It really is trying to surpass that $9000 mark so that it can attempt the $10k mark. I feel 'FOMO' could happen as those who felt that they would buy back in at lower prices may get wrong footed. This then creates a further frenzy in Bitcoin prices. Slighter longer term Bitcoin has to surpass $11.5k as otherwise technically it is still in a longer term downtrend. The weekend trading on Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies is an interesting concept. We could see a BUBBLE round two. But do I care if Bitcoin is a bubble or not? Not really. What is important is trading the price action. Now whether you day trade Bitcoin or hold positions longer it does not matter. Even if you mix the two strategies then it can be an effective 'Cocktail Trading Recipe'. You can have a longer term position on Bitcoin but also day trade thus consistently taking profits. It is all about trading the price action in front of us and trading the potential opportunity in front of us. Acronym by @TrendFollower I would class Bitcoin as one of the 'Strongest Trending Assets' (STA).
  5. Ether will face some resistance at around the $270 level but if it can clear it then I see it having a real go for the psychological $300 price point. Looking at the 'daily' if it clears $300 then $350 will not take too long it should have a relative nice path towards that level.
  6. The weekend is here and what do you know, Bitcoin, has hit $8746.80. When Bitcoin is in a bullish phase upwards, the weekend price behaviour simply cannot be ignored. Those who close their trades on Friday and re open on Monday would miss out on a lot of potential gains. It is up over 3% on Saturday morning at the time of writing this post.
  7. @winson, These things happen. I accept they are not ideal but have you contacted IG Customer Services? Your comment in relation to China is not appropriate and therefore I have had to report the post.
  8. Bond prices are continuing to climb and the German Bund on the 'daily' is looking strong. Gold is also moving upwards right now and has been generally in an upward trend since August 2018 but the German Bund began its move before Gold. Bonds are a very interesting and important asset class to follow even if you do not trade them. Even if you trade Equities or Commodities then Bonds can give you a feeling of the risk appetite and mindset in the markets.
  9. Lumber is up yet another 1000 points + today. It hit one of James Bond's favourite price points of $39007! Lumber is showing a very strong breakout and as a result the price has gone above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA as seen in the chart below which I have attached. Now if the US Federal Reserve announce via the media that it will not be lowering US interest rates, this move could reverse and Lumber could head back downwards. However there is pressure for the US to increase its homebuilding programme and whilst US indices are travelling upwards then it should remain positive for Lumber. should US indices take a tumble which is very possible then Lumber could be joining them. It is worth keeping an eye on the price of Bonds and Gold to assess this scenario.
  10. @Naketgh, Are you basically asking if IG will trade your capital for you? I am not sure about other countries but in the UK they offer the following: IG Smart Portfolios https://www.ig.com/uk/investments/smart-portfolios I hope that answers your question.
  11. @nit2wynit, Why not try trading as if it were a real account and apply the same stop loss strategy as you would in a live account? Otherwise the information you are obtaining about your trading via the demo account will not reflect your trading via the live account information. Ideally, what you want to do is apply your trading strategy as you would in the live account on the demo account and really test its robustness. If there are any issues then you have the opportunity to fine tune it before you go live. Just out of interest, what are the strongest trending shares at the moment? Of these which are the most liquid shares at the moment? Of these which have the highest volatility? Once you get the answer to these questions then may identify some very interesting shares to day trade for you. 👍
  12. @FFS_Daytrader, I am not suggesting Bitcoin could not go down to $5900 or even slightly lower. That is not off the cards at this moment in time. Anyone trading Cryptocurrencies will appreciate the extreme volatility. It is slightly reducing from a few years ago but it is still far more than other asset classes. You state what you think will happen in the coming months with your 5900 prediction. What do you think will happen in the next 12 months when Facebook launched its crypto?
  13. @FFS_Daytrader, I don’t at this moment in time though depending on how things play out my view could change. I think the Facebook Coin will be a positive driver for Bitcoin and actually further endorse the asset class. This could lead Bitcoin to higher prices with the halving event due next year as well.
  14. @FFS_Daytrader, Excellent. Agree with your point. I know some Crypto traders that only trade from Friday 9:00 pm UK time to Monday 7:00 am U.K. time. There are some excellent scalping opportunities over the weekend so we’ll spotted.
  15. Bitcoin is hovering around the $8.3k level. It has hit $8350.60 today so it will be interesting to see where this finishes by the time US markets close. Also remember it is the weekend coming up so Bitcoin can make big moves either direction. 😉
  16. @nit2wynit, I agree with your point about a strong stomach for losses. I would also add in your list a strong capital balance to start with in your trading account. With this you may allocate between 1% - 5% on any one trade depending on your risk management strategy. I know some traders who do not allocate any more than around 1% of their total trading capital on any one trade. As your trading capital grows then this 1% grows too. You state you left two trades open accidently. I know its only a demo but you should try and eliminate such events. I do not use the demo account but I appreciate you wanting to know others win/loss ratio using the demo account. If anyone shares a superior win/loss ratio that what you have then you may be able to learn and fine tune your day trading strategy to improve performance. Every little bit helps. It is very nice of you to share your live trading with us. I am sure it is very appreciated by some of the IG Community. 👍
  17. @Eze, Are who also trading Bitcoins? Are you asking this question to everyone on the IG Community? If you want to trade Bitcoin's based on its price movement then you can do so via IG's platform. You will find it under the Cryptocurrency section. They also offer Ether, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Stellar, NEO and EOS.
  18. @nit2wynit, I think because you have decided that you must day trade, you may enter trades that are found out of desperation rather than meeting your personal requirements. You may be forced into a trade by the simple need to trade at least once per day if not more or the simple need to make a certain amount of money per day. Such targets generally will lead to failure in my opinion. If you only trade when certain signals / indicators are met based on your personal requirements and strategy and only trade those then it will be interesting to see if your performance improves as a result. I think it should increase your chances of success. If you held on to a winning trade until the trend reverses and say this was for 4 days or 4 weeks. Would the profit be greater than day trading every day in that same period?
  19. @Dr_FX, First of all it is the trader who is at fault, not IG. They merely offer the platform and services to allow their clients to Spread Bet. I use IG's UK Spread Betting account. I feel like a parrot repeating the same message but to achieve consistent profits the only way you can do it is to trade the strongest trending assets and trade them in the direction of the trend and not against it. It is about holding on to your winners and if you do that then your position may be for days, weeks or months but the initial spread will not even be an issue. If it is the strongest trending asset then the daily charges will not be an issue. These factors only become an issue if you day trade or hold a position for only a few days or so. Overtrading and trying to be too clever is what gets you into trouble. Being able to conduct Technical Analysis does not mean you are going to be a successful and profitable trader. Being able to study and understand complex Technical Analysis does not mean you are going to be a successful and profitable trader. You need capital. You need to be able to take losses and accept them and embrace them. I remember sharing a live trade which was a losing trade on IG and the belittling I got was ridiculous. It was like OMG TrendFollower made a loss. He is gambling and he does not know what he is doing, etc. It is the trading strategy and the trading system that can effectively deliver the strategy that is important. Of course this is not possible without a trading plan. There are far too many traders on IG Community that simply do not have a trading plan, trading strategy and a trading system to deliver and execute effectively all this. That is where one of the problem lies. For them it is borderline gambling. Traders will make losses. Those who do not are lying. By trading less frequently and holding on to you winning trades for longer gives you the best chance to succeed when using Spread Betting. That is what my experience tells me. You can still lose if you trading a strong trending asset when you get in late and most of the move has come and gone. So then it is all about identifying the trends as early as possible. Trend Identification becomes key.
  20. @Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG, Yes 100% is pretty steep. @PandaFace If you look at the 1 hour chart then the 20 DMA has turned and its MA curve is sloping downwards. There is going to be profit taking, stop losses being triggered and new shorts opening and when this happens I can only see one hell of a shorting opportunity.
  21. Bitcoin Cash seems to have popped and is leading the race (blue day) today. It is up 7.5% at the time of writing this post and the price has hit $423.90. Whether this move has legs all the way up to $450 time will tell but it could go towards $430 level then it may find it difficult to pierce through $440 and $450. If it does then there could be a monster move coming with its dear friend Litecoin leading the way and taking other alt coins with it prior to its August halving event.
  22. Lumber up another 1158 points at the time of writing this post just after 5:00 pm UK time. It hit $37763 today. It seems until the US interest rate situation is clarified then it may provide some support for Lumber with potential upside. When Lumber was in its bull run then if you staked the minimum £1 per point with around £3k margin then you could get £1k in a day. Of course not all days as some days you could lose big as well but if you were trading in the direction of the overall trend then you would win such big amounts per day more times than now. Now if you increased your leverage then you can begin to see how much you could earn in profits per day. What we do not know is how much legs if any this recent lumber move has. I have a feeling it is based on the potential of the US reducing interest rates but this is not a given and so this trade becomes very high risk in an illiquid market.
  23. @PandaFace, No I have never had any of their products. Apparently they are sold in certain Tesco's across the UK but I cannot say I have seen them unless they are labeled under a different brand. This will certainly be offered to the pits. I just cannot see any other conclusion based on my experience. The only thing that would stop that from happening is if it delivered mind blowing growth from a revenue and profit perspective. That is not impossible but that is what it would take in my opinion. This share is a good example of trading the price action on the 'Long' side. Even if you think it is overvalued based on extreme hype and the valuation is not justified on any level / metric then when one trades on price action, it simply does not matter. One puts emotion and personal views to one side and just trades the trend based on price action. Very similar mindset to trading Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies! LOL 😁 This is an example of a strong trending share. These are the opportunities that an aggressive trader must trade to maximise profits at the end of the year. If one uses leverage effectively then the returns and profits cannot be sniffed at. This is what counts. First of all, don't lose your capital or keep losses at an absolute minimum. Secondly, identify the strongest trending assets and this would be one of them and trade them. Even if you make several losses along the way your profits (letting your big winners run and not exiting early) should allow your end of year performance to annihilate someone who only trades liquid and 'normal' trades, trades frequently and based on superior and complex technical analysis. The answer to the riddle is not how complex the technical analysis you conduct is. The answer to the riddle of how to be a successful and profitable trader consistently year and after year is about identifying and trading the strongest trending assets. If you do not identify them then you simply cannot trade them. Even if you identify them but your emotions and personal opinions / views get in the way then again you cannot trade them. We are all guilty of letting emotions and our ego's of we know best get in the way. Those who can overcome this better than others may not be the most intelligence or be able to apply complex technical analysis but they will certainly have an excellent chance of outperforming those traders with the profits they make and that is what is important. Everything else is 'noise'. Some will call it gambling if you trade the likes of Bitcoin, Beyond Meat or Palladium but if sound risk management is applied to a trading strategy and you can use a trading system to deliver it then that is what counts at the end of the day. Beyond Meat hit $14593 today! Look where it started its journey (IPO) and in a short space of time what returns it has delivered. 450% +. Now add leverage and you will get my point on this.
  24. @Nyj, No worries. When you look at my thread for XBT Provider One then you will see that they are Exchange Traded Notes (ETN's) and are very similar to ETF's. In fact Sweden is way ahead of the US when it comes to Bitcoin ETF's and this has been around for a few years now whilst the US still cannot get their house in order. In fact Crypto is rather popular in Scandinavian countries. A while back I read a report stating that US citizens were investing in this Swedish Bitcoin ETN's as it was the closest to a Bitcoin ETF barring the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. However at the time it was trading at a huge premium to the NAV so was not too attractive.
  25. @JamesIG and @Ludwik Chodzko-Zajko IG, Both of you may be interested in this. It seems more than half of Beyond Meat shared offered were sold short because apparently bears believed the share was extremely overvalued. Instead what has happened is the demand of the stock has been so high due to hype that short sellers were forced to buy back their shares at higher prices than they sold them. This created even more demand and as a result we are seeing over 460% rise which is immense. I personally think the valuation is not absurd and just does not make any sense. This is a bubble if ever I have seen one even when comparing to Bitcoin! I mean Beyond Meat is now valued around over $8 billion and this is only after generating around $40m in revenue. They are losing money every year and are not making any profits. I mean it shares trade at more than fifty times revenue which to me is absurd. If this company does not significantly increase its turnover and begin to make meaningful profits to justify its valuation then I can only see a blood bath coming!
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