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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Live Cattle has gone below its 20 DMA. It is approaching a possible breach downwards of its 50 DMA. There is a potentially rewarding shorting opportunity presenting itself. Of course there is the risk of this continuing upwards so one must be mindful of this just being a healthy correction. From my own personal experience, Commodities, attract a lot of speculative capital which drive up prices and amplify trends upwards. Once this is exhausted then the downward move is both quick and sharp. These can be very profitable opportunities so anyone interested may want to follow the price action of Live Cattle.
  2. Around the $340 level seems to be offering potentially some support to Sugar London No.5. I have been monitoring the price action since the Jim Rodgers interview with IG and so far there has been very little reason to either invest in this commodity or even trade it from a trend following perspective. There is volatility to swing trade it or even day trade / very short term trade it. Any break below the $336 level would be cause for concern for any one interested in investing in this commodity or even trade it on the long side. I shall continue following the price action and update on this thread accordingly but at this moment in time I personally will not be investing in Sugar on the long side. Nor will I be trading it either long/short based on current price activity and my own trading philosophy.
  3. Accountancy has been touted as one of the areas which could benefit from the use of Blockchain technology. The article below supports this point though I am sure there will be articles that do not. How will blockchain and automation change accountancy forever? https://www.accountancyage.com/2019/03/25/how-will-blockchain-and-automation-change-accountancy-forever/ The key is to see real life applications for Blockchain. There are a lot of exciting projects in this area and the potential is there. The challenge is to see which of these real life projects can deliver some meaningful execution. Which can apply itself to real life problems and most of all solve them or deal with the issues more effectively.
  4. The S&P 500 price has breached its 20 DMA on the downside. We have seen this a few times but it has continued upwards. I would like to see it breach its 50 DMA on the downside before seriously considering any 'short' trade. Yes it would mean missing out on some returns if the price does not go upwards from here. Right now the price could just as easily continue moving upwards should there be any positive news released by the media.
  5. If one looks at the 'Monthly', 'Weekly' and 'Daily' charts for Silver then one may realise that it is still in a long term downtrend. Silver's longer term price action is much weaker than Gold's.
  6. IG have posted this today on the main screen under News and Analysis: Trader's thoughts - The world economy’s health is looking worse than previously imagined A return to a negative-yield world The consequences of the bad PMI numbers were immediate and explicit. The yield on 10 Year German Bunds raced to its ignominious and long-awaited milestone, cracking into negative yield for the first time since mid-2016. If there is any evidence necessary that the global economy is at the end of a cycle, it’s that ****-bit of information. The rush into government bonds on Friday was ubiquitous, however, and has created some worrying price action. Conspicuously, the rush into US Treasuries has put the yield US 10 Year Treasuries to just above the current US OCR at 2.40%. Furthermore, Japanese Bond Yields have travelled further into negative territory itself, with the 10 Year JGB yielding -0.08%. Rate cuts being priced-in across the globe The falling yield environment is, of course, being driven by a pricing-in interest rate cuts in developed economies the world-over. Though directly caught in the fray on this occasion, as far as the disappointing data goes, the materialising prospecting of weak global demand has seen traders boost their bets on a US rate cut in the next 12 months. The implied probability of a cut from the US Federal Reserve by January next year leapt to almost 80%. The price action has led to a disturbing event in rates markets: the spread between 3 Year and 10 Year Treasuries has fallen to 0 basis points, inverting the yield curve between those two maturities.
  7. This article from the Financial Times is rather relevant to this specific thread. Global investors make record shift into bonds https://www.ft.com/content/57c94330-02b0-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1 The increase in capital being allocated to Bonds has led to the price action that we have already seen. Those in early will have benefited. The point I was alluding to in the previous post is that those who enter later will not necessarily obtain the gains that those in the past have received.
  8. If major equity markets take a tumble then Bonds should perform strongly in this period. It would not be unreasonable to think that over a 2 to 5 year period that Bonds outperform Equities. Of course this may not happen but it would be wise for investors to allocate even a small percentage of their portfolio to Bonds. Some of the valuations seem very high to me, especially those in the US, and it is very unclear if those companies will be able to achieve the financial results necessary to keep such high valuations. Also for investors this strategy could be aligned to their risk management strategy within their investment portfolios. What I fear is that a lot of investors may only turn to Bonds once any major corrections in equities is firmly in place. By then the smart money has already been allocated to Bonds and the latter investors end up paying a high price for investing. They are also left till the end as the smart money will leave before them meaning they are likely to make a loss. There will be some that may not agree with my sentiment but for those (they could be right and I could be wrong) I suggest just keeping an eye on the price action of Bonds. See what Bonds have been doing in terms of price behaviour over the last couple of years, what they are doing now and what they are likely to do going forwards.
  9. @h7, I am from the UK. May I ask which country you are from? Is it the US? I could not find Waitr Holdings Inc on IG's UK Spread Betting platform. Is it is a small cap, micro cap or nano cap? I just did a quick search and the articles I was reading is suggesting that this is a stock which is about to blow up. Now I do not know if that is true but are you looking to also short this?
  10. @h7, I have just replied to your other post. You could considering shorting this via IG's UK Spread Betting platform if it is available on the platform.
  11. @h7, You may wish to consider 'shorting' this via IG's UK Spread Betting platform. I have just checked and it appears on IG's UK Spread Betting platform. I just had a look at the chart and it seems that the big downward move has already occurred. It may well continue moving downwards but just be careful that when you short this that the trade does not go against you pretty quickly.
  12. I want to share an article that shares my views and supports it. That does not mean anyone should believe it blindly or even think it is very credible. Everyone can judge and assess the credibility for themselves. S&P 500 could fall 40% as yield curve inverts, says analyst of one of 2018’s best hedge-fund returns https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-could-fall-40-as-yield-curve-inverts-says-analyst-of-one-of-2018s-best-hedge-fund-returns-2019-03-22 For anyone who found this article interesting then I would recommend my Bonds and Gilts thread here on the IG Community. One can also link my Potential Long Gold Trade thread and see how they are all connected in a 'Marvel type' Universe where there are 'Easter Eggs' being presented to us in the way of market (economic) news, politics, price action, etc.
  13. For those who are interested in Blockchain start ups, the article below may be of interest. Blockchain startups to watch https://www.techworld.com/picture-gallery/startups/blockchain-startups-watch-3669058/
  14. TD Securities have stated the following: “Price action in gold continues to lend strength to our view that expected data deterioration will help spark a gold rally as interest rates continue to fall in the context of a slowing global economy,” analysts at TD Securities wrote in a note." It seems to me that there is 'safe haven' demand which is being seen and this is understandable. Also I believe it was Reuters that have reported that the US Federal Reserve think the US economic growth was slowing and this will trickle into the rest of the world. There is a saying that: "When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold". From an economic perspective, lower interest rates will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold which is non-yielding and it will weigh on the dollar.
  15. Bitcoin Cash seems to be leading the chasing pack behind the leader Litecoin in relation to the current and most recent price action in Cryptocurrencies that IG offers on its platform. I include the chart (daily) below for Bitcoin Cash: Bitcoin Cash is trading above its 20, 50 and 100 DMA's. However the interesting point is that they seem to be changing to a bias towards the curves sloping upwards which is a bullish indicator for a short term trending move upwards. Note: It may literally only be a short term move. Also the indicator is based on historical price action so it does not guarantee the future price action.
  16. I am not suggesting this article is entirely credible so I accept there may be credibility issues. Also when these types of articles come out a trend reversal normally follows in Cryptocurrencies! LOL. Litecoin [LTC] Price Analysis: Bullish movement imminent as token exhibits positive price fluctuation https://ambcrypto.com/litecoin-ltc-price-analysis-bullish-movement-imminent-as-token-exhibits-positive-price-fluctuation/
  17. This is the current chart for the German Bund. The above is the 'daily' chart. Now have a look at the weekly chart below. Now I am going to show you the monthly chart below. Now you can begin to see from an investment perspective the capital growth available on Bonds. Bonds are traditionally and historically a defensive asset. There will be plenty of equity funds and investment trusts that outperform Bonds over the same period of time. However, we are entering times of uncertainty and therefore wise to have even a small allocation of Bonds in your investment portfolio. Now this could be anywhere as low as 1% or higher depending on your risk profile and tolerance. Bonds are also good to day trade on those days where there is an increase in market uncertainty, economic instability and basically an increase in panic!
  18. A lot of investors and traders ignore what the Bond prices are doing. There comes a point in a 'economic' or 'market' cycle where allocation to Bonds can not only reduce the risk to your portfolio but also provide steady returns when other assets are declining in value. At the time of writing this post - The US Ultra Treasury Bond is up 150 points. This is attractive from a day trading or short term trading perspective. It also becomes interesting from an investment perspective. I have come across a lot of traders who ignore the price action on Bonds because it is not 'sexy' enough for them. I have also come across investors who decide to allocate capital to Bonds when it is too late and they are enter at the 'end of the party'. Not only do they then lose part of their capital allocated to Bonds but are the 'dancing by themselves' on the dance floor! The German Buxl is up 360 points at the time of writing. Obviously the news that came out of Germany recently affected the DAX and one can clearly see a flight for capital into Bonds. So Bonds can be a very interesting market for both investors and traders during times of economic uncertainty and economic instability. Is anyone else investing or trading in the Bonds market on the IG Community?
  19. I remember Elle posting a while back a chart which inferred that there could be some sideways movement with a tint upwards. This seems to be playing out that way in relation to the Dow Jones.
  20. Both Bonds and Gold are up this morning. It seems they are going for a 'walk' together. Gold seems to be making new higher highs and new higher lows on this recent leg upwards. With a potential delay in Brexit causing continued uncertainty or no deal Brexit potentially causing disruption it offers Gold a temporary platform to rise.
  21. I just came across this which I found very interesting. Trend Following Strategies: Examining The Whipsaw https://seekingalpha.com/article/4249240-trend-following-strategies-examining-whipsaw This articles explains rather well the difficulties faced by trend followers: Commentary: Is short the new long? https://www.pionline.com/article/20190320/ONLINE/190329999/commentary-is-short-the-new-long The following article offers a differing view and presents a more balanced view on trend following. One of Wall Street’s Most Popular Trading Strategies Is Now Failing https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-01/one-of-wall-street-s-most-popular-trading-strategies-is-now-failing Please do bear in mind that the article above is referring to Trend Following Quants using automated systems.
  22. The 1000 DMA for Bitcoin is around the $4500 level if anyone is interested.
  23. The Nasdaq 100 has seen some very aggressive buying. It is above its: 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA 300 DMA 400 DMA 500 DMA 999 DMA The long term trend is upwards. Are there any traders on the IG Community who would trade against this trend? Are there any traders who still think that US indices are going to go down a lot lower or are already shorting them? I tried to short and in my own defence it was during the large drop in around December 2018 time if I remember correctly. So I was trading short with the trend. Obviously we know what happened next! My timing was wrong and I should have shorted it a lot sooner as the short trade was on but I got in too late and my stop loss was too wide so ended up with a loss.
  24. I appreciate this thread is called US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity but boy have I been wrong when starting this thread. In fact I have been day trading on the long side recently. I accept that I did not envisage this length of rally after the initial huge drop. I am not suggesting that a large shorting opportunity is not possible but at the moment my thoughts are never go against the trend and never fight the price action. All three of the US indices are pretty aggressively pushing upwards. Now it is possible that this last leg is what breaks the US indices into submission and they plummet downwards. Those contrarian traders may find an exciting risk / reward opportunity. At this rate the US indices could easily make new 52 week highs!
  25. $13000 is a key level for Live Cattle. If it does not make a new high then there could be a potential shorting opportunity should the price action present any confirmation signals of a trend reversal.
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