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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. If things were to turn sour on US indices then I see a potential 600 points on the 'short' trade. Now add leverage to this trade and you can see how attractive per point the US 100 short could be. Timing will be key. I got timing wrong on the previous occasion but I am opening and closing my positions more or less daily and taking the profits on down days. I am not trading on the long side and just remaining on the sidelines on those days as the longer term trend is still down on major US indices.
  2. The Nasdaq 100 is around 100 points down from yesterday. Trump has another round of talks with the Chinese this week. Earnings season is amongst us. Brexit vote. I think it will be interesting to see how UK markets close and how US markets open today.
  3. Gold and Silver are both trending higher than they were 24 hours ago.
  4. Gold is holding up rather well above the $1300 level and Silver is showing trend weakness but tomorrow could be a different animal altogether with the Brexit vote.
  5. It's after 10:00 pm and US indices are down and in the red just as expected. Markets will be jittery with Brexit as the UK is the world's fifth largest economy and has deep historical ties with major economies around the world including the US. If growth projections for the UK suffer as a result then it will have an impact on its major trading partners including the EU and US.
  6. @Mercury, Not all but for U.K. indices Brexit uncertaintly may relate to capital allocation strategies changing and position sizes reducing. Sound risk management!
  7. Yes just like the S&P 500 is ‘US 500’.
  8. @elle, Yes quite possibly. We have witnessed recently all the major indices moving together in a similar fashion from a chartist perspective. However, there is no given right for this to occur. We are possibly witnessing some divergence with the FTSE 100 as a result and maybe rightly so. One would expect the FTSE 100 to drop more than other major indices with the uncertainty around Brexit and the risks involved for the U.K. Markets hate uncertainty and tend to react accordingly to it.
  9. I am expecting a blue day today in both Gold and Silver following up Friday's move. Also due to the uncertainty in the markets and the Brexit vote tomorrow and I envisage a lot of day traders opening short positions. Also negative news is slowly being trickled for China and its economic performance and profits by the media. I think equities will be going down today and hence feel that both Gold and Silver will have a blue day today. It is 5:00 am and both Gold and Silver are in positive territory as the Asian markets head towards their close and the EU markets head towards their open.
  10. It is 5:00 am in the UK and the markets seem jittery. Brexit is being mentioned on all major news channels available on Sky both in the UK and abroad. We could see a day of red today unless there is some positive news released by the media which gives traders and investors a reason to go long. I am expecting all the major indices to be in the red today as I can imagine a lot of short positions being opened by day traders the day before the Brexit vote due to uncertainty.
  11. The UK is making a strong push in improving its trading relationship with China. It should be trading far more with China and India based on their growth performance and potential going forwards. Also the sheer size of their markets means the potential is there and the UK should be striving to provide goods and services to China and India as they are going to be serious players in the next 10-20 years if not a lot sooner.
  12. @Caseynotes, Those charts are very interesting. What I am unsure about is whether Brexit is going to affect the rest of the world? If so then by how much? It possibly may not have any detrimental effect to other major economies around the world but this is the part which I am finding it extremely difficult to quantify even on an assumptive basis using predictive modelling.
  13. Does anybody on the IG Community think that the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 or the Dow will be making new 52 week highs in 2019?
  14. May I ask if anyone else is trading this on the IG Community?
  15. @Caseynotes, These forecasts could potentially change as Brexit implications are more clearer. Also countries like India are forecasting GDP of around 7% and Trump promised so much in putting America first that GDP in Q3 from 2.4% to 2% is certainly not what many in the US were expecting. I agree it is not actually that bad under the circumstances. From what I am hearing (in my circle) and my circle could be wrong is that at some point significant capital from especially US equities has to unwind and will shift into another generating better returns and providing higher yield. When this happens which could be a year to two away or may have even began but many don't realise it, US equities could slowly grind lower with large and long rallies along the way distracting the views of many. It will be interesting to see how the longest government shutdown in US's history affects the forecasts going forwards. I also think there is a fundamental shift of GDP growth from the west now to the east. Asia is fuelling this increase and the next decade I believe will belong to Asia in terms of GDP growth. For long term investors it is worth bearing this in mind when it comes to portfolio allocation in your investment portfolios. Obviously the growth figures released will either support my view or reject it so please do not just accept my point blindly but let the figures confirm or reject such a notion.
  16. This issue keeps on appearing from different posters on IG Community so it is clearly an issue. The problem is that the 'dividend reinvestment' is not a current priority for IG at the moment and no one including they know when it will be a priority for them.
  17. @KOMat, No, I have not traded KIO lately. My view on the stock is that since the end of November 2018 the price has been creeping upwards nicely and slowly. It seems to be just about making new higher lows and higher highs but just! Also the price at the end of November 2018 seems like it was the lowest price point over the past five years or so. The stock may well have bottomed and the downside risks could potentially be limited and more upside potential but this is not a given. I would suggest looking at the volume and establish if volume is increasing with the rise in price. I would then look at the moving averages and see how the price is reacting to key metrics such as 20 DMA, 50 DMA, 100 DMA and 200 DMA. From a fundamental perspective have a look at how much debt the company has? Are revenues increasing year on year? Is the company profitable and if so are the profits increasing year on year? If it is loss making then are losses declining year on year? Does the company pay dividends? Are the dividends increasing year on year? What are the future prospects of the company? What are the demand/supply scenarios for Iron Ore? How is the price of Iron Ore behaving? These are just some thoughts that I have quickly posted that were in my mind. Hope this helps.
  18. @gautamhait, Yes I am long both Gold and Silver. What I am doing is taking my profits and re-entering rather than leave my positions open and pay constant daily charges even if the move in Gold and Silver is against my trades.
  19. @gautamhait, I am afraid I find it extremely difficult to assist you. You do not seem to understand anything I am posting to you and you keep on asking the same questions. I will not be giving you my e-mail address. That is final. You can message me like all the other traders on IG's messaging platform. It works very similar to e-mail. I do not know how far it will be as I do not have magic powers and nor can I tell the future. I cannot even suggest to you to buy Gold long term as I trade on price action and like I have openly said I do not like Gold at all as an investment. I strongly feel there are better long term investments out there based on my risk tolerance than Gold over the next 10-20 years. Let me ask you this @gautamhait, how do you intend to trade or invest in Gold on the long side? Are you going to physically buy Gold, invest in a Gold ETF/ETC, invest in a Gold fund or investment trust, spread bet Gold, CFD Gold, futures market Gold, invest in junior Gold mining companies, etc? Also @gautamhait what country are you from? I clearly get the impression you are not from the UK which is the country I am from.
  20. Well the US Government has ended albeit temporarily the shutdown. The markets which were expected to sharply fall have risen phenomenally, especially the US indices. I tried to short the US indices and clearly got the trades wrong. Right now based on price action one should be trading long as one should never go against the trend regardless of fundamentals, economics, news, etc. Trends can be extremely powerful and if one trades solely based on fundamentals when there is a disconnect with the price action then it can be extremely dangerous. When you look at the US debt levels, potential interest rate rises in the US, US-China trade war, slowing down of the US economy with GDP figures possibly declining going forwards, potential company earnings declining and the potential unwinding of capital in US equities points towards a falling US stock market. The price action is telling us a different narrative right now which could change at any moment so one must follow the price action very carefully. Stock markets are a 'future price discounting mechanism'. So they are telling us what they think is going to happen around six months into the future. A lot of investors and traders forget this point. The key data to look at is the forecasts of say six months and twelve months ahead. What are the data expectations going forwards.
  21. It seems that Gold, Silver and Platinum followed similar price behaviour yesterday. Was it because of the US Government re-opening albeit temporarily? We would certainly like to think so and convince ourselves that every significant price action is based on some form of news which we can relate to the price action. There will be many times when this is the case. However, there are times when positions are being built and prices are moving without any specific news that has been released by the media. Previous metals are a very interesting asset class within the Commodities asset class and within the metals asset class. They have industrial uses but are historically known to be used as a hedge against uncertainty in the economies around the world. Interest rates and inflation can play a key part in the portfolio allocation of precious metals and the likes of bonds. There is also another factor which affects the prices of precious metals. That is demand and supply. How much demand is there and are there any supply issues and these can cause sharp moves either upwards or downwards in precious metals. Mining strikes, wars, serious supply issues when there is large demand, etc. There could be a rally in precious metals which lasts a year or two and what we are seeing since August 2018 is merely the beginning. One must remember that trends can last a lot longer than one thinks.
  22. I am getting a lot of messages from IG Community members asking for help, guidance and suggestions. I try and respond to as many as I can but I just simply at times to do not have the time. I thought it was a good moment to add to this thread. I cannot advise someone what to trade and nor would I want to as they could try and copy me and make a loss and then blame me. I am happy to share what assets and specific trades I am looking at or trading and why. It is then up to others what they do.
  23. @gautamhait, I am not going to give anyone my personal e-mail address. You are more than welcome to discuss things with me here on the IG Community where it is open and transparent and if I were to give incorrect advice or mention something blatantly wrong then I can be challenged on the IG Community in a professional and respectful way. This will enhance your experience and add value to your IG Community experience. If you really want to discuss something privately with me then you can send me a message like a lot of other traders and investors do using IG's messaging service. I was just responding to another trader just now using that facility. I do find it at times difficult to understand your posts as I am not familiar with your writing style and have to make far too many assumptions. May I ask why you would like my e-mail address?
  24. @Tudor2, They say an apple a day is good for you! 😀 On a more serious note, I use the IG App on an iPhone and don't seem to have any problems.
  25. If you look at my last post back on 30th October 2018 and my analysis then look at the chart below: Need I say anymore? The key is to identify potential trends to trade. Then it is about trading them. As long as sound risk management strategy is applied and stop losses are in place then it is about riding the trend until it changes direction. This includes any sideways activity for a longer period than envisaged for me. You can re-enter the trade as many times as you like but never go against the trend.
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