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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Dantro & @Dantro, One of the key principles of trend following is letting your winners run. So not to take profits too early as otherwise you may miss the big profitable move of the trade and trend. Stop loss management is all about effective risk management. It is about cutting your losses early so that they do not get too big but at the same time if the asset you are trading is extremely volatile then to ensure you do not get stopped out too early either. It is a difficult one. Try and ignore the so called experts (market noise) and especially the TV News, Newspapers and Online Media. Let the price action determine your trade. I am not suggesting or tipping Palladium or Live Cattle though I trade both. I am highlighting the trend from a 'chartist perspective' in terms of strength and length compared to Oil which is what you are trading. I think an important factor for you is which trading strategy you wish to adopt? Do you want to be a swing trader? Do you want to be a momentum trader? Do you want to be a scalper? Do you want to be a trend follower? Do you want to be a contrarian trader? Do you want to be a day trader? You must have a trading plan, trading strategy and a trading system to have any chance of being profitable over a longer period of time. Failing to plan is simply a plan to fail.
  2. @kpnuts, No problem. It will be interesting to see if it is mainly US large caps or whether you can invest in US small and mid caps too?
  3. Traders who adopt trend following principles will love to see strong trends as you can see in Live Cattle. Trading with the trend increases your probability of success in the trade. The odds tilt in your favour. It does not guarantee a profitable trade but merely increases your chances. Trading is difficult at the best of times. The markets are ruthless. Trend following may not be the most profitable strategy but it is a strategy that can certainly decrease some of the risk associated with trading by never trading against the trend.
  4. @Dantro & @Dantro, I would suggest you concentrate on just one specific asset first whether that be FX or Commodities. Within that concentrate on one FX pair or one commodity which has the strongest price action and trend. Use technical indicators to help you establish this. For example if you look at the chart of Gold and Oil then Gold is the stronger trending commodity. Look at the charts for Live Cattle and Oil and Live Cattle is the stronger trending commodity. Look at the chart for Palladium and Oil and Palladium is the stronger trending commodity. So I am not sure how you are selecting your commodity trades but I would suggest selecting one specific commodity and trading with the trend rather than against it.
  5. More of the normal service is resuming with Bitcoin et al. There is a lot of capital entering and flooding the Cryptocurrency market in anticipation of the next bull run. There will be plenty who will not want to miss out if this was to occur and hit several price points. If the price action supports the technicals then there is the possibility of lots of capital flooding this new asset class causing large daily price increases in not just Bitcoin but the other smaller Cryptos.
  6. Gold and Silver both consolidating and looking confused at the same time.
  7. US Indices are showing a remarkably resilient trend in the face of 'so called experts' predicting doom and gloom. This may still happen but from a purely trading perspective the 'Trend is your Friend' is of paramount importance when applying trend following principles. The price action has been very positive and since the low of Christmas 2018 any long trade would have been very profitable over the past two months. Using leverage effectively would have increased profits over this two month period. Even after all the daily charges going 'long' on US indices over this two month period would have been an excellent trade. Trend following needs to take personal views, personal bias, personal opinions and 'noise' out of the equation and trade based on current price action. There is no room for emotions! Looking too much into history and what happened historically can also be dangerous as it causes one to have an expectation that does not materialise. The market is not there to satisfy what some think should happen. New trends can emerge and a new future can replace historical trends and if one does not follow the price action then one can miss out in the participation of some of the greatest trends.
  8. @elle, Yes I have seen this before. I think it may have even been you who posted it a few weeks back.
  9. @kpnuts, I do not have an ISA with IG but through my provider I do believe I can invest in US shares (need to submit W8-BEN). I can only assume you can do the same with IG as I have not seen or read anything to suggest it cannot be done. It will only be those US shares available on IG's platform so it may not include US Small and US Micro Caps.
  10. @Money_Hunter, It really depends on what asset you want to trade and how much leverage you want to use. This will determine your margin requirements. You can test this by 'Buying' or 'Selling' at the minimum per point (UK Spread betting) to see how much margin you would require for that specific trade. As a minimum, my understanding is that you have to deposit at least £250.00 if from the UK. I am not sure which country you are from so there may be different rules for different jurisdictions around the world. @JamesIG, another example of where my idea of the national flag would be both helpful and useful. Is there any update in terms of where IG are on this idea of mine?
  11. @Dantro & @Dantro, May I ask what assets you are trading or looking to trade?
  12. US 100 (Nasdaq 100) has taken out the lowest mountain point of the three points. It is now looking to surpass the second mountain point. US 500 (S&P 500) it trying to take out the lowest mountain point of the three points but is struggling to surpass and stay about it. Wall Street (Dow Jones) has also taken out the lowest mountain point of the three points. It is now looking to surpass the second mountain point. With US-China trade talk extensions being discussed this week will be very interesting in terms of price action as it is reported that such extensions may already be priced into the markets.
  13. From a chartist perspective it seems Gold and Silver are gearing up for the next leg up this week. With US-China trade extension talks it may well just allow this to happen.
  14. @Dantro & @Dantro, Apologies but there are x2 Dantro's coming up when using the @ sign. I am not sure which country you are from as there may be different functionality on IG platforms throughout different jurisdictions around the world. I am from the UK and operate on IG's platform in the UK. I have just checked my UK Spreadbetting account and I get three options on stop losses which are: Normal Guaranteed Trailing So trailing is def. an option on IG's UK Spreadbetting platform. I would not want to trade trends without it.
  15. Well Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies never fail to disappoint! Normal service has resumed and a mammoth 300+ point drop in Bitcoin. EOS is down over 16% which tells me that it is speculators that are running the show on this asset class rather than real hardcore investors and investment firms. The question now is whether the big drop and the new low is coming which makes a good shorting opportunity or is this just a correction before the next upward leg resumes? This asset class is as risky as they get. They make Commodity Trading look low risk! LOL 😀
  16. @akatyk, You may be right but for those who opened when Bitcoin was trading in the $3000's have already made a nice profit. If you then add leverage to the mix then even more profit. One could have argued the same with US indices but they kept on going up and up and are still going up. Markets do not always conform to the emotions and principles that traders believe in. If you take personal opinions, beliefs and emotions out of the equation and base it purely on price action then Bitcoin and Crypto's have to be considered. If you feel that it is a relief rally or false breakout, then fine, your stop loss will allow you to exit either at a profit or small loss. You are right you should absolutely think twice or even three times before opening a new position and next week will be an interesting week for Cryptos and a lot more will be revealed. What is your basis for thinking that there are no current opportunities and you think only previous ones will play out? You may be right and I am not disagreeing with you but what is your basis for this? Is it just based on historical trends and price action? Is it history which is determining your view? If so then it would be so difficult to enter any trades if they had not performed as per historical notions. I am just offering a balanced view and a counter argument though I do understand and to a certain degree even agree with your assessment based on this specific moment in time. My basis for not entering a new trade on Bitcoin would be due to the way the moving averages are sloping. For me they are not sloping upwards so I would wait until at least the 20 and 50 DMA were and the 100 DMA was either sideways or starting to slop upwards. Litecoin is proving to be the most aggressive in its positive upward price action and its moving averages curves are sloping the most positive out of all the Cryptocurrencies that IG offers on its platforms at the moment. I am attaching the chart to illustrate this to the IG Community.
  17. @akatyk, Bitcoin hit $4207.10 overnight. I now want to see how Bitcoin's price behaves. Does it go for an aggressive move towards $6500.00 with a few small corrections along the way or will it be slow and steady rising? It is difficult not to let past performance cloud your judgement so most will be expecting Bitcoin to drop further based on historical trends over the past 12 months and more. My advice is just to trade the current price action with a stop loss in place. Trade the trend and exit when the trend reverses. If it does not then ride the trend until it reverses.
  18. I have mentioned this before but the weekend does encounter major moves in Cryptocurrencies when they are trending up. I noticed this a couple of years ago. I had to keep my positions open on Friday as otherwise I would have missed some major gains. This is an extremely high risk strategy so I would not encourage anyone to do this but I did this in all my madness but reaped the rewards with some excellent returns. Very high risk and dangerous but for the serious Cryptocurrency traders it is worth bearing in mind when they are trending up strongly.
  19. Bitcoin has crossed that psychological $4000.00 mark and hit $4151.70. If it can cross $4200.00 then things are really going to start getting interesting as the bulk of the downside has been done. Yes there could be a new low and we may see $2000 or so but the large chunk of the downside activity has occurred in my personal opinion. For me now going forwards the key is whether Bitcoin surpasses the $4200 level and stays above it. If it does then it is going to target at some point in 2019 the $6500.00 level. The price action will now either validate my assumption by its price behaviour or invalidate it.
  20. @elle, An interesting watch. This is an excellent example of why not to trade against the trend which is clearly up at the moment unless you are looking at a yearly timeframe!!!
  21. @Dantro, My personal basis is to start with the daily and then compare it to the weekly and monthly. Only then do I look at lower timeframes and primarily 4 hour to 1 hour timeframes to establish if in sync with direction of trend. I only use lower timeframes for day trading or short term trades. When I am trend following then I am looking at the longer timeframes more as I am going to keep the position open until the trend changes. If there are any big drops and the trade has clearly gone against me then my stop loss should have triggered and executed an exit from the trade. I always know my exit price before I enter the trade. This is a key part of my trading strategy. When I am in profit then I switch to a trialing stop so I know I cannot make a loss in that trade. I have no issues re entering that trade should trend confirmation take place. I am comfortable entering the trade as many times as I need to but at the same time I am happy to move on to the next trend should any trend confirmation not be established. I try not to trade against the trend.
  22. To add to some of @Caseynotes points above I would like to add some key ingredients which are essential for all traders even before they get to the list mentioned above: This is a list which I have created so it will not be found in any text books or social media.: Passion, Enthusiasm and Dedication for Trading Willingness to put the effort and hard work in to learning about trading Continuous Improvement in Reading and Researching (R&R) - Continuous Learning Identifying which assets to trade and focus on and developing a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system I think we all can come up with different lists in different order and there is no given correct list in the correct sequence but I personally believe that with out my list above it makes it very difficult to complete the list in @Caseynotes post.
  23. Very interesting. Will Bitcoin as a brand be anywhere in the next 15 years?
  24. @Caseynotes & @EMDE, I agree with @Caseynotespost above. @EMDE it is much harder than the article tries to demonstrate. If it were easy then we all would be doing it extremely successfully. It is hard and requires lots of effort, price monitoring, trend monitoring, etc. Using a longer term timeframe in my opinion is the easy bit when applying the MTF approach. What is difficult is when you begin analysing LTF's and this is where it starts becoming tricky due to volatility, false breakouts and false trend reversals, etc. However, it can be done and there are many who apply this successfully when executed well. If think the key for me personally is to ensure when looking at the LTF's then it is clearly aligned with the HTF's. I always try to ensure this when using a MTF approach as even if short term the trade goes against you then (based on stop loss distance) it can always recover as you are trading with the longer term timeframe trend.
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