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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Lumber is one of my favourite commodity trades over the past couple of years and it is starting 2019 rather well. The 'daily' chart is looking exciting! Ignore at your peril! No seriously the Lumber trends are special if you can get an opportunity to ride them.
  2. At the moment the rally is pretty spectacular. I see a very crucial point coming which the chart below will highlight. I have added a trend line which will show that we are at a stage where if the price keeps on rising then shorting right now is simply not an option unless a monster downward movement follows.
  3. I see Gold and Silver's price action being on the upside at least until the Brexit situation is more clearer and the US Shutdown matter is closer to resolution. This could be next week to be honest but also next month! I think Gold and Silver long plays are good trades during this period. They could still go wrong but with sound risk management (stop losses) and a clear exit plan one should be able to profit until sentiment changes and the trend reverses. We never quite saw a trend reversal on the last correction so this is resuming the rally. However, I have seen such moves entice buyers and then large drop comes so be aware and careful.
  4. Yes I am long both Gold and Silver if that is what you mean.
  5. Gold and Silver have just ‘popped’. The daily chart was building towards this and seem to indicate this potential move. Not sure how long it will last.
  6. I am assuming the ‘Guest Contact’ and ‘Guest E-Mail’ are the same person and were after my email address? Please can you confirm whose email address you are after? I get a lot of people contact me on IG through messages within the IG platform. Please feel free to do so if it is me you are referring to. I would not give out my personal email address on threads and posts but you can communicate with me or anyone else through IG’s messaging service which still remains private just like email.
  7. Gold seems to be defending the $1280 level rather well for now.
  8. Tomorrow there will be voting in the US Senate in relation to the Government shutdown. This news will create price action one way or another for US indices.
  9. @Nelsy-Boy, The good old fashioned way is doing it yourself. Yes it is hard work and yes it is time consuming and you will miss lots of potential opportunities but you cannot trade all of them anyway. The lazy way would be 'Barchart' and 'Sharescope'.
  10. The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) also offers an attractive risk/reward trade in terms of margin you have put up against daily points on offer. This matters as the more leverage you use the higher the margin requirements. I am getting more and more keen on day trading in the direction of the short term daily trend.
  11. Some of you will be following another thread of mine suggesting a potential 'Long' Carbon Emissions and 'Short' Natural Gas trade but this thread is focussing on Carbon Emissions. The chart is looking very interesting right now.
  12. The 'Long' Carbon Emissions and 'Short' Natural Gas trade is potentially becoming a reality. If you look at both charts then you will begin to understand why.
  13. The Lumber price action is starting to get very interesting. It is slowly creeping upwards. It is not making the headlines or making any noises but it is my 'Silent Assassin' when it comes to a trade. It is not the 'sexiest' of Commodities but it was one of my best performing trades of recent times both on the 'long' and 'short' trades. It is at a critical juncture right now but it is worth keeping an eye on as it can give a good indicator to the US housing market too! 😉
  14. I would like to see Gold clear $1294 level to confirm its upward trend and for Silver $15.72 level. Until this happens any move cannot be confirmed as a continuation of the upward trend in my personal opinion. Both Gold and Silver were due a break from the rally we saw but the bulls will want to see continuation of that rally and this drop may provide a strong foundation and base for any larger upward move in both precious metals. With equities declining then it may just give the push required for the next move upwards in both. Such drops are seen as healthy and are absolutely required to take any potential rally in both Gold and Silver seriously. Otherwise you would see the 'Bubble Bitcoin' chart! 😀
  15. @Stewart, It sure does. I would expect the S&P 500 to test the level seen around 26th December 2018 (double bottom) at the very least. If things start turning ugly around the major countries in the world such as US, China, UK (Brexit) then we could see a move further downwards but this is just assumption based from me. The price action will test my assumptions and tell me if I am right or wrong. The risk on shorting the Dow and S&P is that any positive news will be pounced upon by the buyers creating large rallies which will increase the size and sharpness of the volatility and make trading conditions extremely difficult. I am tempted to day trade any move downwards in the S&P 500 thus taking smaller profits daily and avoiding the overnight charges. It is just a thought but one I am seriously considering.
  16. I think the price action of Bonds can be quite telling in such times of uncertainty.
  17. This could potentially see a sell off in equity markets. I am not sure if what we witnessed recently was just a monster relief rally or if there is indeed some substance behind the recent rally. I guess we are about to find out in the coming days and weeks.
  18. @Caseynotes, yes you are right. It seems the Gold market is being driven by news and the price is reacting.
  19. Right now there is just as much chance that Gold resumes it next move upwards and hits $1300 as there is that it continues its move downwards and goes below $1270 level. No one knows though the longer term trend since August 2018 is still upwards for now. It seems that news released in the media (such as growth updates on certain countries like US, China, etc.) along with sentiment will play a part in Gold's next move. If indices continue moving upwards then I feel that Gold could see a decline and of course the US Dollar will play a significant role in Gold's price action.
  20. @dmedin, At the moment any short on Gold would be a short term trade as for me there is no trend reversal confirmation so for longer term traders it would be extremely tricky to go short on Gold right now especially whilst it is above the $1280 level.
  21. @cryptotrader, If you look at the price action along with other indicators such as volume, momentum, moving averages, etc. then it gives us an idea (that is all it is) of what may happen going forwards. So for example the link between rising / falling volume on any price moves upwards / downwards, etc. I think the better traders will create their own trades of the week. If one has to rely on IG's trades of the week then to me it infers that they are not putting in the ground work themselves to identify potential trading opportunities. Yes on occasions I accept IG may highlight a trade that one may not have considered and that is fine but I think there are more than enough trading opportunities out there in the major asset classes of equities, FX and commodities.
  22. @Caseynotes, Yes it does hence I never pay much attention to any IG trades of the week. Price action does not lie and by following it, gives a better chance of understanding what any future direction may be.
  23. @Caseynotes, Gold could still have another go at breaking that. Whether it will or not I don't know but I am sure we will find out over the course of this week.
  24. For me the trend up is still upwards and what we are witnesses is a mere correction. However if the price was to go below its 50 day moving average then I think we could see a trend change. The $1261.00 level will be crucial. If this holds and Gold stays above it then we could see another move upwards. If this price does not hold then I do fear we may witness longs closing, more shorts opening and stop losses being triggered causing a further drop to the price of Gold and potentially eliminating recent gains for those who are left holding based on 'market noise', 'emotions', 'fundamentals', etc.
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