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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Gold continuing its current downtrend. A shorting opportunity presents itself!
  2. @Pikto, It is 5:00 am and it is already down around 6 points. It went up to $1310.60 yesterday and is now trading at $1303.68. It seems the short term trend is manifesting its way downwards. I do not know how long it is going to hold there. I do not know how low Gold will go or how high it will go. The claims these analysts make are based on historical price behaviour which does not guarantee that Gold will act according to past behaviour going forwards. If it was that easy to predict future price action using technical analysis and past patterns and trends, we would all know when to trade that asset and when to go long and short. We would all be profitable majority of the time. Unfortunately it is not that easy. Gold is not obliged to follow any rules or conform to any technical analysis. That is not to suggest it will not do but I do not know. One can make assumptions which can then be tested by the price action or one can simply make predictions. There is nothing wrong with that as long as one makes clear that they are assumptions or predictions.
  3. Voting in relation Brexit is creating uncertainty. This is providing a bullish impetus to Gold. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/summary-trade-after-brexit
  4. I wanted to share something rather positive in my personal opinion in relation to Blockchain with the IG Community. This was announced a couple of days ago to the market and media but could be just the beginning. Invesco launches blockchain ETF https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2019/03/11/invesco-launches-blockchain-etf/ Invesco partners with Elwood AM for blockchain ETF launch https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/3072340/invesco-partners-with-elwood-am-for-blockchain-etf-launch The article below was published last week. Invesco blockchain ETF to launch on London Stock Exchange https://www.ft.com/content/70ced539-40e5-339f-9cbb-eae29f76e458 There are other Blockchain ETF's available around the world so this is not the first one by any means. Invesco is a heavyweight and listing on the London Stock Exchange adds to the credibility.
  5. Well the US indices are just continuing to go up and up. The Nasdaq seems to be leading the way from a chartist perspective. There is a saying that what goes up must come down. At some point there must be a mighty correction as the following occurs: Profit Taking Stop losses being triggered New short trades opening and adding to exiting short trades Amplified downward move (quick and sharp drop) Patience will be the key. Right now I would not suggest going against the trend. I think one should either trade the US indices on the long side or day trade them on the long side which is what I have been doing recently. One must wait for the any major correction to take place and react to this and try and ride any trend downwards rather than try and predict them. There have been many times recently when one could think the US markets are going to tank and they just continue going upwards. The market does not behave like the majority of traders think it should. The market, the professionals, the large institutions and the complex algorithms know what the general traders follow in terms of technical analysis and text book theory. It can be programmed to take into account indicators and theories into its trade execution strategy. It can act in nano seconds whilst the normal trader is busy following certain technical analysis theory they have learnt and getting the trades wrong. There is nothing wrong with getting trades wrong. That is part of trading. One must realise that technical analysis cannot guarantee how the price will move going forwards so one must look at trade execution which puts odds and probability in their favour. In my opinion this is based on current real time price action rather than historical price action.
  6. @Pikto, With the second day of Brexit related voting in Parliament, Gold, has remained in its bullish tone. With a further third day of voting tomorrow I am expecting further uncertainly surrounding Brexit and Gold has a high probability chance of going beyond $1310. You asked me on Saturday if Gold would go above $1302. Well Gold's price action has answered your question.
  7. @Dai, I am guessing that you clicking on your profile name at the top right of your screen. There will be a small triangle pointing downwards. It is a very small triangle. I do not know for sure but I believe you can change your e-mail address from here. When you state profile address do you mean e-mail address?
  8. @jaggupta, That is a very vague question. Which specific assets are you referring to? Are you referring to CFD, Spread Betting or Share accounts?
  9. At 5:00 am, Gold is performing a lot stronger than Silver. With the Brexit uncertainty and another vote today on No-Deal Brexit, it is taking the lead and showing Silver the way. I think Gold will remain positive while the Brexit uncertainty lingers. The mere fact that it is staying above $1300 is positive. What I find interesting is that an IG Analyst provided its usual if Gold goes above x price then it will be bullish and if it goes below x price then it will be bearish with a chart stuck in there too! Surely that IG Analyst must know about the Brexit votes and how Gold could potentially behave but there was no mention of Brexit in the analysis which really does make me wonder of the worth of providing such analysis?
  10. @Caseynotes, Thanks for this confirmation. Very useful to know. @andysinclair& @RichB-Trader, So IG's Client Sentiment data is made up of its retail clients. Now in the large Commodity arena how significant are IG's retail clients in actually physically moving the prices of Commodities? I am not saying that the IG's Sentiment data cannot be used or is not similar to what really is the sentiment. In my opinion the sentiment that really matters is of those who actually influence the price to move on any specific asset. That is the only sentiment data I would use. How influential are those traders who trade Commodities either via CFD or Spread Betting on IG's platform? I am talking about the world arena here as they are being traded all over the world. How many retail clients does IG have? Of these how many in terms of numbers rather than percentages are long / short? What if out of 20,000 retail clients only 1,543 were long? The percentage for being long would be low. Now if out of 20,000 retail clients 18,787 were long the percentage would be higher. The point I am making is that the significance is important. So on say Gold, IG has 10,000 retail clients and of this only 24 were long Gold, this has to be taken into account. Otherwise the percentage are absolutely meaningless. What serious value can be derived from them? How are any of you satisfied that IG for example on say Bitcoin (high margin requirements) does not have 10 retail clients and of these 8 are long and 2 are short? Now the percentages look significant as it would mean 80% are long and 20% are short. Now the key question here is how many actual retail traders make up the 80% and the 20%. What are the total number of traders? Even if IG provided this data which I am pretty sure it will not then the sentiment of IG Clients who trade Bitcoin possibly do not have any bearing or influence on moving the price in either direction so how significant is this? Again what value can be derived from this? I will keep an open mind to see if anyone can present any data, information or serious arguments which can make me really think about changing my view. I have no issue about being wrong or maybe not even understanding something. This is a very interesting discussion though.
  11. @Trevbeats, https://www.marketwatch.com/livevideo
  12. @andysinclair, One would like to think it is based on global clients but this would need to be confirmed by IG. I would imagine that this sentiment must fluctuate constantly as day traders could be short on one trade then long on that very same trade depending on that particular day. How does the IG Client Sentiment indicator deal with day traders? In fact does IG know how many of its clients day trade? If so then is this somehow factored into the IG Client Sentiment indicator? I understand your point on Contrarian traders and it is an important point that you make. However, I feel that for example Commodity traders would use the data on long and short (futures positions) for their sentiment data or the Commitment of Traders Report Published by the CFTC. Also known as the 'COT'. There are possibilities on using sentiment to trigger trading decisions but it is how the sentiment data is derived and what it includes which is of paramount importance. There is too much uncertainty and vagueness about IG's Client Sentiment data which makes is unusable for me right now. Yes, it could be a contrary indicator but which IG Clients are actually using it as such? It would be interesting for them to share their insight and decision making process using such an indicator. What is unknown are the parameters used to derive the IG Client Sentiment indicators?
  13. I think there has been a recent short term disconnect between the Dow Jones in relation to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The question now is whether the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 will follow the Dow's lead or not?
  14. 13 hours later from my above post and... 7:20 pm Gold is up over 8 points and 0.64% 7:20 pm - Silver is up over 14 points and 0.93% So any day trade from this morning at 5:00 am and any close from say 5:00 pm so 12 hour hold would have resulted in a profit. There could be further votes on Brexit tomorrow and Thursday so Gold and Silver along with Bonds will be very interesting. In about 40 minutes we shall get the results from the voting today so my eyes will be on Gold and Silver and how they react to the results of the vote.
  15. Precious Metals are performing as expected and the time is 7:17 pm at the time of this post. Gold up nearly 9 points at the time of writing Silver up nearly 16 points at the time of writing Platinum up over 17 points at the time of writing Palladium up nearly 2 points at the time of writing
  16. Keep a close eye on Bonds as this will be a useful indicator on expectations going forwards. @JamesIG, I don't know if there is a problem on IG's UK Spread Betting Platform but the US Ultra Treasury Bond was up over 120 points at an hour ago so around 6:00 pm UK time. Is this right? That would be absurd move in points! I have to admit the platform is very 'clunky' today. It may be the trading volume with Brexit negotiations and the votes this week but the platform is shaky.
  17. I think one important factor to bear in mind is that this is the sentiment of IG Clients. Now in FX Pairs, one would imagine the sentiment of IG Clients is not as great when compared to the Sentiment on Wall Street in general or say London based FX Hedge Funds, professional FX traders based in Hong Kong and Singapore, etc. Also is this for IG Clients worldwide or does it only include UK Clients for those traders in the UK and so on? What could be done is for someone to look at the IG Client Sentiment and trade either with it or against it (opposite) and record the results in terms of profitable success or losses. This will help to add value behind the IG Client sentiment indicators. It will add meaning and context in relation to whether it can be even used in any trading decisions. I don't know the answer and some of you may well have already established the answer on this but that would be a great foundation and starting point. So for example only 31% of IG Clients are short the FTSE 100 at this moment in time. What is the current price action for the FTSE 100 doing? Are the 31% on the correct side of the trade? The other thing you do not know is when they opened their short positions and whether it has been open for a long, long time. Remember 81% of IG Clients lose money. When I look at the FTSE 100 and its high in the middle of May 2018 then it is still in a downtrend in my personal opinion since then. Also the Client Sentiment indicator can be misleading. How many of the IG Clients are day trading, trend trading, long term traders, etc? There are many facets and layers to this indicator so one must be very careful. Personally, I would rather just follow the price action unless there is any credible analysis presented that can justify any use of IG Client Sentiment information. If it was worldwide total clients in 80 different countries, it could be more meaningful but where is the evidence in terms of data? If I am missing something here then it would be helpful to know. What do traders use the IG Client Sentiment for and do they add any value in trading strategies or trading decisions and if so how? I can understand World Hedge Fund Sentiment or World Investment Bank Sentiment when it comes to trading but maybe I don't quite fully appreciate this indicator. May be I can learn something here to add to my 'trading decision basket'. I shall keep an open mind and see what others can articulate here.
  18. @LP2001, You will need to have completed the W8-BEN form and submitted it.
  19. With Brexit uncertainty one could predict a good day for Precious Metals today based on conventional wisdom. Now the market knows this so I will be rather interested in seeing how they perform today. All four Precious Metals are up this morning around 5:00 am. It will be interesting to see how they finish tonight. Do they follow historical theory or do the opposite.
  20. There seems to be short term support at around $3800. It seems to be waiting for some form of news to help it move!
  21. 5:00 am - Gold is up over 3 points and 0.25% 5:00 am - Silver is up over 8 points and 0.55%
  22. I have read several reports indicating that Bitcoin is in a strong consolidation period and the reports are inferring that this is prior to any move up. One could argue that the consolidation period may be prior to any move down. There is no real trend to trade in Bitcoin at this moment in time. This could be a positive for Bitcoin as the volatility may be reducing and the wild swings and large moves up and down could be declining.
  23. The recent rise in Gold prices has not continued. Now in my experience this could be simply down to short covering activity. This is an assumption by me as I do not know for sure but it would not surprise me. To me the short term trend is down. There will be a lot of traders using technical analysis to predict / assume how the price will react. The market knows and understands this. The professional traders know this. The best Commodity Hedge Funds know this and is most likely to be programmed into their trading system. As a result I am not expecting Gold to follow the conventional rules that technical traders will be hoping for in terms of Fibonacci retracements, etc. Now I could be wrong so I will use this opportunity to test my assumption by following the price action to see how Gold's price behaves and what happens.
  24. Palladium is still showing signs of strength in its upward trend. All four 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA curves are sloping nice upwards which to me personally is a bullish sign. I include the chart below to illustrate this point. Now what could happen next is possibly a continuation of the uptrend or a very sharp drop which is very common in Commodities. This asset class tends to attract a lot of speculative trades hence why trends tend to last a lot longer upwards and come crashing down quickly and sharply for fantastic shorting opportunities.
  25. I am not saying that using 'Support and Resistance' cannot be effective but I personally do not use them in my trend following system. I am sure others use them and they may well be very successful using them. Some of you may find this interesting. Some of you may reject this which is fine. Some of you may not be sure but it will certainly make you think from the Turtle Trader website. Do You Really Think All of the Indicators Will Help You Win? https://www.turtletrader.com/entry/
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