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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. The price action is hinting / suggesting at another move downwards which is long due and one expects profit taking and stop losses to be triggered as a result. Let’s see what happens!
  2. @TheGuru12, During the rise of Bitcoin over 12 months ago I remember placing numerous trades within a 2-4 hour period and my trades were lasting around 5-10 mins if that on some of them. This was on IG's Spread Betting platform!
  3. @Amirf, Have a look at the price around July 2017 period and during the drop. Research shows us that 'Bubbles' tend to revert back to mean. Now that does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin must revert back to its mean as it could create a new 'history' for itself but if it was to revert back to its prices before the 'parabolic rise' then it could go into the $2k area. The truth is I do not know what the Bitcoin price will be next month or next year and the assumption I make will be tested and the results will be known via the price action of Bitcoin. So we are about to find out.
  4. @Stewart, Yes I think you summarise it well. I think the notion of the trade was correct and my timing was initially good as I was 140 points up at one stage but I then opened a second position at the wrong time and then the trade went totally against me. Interesting about going short. I think I shall be trying again very soon.
  5. I would just like to add that yes backtesting is important when fine tuning a trading system to establish an 'edge' but I believe that forward testing is crucial to confirm if that 'edge' truly exists and to really confirm quantification of that 'edge'.
  6. @JamesIG, I just tried a test to short NEO and still the same message is appearing. This was 12:33 pm. I look forward to received an in-depth reply on Monday as to the reasons why this was happening.
  7. Palladium has been outperforming all the other precious metals by quite a distance. Yes the margin requirements are higher but the performance has been higher too! The spread is not actually that bad either on it. As I have stated in many occasions a long term upward trend can last a lot longer than one expects. Palladium has a unique benefit in that it is a precious metal that can go up during time of crisis but also it has important industrial uses which means when economies are doing well, their stock markets are doing well in the shape of equities / indices then Palladium can too perform well. Platinum has been the weakest and Gold and Silver seeming to be at the beginning of their journey to possibly join Palladium but I do not think Palladium is about to give up its crown as 'Top Dog' anytime soon. From an investment portfolio perspective, I would want to start considering shifting a small allocation from equities into Precious Metals and Bonds and think about rebalancing based on Brexit consequences, recessions in certain EU Member States such as France and Germany and the US!
  8. I do not think the large financial institutions are going to flood capital into the Cryptocurrency markets in the likes of Bitcoin until the price is around the $2k area. There will be volatility and rallies along the way but it seems that Bitcoin is heading for the $2k area unless there is a remarkable change in sentiment and capital begins to be invested in Cryptocurrencies by the largest banks, etc.
  9. The only asset I day trade is Cryptocurrencies. I at times only place trades which last 5-10 mins within Cryptocurrencies. I just tried to short Neo, EOS and Stellar at 11:32 am on Saturday 19th January 2019 and could not do so. This is so frustrating. @JamesIG I am sure you will provide an explanation for this but I had to place the trade with another platform (competitor of IG's) and this happens far too often that I have lost count. The message I get is, "You cannot sell this market to open". I find short 5-10 min trades on Cryptocurrencies great when they are moving in a certain direction but IG's liquidity issues affect the level of service on Cryptocurrencies.
  10. I still believe the longer term trend is still (for now) in tact for both Gold and Silver on the 'Long' side. Therefore, it is likely that I will be looking to re-enter both very shortly should the upward move resume. Also, I think the next two months will be very volatile in the markets in general with Brexit et al and so I will be keeping an eye on the price action for both Gold and Silver for sure.
  11. @KU1, That is interesting. May I ask why not XAU / GBP? I am from the UK but I accept you may be based in another EU Member State but a very good question. I would like IG to offer XAU / GBP so lets see if IG can make us both happy!
  12. @softcell, No problem. Though I made losses on these trades it has done wonders for me in my 'Long Term Investment Portfolio' as I made some lump sum investments into my US Smaller Companies fund and Automation, Robotics and AI funds which have US based companies in the portfolio.
  13. I have exited the 'Short' position on the S&P 500 and the final result is as follows: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 ended up down 96 points. Both my 'Short' trades on the S&P 500 have resulted in losing trades. That is fine. One learns and moves on. I try not to get emotionally attached to any of my losing trades and I have had many. The S&P 500 is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages so it is not wise to open any shorts on this yet. The 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages are all sloping upwards which indicates to me a bullish pattern but the 200 day moving average is sloping downwards which still gives me the impression that there could be a big move downwards looming. I do not know when but I would be surprised if the S&P 500 did not revisit and re-test the recent low formed. The volume is not convincing in my opinion. When you look at the volume when I went opened my short trade compared to the volume now when it is trending upwards then there is a stark different. This does make me think whether this is just a monster relief rally and it does make me question how genuine this rally is. However, it is the price action which determines whether to trade or not and if so then which direction to trade everything else is secondary. I hope those who were following this live trade found it both useful and beneficial. Also for those of you not aware I was also sharing live trades in Gold and Silver which both were profitable trades so you may wish to look at that thread if you have not done so. It then gives a balanced picture of both profitable and losing trades shared with the IG Community.
  14. I have exited both 'long' positions in Gold and Silver today. The actual results are as follows: Long Trade in Silver up 78 points in just over one month from opening the trade Long Trade in Gold up 37 points in just over one month from opening the trade So I have profited from both trades in a reasonable timescale using the ability to leverage via Spread Betting. Gold and Silver have both gone below its 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages. Volume was higher on the downward days than the upward days recently. There may be a shift in sentiment due to the recent rally in the major indices such as the US and UK markets. Also there will be of course profit selling resulting in stop losses being triggered amplifying the move downwards. Right now it is about watching the price action and re-entering on the recommencing of the trend upwards for those looking to go long. There could also be a shorting opportunity but it is not something I would be looking at right now with all the uncertainty still in the market but for shorter term traders there could be some profitable short trades on both Gold and Silver.
  15. @Lech82, What is important is that you have considered all the different asset classed you could have traded and how you have come to the decision on trading FX pairs. This should be documented in your trading plan, especially the methodology you used which can always be revised as it should be a 'living' document which is adaptable. I assume you have chosen the FX pairs to trade due to the liquidity and taking into account the volatility? Do you want to day trade or trade longer trends? How have you come to the decision?
  16. For those on the IG Community interested in this trade and are 'long' stay in the trade and do not sell too early. Your stop loss should only execute your profitable exit once the trend has changed. Now speaking of trend changes and it will occur then one must be ready to short the very asset they have just profited from on a long trade. This helps to maximise profits from an asset whether that asset is trending upwards or downwards. If you look at Commodities such as Orange Juice, Lumber, etc. then this was evident. The trend downwards ends up being sharp and quick. I am expecting the same of Live Cattle. However there is no guarantee and it is certainly not a given. My personal opinion is that it is very likely. 'Assumption Testing' now required. So there is likely be a shorting opportunity for Live Cattle so be ready but keep long for now for those with open trades.
  17. If you look at both Gold and Silver right now then Gold seems ready for its next upward leg yet Silver is showing the opposite. It seems like it is ready for a downward move. I think both are waiting to see how the major equity indices perform before deciding upon its next course.
  18. Silver seems to be correcting stronger than Gold. Silver has just touched (at the time of posting) its 20 DMA downwards. Gold is looking far stronger at the moment from a chartist perspective but Silver tends to be someone who catches up later on and catches up hard and fast as we have seen on the recent rally.
  19. Lumber seems to be going through a consolidation phase. It is holding up rather well. The chart below highlights this point. I shall be keeping a close eye on the price action of Lumber.
  20. Live Cattle just keeps on rising! Have a look at the current chart below:
  21. @cryptotrader, Yes I must admit as I have watched the recent trend weaken I have considered taking profits but then remembered all the times historically when I have done that and the next leg upwards comes which is even stronger and sharper. This is why I wait until the trend reverses which is not the case in Gold yet. It is why I will wait until the trend is confirmed before buying and which is why I end up with the middle bit of the trend that I trade. I will never get in at the bottom or sell at the top.
  22. @elle, Yes I agree. The trend strength has declined which one would expect after the recent sharp rise. In my personal opinion the thing that is stopping any further rise in Gold is due to capital being allocated to equity markets hence their recent rise after the large drop. It is when that very capital leaves equity markets and a small amount of that ends up in Gold is when the really large rise will come. If equity markets continue rising then I fear that Gold could price could begin another decline.
  23. Venezuela is in dire trouble. Raised minimum wage for about the 6th time in recent times to around 18000 Bolivar. It is hugely dependant on oil and the Petro has been a farce. Oil, Copper and Lumber prices are very important indicators and barometers of economic conditions which can potentially paint a picture of what could come next. This is why paying particular attention to where we are in certain commodity cycles can help us plan any strategies for equity markets going forwards from a long term investment perspective rather than short term trading perspective.
  24. @Caseynotes, I saw a similar article. Very interesting. 👍🏾
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