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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. The longer the US-China trade talks continue and the longer the matter is unclear and lingers on, the major US markets will not begin a major sell off. This will only happen once the US-China trade deal is confirmed. Up until then there will be plenty of buying, speculation and anticipation driving up US indices at at the very least sideways. The major shorting opportunity that some of us here on IG have been waiting for can only begin once the positive news is out of the way. Still no trend reversal or confirmation via price action to initiate a 'short' trade from a trend following perspective.
  2. @OceansJess, In terms of trading Gold you may wish to start off by just monitoring the price action of Gold. Just live and breathe the price behaviour of Gold so that you are fully in tune with it. Identify what happens on days it goes down and what drives it to go up. Then try and look at how you would enter and exit such a trade. What would be the better entry points? Look at oscillators and see if you can use them to try and execute better entry points. Also at the same time try and understand the fundamentals for Gold. Understand the supply and demand of the hard metal and the production and mining of Gold. Research Gold's historical performance and establish how it has reacted in the past. This by no means is a guarantee that it will behave the same going forwards but you get a more rounded knowledge on the asset to help you make an informed decision on whether to trade it, invest in it or neither.
  3. US indices are looking a bit toppy. The upward trend is looking exhausted and waiting for either positive / negative news. The US indices keep enticing potential short sellers and teasing them but the market is ruthless and its price will behave like one least expects hence why 81% of IG's retail customers lose money when using CFD and Spread Betting Call me cynical but the could the US Federal Reserve keep propping up US markets? They may know what a disastrous outcome it could be if they did not. Everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet — and how it could impact you https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/federal-reserve-balance-sheet/ The US Federal Reserve is rather vague when it comes to clearly outlining its plan for reducing its balance sheet and ending a decade long QE programme.
  4. @Caseynotes, yes it was an interesting idea and I could see you logic behind it. There has been a small healthy correction and Gold is trading $1328 at the time of this post which is down from the $1341 levels. I do think there is another leg up to come very soon as US indices are looking a bit 'exhausted' from a trending perspective and they are clearly waiting for news either positive or negative to steer them to their next destination. If the destination is downwards and it is a quick sharp move then I can see Gold providing a quick sharp trend upwards. What is interesting about this particular Gold trend since August 2018 is that it has moved up along with US indices moving upwards albeit a strong drop in this journey. There is a myth that Gold and the US Dollar cannot rise together and that Gold only goes up when the US Dollar is weak. There are instances when both the US Dollar and Gold have risen together and when some of you may want to look at what happened to Gold when this last occurred. I shall leave it at that. Suspense!
  5. @yogitree, I know this sounds obvious but did you actually ring and try and speak to someone at IG? For example customer services? What about messaging them or sending them an e-mail? If all fails then I will copy @JamesIG into this post and see if he may be able to assist. He usually is very good and prompt and if he will not be able to assist then he may know who can.
  6. At the moment Silver's chart is more similar to Platinum's than Gold's. Gold's chart is more similar to Palladium's than Silver's though Palladium has totally outperformed Gold over the last 12 months.
  7. @Pikto, When it comes to trading I can only comment on what I am doing. I am trading Gold and Silver on the 'long' side using IG's Spread Betting platform. This allows me to trade them both tax efficiently and with the use of leverage. Once in profit then you can initiate a trailing stop. Silver tends to outperform Gold in a strong bull market in terms of returns but the margin requirements are more attractive on Gold than Silver, especially when Silver tends to follow Gold and Gold generally takes the lead. This is more true when you look at the daily points increase on both. Using leverage on Gold by x2 still makes it cheaper than Silver on x1 if Silver's daily point increase is around 50% more than Gold.
  8. @OceansJess, No problem. Yes getting familiar with trends is a very good idea. Yes it is tricky. In fact it is very difficult and yes there is a lot to learn. If you put in the effort, have dedication, passion and enthusiasm then it will certainly help you when trying to read, research and learn.
  9. @Pikto, Investing and trading are both very different. You specifically use the word invest and I do not invest in Gold. In fact I do not like Gold as an asset. The only time I have invested in Gold is over 10 years ago via physical storage through BullionVault. I also invested in many years ago Merryl Lynch Gold & General which then became Blackrock Gold and General and JP Morgan Natural Resources. However, I have not held such investments for many years now. At this moment I am trading both Gold and Silver using IG's Spread Betting account. I am trading them on the 'long' side based on an upward trend and its price action. I cannot recommend any investments in Gold as I do not invest in Gold myself and I feel there are far more better investments to make over a 5, 10 and 20 year period which will outperform any Gold investment. You need to know what your investment timescale is? You need to research the different investment options in Gold and look at the performance variances between them all and conduct a contrast and compare exercise. You need to be clear on what your reasons are for wanting to invest in Gold? Why Gold over other assets and investments? The more riskier play in Gold is small Gold mining companies. I personally do not like them as far too high risk with liquidity issues. There are larger Gold producers that may even pay dividends but again I do not invest in Gold directly so I cannot really suggest any recommendation. It would be like recommending a book that I have not read or a film that I have not watched.
  10. @Caseynotes, Yes I read that very point this morning. There may be selling after the minutes tonight but equally Silver has not caught up yet so I really do not know. Put it this way if after the minutes Gold and Silver continue rising and do the opposite of what is being reported by various media sources then game on.
  11. @elle, Excellent post. Totally agree. There is no reason to short either Gold or Silver right now based on price action. There is no bend in the trend which has appeared on this recent upward move. When it does then @Caseynotessuggestion may be worth consideration albeit with slight differing sell and stop.
  12. Exhaustion of the upward trend? Or will it simply resume after this pause for breath?
  13. I read a very interesting article today. I cannot remember the source which is frustrating but I hope you all understand with the amount of reading I do full stop! 😴 It can be tiring. Anyway made me think about my historical thoughts on Bitcoin becoming the new Digital Gold. The article was stating that Bitcoin will never be able to replace Gold but it may create a special position in becoming the Digital Gold of the Cryptocurrency asset class. There will be so many tokens and cryptocurrencies going forwards that Bitcoin will become the 'Gold Standard' of the Cryptocurrency universe rather than the Fiat currency universe. This notion has legs in my opinion and it has made me seriously question Bitcoin's place as an asset and its value. Its value will be in its stability within the Crypto space in years to come. It is far too volatile at the moment and is not ready to take that mantle but in 5 years time it may well be.
  14. @Caseynotes, I can see your logic behind such a suggestion but not for me. I am long both Gold and Silver and if anything will add on any corrections as long as the trend upwards is in tact. Also I do not want to go against this very strong and bullish trend upwards. I also do not want to be clever and contrarian and try and fight against a trend which is in full flow. Most time traders trade against a trend they will end up with losing trades on balance of probability and odds.
  15. @Caseynotes, They call Copper - Dr Copper. Its price can be a barometer for the health of the economy. It is also rather good at predicting turning points in major global economies.
  16. @elle, yes that is right and the price action supports this stance.
  17. @elle, Would you be kind enough to expand?
  18. @OceansJess, Yes you are right. Gold is doing something and that is going up in price since August 2018. It is making new 'higher lows' and new 'higher highs'. The trend is firmly upwards and it would be a good time to consider going long but you may wish to wait until the next drop/correction for a better entry point but that is your decision to make. You can by all means ask your friend who bought the physical gold and establish what they actually know about Gold? Where do they store it and what are the costs associated with the physical purchase and storage? In terms of how high Gold will go then no one can answer this question and certainly not me. None of us have a crystal ball and none of us can predict the future. In my personal opinion I think it will clear $1350 short term. Medium term it will clear $1355.91 but long term I do not know. It could go as high as it wants depending on the economic events that take shape around the world. From my personal experience big bullish trends love psychological points and round numbers to surpass so longer term $1500.00 could be a target should things get worse around the world. For me it is just about letting my winners run and only exiting once the trend has firmly reversed and not until then.
  19. Wow Gold finished strongly on around $1240 level. I sense it will hit $1250 very quickly.
  20. I would like to see Bitcoin test $6470 level. The one thing to see now is whether the price behaviour of Bitcoin allows it to make new higher lows and new higher highs. Though I am not a fan of Gold (disclaimer - am trading both Gold and Silver at the moment) it shows an excellent example of a trend emerging (still in strong play) creating lovely higher lows and higher highs as it trended upwards. That is what I would like to see in Bitcoin but I still fear there could be one more large correction to come.
  21. @Caseynotes, I agree with your US macro sentiment. It looks like the sideways activity that I assumed is beginning to show signs of possibility. I agree that the US-China trade situation is going to move the US indices one way or the other and we should find out in the coming weeks. I do think that the upward trend is weakening and seems exhausted. It may give one final push before pausing before any critical news that moves it strongly either up or down.
  22. @cryptotrader, The longer term downtrend in Ether and other Cryptocurrencies is still firmly in play and we have all seen such rallies before. For Ether, the 100 and 200 DMA are sloping 'sharply downwards'. The 50 DMA is sloping sideways and the 20 DMA is beginning to slope upwards. For me this may be a short term relief rally but the price action will tell us very soon.
  23. @cryptotrader, You may wish to have a look at this article from the Guardian: UK house prices fall at fastest rate in six years on back of Brexit – Rics https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years-on-back-of-brexit-rics You may also wish to read this articles below too: UK house prices: Brexit wipes 25 per cent off value in wealthiest areas https://inews.co.uk/news/uk-house-prices-brexit-latest-property-market-values/ How a no-deal Brexit will affect house prices, according to property experts https://inews.co.uk/opinion/comment/no-deal-brexit-how-affect-house-prices-uk-consequences-explained/ UK has not officially even hit a recession yet. UK has not officially concluded Brexit yet. This is just merely based on uncertainty and anticipation of negativity. Also the tax rules on Buy-To-Let has changed meaning what was a very attractive prospect now is not as attractive. I am not suggesting that houses prices will definitely drop. The simple truth is I do not know. However if I wanted to invest in a property investment trust then I would want to get some serious value so that I can maximise my capital growth and for this I would want to see the bottom (from charts) confirmed and an uptrend before investing my hard earned capital into such an investment vehicle for real estate.
  24. @psycho, I am responding to your Bullion Vault question on another thread in my own thread which I created as I do not want to clash with the creators of other threads. I have strong opinions and I am not scared to post them even when I may be wrong. To answer your question, yes I would have conducted some form of due diligence back in 2006 - 2008 period where I invested in Gold via Bullion Vault. From memory I paid charges for them storing it so I never took physical delivery. This was a long time ago so I hope you can appreciate my sketchy memory! They are a big player in this industry and in my opinion at the time reliable and trustworthy. I cannot comment about recent reputation as I have not used them for over 10 years. I am sure they have got bigger and more reputable but you would have to check.
  25. There you go Silver has woke up and now following Gold’s lead. As the margin requirements are higher on Silver than Gold (more or less double) rather than trade both one could trade Gold with increased leverage.
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