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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Kodiak, I think it depends on what assets you look at. One could argue that May has been an excellent month for Cryptocurrencies this year. Bonds have performed rather well too in May. I am not a big fan on any particular month and whether one should buy or sell in it. I think you just take each asset and the price action and decide whether to 'Short' or go 'Long. If there is any merit in this selling in May notion and people believe this then they would know what to do. Short those assets in May and profit, right?
  2. @PandaFace, Tesla is an interesting one. I will start off by looking at the 'monthly' chart which shows a support area. If I then switch to the 'weekly' then it seems like there could be some further downside risk and it seems like a 'falling knife' scenario where it is highly probable that investors are taking profits and selling and also it is being shorted too. I have not looked at the short positions on Tesla so it is only an assumption but it seems highly probable without looking that Tesla is being shorted. If we then switch to the 'daily' then you will see a critical price point coming around the $18000 area. So is Tesla a potential value investing opportunity once the carnage and selling is finished? It could be depending on how it performs going forwards and whether it can stop the phenomonal cash burning which has been taking place for a while now. Depending on which reports you read (credibility issues and bias) then some report that autonomous driving will reduce accidents when compared with real drivers. It is reported (not saying it is accurate) that 90% of drivers involved in accidents are down to human driver error. So driverless cars will still be involved in accidents but it should be far less than if human's are driving. If one believes this vision then Tesla could present an excellent value investment proposition once the bearishness has finished. Of course cash burn and Tesla actually breaking even and making profits in the future will be crucial to any investment performance going forwards.
  3. @Foxy, Oh don't worry about that. No one can push me into a trade that I am not comfortable with or meets my criteria. It is my hard earned capital that I am investing after all. To be honest I tend to use profits from my investing side to allocate to trading but it is still hard earned regardless. Every trade is potential as when we enter we cannot be 100% sure the trade will follow our assumption. That is the only reason why I use the 'potential' label. Also potential as some may not agree or see it as a trade worth participating so it is only a trade some would consider. I follow trend following principles but I have tweaked them to suit my personality, mindset, risk tolerance, etc. I agree labels are difficult as you could argue that I adopt several trading methods but in principle they are more closely aligned to trend following principles. I have no label for your trading style, I was just wondering so it was nice of you to explain. Yes it is quite an active thread as Gold is one of those well known assets which has lower margin requirements to trade so it is quite popular. Also it is far less volatile than other assets so I appreciate why some traders would look to trade Gold. I am not saying they are the only reasons why this is a popular thread but it may be part of it. Entry and Exits are important parts of any trading strategy. We will all have different signals and indicators that we use and there is no right or wrong. There are many ways of 'skinning a cat'.
  4. Can The Supply Chain Be Improved By Blockchain? https://cryptodaily.co.uk/2019/05/can-the-supply-chain-be-improved-by-blockchain
  5. Below are some interesting developments in this space for this asset class. Samsung Pay Could Soon Be Adding Cryptocurrency Integration https://beincrypto.com/samsung-pay-could-soon-be-adding-cryptocurrency-integration/ Facebook will reportedly launch cryptocurrency 'GlobalCoin' in 2020 https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-cryptocurrency-launching-globalcoin-in-2020-2019-5?r=US&IR=T This is demonstrating that large worldwide institutions like Samsung and Facebook are considering both Crypto and Blockchain. It is only once the large institutions are on board will it trickle downwards but this is one of the important layers when it comes to integration and will take some years. There is no guarantee of success but if the large corporations adopt both Crypto and Blockchain then it will have an impact in their supply chains and so their customers and suppliers will end up embracing it. It will only then trickle downwards to the mid sized and smaller businesses. This is a very long term process and could take many years.
  6. @Foxy, Yes I meant Feb. We cannot trade everything (well I can't anyway) so I try and identify the strongest trending assets. If in the future Gold is one of those then I shall trade it and if it not then I will not. Gold was a strong trending asset at that particular time. Gold right now seems to be making 'Lower Highs' and 'Lower Lows' which is rather bearish so one could argue that this is a 'Short' trade but I accept your premise on Gold arriving at its long term channel upwards which makes shorting tricky right now. I think more aggressive traders would already be short Gold and will be profiting. I agree we do not know how long the trend will last and how strong it will be. If you enter too early and they are false breakouts then you risk continuous stop losses being triggered resulting in losses. It all depends on your trading strategy and your trading perspective. From a 'Trend Following' perspective it is about catching the middle of the trend. So trend followers will not enter in at the lowest price or sell at the highest price. They will try and be involved in the middle part of the trend. They will cut losses short and let their winners run. So no price targets. They will hold their position until the trend reverses. What is your trading perspective / style?
  7. @JamesIG, The link below shows the current Cryptocurrencies in order of their market cap. https://coinmarketcap.com What is interesting is that both IOTA and Cosmos (huge potential in my opinion) are ahead of Neo which IG offers. I think IG should consider removing Neo (if there is very little demand) and replacing it with IOTA but especially Cosmos. It would be nice for IG to offer say Cosmos (before it spikes up in price) rather than afterwards. I accept the liquidity and hedging scenario for IG but it would still be nice.
  8. @dmedin, The downward correction has already began. The aggressive trend traders would have entered 'Short' once the 20 DMA was breached downwards. The next wave of trend traders would have entered 'Short' once the 50 DMA was breached downwards. The 'daily' is showing the price at the 100 DMA area. If this was breached then you will see more entering 'Short' with the potential direction towards the 200 DMA. However, it may not play out that way and those late to the party (and I was when I started this post) could end up watching as those entering early leave with profits and those entering late are left with losses.
  9. @Foxy, I agree with your sentiment. I mean since December it should have been the 'Potential Short Gold Trade' but how many threads does one open? I agree that Gold was overbought and this may well have involved speculative capital. The move in Gold did not seem sustainable so a correction like we have witnessed was inevitable. At the moment Gold could either continue downwards or trade in a sideways range. Gold will need fundamental drivers to push it upwards for another 'Long' rally and create 'Technicals' that support a potential 'Long' Gold trade. Those who were 'Long' Gold would have had their stop losses triggered and they would have exited that trade. Now whether they chose to short Gold or stay away was a decision up to them. At the moment there technicals do not support a 'Long' trade just yet. The 200 DMA is sloping upwards which in my view is a bullish long term indicator. The 50 DMA is sloping downwards which is a short term bearish indicator. So the direction is starting to become unclear as to what will happen in the coming weeks and months. I think it will be economic and political news driven.
  10. @Foxy, It all depends on if there are any other stronger trending assets at the time. So it is a possibility should Gold see an uptrend but I cannot say 100% I will if there were far better profit opportunities elsewhere. A lot would depend on the state of Equities, Risk Appetite, general risks around the world and any political tensions. If things were getting very negative and ugly around the world then it could create an environment where Gold could see a monster move but none of us know this is going to happen or not so would just see at the time. @dmedin, I actually profited from my 'Long' Gold trade and 'Long Silver' trade. So I was not one of them who got burned. When my trades go into profit, I then switch to a 'Trailing Stop'. This ensure that I do not lose on those trades and am guaranteed to exit with a profit.
  11. @dmedin, I agree with not overanalysing. I do not agree that a lot of it comes down to luck. The more time and effort a trader puts in will increase their chances. If they can devise a sound trading plan, create an effective trading strategy and use a very good trading system, they can increase their chances of success. If a trader is able to identify the strongest trending assets. Is then able to trade them in the direction of the trend (not against) and maximise their profits more times than not then this is not luck especially over a number of years. This is then increasing the odds and probability in their favour of executing profitable trades which for me takes a lot of hard work and is not lucky. Lucky is the gambler who just places a trade on an asset with the hope of making a profit without putting hardly any effort in or any work done to make that trading decision. Luck runs out. How long do you think a lucky traders trading capital would last? The answer is not very long. They would not be able to survive for long.
  12. @dmedin, There may be some full time traders here on the IG Community, I don't know. I am not a full time trader so I can only speak for myself. You do make an important point which is that technical analysis is based on historical activity. It cannot accurately forecast or predict the future though I accept some patterns have repeated themselves over the course of history on certain assets. This cannot be ignored. I think trading has a lot to do with anticipation and assumption based modelling. When a trader anticipates, they will begin to form and make assumptions. They will then test these assumptions by placing trades. I keep my trading very simple. What I would like to know is whether complicated trading can make more profits than simple trading. I will never know that answer here as I would not discuss my personal trading details here on such a forum and nor would any other person one would assume. I am not convinced that someone applying high level technical analysis, charts , complex theories can outperform someone who does not. Profit maximisation is a key fundamental to a profitable and ultimately a successful trader. Risk management and capital protection strategies will ensure that a trader keeps their losses to a minimum. This is very important. Capital protection is vital for SURVIVAL. That does not necessarily make them a successful or profitable trader. It is the trader who can identify and trade the right asset at the right time and maximise the amount of profit from trading that particular trend either 'Long' or 'Short' more often than not which is the KEY factor in my personal opinion. A trader that does not trade certain assets because of their personal views will miss out on some big profit making trading potential. A trader must be able to identity the strongest trending assets and then be able to trade them both 'Long' and 'Short'. This could be a Cryptocurrency, a Commodity, a Share, an Index, etc. Now there could be occasions when a couple of Cryptocurrencies and a few Commodities happen to be the strongest trending so the trader would allocate their capital to those trades. So to give an example. Someone trading say Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash since the start of the year could have outperformed someone who has an excellent trading system, is very intelligence and applies complex technical analysis because they were trading a weaker trending asset and the profit potential on Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash using leverage would achieve far greater levels of profits than the weaker trending assets. They could have just placed a trading using simple moving averages to make a decision and still beat the high level technical analysis traders. This is assuming both had the same level of starting capital. Capital allocation when trading is crucial and if it is allocated effectively and efficiently with profit potential and profit maximisation in mind then it can make a big difference in a traders financial results at the end of the year. Missing out on the strongest and biggest trends will make it difficult for traders to have any level of decent performance as there will be plenty of losses on the way when the trades have gone against you. Complexity does not necessarily lead to better performance. All it means is that person may have a higher level of intelligence when dealing with mathematics, charts, analysis, etc. I know a lot of very wealthy and intelligent people but they could not invest or trade to save their lives. They would not have a clue. A trader needs inner strength and a certain type of personality. It is not for everyone and those who do not make it may lack it. Reading and research is a must. Understanding what is happening and why as asset price is behaving is very important. Fundamental analysis can be just as important as technical analysis and I think a fusion of them both can help. So when Orange Juice and Lumber had positive price there was a background story running as to why. It is understanding that why and linking it to the price action which can really help the trader understand the asset they are looking to trade.
  13. I am someone who is passionate about Swiss watches and have been for many years now. I find them fascinating. There are certain Swiss watches which are excellent investments. They are something you can wear and enjoy and they appreciate in value (only certain models of course). When there is a recession or economies are struggling around the world, their price appreciation (certain models) is astounding. Now I also have a keen interest in the Blockchain space from an investment perspective too. So when the two areas are collaborating and aligning then of course I am going to be interested. I am going to share a couple of articles which demonstrate what is happening at the moment for those who may be interested. WATCHES OF DISTINCTION TRACKED ON THE BLOCKCHAIN https://icoexaminer.com/ico-news/watches-of-distinction-tracked-on-the-blockchain/ World’s Oldest Watch Manufacturer to Use Blockchain for Tracking Timepieces https://cointelegraph.com/news/uk-financial-watchdog-warns-public-of-crypto-clone-firm Swiss Watchmaker Franck Muller Launches ‘Functional’ Bitcoin Timepiece https://www.coindesk.com/swiss-watchmaker-franck-muller-launches-functional-bitcoin-timepiece
  14. Bitcoin Cash is one the potential benefactors of a general improvement in market sentiment for the Cryptocurrency asset class. It is one of the better performers along with Litecoin since the start of the year.
  15. Those of you who follow my threads will appreciate that I keep things simple taking into account the wider IG Community and my potential audience on this platform. There will be some of you who apply more technical analysis on Cryptocurrencies but I just keep it simple and primarily based on price action and trends. It seems to have worked for me so far. Now Litecoin is up around 200% since the start of the year. Can anyone show me an asset they could have traded or indeed have traded in this same time period which would have delivered better returns? Litecoin at the start of 2019 was trading around the $20 - $30 range. It is now above $100. There are times when one must the fundamentals, one's personal views, emotions and stubbornness to one side and trade the price action in front of us and try and profit from it as much as possible. This is regardless of what our personal opinions, thoughts and feelings may be of a particular asset. Trading at times requires a level of ruthlessness. The best football strikers in the world are ruthless finishers. They anticipate the potential of a pass and will make the run and if the ball is delivered then they will have a good chance to score. Trading requires this anticipation. It requires making a move based on the current price action and what is likely (not guaranteed of course) is going to happen next. The trader will then execute the trade and attempt to profit regardless of what the media is reporting, what others are stating, etc. The Litecoin 'halving' is going to occur before Bitcoin's. It is going to occur this year and Bitcoin's next year. I accept this may attract a lot of speculators, gamblers, etc. This may well pump the price to levels not sustainable and create yet another bubble. But one must embrace any bubbles as they are fantastic opportunities to profit from inefficiencies in the pricing of an asset.
  16. KR1 PLC is another company which is the blockchain space and blockchain is gathering some real momentum and traction at the moment. The share is listed on the NEX Exchange where generally stocks are illiquid. It seems that the large decline has occurred in line with the broader Cryptocurrency market. It seems the consolidation period has occurred. There has been recent upside and this could potentially be just the start. I stress potentially and the fundamentals may not translate into share price appreciation. From a value investing perspective it seems like an attractive entry point for those who were not savvy enough to enter near its lows. I want to share the following recent article in relation to this company below: KR1 aims to capitalise on blockchain revolution https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/220238/kr1-aims-to-capitalise-on-blockchain-revolution-220238.html Another article I want to share is in line with the previous post I submitted on this thread. KR1 Plc 'thrilled' investment in Cosmos beginning to generate 'significant' yield https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/13367/kr1-plc--thrilled--investment-in-cosmos-beginning-to-generate--significant--yield-13367.html Now in the grand scheme of things this is a very tiny company (acorn one could argue). It is not a small cap. It is even smaller. It not a micro cap. It is even smaller. It is a 'Nano Cap'. Therefore it is extremely high risk and is operating in a niche area. This is not an investment to be considered for those who do not have an understanding of the potential and the great risks associated in investing in this area along with the high level of risk tolerance required. For those who do have an interest / passion and knowledge in this area may be interested in such a company.
  17. The blockchain space is beginning to gain real momentum and traction. Coinsilium listed on the NEX Exchange is a company with real potential going forwards. I must stress it is real potential so that may not translate into share price appreciation but from a value investing perspective it seems like an entry point consideration period. The decline has occurred in line with the Cryptocurrency market in general. It seems to be in a consolidation period. I must point out that companies listed on the NEX Exchange are generally illiquid stock so one must be aware of this. I am going to share a recent article that may help those interested in the space and this company in particular. Coinsilium “exceptionally well positioned” as blockchain space matures https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/220446/coinsilium-exceptionally-well-positioned-as-blockchain-space-matures-220446.html
  18. Litecoin seems to be the least down this morning so it is showing some strength and resilience but for how long who knows. It is still trade above the $100 mark which is encouraging but can it hold that level?
  19. Bitcoin Cash is still above the $400 which is encouraging. Bitcoin Cash's price is above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. Its 20, 50 and 100 DMA curves are sloping upwards which is bullish. It seems its 200 DMA curve is beginning to show a sideways position which is slowly reducing the risk of a big downside move though it can still happen of course. The 200 DMA curve sloping upwards would be a bullish long term trend indicator.
  20. Bitcoin seems to have resistance at around the $8000 - $8200 range. If it breaks through then it is going to be when traders least expect it. So what ends up happening is that traders have been stopped out due to the extreme volatility and are not in the position when the sharp upward move comes thus missing out. There also seems to be support in the $7000 - $7700 so any drop in this zone may be a potential entry point for those who have not entered or do not already have a trading position in Bitcoin. Of course the risk remains that this goes down to the $6k to $6.7k levels but Bitcoin seems to be bullish, seems to have momentum, the trend is strong, the chart and technicals are showing 'positive bias' towards an upward move.
  21. Bitcoin is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA and is over $8000 at the time of writing this post. You will have heard me mention about the 'Upward Sloping Curves' for the Moving Averages. Well the 20, 50 and 100 DMA's curves have been sloping upwards for a while now which is a bullish indicator. However, what has started to happen (and this can only be spotted if you monitor the price action daily) is that the 200 DMA is beginning to look like it could may begin to start sloping upwards. This will be a very bullish long term indicator. I include the chart below to illustrate this point. Now trading Cryptocurrencies is extremely high risk due to the extreme volatility. However if you can monitor the price action and look at certain basic indicators to help provide you with signals to use then it can be as simple as you want it to be. If you look at the chart below then you will see an increase in the volume both on the upward moves and the downward moves which supports the current price action both (upwards and downwards). Bitcoin is looking more likely to try for $10,000 than it is to try for $1000 or zero in my personal opinion. Of course this is Bitcoin and it could drop to $7k or even $6.5k over the course of just a few days with large drops so nerves of steel is required and a high tolerance to volatility and risk is needed.
  22. Bitcoin Cash is up nearly 4% and is performing around 1% higher than Bitcoin at the moment. It is around the $424 area. Bitcoin Cash is another Cryptocurrency which seems to have another leg upwards in the locker if it can be unlocked.
  23. Litecoin is up 16% and I think it really is going to be the one to watch prior to the August 'halving' as I have mentioned in my previous posts in this thread.
  24. @johnt4917, @nit2wynit, @dmedin, Different traders can have different strategies and still all be successful depending on how one defines success. A lot of traders define success as having more winning trades than losing trades. My strategy incurs at times more losing trades than winning trades. However, the key measurement of how I personally define success is to ensure that the profit from my winning trades is greater than the losses on my losing trades. A consistently profitable trader could be deemed as having a successful trading strategy if this is demonstrated over many years. Some traders who consistently make higher profits than others over many years could be deemed as having a more successful trading strategy. So if for example I trade 10 times and 7 are losing trades and 3 are winning trades then that is a 70% failure rate and 30% success rate. Now some may deem this as an unsuccessful trading strategy. Now what if the profits on my 30% of winning trades were far greater than the losses on the 70% of my losing trades. If this was achieved consistently over many years then it changes the dynamic of how one thinks about a successful trading strategy. Your personality, mind set and psychological approach to trading has a big influence on the type of trading strategy one ends up being more comfortable with and adopting. It is about finding the right trading strategy that suits you (we are all different) and then really fine tuning it to ensure it meets your trading goals and objectives. Once this is understood then one will quickly realise that there is no professional or amateur on IG Community but just traders. Some will be more experienced that others. Some will apply far more complex trading methods and conduct far more technical and challenging analysis. However, this does not mean they are more profitable or are making greater profits than those who are not.
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