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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. The result on the Brexit vote will be known after U.K. time 7:00 pm so It will be interesting to see how the major indices around the world react and in particular the U.K., Europe and US. Also how prices for safe haven assets and bonds react. If we are to see world stock markets decline and I don’t know if they will then the smart money will start allocating capital to Bonds and Gold. If they already have even a small exposure to Bonds and Gold then they will be increasing their exposure to such asset classes within their portfolios in my opinion. As always I will let the price action confirm or reject my assumptions. Assumption testing can be very valuable even if your assumptions are rejected when modelling any trading strategy and carrying out any forward testing. A lot of people give significance to back testing their trading strategies but I think it is extremely important to include forward testing as well before letting your trading strategy loose!
  2. @theshidoshi, There you go. Well done. I use several different platforms and brokers within my investment and trading portfolio. It also helps to diversify your wealth rather than have it all in one broker account. Also some platforms will be better in certain areas than others.
  3. I was reading an interesting piece in Reuters today where it mentioned the three reasons why Gold may be about to see a bull market. It was suggesting that countries like India and China were providing strong physical demand as one of the reasons. The second reason it was suggesting was that central banks were making robust purchases. Finally the third reason it was suggesting was an increasing demand for Gold as a 'safe haven' investment. These were the reasons behind the previous gold rally back in 2008 and it seems similar signs are appearing. If this is the case then it could increase the level of speculation for Gold and trend followers could begin appearing leading to 'herd behaviour' which is great for traders who get in early into trades when large, strong and long trends play out. A weak US Dollar added to the mix provides a platform for Gold to 'shine'. Now potential economic slowdown, recessions, interest rate rises, etc. all cause the potential for Gold to appreciate in price more probable. Now you have the US Government shutdown and Brexit cause uncertainty in the US and UK also adding to a potential shift in capital into precious metals. In India it is approaching the wedding season which is usually sees heavy demand for Gold. Apparently both China and India are seeing a 10% rise in demand of Gold from this time last year. The price action will react depending on how the above scenarios play out.
  4. As the country awaits the voting on the Brexit deal it will be rather interesting to see how the FTSE 100 and other UK indices behave as well as the safe haven 'Gold' in tomorrow's session and the overnight session throughout the night.
  5. My stop loss was triggered on my short Natural Gas trade. I made near enough 1000 points. I am out. Carbon Emissions is looking like a potential short trade though it could just as easily pop upwards so a very tricky trade to enter at this period in my opinion. Natural Gas has risen sharply due to the longer than expected cold weather to remain in the US so there is a fundamental backdrop which has created the price action today. When fundamentals meet technicals it can create wonderful trends. The question is whether it is worth now considering a 'long' Natural Gas trade? Natural Gas has gone above its 20 DMA and is moving upward towards it 100 DMA. Around the 3800 price level would see it hit its 50 DMA. What is interesting is that it has gone above its 200 DMA. The MA curves are sloping sideways to downwards so I personally would not enter the 'long' Natural Gas trade but short term traders and more speculative traders may consider it as well as the more aggressive day traders and shorter term trend followers.
  6. So where am I with this live trade at the moment? The current performance update is below: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 is down 66 points. The trade is just hanging in there. Daily charges are being incurred so any further rally will see my stop loss triggered and I shall be out of the trade. If the price continues to move downwards like it seems to be then the trade will remain open though I may manually intervene should the trend not be strong enough or begin to lose momentum. My experience tells me that the recent bottom should/could be revisited and tested but IG's daily charges make it difficult to hold such a position and also there is no guarantee (high probability) of that at this stage. I am keeping close eyes on this trade and I may need to manually intervene and exit should the downtrend not continue strongly. There is no justification of paying daily charges when the trend is not strong enough in the direction of my trade. When the US markers open this afternoon (UK time) it should be interesting.
  7. So where are we with my live Gold and Silver trades? The current update is as below: Long Trade in Silver up 92 points Long Trade in Gold up 46 points  Remember I have not profited from either of these trades until I actually physically take the profits. These are just mere paper profits at the moment. Also I must take the IG daily interest charges from any profits to get more accurate profit figures.
  8. This was released via RNS this morning: KR1 plc Launch of KRX Ltd in Gibraltar https://www.investegate.co.uk/kr1-plc--kr1-/prn/launch-of-krx-ltd-in-gibraltar/20190114110000P2A48/
  9. This has just been released today via RNS by Coinsilium: Coinsilium Group Limited Strategic Business Update https://www.investegate.co.uk/coinsilium-group-limited--coin-/eqs/strategic-business-update/20190114070014ESASK/
  10. @AbDXB1345, You will not have perfected a strategy. Trust me. Even the professionals do not have a perfect strategy. What you possibly may have is an effective strategy based on your level of risk and money management. The demo account is one thing but trading in the real markets is a different beast altogether which I am sure you are about to experience. If someone said to me that your trading strategy would make a profit every single week or a trading strategy that would make a profit some weeks but losses on some weeks then which trading strategy would you select? Now if in the second example the profits far exceeded the losses and those profits were greater than the first strategy, now which would you pick? The point I am trying to make is that making losses is part of trading. One must accept them. Of course one wants to minimise those losses but they are part of trading.
  11. @Kodiak, That means you must look at your stop loss strategy. If you are trading a strong trend (volatility occurs in all trading assets) and if your stop loss is too tight and you keep on getting stopped out then the winner is the broker not you. If you have selected the correct trend which is strong and you are trading with the trend then you must have an effective stop loss strategy. You may want to revisit your risk management and have a look at position size, how much you are willing to risk on each trade based on your risk tolerance and try and come up with a more effective stop loss mechanism that eliminates this issue but at the same time does not increase your overall losses in your trading account. I must make it clear that it is about trading the strongest trends (which tend to be bubbles, hype, frenzy, speculation) etc. I love those types of trends and one must not fear them but embrace them. They are the trends that will make the biggest profits. The weaker the trend you trade the harder it is to have a sound stop loss strategy as volatility will stop you out. It is how your trading system deals with volatility which will be key.
  12. @dmedin, In all of the humour added by @Caseynotes there is a very important point. A point that must be understood. First of all, spread betting is merely a vehicle to use to get to a destination. There are other vehicles available and it is your personal choice which vehicle you choose. For example if I want to invest in a company for the long term then I use a different broker to IG. If I want to trade a trend either 'long' or 'short' then I use IG's Spread Betting account. Why do I use Spread Betting? Well the two main reasons are the use of leverage and the other is that profits are free from Capital Gains Tax making it a tax efficient way of trading. Now the two reasons I have highlighted are totally irrelevant if you are either a bad trader or a good trader using a bad trading strategy when using Spread Betting. I will try and identify strong trends to trade using Spread Betting. Trading with the trend is crucial on Spread Betting. The stronger the trend the better. So it is not just about spotting a trend. 'Trend Strength', 'Momentum' and other indicators have to align to try and give you the best chance of a profitable trade. The amount of traders I have come across on just this IG Community alone that do not have the following is staggering: Trading Plan Trading Strategy Trading System Now without the above the odds are going to be against you and the probability of success diminishes. Also it is not just above having the three points above but they must be effective and efficient in trading the markets. Spread Betting is not gambling. It is merely a trading platform. Gambling is using trade capital to trade without an effective trading plan, without an effective trading strategy and without an effective trading system. It is the individual that gambles not IG's Spread Betting platform. An ineffective trader could invest thousands of pounds on a share in the hope that it recovers or goes up. If the share price continues falling and that trader loses thousands of pounds then it is the trader who is the gambler and it does not matter if they used a traditional share broker, invested via an ETF, bought a mutual fund or traded using a CFD or Spread Betting account. It is the actions of the trader that is the issue and at fault. Once you have a defined trading plan, a clear trading strategy which can be executed and a trading system capable of delivering the objectives of the trading plan then you will decide which platform or structure to use for your trading / investing. So the platform that you use will be dependant on your trading plan, trading strategy and trading system. Now guess what? If you have no trading plan, trading strategy and trading system then how can you pick the most effective trading platform to use? How can you come to the decision that a Spread Betting account is better than a traditional Share Broking account? How can you determine that CFD is better than a Spread Betting account? @Caseynotes, put the point across in a lovely humorous way and I have tried to put the point across in a more serious way and hopefully both will resonate with most types of readers here on IG Community.
  13. @elle, That is the inference I make from your post. You are right we must wait to see what happens next. It may well be that the price begins declining as per historical behaviour but it could be that it creates a 'new history'. Time and price action will tell us very shortly. When fundamentals align with price action then I believe one must put aside historical behaviour as new price behaviour is created. Gold has the potential for this but it may not fulfil this potential. It may be the Gold reverts back to historical movements.
  14. The US 500 is just not powering through 2600 yet though it has tried and had a few attempts recently. Next week should give us a more clearer direction of the S&P 500. I think one of the reasons why it did not power through is that no real substance or clear progression was announced supported by anything. Add the US shutdown at the moment and one may begin to understand why. What I do not know at this moment is how Tueday's Brexit vote will impact not just the UK markers but other markets around the world. It may have not impact at all or it could have bigger impacts than we all realise. I just do not know at this moment in time as I have read reports highlighting both sides but I do not really think anyone knows for sure. We will find out next week and I think next week is going to be another volatile trading week where indices are concerned.
  15. @JamesIG, First of all, thank you. I think this will assist many traders to identify certain trades which they can seriously consider trading. I tend to like monitoring certain assets and its price action daily so I am in tune with that is happening and why it may be happening as you are living and breathing the trade live. The danger with indicators (though it has far many positives) is that if the trader then does not put the work in and understand why the price is behaving the way it is, it may lead them into a potentially 'false' trade based on indicators. Using indicators should not mean less research, less effort and should not result to a lazy way of trading. Trading is not easy and if trading was just about trading on indicators then 81% of retail investors losing money would not make sense. However a really good thread @JamesIG and I think your post should encourage more traders to consider using indicators which should help them identify better trades at more opportune moments.
  16. @Caseynotes, I would be inclined to agree with your presumption. I too did not notice any problems before then but this morning all the spreads on my open / live trades were out by quite a distance. Now due to my risk tolerance I may have a large distance in my stop losses than many other traders but those who are keeping tight stop losses could easily get stopped out of a position even if there trade is moving in the correct direction. I cannot see IG compensating many of the clients who may get affected.
  17. @Cedric, Yes @Caseynotes point on keeping a good amount of distance between the margin requirement and account size for any trade is very important. It is often a factor a lot of new traders neglect. It is extremely important when using leverage on a trade as if the price moves against your direction of trade then the leverage can increase the losses incurred. It may only be very short term and temporary before recommencing in the direction you have opened a trade in but nevertheless it is an important point.
  18. @Caseynotes, yes that is right. There seems to be some sort of glitch in the system that causes this to happen. Add any after hours trading to the mix and the spreads and prices seem to go haywire during the weekend.
  19. @elle, You may be on to something or your inference may be correct but I would like to offer a counter argument (where I could be wrong). You state the yellow circles on your chart has 'previous'. I would like to add that 'Historical performance does not necessarily mean that it will be repeated in the future'. Just think of those trends which are formed which make new higher highs, take out its 52 week high and greater long term highs. Those trends defy historical price behaviour. You then state the following: I would like to offer a counter argument to that which is 'Price does often not react to levels it has reached before'. The word often is key as it is as likely to react as it is not to react. It can go both ways. I am not suggesting you are wrong. I am merely presenting a different side to the statement. Now when both the above points are combined then this is where 'Fundamental analysis and Economic Assessment' comes in when it comes to specifically Gold. I have repeatedly stated that I am not a fan of Gold. So why am I trading it? Firstly and foremost the price action and my specific reasons for entry are earlier on in this thread. To support that there are economic reasons as I have previously discussed such as the US Dollar, US Federal Reserve, Monetary Policy, Brexit, Economic Uncertainty, Potential Recessions, etc. When you combine the fundamentals to the price action the narrative becomes slightly different to previous price behaviour as there are 'New Ingrediants' which tell a slightly different narrative when it comes to price action. So for example if you make a cake using the same ingredients and in exactly the same quantity then the taste may still not be the same but will be very similar. Now if you change the ingredients or change the quantity used the taste will be different. The result will still be a cake but the taste will be different. Gold's current price behaviour has a new narrative and backdrop that is more probable (no guarantee) that can make the price react differently to historic price action. The UK will be the first country to leave the EU and Trump is Trump! Now things may play out like the inference @elle is making in the charts with the yellow circles so let's see.
  20. @Caseynotes, Also the prices on open positions seems to be skewed under 'Positions' section. The spreads are more way out than normal it seems.
  21. @Tripeiro, This question has been raised by several others here on the IG Community. My understanding is that it is not and has annoyed several of IG's clients who have posted as such.
  22. I am getting a lot of messages asking what my current view is on Bitcoin. TrendFollower = Positive on Cryptocurrencies as an Asset Class (will take time to grow and improve) TrendFollower = Downward bias on Bitcoin and long term trend still down TrendFollower = Potential Long trades open for day traders, swing traders and generally short timeframe traders TrendFollower = Until bottom has been formed on Bitcoin and then tested (double bottom) prices will not begin to rally and long trend upwards will not be formed TrendFollower = Still possibilities exist for 'Short' positions on Bitcoin to profit from long term trend
  23. @elle, I was actually thinking of a strategy of day trading a strong upward trending asset which is identified early and where the probability of a profitable trade was more times than not based on whether you are 'long' or 'short' of course. This would remove the daily charges and costs associated to the trade and also the profits would be taken on a regular basis and losses too. I am still in the process of devising the strategy so a lot more work needs to be done but interesting.
  24. @Caseynotes, There are rumours of 'news releases' being manipulated on not just social media but on online media in general that 'so called' specialises in Cryptocurrencies. When this news is released on online media it begins to attract those looking to make quick money on Cryptocurrencies and we know how that ends. Even after the current price action I remain positive on Cryptocurrencies as an asset class. My view still has not changed, so far! I think there is more downward movement to come but once the asset class does bottom and all the junk and garbage is removed only then will we see real upwards trending long term movements in Cryptocurrencies in general. I don't even think (as title of this thread states) we are at the long period of consolidation on Bitcoin yet.
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