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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Pikto, The honest answer is that I do not have a 'crystal ball' so I cannot possibly know the outcome. My personal opinion, gut feeling and instinct is that it will cut through $1302 before the Brexit vote. After that it all depends on the reaction to the outcome of the vote by the rest of the world. There could be further downside movement and one cannot rule that out but at the moment there are 'recessionary risks' that major economies around the world face. There are increasing national debts in the US that do not seem to be managed effectively. There could be monetary policy implications going forwards. For now I think we could see a couple of days of positive price action for Gold and then I don't know. These things always tend to go the opposite direction of what one thinks is likely to happen. So it could easily continue the next leg downwards. If you go long or are already long then just ensure you absolutely have a stop loss in place and if in profit a trailing stop loss based on your risk management strategy. You must have an exit plan and and opportunity to exit if the trade should go against you.
  2. Sequel - US 500 - Potential Shorting Opportunity Part II - Including Dow Jones and US Tech 100 Another potential shorting opportunity has presented itself on all three of the major US indices. An interesting indicator is the volume. I include the chart to illustrate the price movement and volume (bars in red) below:
  3. Gold and Silver both shooting up today which is what I was kind of expecting. Gold did briefly touch $1300 but could not stay above it. I see both posting gains for the next couple of days or so as this entices more investors and traders into opening new long positions or add to their existing long positions.
  4. How to invest in artificial intelligence https://www.moneywise.co.uk/investing/first-time-investor/how-to-invest-artificial-intelligence
  5. Lumber has just delivered over 1500 points today and up just over 4%. It seems to getting ready for the next leg up. Lumber is a more defensive asset though I do sometimes wonder with the returns I have made on Lumber both on the long and short trades. Lumber is providing traders with big moves up and down which is great for trend followers.
  6. A free gift shared by @TrendFollower, Jesse Livermore Book - How to Trade in Stocks https://www.trendfollowing.com/pdfs/Jesse_Livermore-How_To_Trade_In_Stocks_(1940_original)-EN.pdf
  7. @RichB-Trader, ah I see. Sorry I misunderstood.
  8. @Caseynotes, Apologies I meant attractive margin requirements not spreads. Typo error from me. Most welcome. Thanks.
  9. Yes quite right but there are variances if you are a professional client with IG and you get more attractive spreads.
  10. It is not for me to advocate any of the options you state. There will be pros and cons on them all. What I can do is tell you what I do personally. I trend trade using spreadbetting to utilise the use of leverage and tax efficiency. Also the ease of use plays a factor along with costs. Futures trading requires a big capital buffer where as margin requirements on spreadbetting can be less capital intensive. Of course this depends on what you trade.
  11. @Caseynotes, This is the danger of the media. I call it ‘market noise’ and it can cloud your judgement. It can interfere in decision making when following the price action. It can lead to forming a bias albeit unintentionally. I accept it is extremely difficult to ignore the ‘market noise’ as the online media plays such a powerful role and important function nowadays. It is amusing though. 😂 Thanks for sharing.
  12. @Caseynotes, No worries. You can always add to that thread. That is fine.
  13. @Caseynotes, Excellent thread by the way on a real life trend that presents a clear trading opportunity and for those interested an investment opportunity.
  14. @Caseynotes, Do not underplay the importance of your thread. As I have said many times I am not keen on Gold from an investment perspective as I think over a longer time period there are better returning investments available. However from a trading perspective there is an opportunity on the long side which has the potential to last for a year or two should bad economic news continue to be released by the major nations around the globe. Gold excels when there is economic fear and uncertainty and this is being witnessed across US, EU and Asia which created a kind of ‘perfect storm’ scenario for Gold to shine. I have been adding to my positions on the dips and pyramiding upwards on both Gold and Silver. The trend since August 2018 is still clearly intact and on the long side. We will all trade precious metals differently using different methodologies so there is no one right way to trade it but the opportunity is there and present in Gold for those who wish to take it. As Gold is less choppy and volatile than other assets then there is also the chance to be more aggressive with the leverage but risk management is key and trailing stops are a must to ensure you don’t end up losing on the trades.
  15. @Caseynotes, The Hong Kong HS50 has taken a 500 point tumble. Major indices have started in the red this morning. China news did not help matters after the depressing US news.
  16. Lumber is showing very sharp rises and sharp drops. This is why when trend following commodities and trying to catch that big trend (there will be plenty of losses) then having more wider stop losses is crucial (at the same time keeping losses to a minimum - very difficult art). If stop losses are too tight then volatility will merely stop you out you will never be able to ride the trend either upwards and downwards. Yes there is a big risk of making larger losses than if you had tighter stop losses but that is the nature of trend following hence why it is not for everyone. One must have capital, wider stop losses within their risk management strategy and be prepared to have more losing trades than winning trades. The key metric is that the profits on the winning trades are larger than the losses on the losing trades. If you cannot stomach the above then trend following may not be for you and there may be other trading principles and philosophies you can adopt such as day trading, scalping, swing trading, etc.
  17. I have been following Jim Rogers since the interview on IG and it really is a bit naughty of him. He advocates 'Sugar' as one of the investments to make. So let us put trading to one side. From an investment perspective and looking at the price performance, I do not at this stage see a compelling reason to do so. There is a reported supply glut in Asia so any increase in prices could be false especially if the 'cartel' manufacture and force through a price increase. Not 'sweet' at this moment in time. I am following Sugar both fundamentally and technically so should this change then I shall share any of my findings. This also gives me a chance to assess the words of Jim Rogers. When billionnaire investors are interviewed by brokers such as IG it does worry me a little bit. Anything they say could be taken very seriously by new and inexperienced investors and traders.
  18. With negative news coming out of both US and China and the Brexit vote next week, is this enough of a catalyst to push Gold further upwards? That is the important question at this moment in time. There seems to be upward movement in Gold but this could be temporary before further downward movement. I am not sure. Also with US indices taking a drop this could be the next leg upwards. I think if Gold breaches $1300 and stays above this then it will be extremely bullish.
  19. Live Cattle is at an interesting juncture. Traditionally one would expect to short now and follow the historical pattern that has been witnessed over time in this asset. Let us see if there is a trend reversal confirmation and this begins to drop which makes it a potential shorting opportunity or if it continues upwards after this brief pause.
  20. @Morph, No problems. I have merely presented some ideas to you. I would encourage you not to just take my ideas presented at blind faith but to conduct your own research and spend time reading and learning before making any final decisions on what to specifically trade. I find that far too many times people want to trade and they have never invested or do not even have an investment portfolio. It is like trying to run before they can walk. My personal opinion is that one must start at investing before they try their hand at trading. May I ask if you invest and have an investment portfolio?
  21. I was inspired by @Caseynotes Uranium thread to add to this thread which I started back in December 2017 so around one year and three months ago. I am taking my trading hat off and putting my investment hat on. I am an investor first and trader second. I have been an investor far longer than a trader. I have been investing in Robotics, Automation and Artificial Intelligence for over a couple of years now when the investment funds first came on the scene. I have experienced positive total returns and annualised returns in this area to date. I am still invested and am investing in funds every month using a 'Pound Cost Averaging' strategy with lump sum investments only on large corrections and falls as and when they arise but otherwise no lump sum investing. Just regular monthly amounts. I want to share some of the investments that I personally have invested in below. I want to demonstrate that I am not just merely all words (though I can write lots!)😂 but I am happy to back it up with real life examples within my own personal investment portfolio which I am not obliged to share but will to demonstrate that it is really not difficult to share real investments and real trades with others on this IG Community. Smith and Williamson Artificial Intelligence - https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/s/smith-and-williamson-artificial-intelligence-z-accumulation/charts Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence - https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/a/allianz-global-artificial-intelligence-accumulation/charts Pictet Robotics Polar Capital Automation & Artificial Intelligence - https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/p/polar-capital-automation-and-artificial-int-i-gbp-accumulation/charts AXA Framlington Robotech - https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/a/axa-wf-framlington-robotech-class-f-accumulation/charts The one thing to note is that the performance differs but they are all in the positive territory. Of course this depends on when you actually invested but bearing in mind this is still not in most people investment portfolios then imagine when it is! Imagine when institutional investors and retail investors increase their exposure and allocation to this area within their investment portfolios? I think over a longer term horizon this area is going to deliver some very positive returns indeed. I am already seeing a lot of companies embrace and implement AI into their organisations. Robotics is starting to appear in the health sector, engineering sector and manufacturing sector. It is happening now. Japan is a big leader in this area. Automation is being implemented in office environments in the UK. I am seeing it now. There are some others that some of you may wish to look at or consider as below: This delivered a 37% return last year. Not many investments can boast that level of aggressive returns. ROBOCAP UCITS FUND INSTITUTIONAL CLASS - ACCUMULATION (GBP) - https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/m/montlake-robocap-ucits-accumulation/charts There are many other funds and ETF's in this area on other broker platforms. I am not suggesting that any of you invest in these or in fact invest in this particular theme. It is one for which I personally have a strong conviction based on my reading, research, acquiring of knowledge and experience. Should you be interested then you must conduct your own research and make your own informed decision. No doubt there will be some of you who do not think these are good investments and that is fine. I am sure there are investments that have returns more over the same period. I am investing in this theme for the long term and have a 10 - 20 year time horizon but that is me personally. I do not know or cannot guarantee that these funds will offer excellent returns going forwards but that is the risk involved in investing. My research has led me to a strong conviction in this theme but it may not for others and that is fine. What I have done is backed up my personal investments with some real life returns which are positive which go to supporting my conviction. Could the returns go higher in the future? Of course they could but I do not know for sure they will but this is where the level of research and acquiring of knowledge is essential. Add real life examples around the world and then one begins to see the potential that this area has in terms of investment returns.
  22. I thought this was an interesting post from a trader being honest. https://www.convictiontrade.com/theory-and-strategy/top-2-reasons-trend-trading-hard/ This is also another interesting take on trend following. Most of what you know about trend following is wrong https://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/most-know-trend-following-wrong-1299477612
  23. Silver has breached $15.00 and seems to be in free fall.
  24. Do you mean the following which exists on the UK Spread Betting platform: Volume Weighted Moving Average
  25. @Mcg, First of all thank you for taking the time to read this thread and no I won't take it the wrong way. I think one should accept open critique and challenge as long as it is polite, professional and does not try and belittle another. I am not trying encouraging anyone to do anything apart from the following. My intention was to share some live trades to encourage others on the IG Community to share their live trades so that it improves the experience on the IG Community and adds value and substance rather than words, charts, lines, links but no real trading value or examples. Obviously my intentions were not successful as I cannot recall anyone sharing any sort of live trades with the rest of the IG Community in real time. I think a lot of traders may be scared what others will comment, scared they may lose credibility and even possibly a tad selfish that may not want to share those trades where they may make money and profit or even share all the losses they may be making. The only reason why I picked US 500 and US indices in general was as a lot of people were commenting on the IG Community in relation to this at that particular time and I felt it may start the process of sharing live trades. I also at the very same time shared live trades on Gold and Silver (Potential Long Trade - Gold). I happened to exit Silver and Gold both on profitable trades which more than covered the loss on the short US 500 trade. I cannot recall anyone else having the courage, guts or helpfulness to do so. It is very easy to comment on others and it is very easy to lead the blind. It is very easy to post links with lots of data and lots of charts. It is very difficult to really want to help others and to share live trades even if they fail or are not profitable. These were two tiny trades from me just to garner interest and interaction and nothing more. My serious trading (the part I keep to myself - secret) 😉 is Commodities and Cryptocurrencies both 'long' and 'short' using trend following principles with my own tweaks based on my own experience. I do not really trade FX or Indices but was particularly interested in US indices and to be fair still am. As someone who follows trend following principles I do not anticipate ends of the trends. I let my winners run and only exit on a confirmed trend reversal but if that is how you trade then that is fine and I am sure it may work for you. If you read my TrendFollowing by TrendFollower thread then you may appreciate my trading philosophy more but I do not expect others to emulate me or even agree with my trading philosophy. I accept trend following is extremely difficult and is not for everyone. Some of what you say I actually agree with. However I personally (do not expect anyone to follow this) do not work on a 50% win formula. I try and cut my losses quickly and let my winners run. So for example I may have 10 trades where I make profits on 3 and losses on 7. As long the profits on my 3 are greater than my losses on the 7 then that is what I am aiming for. On the face of it, it looks like 70% failure rate and 30% success rate but I do not look or pay attention to such percentages. It is the overall profit which is key. Why should you be winning 50% of the time and losing 50% of the time. I do not agree with this at all. The key is to make more profits in a year than losses. The bigger the gap when you make profits against losses the better. You sort of touch on upon this. I personally follow trend following principles as it has worked for me over several years both on the long and short side. However, I appreciate their are different trading styles and different methodologies that others will have that will work for them. Taking profits every day or few days goes against trend following principles unless your trailing stop was triggered as there was a trend reversal. Please do not take what I am about to state the wrong way but at the moment what you have stated are words. It would be so helpful to the IG Community and especially newer more inexperienced traders if you shared a live trade demonstrating the live execution of your words. This way they can all see it in action. Do not worry about the trade being profitable or not as none of us have a crystal ball but sharing that real trade where you put words into action is key and this is the part no one seems keen on doing. I have tried to lead the way as a 'tester' but no one has really followed or embraced this. I totally understand why 'newbies' would not want to share their trades and why they would be scared. However those who think they know it all or those who think they are always right or better than others have also shied away which is rather surprising and disappointing. Even those who believe they are more wiser, more knowledgeable and more experienced have not dared to show even a 'snippet' of a real live trade they have executed. You are right, it is not suppose to be easy. Trading is extremely difficult. That is why just because very few can hold trades and make money does not mean one must not try to achieve this. Some of my best trades in the likes of Lumber, Natural Gas, Orange Juice have been to hold and let my winners run. It has been to hold and do nothing. This truth does not mean one must not hold on to their winners and let them run for as long as possible. The beauty of trend following is that there is absolutely no need to even try and determine how long a trend will last. When the trend reverses then your stop loss will be triggered and you are out. If you are in profit then your trailing stop will be triggered based on your risk management strategy and risk tolerance. Just because it may be difficult to sit in positions and not do anything does not necessarily mean it cannot be a profitable strategy. I agree with your last sentiment that profitable trading is reactive not predictive. To put this in context my trades which I shared were if you like 'tester' trades to try and entice the IG Community to share live trades in which I did not succeed. It was nothing more so please do not read anything more into it. However, I would be more than happy to follow and comment on your live trades and offer my thoughts should you feel confident in applying your words of wisdom and sharing any live trades using your own trading advice. I hope you do take up this offer and let the IG Community travel on this journey with you and embrace the experience. Even if the trade makes a loss then this is still a valuable learning exercise on what possibly not to do or even a lessons learnt exercise afterwards.