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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. Thank you @JamesIG. You have proved @IGMan wrong on this occasion and kept the credibility for your team. You responded in around three hours which is not bad at all.
  2. @Novice27, I must admit my ISA is not with IG and I was not aware of this minimum consideration fee of £90.00. It seems a bit steep but I guess IG cannot have any hidden costs so charge this in a transparent way. Still a lot in my opinion. Have you looked at other ISA providers to see what they charge and if they offer better service and choice than IG?
  3. @Morph, In terms of Commodities you could look at both Oil - US Crude and Oil - Brent Crude. The DAX is also one that you may wish to look at. It is steadier than other indices but also offers the necessary volatility required for effective day trading.
  4. I don't think you can as I asked about this over a year ago. I think in terms of micro and nano caps the closest you will get to a growth market is AIM. I was looking at a couple of NEX listed companies but I had to use another broker.
  5. @Caseynotes, No one is asking you for investment advice. I agree that it is for people to conduct their own research and make their own decisions. There are lots of things that one can find of interest. It does not necessarily mean we will share it all. When an ‘Esteemed Contributor’ posts something then you will have a lot of IG Community reading it and come to right / wrong conclusions. I appreciate that is not down to you as you are merely sharing information and cannot control or be responsible for others. You and I do have a moral responsibility and I must say you are absolutely right that you should not be giving investment advice so I agree with your point. I was just merely asking you on your own view as this is clearly of interest to you as you have started this thread and have posted the information. Maybe you were not expecting any one to challenge or give a different view. I am still stating that I do not know at this stage whether it represents a compelling investment opportunity or not. More time and research would need to be conducted. I see clearly that you do not want to disclose or provide any information in relation to my questions which is fair enough as you are not obliged to do so and why should you? No problem. I shall revisit this at a later date and will see where the Uranium price is and how it is behaving and whether it supports the fundamental supply and demand arguments or if there is a disconnect and if so try and understand why. If this does become a brilliant investment going forwards then I shall be the first to thank you for brining this to the attention of the IG Community. 👍🏾
  6. @Caseynotes, Thanks for sharing this. I have a personal copy and this is one of the best books I have read and one that really encouraged me to follow ‘trend following’ principles. For anyone who has not read this then I personally highly recommend that they do. It will be time well spent. After all this is a free version which you can read on your computer, laptop, tablet or phone.
  7. @Caseynotes, I shall neither take it or leave it. I shall monitor the price action of Uranium and conduct further research from any credible sources to make an informed decision. If you are giving a heads up then have you invested your own capital in Uranium? There is nothing wrong with having a strong conviction so don’t be scared of sharing your own position in terms of whether you have invested in Uranium, if so then which specific share, ETF or investment and when? If not then when do you intend to put your own capital into this conviction? I want to keep it professional and polite. No rudeness. I think this discussion thread between us is extremely healthy and positive.l so I thank you for this. Do you have a specific investment in mind or one that you like better than others for Uranium? The key is always in the detail and I seem to missing the actual nuts and bolts. Surely you would have investments in mind or are aware of potential investments one could make. I have known you on here for a couple of years now and I know how quick and thorough you are. This is a compliment by the way so take it as just that. Excellent thread and some interesting debate taking place. Are you taking it or leaving it?
  8. Is the Dow Jones turning bearish? If one looks at the volume in March 2019 especially the red bars then it kind of paints a sketch. It has gone below its 20 Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This puts more emphasis on recent price action and is weighted more towards that which is why it is a really good indicator to use in my opinion, especially when trying to spot trend reversals or new trends to price monitor for potential trends. What is really interesting is the Parabolic SAR. The red dots above the price indicate a downward trend. I have tried to keep this post as simple as possible as I am aware of my 'audience' and have also received feedback from many stating that they appreciate my simple and straightforward analysis which they can follow more easily.
  9. Silver has gone below its 100 DMA and is heading towards it 200 DMA. If that were to be breached then this would be extremely bearish for the precious metal. I do hope traders on IG Community have been short Silver. Gold is heading towards its 100 DMA but not there yet and there is quite some distance to go before its 200 DMA. What tends to happen is that Gold normally takes the lead on the way up which Silver follows and then overtakes when in a truly bullish bull market. On the way down, Silver takes the lead which Gold then follows but Silver's losses are far greater as it usually goes up higher on the way up. The higher an asset goes then generally the bigger the fall!
  10. @Caseynotes, I agree it is better to be aware than ignorant. But one must also 'beware'. Don't forget the Thorium solution that is being put forward which apparently there is three times the amount of known resources. Let me share this with - Uranium Supplies: Supply of Uranium - World Nuclear Association http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium.aspx I remember the same fanfare about Lithium a few years ago but you only have to look at the chart to see if it was good long term investment or not. Like I clearly stated before on my previous post, I am not suggesting that Uranium will not go up. It may well be the best investment of 2019, I just simply do not know. What I try to do in any investment opportunity is to look at both sides and believe me there are always both sides. I think a good experiment for the IG Community would be from time to time to keep monitoring the price of Global X Uranium ETF on IG and seeing what the price is doing. This will tell us all if Uranium would have been a good investment or not. In the meantime if you do decide to invest then it would be useful to know which investment product you use to invest and when you invest. This way we can tie up the research you have shared with the investment performance and see if they 'run together' or if there is a price disconnect between the fundamental story and the price action story. I have been investing in many themes over the years and my experience has taught me that by the time such information becomes available on the Internet / Google then just be extra vigilant. The smart money is invested when the narrative has not been available / presented to the general population. I may be wrong but by you sharing this material the inference I have made (albeit I could be wrong) that you believe the Uranium investment narrative and either have already invested or are seriously looking to invest imminently? Are you able to share any of these details to the IG Community? I accept my concerns could be wrong and this may well be a fantastic investment opportunity but research must be conducted using credible sources and credible experts before any capital is invested into this specific asset.
  11. @Caseynotes, That's right my post was not meant to relate to the video in any way. It was meant to be related to the thread title of Uranium. Thank you for the summary as a result I have just watched the video. As you know, I will challenge things and try and offer a counter argument (devils advocate). Please do not take it personally like a lot of others do. I merely create challenging discussions which can lead to great investment and trading ideas / opportunities once the arguments from both sides are presented in a balanced way. I am not at all suggesting that Uranium is not a good investment. In this case a potentially lucrative investment opportunity presents itself. I use the word potentially as that is all it is at the moment. I am not sure how credible Jonathan Davies is or how accurate the supply / demand situation he presents through graphs and charts are. Let us just assume it is extremely accurate. At what point would you invest in say the Global X Uranium ETF? Would you invest in it now? Would you wait for it to go down more? Would you wait for it to go up more? The most important question is do you believe Jonathan Davies and the video? If you do then are you seriously considering investing in Uranium? If so how and in which investment vehicle?
  12. The monthly chart on IG is as below: Now below is the weekly chart on IG: Finally below is the daily chart from IG: Jim Rogers has mentioned Sugar for a reason but how credible is his view of Sugar being a better investment than say Gold at this moment in time? It could be in the years to come but right now I am not convinced. There is an awful lot of supply / glut in Asia.
  13. US 500 has gone below its 20 DMA. This is the first signal for a potential shorting opportunity. Aggressive traders may consider shorting once this is crossed. Aggressive trend followers may consider shorting at this juncture too. Around the $2746 level presents an opportunity where the price goes below its 200 DMA. This presents an excellent entry point for a potential short position in my opinion. If it goes below its 50 and 100 DMA's respectively then this could be a potentially big drop. It could be sharp and quick. My timing has been out before but on this occasion the trade deficit news which has just been released in relation to the US has given the impetus and narrative for such a move downwards. Now the opposite could happen and this could end up being a mini correction before the resumption of the upward price behaviour. This is also possible and one simply cannot rule this out. The trend seems exhausted to me. However this could easily lead to nothing more than a rest and then a stronger move upwards wrong footing all the potential shorters. My gut and instinct is telling me that a potential shorting opportunity is arriving very soon but my gut and instinct have been wrong before so lets see what the price action tells us. I have stopped day trading US indices on the long side as the risk is too great at this moment in time.
  14. @Caseynotes, If you look at the chart I posted on 6th November 2018 and then compare it to the chart below I am posting on 6th March 2019 then there is not much to really get excited about from a price action perspective and an investment perspective. Whether you would look at this from a value investment perspective based on future assumptions and projections I do not know. The prospects for Uranium tune have been around for years. I actually came across the Uranium story and investment thesis back in around 2009 so ten years ago. Now have a look at the weekly chart and see the long term story it is telling below: They say a picture tells a thousand words. I think when such investment themes come out then they must be supported by a clear long term trend and one must be able to link the fundamentals, investment theme and the price action together to build a landscape for investment over the long term. You may be absolutely right about Uranium but what we may see is another spike and then another large drop and years of sideways action going forwards which then becomes a potential future trading opportunity rather than an investment idea.
  15. @dax, The key here is which specific index you wish to trade. This will help to establish what the volatility is like. Are you able to tell us which specific index you are thinking of? Another factor as @Ian_944 kindly mentioned was the spread. This is where IG generate their revenues. What is the spread on this index you are looking to trade. You would need a strong and bullish trend for your strategy to have any chance. What if there was lots of sideways activity? You would still be paying the charges. What if the index went down more days than up? I think you would need an index where most of the downside had already been played in. Sort of like a value investment but with clear indicators confirming a trend reversal on the upside. Timing would be key of course but also you would need a lot of variables in your favour. @Ian_944, thank you for your example but one of the things it does not cover is the possibility of the spread changing on the monthly buys and some months widening more than others. This is a hidden cost which is not always easy to calculate but is perfectly possible that during the duration of the investment / trade that the spreads widen and change month on month. @Caseynotes, it would only be perfectly viable if the variables were in your favour. If the variables went against you then over a long period of time it could be disastrous. It seems @Ian_944 would be buying every month regardless of what the price and spread was so this adds risk to this particular investment strategy. A trader would try and add to their position at a more optimum time rather than just very month regardless of price and spreads.
  16. Newsflash: Litecoin Surges 10% Within Minutes – What’s Triggering the Crypto Rally? https://www.ccn.com/newsflash-litecoin-surges-10-within-minutes-whats-triggering-the-crypto-rally
  17. Litecoin is up over 14% at the time of writing and was higher earlier on. It has been one of the better performing Cryptocurrencies which IG offers on its platform during this recent upsurge in the sector. The margin requirements are more reasonable than the likes of Bitcoin and Ether and therefore leverage can be used more cost effectively on it. It is cheaper to trade than its friends. Since the 14th December 2018 it has been on an uptrend making higher highs and higher lows. It has been rather volatile which is expected of course on Cryptocurrencies. Litecoin's 20, 50 and 100 DMA's are sloping upwards and its 200 DMA is sloping downwards. The inference I make from this is that it is still in its long term downtrend but there has been a short time frame trend reversal which is what we are witnessing now. The other interesting factor here is that currently Litecoin is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA. The downside risk to any potential 'long' trade on Litecoin is that it can turn viciously and quickly against you and begin a counter down trend instantly and therefore the likelihood of losses are high. To counter this one could merely day trade Litecoin on the long side to try and keep losses to a minimum. I attach the chart below for your perusal.
  18. I was listening to the recent interview that IG conducted with Jim Rogers, the famous commodity investor, and of course the Co-Founder for Soros Fund Management and the Quantum Fund. If you have not seen this interview then it is nothing special and the usual vagueness and spiel. You most probably can still find it on IG's platform and within the IG Community section. I was disappointed in the lack of any detail or substance within the interview which seemed a waste when you have a so called legendary investor in Jim Rogers. One thing that Jim Rogers mentioned was Sugar. He stated that Sugar was around 80% down from its all time high and at some point it had to go up and recover. It got me thinking. More and more sugar is being reduced in soft drinks and confectionary. More and more sugar substitutes are being launched around the world. More and more sugar alternatives are being introduced. This may have something to do with the depressed prices, demand and of course a glut of supply in Asia! Why must it go up? I then conducted some research on the internet and established that Jim Rogers has been singing the 'Sugar Mantra' for well over a year now. You can by all means check this via Google to confirm this. I then carried out more research and he was humming this tune back in 2008 and singing this song in 2009. It seems he has been 'long' Sugar for over 10 years now. He will want to make the biggest return possible and will want as many people as possible to jump on his bandwagon. When everyone piles in, he will be exiting and profiting. This is why he is a billionaire. Then I began to think does Jim Rogers have his own sugar company somewhere in the world which is not doing as well as it could? Has he investing in Sugar producing companies and wants to raise the prices? I looked at the Sugar - London No.5 chart on IG and it seems it is making new 'higher lows' since middle of August to date. The chart looks horrific from a long term trade perspective due to the sharp upward and downward moves. Risk management would be extremely tricky and it is not an easy trade at all. However, could he be right (timing would be key) in the sense that Sugar is about to go on an upward trend and could this trend if it ever happened be worth trading? I shall be keeping an eye on Sugar going forwards via this new thread and commenting on the price action and any trends that materialise. At the moment it is trading above its 200 DMA but below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA. If it begins to trade above all four of these and the MA curves being sloping upwards then I may get interested.
  19. The drop in Silver has been steep. Nearly a 100 point drop which is has occurred rather swiftly.
  20. I do just wonder if the impending announcement in relation to US-China trade talks is actually priced into US markets? What will happen once this announcement is made or any conclusion to this ongoing saga is confirmed via the media? Will the price action turn bearish on such positive confirmation? This has been seen several times so it would not surprise me. Or will the US markets kick on and make new highs? My profits are getting smaller and smaller on daily 'long' trades on US indices which is indicating to me that the strength of the price behaviour is beginning to wane.
  21. @Dantro, I agree with @Caseynotes in that when you start live use the smallest size the broker will allow. This makes sense. If your trade moves in your direction then you may wish to consider switching from stop loss to trailing stop. This is what I tend to do. Also if the trade move in your direction whether 'long' or 'short' then you may wish to increase your trade size depending on your risk management and capital allocation to each trade levels. The key is to spend plenty of time and effort in reading, acquiring knowledge and researching. Only then will you devise a trading plan, trading strategy and trading system like I have suggested in an earlier post. Even now with all the years I have been investing and trading I am still constantly learning and acquiring new knowledge. As an investor and trader this never stops. You can never know everything and you can never be an expert in anything. The thirst for knowledge will lead you to greater things. You must have the passion and enthusiasm along with the dedication and discipline (PEDD). A new acronym from TrendFollower! 😂
  22. @Caseynotes, Thanks. I had not noticed the inclusion of the US.
  23. @dax, That sounds crazy as the daily charges you would incur would be extremely high. If you want adopt a buy and hold strategy against a specific index then have you considered an ETF for that index through either IG's ISA platform/ share platform or another broker? If you wanted to buy and hold for example a specific region of the world, say US, have you considered a US investment trust, unit trust, OEIC, etc? May I ask why you want to create a spread bet that basically replicated a buy and hold strategy. Trading is a different animal to investing and IG's platform and spreads are a different beast to buy and hold. The charges would be ludicrous to say the least. However, I shall keep an open mind and wait for your response in case you have identified something that I have missed or possibly don't appreciate or understand. It would be interesting to understand your thought process as to the reason for your idea.
  24. @WarrenMunger, That is interesting. Have you noticed this on Spread Betting or any other part of IG's trading platform?
  25. The 'hawks' as I call them will be waiting on the sidelines looking at the optimum time to pounce with shorting US indices. It will be the largest Hedge Funds around the world and the largest investment banks. Here is an interesting article I read this morning: Bear Market Rallies: The Nascent Narcotic https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2019/03/04/bear-market-rallies-the-nascent-narcotic.html
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