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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Caseynotes, It is actually reported that 90% of start ups fail rather than 70%. As some who has an equity stake in many start ups over the years, banks will not just lend capital to any start up. They look at the risk, business plans, potential markets, other avenues the business is looking to raise capital, background of founders and major shareholders, etc. Being a shareholder in many start up growth businesses I can tell you that the banks absolutely look at experience of the founders. More and more companies are starting to raise via equity crowdfunding but banks are still one of the first places they go to. Banks charge interest which the start up must pay so is a cost related to that particular method of financing. Where as equity crowdfunding allows them more cheaper access to capital with the added bonus of marketing and awareness thrown into the mix.
  2. @Caseynotes, I do agree with the view that too many retail clients lose money. I mean 81% of IG's retail clients using CFD / Spread Betting accounts lose money. That is shocking but that does not mean that CFD's or Spread Betting are the problem. It is the acceptance of retail clients from IG and allowing them to trade such products which is the issue. Maybe based on checks conducted by IG they should provide each retail client its own personalised leverage ability, sort of like how credit card companies operate. We could all have the same credit card but different credit limits based on our own risk levels, our income, assets, credit risk, etc. The use of leverage with IG should not just be based on the clients income, risk, assets, etc. It should be based on knowledge and experience of the markets they are looking to trade. The use of leverage would only go up based on the percentage of successful/profitable trades. That would be far better. The more losses you make then the less leverage you are able to use. This would make IG possibly less money if they have more bad traders than good but it would be a nice balance.
  3. @Caseynotes, I hope not. I mainly use 'Spread Betting' on IG's UK platform for the ability to use 'leverage' and 'tax free' element from profits. I am aware that 'Spread Betting' is not available in the US which does kind of surprise me as usually the UK and US go down similar paths but not on this. I can see where you are coming from. Interesting perspective.
  4. @dash1, I have not looked at the stock and nor do I have an opinion at the moment on it. What I would say is that look at the price action of the stock and what is it telling you? Is it in an upward trending, downward trending or sideways moving situation. What do the moving averages tell you? Are the 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA curving upwards, sideways or downwards. Or are they mixed? I could have done this for you but I think if you do it yourself then it will really help you understand what is currently happening, what has just happened and what 'may' happen (no guarantees) going forwards.
  5. @theshidoshi, I appreciate that the media shout about the lower costs ETF 'trackers' investment options but have you considered US investment trusts, unit trusts or OEICS. Yes the costs are higher but if the performance is superior in a few of them and their returns are far greater then surely this has to be considered (over a 20 year period) over any currency fluctuations and costs. Also the right US funds could totally outperform the US indices via ETF exposure. I have just quickly found a couple of articles that highlight the point but there may be better articles out there which I did not have time to find. The US funds that have consistently beaten the S&P 500 https://www.trustnet.com/news/832128/the-us-funds-that-have-consistently-beaten-the-sp-500 Best Mutual Funds Beating S&P 500 And Other Benchmarks Over 1, 3, 5 & 10 Years https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/best-mutual-funds-beating-sp-500-over-last-1-3-5-10-years/ If you for example look at Fidelity's FundSupermarket or Hargreaves Lansdown's website you will find the following which you can assess the performance against US S&P ETF's: US Large Cap Funds US Mid Cap Funds US Small Cap Funds US Opportunity - Type (Themed) Funds It is worth considering. If after your research you still find that S&P ETF's whether in GBP or USD have better returns in different time periods than such funds then at least you have some reasoning and research behind your investment decision. 20 years is a very long time after all to create some serious wealth.
  6. @Rockette, No problem. I am yet to come across an internationally respected trader as part of an advisory service! When you say internationally respected, in what way? This person has suggested 'March Spread Bet' Contract. Now what worries me is that you may well execute a dummy trade but if you then entered a contract in a different quarter the price action may be totally different so I cannot understand this at all. It just does not make any sense to me. This may be due to the lack of information you have provided. You obviously know more about this than you have explained on this thread. However, just think of yourself in our shoes when reading this. It makes very little sense. I am trying to fathom how the success or failure of the dummy trade for that specific trade will help you make an effective decision.
  7. @Billy999, What @PandaFace suggests above seems likely. It is possible that the price will show like that until the market opens on Monday.
  8. @Billy999, On IG's Spread Betting platform 'Sirius Minerals' is showing as Buy - 21.534 and Sell - 21.366.
  9. This is an even more difficult trade to participate in than I had envisaged. I knew it would be tricky and difficult but due to the extreme volatility and price swings, the downward trend I was expecting has not come as I envisaged. If anything the 'Jobs' news from the US released has made me think very hard about this trade. The trades have finished as below: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 is down 22 points. Short opened on 27/12/2018 at 07:57 is down 72 points. Overall, I am 94 points down as a result of both trades combined. A few things can happen going forwards: My stop losses will trigger on both trades and I will be out should the price action continue the way it is. I can see the price going towards $2600 before any next leg downwards continues. Obviously this is an assumption which the price action will confirm or reject. Due to the volatility and price swings with whipsaw action being witnessed there may be some profit taking and closing of positions which may lead the price to go down in which case the trades will continue as they are. The longer term trend is downwards yet the shorter term trend is upwards. The price action will determine what happens next in these trades. If the price action goes against the trades aggressively then the trades will be closed. I appreciate that there was positive news in the US released on Friday (yesterday) but that is based on now. The stock markets are 'Future Discounting Mechanisms' that are looking at around six months into the future. So in theory once those who trade on news have done their trading, the normal trend should resume. This of course may not happen but is how I am thinking at the moment. However my trades are based on current price action and that is what I must use to make any decisions and this is where I need to keep my discipline and stick to decision making based solely on price action rather than 'news', 'fundamentals', etc.
  10. Here is how my live trades in Gold and Silver ended the week. Long Trade in Silver up 97 points Long Trade in Gold up 35 points If you look at my previous post (above) then there is a very small drop in the number of points which is to be expected of course. I would still expect further drops in points before the next leg upwards potentially resumes as there is no guarantee that it will. So far my assessment of both trades are that I am happy with the way they are performing. I am trading with the trend and the price action is going upwards hence the decision to go 'Long' is the correct one. Has the price continued increasing since entering both trades? Yes it has. Is there a trend reversal? No there is not so far.
  11. @JamesIG and @DekkoHoldings, I think what I see on the mobile is very similar if not the same as what I see on my desktop. The main difference seems to be that on my desktop they come under 'ETFs' and on my mobile they come under ETFs, ETCs & Trackers. I have not checked every single product on both my desktop and mobile app to confirm this 100% but that is my view at the moment.
  12. @JamesIG, Thanks for this. I shall start testing this when in I am trying to identify potential trends to trade.
  13. @JamesIG, Thank you. It is showing now.
  14. @Rockette, Please be careful. What is the reasoning behind the person giving you advice? Why are they not placing the trade themselves? Do you trust them? You clearly do not know what a March Spread Bet contract is yet they are asking you to place a traded for a specific time period. Do they know something is going to happen in this period? Maybe it is nothing but I worry about 'Third Party Insider Dealing'.
  15. @Tradingview, Yes quite right. My trading style is all about trying to increase the odds in my favour and enhance the probability of a profitable trade. No guarantees of course.
  16. Major indices are tricky to trade due to the price swings, whipsaws and volatility. It is why I favour a long term trend trade rather than short term on major indices but that's me. The volatility is brilliant for short term swing traders as there are plenty of swings they can capture.
  17. @Nelsy-Boy, This question comes down to your 'Trading Philosophy'. What is yours? That will help to answer the question. I personally follow the 'Trend Following' philosophy so I add positions as the trend moves in my favour. My initial trade certainly is not a tentative toe in the water as I am only going to enter the trade once certain signals are met and indicators support this. Adding positions is included in my 'Trading Strategy'. I want to try and maximise any profits on a strong trending trade so I 'Pyramid' by adding positions as the price moves. Of course if you are an 'Elliot Wave' Trader then your strategy may include 'Waves' in any scenario when you add to your position. It may be at A, B or C or at certain Fibonacci points. On your last point when I enter a trend I have no idea how long it is going to last or which point I am in that trend. Your initial entry may be near the first 10% of the trend and your additional position may only be 20% into the trend. There may still be 80% left of the trend. Trend followers will want to see new higher highs being formed and new higher lows being formed on upwards trends and vice versa for downward trends. If you think there may only be 10%-20% left in the trend because it has mainly played out then I would be inclined not to enter. So for example, I thought I called the direction of the trend right on Oil. I did not trade it as by the time I seriously considered it the move was so quick that I felt I had missed the majority of the trend and following the trend but not be worth the risk/reward. So I can see where you are coming from on this point.
  18. @JamesN, Could both of your stop losses on both positions have been triggered due to the extreme volatility?
  19. @Telstra & @JamesIG, I sincerely hope the TFN is not the Australian Tax File Number and following it is not the Medicare Health Number in Australia. Also full name has been provided and what looks like an expiry date of some sort. Please can this be removed immediately. @JamesIG, what happened to the button we could press to report such posts? I still cannot see it on my screen.
  20. With around an hour to go until the US markets close the current performance on both trades is as follows: Short opened on 20/12/2018 at 13:30 is up 56 points. Short opened on 27/12/2018 at 07:57 is up 6 points. Overall, I am 62 points up as a result of both trades combined.
  21. @Nelsy-Boy, May I please be critical without any offence being taken? Shorting can be perceived by some as being more risky than going long. So to initiate a short trade based on partly 'fancying your chances' is an absolute no no in my personal opinion. I have stated this on other threads but you really need a 'Trading Plan'. Then you need a clearly defined 'Trading Strategy'. This will lead you to develop a 'Trading System' where you follow clear rules of 'Entry and Exit' based on your 'Trading Style and Philosophy'. Without this you are merely 'chancing' and over time this will eat into your capital. Treat capital as an asset you must defend at all costs. You must try to lose as little capital as possible. It is about capital protection first as without capital you cannot trade. I only trade using profits from my investing portfolio. Capital cannot simply be traded away based on fancying your chances. I appreciate you identified an engulfing candle but you must ask yourself why this would increase your chances of success in the trade and put the odds in your favour? Was your stop loss distance correct? It may well have been and it may be that your trading is effective hence you got stopped out early and minimised your losses. There is nothing wrong in losing a trade. I shared two losing trades with the IG Community where I got stopped out on Ripple and Stellar a few months back. Though both of those trades met my entry criteria both were unsuccessful for me. I am not having a go at your or anything to please do not take it the wrong way. I just merely trying to help you as you seem to ask some really important questions and come across someone who wants to learn and improve.
  22. @elle, Yes that is right, they did. Good point.
  23. @DSchenk, I don't know about the merchant category code for IG. I think it is down to your credit card whether they classify it as a cash advance or purchase. I would check with them before funding your account. Also funding with your debit card is free but check to make sure there is no additional charge for funding your account with your credit card. I know there is not with debit cards but do check.
  24. @Nelsy-Boy I looked at it yesterday based on your post but it is not a potential trade that I am following at this moment in time. Even though the current price is below its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA have a look at how the moving averages curves are sloping. None of them are sloping downwards strongly and therefore based on my trading system I would not enter the trade. I would need at least the 20 and 50 day moving average curves sloping downwards more which may happen going forwards to even consider looking at it. What is your trading strategy behind trading FX pairs such as this? Are you looking to trade a long term trade or merely day trading over a 24 hour period? I don't quite understand. How are you deciding when to enter the trade? What is your criteria and time period for trading FX Pairs?
  25. @JamesIG, Some traders on IG Community expect there to be a drop in major equities. They also think precious metal prices may go up. If this plays out then an important asset which often traders never seem to talk about or discuss is Bonds and Gilts. You may wish to set up a new section on the IG Community called Bonds? If things do play out (there is no guarantee that they will) but if they and major stock markets decline and precious metals do increase in value then I think Bonds should see a price increase in such conditions as institutions and 'High Net Worth Individuals' (HNW) shift part of their capital into this asset class to protect their portfolios. Bonds are a 'defensive' assets that tend to rise in value in such conditions. The smart money tends to enter Bonds before the mainstream media talk about them. The smart traders will notice the trends before traders begin trading them. Have a look at the price action on some of the following: US Treasury Bond US 10-Year T-Note German Bund US Ultra Treasury Bond US 5-Year T-Note US 2-Year T-Note Japanese Government Bond I for one am keeping a close eye on the price action for these (above). I shall let the price action confirm my assumptions. Also Bonds as an asset class tend to be a lot less volatile than other asset classes so they should not be crazy daily swings like we are seeing on major indices right now. The one thing most of the above have in common is that they are all trading above the 20, 50 and 100 day moving averages on a '4 hour' timeframe.
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