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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @JamesIG, Thanks for sharing this. One thing the link to IG's piece on trading Coffee does not mention is that 'Speculation' also moves Coffee prices when there is anticipation in advance of a potential / possible outcome. Hedge Funds are great at driving prices either higher or lower.
  2. @nit2wynit, Each trading vehicle will have its advantages and disadvantages. You must choose one or several which meets your needs and can help you to reach your goals. With Spread Betting it allows you access to certain assets like Cryptocurrencies and Commodities without owning the physical Cryptocurrency or opening a Commodities futures account. It also allows you to short shares which you could not do if you were merely acquiring them (long position) from a mainstream broker. It is also tax efficient for the 20% who make profits but they would still have to make profits greater than their CGT allowance to take advantage of this tax efficiency which possibly many do not. There are downsides of course such as the wide and at times ridiculous spreads, margin requirements and overnight charges. It will suit some and I am sure it will not suit many. For me those who lose money and have losing trades using Spread Betting find it easy to blame 'Spread Betting' rather than their trading strategy and trading system. Options will have their benefits and CFD's will have theirs. You must use the trading vehicle and platform which best suits your trading strategy and system. You must use the option which gives you the best chance of profit maximisation and successful / profitable trades. Only you will be able to decide this. What is right / wrong for you may not be for others.
  3. @cryptotrader, The price started its recent strong decline from August 2018. I do not follow the stock nor have I ever invested or traded it. Therefore I am not familiar with the fundamentals. These shares are great when Commodities are on a super bull run. They attracts a lot of speculative capital. They become leverage play on Commodities. @wjw22, By the time you establish there is no chance of further capital the so called smarter money have already shorted it and driven the price down. Just be careful that you are not the last one to join the shorting/selling party.
  4. @wjw22, The smart money would have shorted this since August 2018. It has been a short since. The question now is whether there is more downside, a potential revival and rally or prolonged sideways action. You state the company is about to run out of money by the end of Q2 2019. Is there any chance of further investment being made in the company? Could further capital be injected into the business? What about the fundamentals of the company? Are they strong, weak or thin air?
  5. @kingtrader72, Had you gone long on 4th April 2019 then you would be losing capital. One of the reasons would be that you would be trading against a strong bearish trend. You also need to look at the supply / demand issues for Coffee and any fundamental factors which are driving coffee prices down. One would need to appreciate the background narrative being played before placing any trading position. I would suggest either short coffee or if you feel uncomfortable shorting an asset then wait patiently and do nothing. Wait for a clear trend reversal.
  6. The momentum is indicating bearishness. It has gone below 0. Just how far it goes down will be of most importance to Gold traders. The Parabolic SAR is signalling the threat of a trend change. Once it goes below the dots then it may indicate a potential trend change, especially if the price action continues to go downwards.
  7. Brexit has been delayed and the media are reporting positive trade talks between US-China. This has created the atmosphere for bearish price action. At the same time major indices have been bullish which again has called for a bearish environment.
  8. The US indices just keep rising and rising. The Nasdaq 100 seems the closest to its 52 week high and seems to be leading the way with the Dow and S&P following its path. What happens when all three meet this point is going to be absolutely fascinating.
  9. It is 21:24 UK time and Bitcoin Cash is up 11% already. There will have been a lot of traders who were stopped out due to the extreme volatility witnessed today. They also would not have gone back in but Bitcoin Cash is moving way ahead of other Cryptos as the rest are all trading in the red bar Bitcoin Gold which is up 0.74%.
  10. Bitcoin Cash Just Outcompeted Litecoin On CoinMarketCap https://www.investinblockchain.com/bitcoin-cash-outcompeted-litecoin-coinmarketcap/
  11. Litecoin Achieves New Heights As Lightning Strikes Twice https://cryptobriefing.com/litecoin-hashrate-lightning-network/ The question is whether this is priced in already?
  12. There is some absolutely crazy volatility going on not just for Bitcoin but all the Cryptocurrencies that IG offers on its platform. My guess is it is computer driven automatic trades going on using complex algorithmic trading methods and high speed frequency trading. What this enables them is to ruthlessly close down all those poor innocent traders with tight stop losses on a high risk asset like Cryptos that get stopped out thus making losses whilst the big boy bullies buy back in at cheaper / lower prices. Rinse and repeat when one least expects. This is whilst the charts are showing a bullish trend and they know exactly what indicators traders who trade Cryptos are using.
  13. Yes valid point @cryptotrader. Makes sense.
  14. @nit2wynit, Yes, fair points you make. I try to trade only strong trending assets using Spread Betting for the very reasons you highlight as issues. Anything else and the risks you articulate come into play. I do not have any time or income targets. If you have a trading plan which is to generate £50k income by trading for two hours a day then you need to have a trading strategy that you can execute which will give you the chance and opportunity to do this. Your trading system needs to be adequate enough to generate this income using the time trading specified. You would need to select the right assets to trade at the right time to have any chance of meeting this target.
  15. @Minde1, Using ETP's involves counterparty risk. Also the accuracy of tracking the asset can be questionable on some of them. They are so complex and obscure in how they are set up that the normal person will simply not understand how they are set up and operate.
  16. @cryptotrader, Oh ok. I did not realise that IG required market cap of £10m. A lot of nano caps have markets caps of less than £3m so it would def. rule them out. That is interesting.
  17. In theory you could if you were transferring from one ISA provider to another though it may take far longer than transferring the money from your bank or paying into your account by debit card. Bear that in mind.
  18. @williambedwell, Yes you will find some (more likely the AIM 100) rather than the thousand or so (junk) which are listed on the AIM market. Some of these will be micro caps and the majority are likely to be 'Nano Caps'.
  19. Precious Metals generally are looking bearish and the media is reporting positive talks between US and China and Brexit delays thus providing a negative narrative. It seems there is some consolidation going on but the important question is whether Palladium will: 1) Continue its upward trend 2) Continue its downward trend 3) Continue its sideways trend Of course the above depends on which timeframe you are looking at but one could argue that Palladium is showing all three of the above. I do not know the answer but the price action is going to tell us the answer. It is the only one that can!
  20. For me Gold is showing weakness and this could be a healthy correction before another move upward resumes. I do not know. What I do know is that Gold is showing bearish signals and the trend is not upwards right now when looking at the 'daily'. This may be a shorter term trend downwards or it could be deeper. Again I do not know but right now the price action is showing weakness.
  21. U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales numbers for Lean Hogs released on Thursday were very interesting. The USDA pegged net U.S. pork sales at 90,700 metric tons for the March 29 to April 4 period, with China buying 77,700 metric tons. Using Supply and Demand information, the fundamentals for Lean Hogs with clear support from the price action delivers a strong and bullish trend. How long this will continue no one knows but 'Trend Identification' is a key part of any trend following strategy and this is where a lot of traders who follow trend following principles miss the big returns because they stick to familiar assets. It is not the asset which is important but the trend and price action in my personal opinion.
  22. @nit2wynit, You may be interested in reading my 'Potential Long Gold Trade' thread. There may be snippets in there which could possibly be of interest to you.
  23. I am going to show the chart for Lean Hogs which it is trading above its 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA on the 'daily'. Another key factor is that the moving average curves are all sloping upwards which is bullish as the chart below will show. So what is the reason for the spike. When technical analysis meets fundamental analysis and the reason for the price action is known and is a strong driver then the trends seem to also be strong. Now demand from China is increasing due to African swine fever which is contagious. Now it is reported that China is the largest consumer in the world for Pork. It produces and consumers over half of all the Pork in the world. It seems this increased demand from China is pushing up US prices. Now when one begins to understand why the price is bullish and trending upwards and can link the fundamental supply and demand picture with the technical narrative then one is presented with a strong trading opportunity. Now based on my previous threads and posts of identifying trend commodities I expect an IG Analyst to post something in relation to Lean Hogs shortly. They normally do so after I have identified the trending opportunity to the IG Community. LOL. 🤣😂
  24. Gold is looking bearish. It is trading below its 20, 50 and 100 DMA. The $1256.35 level represents its 200 DMA on the 'daily' which will be a key price point for Gold to defend should it continue its path downwards. Price action is KING There is no amount of 'waffle', predictions, projections or technical analysis that can change price action currently. It is price action that creates the results which can be used for technical analysis and not the other way around. No amount of charts, lines, more charts and more lines can alter the price action in the future. The price is not obliged to move on my assumption, my projection, my prediction, my opinion, my analysis and my charts. Price answers to no one. Therefore following the price action is a key element when trading not just Gold but any asset. For me there is still no potential 'Long' trade for Gold at this moment in time. If anything one may consider a short. It is not something I personally would short right now as there are better trending shorting opportunities than Gold at the moment.