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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @dmedin I agree. I have openly said that Gold as an asset is not something I am positive about long term going forwards. Also as an investment I am not too keen on it either. There was a trading opportunity for Gold from August 2018 which I participated in. Yes, IG do seem to have a Gold post every other day if not every day highlighting the basic price action thus potentially trying to encourage its clients. There are better and more stronger trending assets than Gold. Also one must not rely on luck or hope when trading. The trend clearly from a 'daily' chart perspective is downwards and has been since the middle of February 2019. Are people too late to 'short'? Time will tell.
  2. To offer some balance on this thread I came across this article which was rather interesting. Why are Indians falling out of love with gold? https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2019/05/20/why-are-indians-falling-out-of-love-with-gold
  3. Let me get back to the seriousness of this thread. The price action last week indicates to me that the US dollar is one of the biggest influences on the direction that the Gold price takes. I mean the price action could continue to be bearish and go down from here should demand for the US Dollar increase from safe haven demand and if the US Economy shows that it is strengening. One must factor in geopolitical risk too. If the Gold price is going to increase then it may require the situation between the US and China worsening in relation to trade talks or even the latest military scenario between the US and Iran. Now Gold is currently trading at $1277 level. It hit $1273 earlier and for me that $1270 is still a key short term price point to be aware of from the 'daily' perspective. Only if that is broken on the downside could there be further bearishness. I do not know what is going to happen going forwards so it is certainly fascinating. I think any bad news could see the Gold price rise and positive news could see the Gold price continue declining. Very uncertain times for Gold right now.
  4. @Caseynotes, This is a Gold thread so if you are going to advise others to keep it thread related then you must adhere to it yourself. What is your correct and sound analysis on Gold? That is what this thread is in relation to. I am not interested on USD/JPY on this thread as that has nothing to do with trading Gold. If you are going to post on this thread then add some value on trading Gold. What are your thoughts. I want to see your sound analysis and actually see how it plays out going forwards. So how are you going to trade Gold and we will all follow this trade closely and lets see how your sound rationale and analysis leads to an effective entry point and profitable exit point. Just remind me and others what your trading style is again as I honestly cannot remember. Are you a swing trader or a day trader? Or do you use another trading methodology?
  5. @Caseynotes, First of all, why don't you offer correct and sound analysis in terms of real trades that have real value to the IG Community. I am not encouraging anyone to lose money. I have no such history on this forum as I shares two live trades in the past and one was profitable and the other was not. You are just trying to belittle me. Why not stick to this thread and share some real insight.
  6. @Caseynotes, I shall stick to this thread and keep it related. So Crypto Roundup. Your last post (above) what is the difference between your post and the prices when I go to IG's platform and look at the Crypto prices? Do you see something that we do not?
  7. @Caseynotes, You are totally twisting my posts which is just plain wrong. I do not post trade advice and I am not suggesting anyone follows my potential trading suggestions. It is merely to engage in discussion. I am not looking for anyone to teach me how to trade. You are totally making assumptions and misrepresenting my intentions. Of course I can learn and improve just like anyone else as I am not a professional trader nor am I an expert. I am not looking for an education. If I want to learn then I am aware of what I must do. @Caseynotes, what makes you more higher qualified than anyone else on IG Community? As I stated before, there is no substance behind you. You shy away from actually offering anything credible. I used to have a mentor thank you. He helped me a lot during my early years of trading. In terms of investing and building investment portfolios and creating long term wealth then I am actually a mentor to others. A mentor in trading would be someone successful, knowledgable, experienced and profitable. Not everyone knows someone like that hence the IG Community. Others cannot ask you to be their mentor as you post theory and analysis but where is the substance behind it? There is no actual trade where one can measure you. My Gold and Silver live trades were both profitable. My short on S&P 500 made a loss as my stop loss was triggered but it was initially well into profit. We all know what happened on that trade. You simply move on. I don't even think about those trades. I have traded Lumber, Orange Juice, Bitcoin, etc. They have all been profitable. Yes, I have made losses too but that is trading. All you can do is go back to my two live trades I shared and judge on that. What can people judge you on? Nothing as for all your posts after posts after posts they offer nothing of substance in terms of real trading that you are doing. No one knows what you trade and when. You are just hiding behind theory in your posts. Anyway sticking to this thread what do you think about Gold both 'Long' or 'Short'. Why don't you actually offer something credible to the IG Community. You see the reality is that none of us know what is going to happen in the future. So we make assumptions that we test. We will be right sometimes and wrong the others. What are your views on Gold going forwards? Share your wisdom, intelligence and superiority with others on IG Community if you know better. Let's stick to the thread topic please.
  8. @Caseynotes, Who is instigating all this? You are. We agreed we would stay out of each other's way. You stay away from me and I shall do the same. End of. You decided to re-appear and begin to try and belittle me. I suggest you stop trying to belittle me and stop trying make yourself superior to everyone. You are not the almighty that knows everything and is always right. I am sure you have trades that fail. I am sure you make incorrect trading decisions. Even with your sound rationale on every trade you will be making losses as even the professionals will. You are not a professional as a professional cannot spend the time you do on IG Community even with an automated trading system! Sticking to this thread. I shall ask again. What Crypto's are you invested in? Which Crypto's do you trade? What do you actually think of Bitcoin? My thoughts are open and out there throughout my threads in relation to Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain and I have been posting for a few years on this.
  9. @Caseynotes, I see you just cannot answer simple questions yet again. You are very good at side stepping. Have you considered politics? LOL. I am just fine and content trading Crypto’s thank you. Of course there will be things I can improve on, who can’t? What Crypto’s are you investing in or trading? It is not a difficult question! Oh sorry you do not have time to trade Crypto’s as you are too busy replying to your own posts on your own threads to build up your post count!!! Are you offering mentor services? It would be good to see you suggest a trade as it is easy to belittle others. What do you think of Bitcoin? Do you believe in Bitcoin? What do you think of asset tokenisation? What do you think of borderless payments?
  10. @Caseynotes, You are all talk and words. Talk us through a real time live trade and let’s see your sound rationale. You state you have sound rationale for every live trade. They are just more words. Posting the most content does not make you any more profitable or credible. I have stated on many posts that I am an investor first and a trader second. My main focus is investing and I have been investing for a very long time now. The two live trades I posted were just to encourage others on IG Community to share their live trades and nothing more. They were just some fun and play trades. Don’t read anything more to it or make assumptions. I have my own trading system and it works for me. Of course one can always improve but it suits me just fine. Unless you can offer anything credible or with substance then what makes you better than any other trader.
  11. @dmedin, Yes, there is a lot of information available which we can all access if we wish to. Personally in my opinion, a serious trader, should not rely on others and people they do not know to acquire knowledge. They should be finding the reading material themselves and learning. If they read something they do not understand then they should be asking questions to say the IG Community to see if anyone can explain. They should not just take any answer given as fact and should test it, challenge it if necessary and really question what they are learning. If a serious trader cannot find reading material themselves then I do worry how they are going to ever succeed in trading markets which is extremely difficult and full of risks day after day and hour after hour. Some of the basic questions that are asked on the IG Community are worrying. I accept that these are new to trading but I think it takes a certain type of personality, mindset and strength to last a long time in trading. Spread Betting is not for everyone. In fact I would suggest anyone new to trading to stay away from Spread Betting until they acquire more knowledge and experience in trading and are able to test a trading strategy which is able to utilise any Spread Betting platform.
  12. @dmedin, It will be interesting to see what happens next week. The risk on the short trade right now is that this downward move is just a mere breather before the upward long term move resumes. One needs to be aware of that possibility which is just as likely as a larger downward move occurring. All it takes is good news from Trump, US, etc. and the US indices are storming upwards again.
  13. @Foxy, Ok that is interesting. I accept your premise on if you wait for the trend to break you will lose profit but my strategy is to capture the middle part of the trend. I will never buy at the bottom and never sell at the top on any long trade. Sometimes trying to exit before a trend has reversed can lead to missing out on the big moves which come later. I take your point but that is a strategy for other trading styles rather than mine. Sometimes the 'zig zag' can occur and then boom a sharp moves is followed and exiting too early is one of the biggest mistakes traders make.
  14. @Foxy, Thank you. Spot on. I totally agree that the trend is 'short' and the current trade is 'short', full stop. That is not up for debate in my opinion. However, I appreciate that lots of other traders on IG Community follow many different trading styles and philosophies and not just trend following. Just because I do does not make it right for everyone else. This thread is relating to potential long gold trades. So to open up a discussion I have merely 'dart chucked' a few trading suggestions. 😂🎯 Whether the darts have hit their intended spots or have gone off the board we shall find out very soon. The problem is that there are hardly if any trend followers who make themselves known on the IG Community so my audience for this thread are not really trend followers. Your expectation for trend followers is right. They would already be short and would only exit on any trend reversal. However, let me ask you a question. If the price of Gold went down to around $1270 levels and held and did not breach below then do you think that level would provide strong support for Gold and enough for a potential trend reversal? I personally do not like setting exit targets. I notice you set $1249.00 as a target but if your short trade got to this level then what? Does your stop loss execute and you are out? If this is the case, what if the price continues going down? If in profit, I tend to switch to a trailing stop. If the Gold price goes anywhere near $1249 then for me that is a very bearish downward move for Gold in my opinion. I would be expecting stocks and crypto to be storming upwards in this same time period with RISK ON trading decisions being made. Thank you very much for your contribution. It is very much appreciated and for the record I agree with your post.
  15. @786Trader, President Trump and the US have announced that they will lift tariffs for Canada and Mexico. It shows that he is making progress when it comes to looking after No.1 which is the US. Yes you have a good weekend too. 👍
  16. Overview on Trend Following by TrendFollower: I wanted to take this opportunity discuss my thoughts on following 'Trend Following' principles. Trend Following is primarily trading based on price action and where an asset is trending either upwards or downwards. I personally want to try and identify the strongest trending assets and trade with the trend thus increasing the odds and probability in my favour for a successful and profitable trade. So which asset is trending strongly at the moment? In my personal opinion it is Cryptocurrencies. It is the newest asset class but it is also one of the strongest trending asset classes right now. When I started following 'Trend Following' principles, I started using them trading Commodities. From my personal experience, I find that Commodities can provide strong trends both upwards and downwards thus allowing you to go 'Long' and 'Short'. This enables you to trade an asset within Commodities when it is either trending upwards or downwards. So it does not matter if you are in a bull market or bear market for Commodities. I have also found in my time trading Commodities that there is always a trading opportunity present and the stronger trends tend to last a longer time. Trend Following allows you to trade when markets are going up and when they are going down. So it does not matter which direction the markets are trading in. You are going to trade in that same direction whether it be 'Long' or 'Short'. Another important factor that people tend to forget for 'Trend Following' is that its aim to to cut losses quickly. Therefore drawdowns are going to be kept to a minimum on any trade. This can be an important factor when markets are bearish when compared to other strategies. Also you may well be 'Shorting' in a bearish market to increase your returns as these moves seem to be quick and sharp. I am not suggesting that 'Trend Following' is the best strategy or the most effective strategy when it comes to maximising profits. It is a trading style and philosophy that suits my personality and mindset. It is also suits the time I have available to trade. Some of the key points I want to highlight in successful and profitable Trend Following are: Identify the strongest trending assets (it does not matter which asset class it is) The stronger the trend, the greater the profit potential Always trade with the trend and never against the trend (increases odds and probability in your favour) Try and get in as early as possible once trend has been identified Do not exit until there is a clear trend reversal Do not worry about losses and learn to accept and embrace them. They are part of trading. Of course the aim is to minimise losses and to keep them to a minimum so exit early when trade goes against you. There will be other trading strategies that others adopt which may be more successful and profitable than Trend Following. I do not doubt that but that is for others to highlight and bring to the attention of the IG Community. I am merely discussing the trading style and philosophy I have adopted.
  17. @Caseynotes, There are many things that you post that I do not know what the point of them are. A dart player who is skillful will be able to precisely throw a dart on the part of the board they want to. They will be able to more times than not target a specific number or bullseye. How accurate is your 'Dart Chucking' @Caseynotes? I agree it is not a typical or traditional 'Triple Bottom' but if the price bounces off around the $1270 then from the 'daily' chart perspective it does have strong similarities to a triple bottom. However, one must not get worked out about whether it is or not. What is important is how effective your trading decisions are and how much profit you can maximise from a potential trade. If you are more intelligence, wiser, have more experience and know better then please do share a LIVE TRADE with us all on the IG Community.
  18. So all this effort with posting charts and more charts on Bitcoin, is @Caseynotes invested in or trading Bitcoin? Or is it merely a pastime hobby as he has nothing better to do and has far too much spare time on his side? I am trying to understand why spend all this effort and time posting on a specific asset if he has not either acquired Bitcoin physically, invested in Bitcoin or has/is trading Bitcoin? At the very least he is interested in doing any of these going forwards in the near future.
  19. I see @Caseynotes is providing live price updates on Cryptocurrencies. Is there a better service from this thread than checking the live prices on offer from IG's platform? Oh sorry are they screen shots from IG's service! I do wonder where Caseynotes was when the Cryptocurrencies prices were all declining over the past 12 months. What has got him interested now? Oh the prices are going up significantly and Bitcoin is outperforming most other assets. Which Cryptocurrencies is he trading right now? Is he long or short? When I research or spend any time and effort on any asset then it is with a view to potentially trade it otherwise why bother? It may be that he genuinely is interested in the asset class and he could be trading them but does not want to share. Who knows?
  20. I have just read this article and I am astonished at the sheer ridiculousness of it. How can a trader (must be classed as a professional) for it to even be possible to make such a loss on German Bonds. If you just look at their charts then they are so bullish and have been for a while. It does not take an intellect to work this out. One of my trading philosophies is to never bet against the trend as odds and probability are not likely to be in your favour. Another famous saying is to never bet against the German Bund! Betting Against Europe's Safest Bonds Costs Trader $22 Million https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-16/betting-against-europe-s-safest-bonds-costs-trader-22-million
  21. AI THAT SEES LIKE HUMANS DO MAY BE THE FUTURE OF AUTOMATED SEARCH & RESCUE ROBOTS https://www.firstpost.com/tech/science/ai-that-sees-like-humans-do-may-be-the-future-of-automated-search-rescue-robots-6653431.html Potential Investment Idea: There has been a recent drop / pullback / correction in this niche market. Once this drop has played out then there may be an attractive entry point for those who have not got any allocation in their investment portfolios in relation to this. Also for those who are already invested there may be an opportune moment to consider adding or topping up your investments in this area.
  22. Now for Gold my view today (it could change on Monday) is that if Gold 'Triple Bottoms' then there is the potential for a 'Long' Gold trade. If Gold follows Silver on its downward path then this potential would be eliminated. So I will stick my neck out again, be brave and make some potential trading suggestions BEFORE THE EVENT. Potential 'Long' Trade Idea 1: Any trading execution between $1270 - $1275 to go 'Long' seems like a good entry point if it does not break $1270 that is! I never have an exit price or target in mind. Why restrict profits? Hold the position for as long as the trend is in your favour. Only exit once the trend reverses and keep the position as long as you need to. Now the above trading strategy is a simple trading strategy that does not involve anything too complex or complicated and does not involve lines and arrow on charts followed by more lines and arrows! Potential 'Long' Trade Idea 2: Go 'Long' once the 20 DMA is passed on the 'daily'. Set initial stop loss at 200 DMA. Once in profit set 'Trailing Stop' based on your risk strategy. Only exit on any confirmed trend reversal. Potential 'Long' Trade Idea 3: Go 'Long' once the 20, 50 and 100 DMA's (they are quite close together) are crossed. This may increase the odds and probability in your favour but reduce your return as you may miss the price action prior to these being breached. Stop loss strategy the same as above. Potential 'Short' Trade Idea 4: Now for those of you who are not already 'Short' on Gold then you may wish to initiate a 'Short' trade once the 200 DMA is breached on the 'daily' chart on the downside. You may wish to consider setting a stop loss around the 100 DMA point but switching to a 'Trailing Stop' once in profit. This trade is unlikely but you never know! I have deliberately kept the trading ideas and execution very simple and tried not to make it complex at all. For those slightly more experienced traders you would set your stop losses based on your risk management strategy. You would also have a capital allocation strategy. So for example some of you would not stake more than 1% of your capital on any one trade. Your stop loss would say a have a maximum tolerance rate of between 1% - 5%. This is just an example and many traders will have different criteria. Now the three potential 'Long' trading ideas and the potential 'Short' trading idea I have given are just potential ideas. I am not suggesting they are right or are the best trading ideas. I am just trying to encourage others on the IG Community to actually discuss real trades and share real trading ideas. The easiest thing to do is to submit a post after post, start a new thread after thread and post links and charts after links and charts. The real value in the IG Community is for like minded traders to share trading ideas. What could be the best entry point. How would one identify that entry point. Why should one go 'Long' over 'Short', etc. I am not worried or scared if the four ideas above work or do not work. What is important is to start the process of improving the IG Community and offering value to any readers and posters alike. That value could lead to improved decision making in executing potential trades or even considering trades that one simply did not think of. Do not let asset class be a barrier. All asset classes will have potential trading opportunities both long and short. It does not matter if it is a commodity, cryptocurrencies, stock, indices, etc.
  23. @dmedin, Yes hindsight is a wonderful thing. 😁 You seem like someone who is willing to put the time and effort required to gain a better understanding of trading the markets. Trading is difficult. Consistently making profits year after year is more difficult and making large significant profits year after year is even more challenging. There is a lack of trading ideas and potential trades being posted as people are too scared in case they are wrong and others belittle them. Due to this fear there is hardly any trading suggestions being made for the future. This is from the 'so called' people who think they are mostly right and know best (or better than others). Where are the potential trading suggestions or potential trading possibilities from them? Where are the potential trade ideas or trade considerations from them?
  24. Silver is heading for a 'Triple Bottom' if it is not careful. There is a clear 'Support Zone' which is coming up should it continue its decline as I have highlighted in the chart below. Gold on the other hand is too trying to go for a 'Triple Bottom' and approach the 'Support Zone' which I have highlighted in the chart below. Both charts are bearish at the moment and this bearish stance is support by the price action for both Gold and Silver. There may well be a long opportunity coming up in the future but right now at this moment in time I cannot see a reason to go long.
  25. @dmedin, I am not too worried about making the wrong call as if you sit on the sidelines and wait for the near perfect trade then there is only so much profit you can achieve. You have to be able to identify trending assets in different asset classes and trade them using a trading system that works for you. If you merely sit on the sidelines waiting for the perfect indicator to be hit or an Elliot Wave to play out then the chances are you have missed the majority of the move and then decide either not to trade or the trend goes against you pretty quickly or goes against the technical analysis theory you are using. Price action is the key. Yes there is a speculative element and assumption based element to my trading but this has helped me in the past catch some big trends and moves whilst others are sitting on the sidelines and posting on IG Community all day long! Yes, I will get trades wrong and make losses along the way but that is part of trading. The key is to ensure that your winning trades make you more profits than your losing trades. Even if you win on 3 trades and lose on 7 trades out of 10 trades in say a month. I accept this strategy is not for everyone and you need a certain type of personality to adopt such a strategy but it meets my personality. I spend a lot of time monitoring price action and seeing how the price is behaving and reacting over different asset classes and will pull the trigger when my signals and indicators are met.
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