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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @Caseynotes, That is interesting. It seems IG has sensed an opportunity in the US.
  2. One of the key things to do is identify whether the trend weakens. If one does notice then one must follow the price action to determine an entry point for any potential 'short' trade. At the moment for me if the US 100 goes above the 7072 level then this could be a more serious rally than I thought rather than just a relief rally but we shall see. I have no idea which way this will go but the Fed announcement along with if there are positive US-China trade talks with positive earnings we could continue with this rally for longer than one envisages.
  3. The US Federal Reserve announced it would not be raising interest rates. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/us/politics/fed-interest-rate.html https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/federal-reserve-january-meeting-2019 Traders add to bets against further Fed rate hikes https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-futures/traders-add-to-bets-against-further-fed-rate-hikes-idUSKCN1PO2OG
  4. I would not suggest going 'short' just yet but be ready for any trend reversal as this will be a nice shorting opportunity when it arrives and it will as profits are taken, stop losses triggered and new shorts opened. This will lead to a sharp drop amplifying the move downwards as so often seen in commodities. The commodities market has always had a reputation to entertain the speculators!
  5. A bullish narrative is presenting itself for Precious Metals. I think we have witnessed large institutions beginning to reposition their portfolios by increasing their allocations towards Precious Metals.
  6. Gold and Silver have both flexed their muscles this evening once the US Federal Reserve announced it was not going to raise interest rates. Both are absolutely flying. It is amazing the impact the US Federal Reserve can have! I hope many of you are trading both Gold and Silver in terms of 'short term', 'medium term' and 'long term' at this moment in time? It does not matter if you are a day trader. You can day trade both Gold and Silver at the moment. If you are a longer term trader then you can also take advantage on the 'long' side. These opportunities in the likes of Gold and Silver do not come that frequently so one must pull the 'trigger' when such chances arrive.
  7. The US Federal Reserve has announced it is not going to raise interest rates. This has launched 'rocket fuel' for US indices at the moment. 6:55 pm - five minutes before 7:00 pm the fire was lit! We are witnessing the explosion. But after all fires there will be a period of smoke, firefighting and then the fire will be tamed...Enjoy the 'long' ride for now and the price action is allowing quick profits to be made and with leverage one is able to take advantage at such short term trading opportunities.
  8. At the moment US indices in general such as the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq are all rallying hard. The price action and chart clearly shows this. As I have said many times never trade against the trend so at the moment a short play is just far too risky and I would not advise it. I will be shorting the US indices but only when the price action dictates and a sharp drop/correction will be coming as profit takers exit positions, stop losses get triggered and fresh short positions enter. It will be quick and sharp but I am anticipating that it will arrive. At the moment just enjoy any long positions on the US indices but take profits more quickly as the reversal could come when you least expect and it could come soon.
  9. Gold and Silver are both holding up rather well and have not lost any of their recent gains yet. There will be a sharp correction (drop) make no mistake but they both seem in bullish mood at the moment to shine!
  10. The trend is your friend as they say! The trend is getting stronger and stronger and momentum is really building. The price action is upward and sharp. Lumber up another 1500+ points today.
  11. Lumber finished yesterday at around 40300 level.
  12. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are are a very important juncture. They could easily go upwards albeit a short move or drop down. I am watching the price action with anticipation as my assumption is that there is a large move downwards looming and I would like to participate in such a move with a 'short' position.
  13. It is 5:00 am and for the first time in a long while I think Gold and Silver can move upwards even if equities are rising. Silver hit $15.98 and I think it should hit $16.00 at some point today. Gold in my opinion will attempt over the coming days $1320. There is now a strong momentum behind Gold and Silver without extremely large volume. With potentially the volume still to come I think Silver could go as high as $20.00 in the coming future should economic uncertainty remain.
  14. @cryptotrader, One must know their audience. For professional traders who are experienced it does not matter whether I post line or candle charts as they will pay little attention to my charts. For new and inexperienced traders one must keep things as simple as possible and try and articulate matters in plain simple English including charts. I get many contacting me using IG's messaging service so I understand and appreciate my followers and those who read my posts. Therefore I deliberately keep things simple and my charts are no different. I get a lot of positive feedback from new and inexperienced traders who prefer and enjoy my simpler to follow posts. So I am catering for the audience that read my threads and posts. Line graphs present less information than candle charts so it depends on what type of trader you are as to which you decide to use and which you prefer. It is a personal choice but one that will be derived from your trading style and strategy. I find that line charts are a lot simpler and removes all the 'clutter' and 'noise' from the charts some of which can confuse you and not necessarily make it any easier for you to trade effectively or profitably. I tend to use a 'daily' timeframe when I trade trends and my position is held for as long as there is a trend. Therefore for me I do not need to see all intricate details which can be seen on candle charts. As a higher timeframe trader I prefer line charts as I want to look at a chart and get a sense of direction of the trend. I will switch and look at different timeframes but my 'default' is the 'daily'. I think more shorter time frame traders may prefer or have a use for candle charts. I find that the line chart provides a more clearer and visually simpler picture but that is just my personal preference. I think day traders may prefer candle charts but each to their own. Which do you prefer and why?
  15. Stunning performance from one of my favourite commodities of the past couple of years - Lumber. It is up 1166 points at the time of writing this post. The chart is trying to show a 'rocket' taking off!
  16. @elle, Some nice predictive modelling there. Testing assumptions through price action during a trend can really help even if your assumption is wrong. It helps gather valuable information and data. So one must not be worried or scared about being wrong and must embrace losses as they will occur. It is about minimising those losses.
  17. Gold and Silver are both continuing to make new higher highs and new higher lows which is an extremely bullish signal in my personal opinion. I think once the 200 day moving average curve begins to slope upwards it will attract a lot more buying pressure on the long side. The key is to identify trends to trade and attempt to get in as early as possible. Disclaimer: I am long both Gold and Silver but have adapted my strategy to day trade them both thus taking profits on a daily basis. I am trying to avoid going long on those days when they are both clearly trending downwards for the day. I am not shorting them as the longer term bias for the trend is upwards so will happily sit on the sidelines on those 'red' days. Of course there will be days when I make daily losses but the key is to continue trading whilst the longer term trend is upwards as on the balance of probability the odds should be slightly more in my favour of making greater profits than losses during this strong trend.
  18. I have a confession to make. I am day trading the US 100 both on the long and short side depending on the days price action. I am using the 1min, 30 mins, 1 hour and daily timeframes to assist me in my decision making. I accept it is not conventional but the experts will suggest using a specific timeframe and sticking to it and there is sound logic in that especially for inexperienced traders or those who are beginning their trading journey. I still believe at the moment (this could change) the long term trend has a downward bias but the volatility is providing a nice opportunity to day trade and I am trying to take advantage of this.
  19. If things were to turn sour on US indices then I see a potential 600 points on the 'short' trade. Now add leverage to this trade and you can see how attractive per point the US 100 short could be. Timing will be key. I got timing wrong on the previous occasion but I am opening and closing my positions more or less daily and taking the profits on down days. I am not trading on the long side and just remaining on the sidelines on those days as the longer term trend is still down on major US indices.
  20. The Nasdaq 100 is around 100 points down from yesterday. Trump has another round of talks with the Chinese this week. Earnings season is amongst us. Brexit vote. I think it will be interesting to see how UK markets close and how US markets open today.
  21. Gold and Silver are both trending higher than they were 24 hours ago.
  22. Gold is holding up rather well above the $1300 level and Silver is showing trend weakness but tomorrow could be a different animal altogether with the Brexit vote.
  23. It's after 10:00 pm and US indices are down and in the red just as expected. Markets will be jittery with Brexit as the UK is the world's fifth largest economy and has deep historical ties with major economies around the world including the US. If growth projections for the UK suffer as a result then it will have an impact on its major trading partners including the EU and US.
  24. @Mercury, Not all but for U.K. indices Brexit uncertaintly may relate to capital allocation strategies changing and position sizes reducing. Sound risk management!
  25. Yes just like the S&P 500 is ‘US 500’.
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