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TrendFollower

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Everything posted by TrendFollower

  1. @PandaFace, What I do not know yet is whether today's 4% move upwards in Natural Gas is the beginning of the next leg upwards (long trends can last a lot longer than one may think) or whether it is the beginning of the unwinding of the 'speculative froth' which will lead to stop losses triggering which will lead to trend followers shorting Natural Gas and along with way long trades closing? I would describe the trade you have describe as a pure speculative trade based on hope. There is nothing wrong with a speculative trade. I recently participated in two in Ripple and Stellar based on the price action taking them above 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages and was fortunate to exit both on very small profits but in hindsight it was the wrong trade. However, you have entered a speculative long trade with the trend and price action against you. There is a saying that never trade against the trend. The odds and balance of probability are not in your favour. You may get lucky and you may even be fortunate to make a profit from this trade. I will be interested to see how you fare on this trade. Your best 'hope' and I hate using that word in trading as words like 'hope' and 'luck' are like swear words in trading, is that there is a strong counter trend movement / trend reversal that is in favour of your trade. None of us can predict what is going to happen going forwards so this is a very interesting trade to study. Keep posting your thoughts on the trade you have executed as this will be a very good trade to share with the IG Community and well done for sharing it. It does not matter if the trade goes against you or you make a loss. It is what we can all learn from it which is the most important thing and I commend you on that. Nice one. 👍
  2. @Caseynotes, A couple of things. First of all why have you recently got 'Test' underneath your name? What makes this website and company credible? One begs the question why they are being so generous by giving for free? Especially from around $125.00!
  3. Trailing stop triggered. Very small profit and out! I managed a slightly bigger (though still very small) profit on Stellar but hopefully that will put to bed my more speculative nature. ?
  4. I do wonder if US Crude will now try and go for the psychological $50.00 area. Those who use Fibonacci retracements may feel that Oil has further downside to go. 76.4 % Fibonacci retracement from the recent high takes us around the $50.48 area. In my personal opinion I think this could be enough for it to briefly pass through $50.00, it may not be for long but one thing is for sure, Oil has been a strong short during the past six weeks, that there is no doubt about. What staggers me is that not one person on the IG Community has responded to my previous post by stating they are shorting oil. What better profit potential opportunity has presented itself in this same time period? I openly admit that I have made a grave error in not allocating my capital efficiently on this occasion and I have learnt a harsh lesson. One that I do not wish to repeat going forwards.
  5. I do wonder if US Crude Oil will now challenge the psychological $50.00 area.
  6. The smart trade would have or could still be (may not be too late)... Long Natural Gas and Short either Brent or US Crude Oil If it was not for Cryptocurrencies then I would have traded the above. I think I have learnt a valuable lesson and that is that I should have traded this over Cryptocurrencies (not because I do not believe in Cryptocurrencies) but the profit making potential opportunity on this trade was far greater than on any of the Cryptocurrencies that are available to trade on IG's platform during the same time period. A very harsh lesson learnt by me on this occasion. Trade the strongest trends. I trade both Commodities and Cryptocurrencies and where as I managed to trade Orange Juice and Lumber which were exceptional trades and trends I have got distracted by the Crypto space which has meant my capital allocation has not been effective or as efficient as it could have been. I have made a grave error not trading the above in bold and we all have limited capital to trade so capital allocation is very important. The one thing I would say is that there could be a monster opportunity to go Short Natural Gas as there will be a lot of speculative capital in Natural Gas right now. There could also be a nice opportunity to go long on Oil should a trend reversal present itself. I may have to liquidate some profits from my long term share portfolio to enter such a trade should it materialise. I will stress that I am not suggesting going short on Natural Gas right now. The only trade right now is long as it makes new higher highs.
  7. The smart trade would have been and still could be (might not be too late)... Long Natural Gas and Short Oil (either Brent or US Crude)
  8. @Caseynotes, I totally agree algos, robotics and artificial intelligence are the future. Creating and devising such a system requires a big capital outlay. It requires hiring specialist programmers and an extremely sound trading strategy. Something really only the top hedge funds can afford. I really do like your idea about which pattern was statistically most probable from the signals centre. That would be an interesting experiment. Let me know how it goes.
  9. @202925, No problem. That is ok. You may be right it may well be range bound but I cannot predict the future so I do not know that for sure based on current and more recent price action. Yes, I could do as you suggest but I will not be. I want to stay in this position as long as I can. No time limits. I will exit when the trend reverses. Until then I will remain in the position. One of the key principles of trend following is not to take profits too early and to let your winners run. If my trade was incurring losses then I would like to cut these losses quickly and move on. So then I would be looking to exit as early as possible. With Cryptocurrencies there can be extreme volatility so setting initial stop losses is extremely challenging as the risk is being stopped out and then the trend resuming in its direction of travel.
  10. @Caseynotes, Call me 'old fashioned' but I prefer to monitor price action of assets I am interested in trading and this will naturally identity the signals to me for opening / closing a potential trade. This method is more hard work but it means you are 'living and breathing' the trade and are in tune with the price action. These signals can be construed as a 'lazy' way in which you are relying on others and if the correct research has not been conducted and no fundamental understanding on why the price is behaving as it is then it can be very dangerous trading using such signals. Also this method can provide signals which are false breakouts or cannot anticipate 'vicious trend reversals' and for me there is nothing like good old 'watching the tape', Jesse Livermore style! But thanks for your response. I have had a look but there are not many assets if any that are of interest to me. As you will know I am a Cryptocurrency and Commodities trader. I tend to stick to those two assets as I simply do not have the time or capital to trade everything where there is a potential trend identified and trading opportunity. With Commodities I do tend to use fundamental analysis which is where my trading style differs from a 'typical' trend follower. It has served me rather well during my trades in Orange Juice and Lumber. In my experience the stronger the narrative, the stronger the potential trend.
  11. @Caseynotes & @CBMG, I just had a look at that but I am not sure. Have a look at this links below. http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/IG-Index-Autochartist.html https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/ig-markets-launches-autochartist-chart-pattern-recognition-tool/ What are your views?
  12. @zala, A very good question. Please see the link below from IG on volume. https://www.ig.com/uk/glossary-trading-terms/volume-definition I think the following paragraph is key: "Each market or exchange will track its own volume and distribute the data to traders. These volume reports usually come once an hour, but they are only estimates – for accurate volume figures traders have to wait until the end of the day." My personal opinion is that it will be close but not anywhere near as close or accurate as the actual amount of underlying contracts traded in the futures market. This is my personal opinion so it will be interesting to see what others within the IG Community think.
  13. @CBMG, May I ask who told you this? I think what you are referring to is the 'pencil' symbol on the left of the three dots and 4th from left towards right. Well that is how it shows up on my screen so I appreciate it may be different depending on how you have customised your screen. If you click on this you will see options such as 'Fibonacci Extension' and 'Elliott Wave (ABC)'. You will also see other options such as 'Gann Line' and 'Head and Shoulders' amongst others. I am assuming this is what you mean and and referring to.
  14. @Nelsy-Boy, I assume you are referring to 'Impulse Wave Pattern'? If so it is basically when there is strong price action in an asset which is in line with the main direction of the underlying trend. Those who follow 'Elliot Wave Theory' will be more familiar with this. It is also used when there is a strong downtrend in a particular asset with strong price action.
  15. @Mercury, No I cannot rule out another higher high on Oil but then again no one can. What I would say is that Oil seems unlikely to make a new higher high in 2018 based on the charts and looking at the time it took historically to make new higher highs. Having said that if some monumental news came out which could have a severe impact on Oil then anything is possible. At the moment it seems very unlikely that Oil will make a new higher high in 2018. As I mentioned before in a previous post many posts ago that I have not shorted Oil as my capital is being saved for Cryptocurrencies. I also previously stated that if I was trading Oil then at the time of my previous posts it would have been to open a short trade based on price action at the time of my previous posts. If you look at the chart (below) then it is very interesting. The 20 day moving average has crossed the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages and gone beyond downwards. I would have most probably opened a small short once the price had crossed the 20 day moving average and then added to my positions when the price crossed the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages. Oil has also crossed its 300 day moving average and is one it way towards 400 and 500 day moving averages as the chart below highlights.
  16. It will be interesting to see if Stellar can stay above 0.28 and try and hit the psychological 0.30. The downside risk is that there could be large correction as well. So far my long trade in Stellar has proved to be rather profitable. I did nothing too clever or fancy. I merely opened a long position based on price action and the price crossing the 20 and then 50 day moving averages. It has since crossed the 100 and 200 day moving averages. I accept the trade could have gone against me but at this point I know my exit will be profitable based on the trailing stop I have set.
  17. @anders, It is this upcoming fork that has stopped me even to attempt to trade Bitcoin Cash at this moment in time. There has been snippets of positive news on Bitcoin Cash recently but the upcoming fork creates far too much uncertainty for me at the moment. I will be very interested to see what happens to the price action after the upcoming fork.
  18. @Mercury, You obviously conduct some very detailed analysis and rules in place in order to open a trade. That is commendable. I do wonder if your methodology increases your odds of a successful trade? I appreciate in 'theory' it should. All the hard work you do in conducting such detailed analysis should be rewarded with more successful and profitable trades than most of us here on the IG Community. At the very least it should stack the odds in your favour. It would be interesting to know if such a method translated into superior trading performance. For me looking at the price action for Brent Crude and US Crude the only trade has been short from the start of October 2018 till present. That is nearly six weeks worth of price action. I have been pretty open and honest about such thoughts. If I am wrong then that is fine I have no issue with that. My thoughts are based simply on the price action and volume indicators using very simple and basic technical analysis. I wonder how many on IG Community have opened a short position on either Brent Crude or US Crude since October 2018? It would be interesting to know. If so why and what was the methodology behind opening the short? Different traders using different trading styles can interpret the data and the signals presented in different ways. This is what makes trading so unique and interesting. At times there can be no right or wrong as it does depend on timeframes for certain traders.
  19. @cryptotrader, Yes, I have acquired shares well over a year ago or maybe even two at slightly lower prices and similar prices that exist today. I really like their investment in BTL (listed in Toronto, Canada). Since I posted the RNS details the very next day it went down 20%+ as this is AIM after all! Vela has lots of potential and its market cap is pretty low and very attractive. That does not necessarily mean it is a good investment but I wanted exposure to BTL and I really like their investment in Portr Limited. I am acquiring Coinsilium and KR1 (formerly known as Kryptonite1 PLC) on any major price weaknesses as I think those two will be 'gems' of the future in the Crypto / Blockchain / Tokenisation space. Disclosure: I am not trading Vela, Coinsilium and KR1. I am investing in them for the long term.
  20. @Mercury, Just watch how quick Oil goes down from the start of October 2018 before it corrects compared to any recent historical uptrend move. The speed in which it moves downwards will be amplified with a mixture of short positions opening, profit taking, selling, etc. From my experience the balance of probability on short trades especially in commodities for a successful and profitable position (as long as stop loss risk management is sound and effective) is greater than long trades in commodities. That is just my personal experience and others may have a different experience. The downtrends seem to be stronger in commodities. Something to consider is volume and the data on open interest as these can be very effective indicators which can aid when making trading decisions.
  21. I have included the chart (below) which highlights the 'Volume' and 'Volume Weighted Moving Average'.
  22. @Caseynotes, thanks for this. I have found the link below which gives the free .pdf as @Caseynotes suggested. https://www.fx-arabia.com/vb/uploaded/3212_11399310873.pdf One must not underestimate the important volume and when combined with price action in my opinion are the key indicators to identify potential trends to trade.
  23. A very important factor that traders sometimes do not consider is 'Volume'. I look at volume especially when trading shares. Volume indicators will display the number of shares that have been traded during a particular time period. Conducting analysis on volume can be an important tool because it can reflect not just the opinions of traders out there but the real trading behaviour of traders in the market and can provide a second piece of information rather than just simply analysing price behaviour. A volume indicator can provide information to support a confirmation of a price trend and could be used to identify any trend reversals. Volume can give you an idea of the true strength behind the trend. However, just because the volume is high does not necessarily mean a stronger trend. There are two main indicator signals that one could use which are 'Convergence' and 'Divergence'. For those who are new to trading or are not sure what this means I will try and be explain it as simple as I can. Convergence is when the volume moves in the same direction as the price. Divergence is when the volume moves in the opposite direction of the price. When an uptrend is supported by volume convergence then it can show that there is greater interest / enthusiasm for the share which could lead to more buying and and thus possibly higher prices. There is no guarantee of this though. I use it when trying to increase the odds in my favour for a share trade. I do not trade shares that often but will when the right opportunity presents itself.
  24. @Caseynotes, absolutely. I agree with your points. Many traders do not feel comfortable shorting. When I first started trading I too did not feel comfortable shorting. It was 'Trend Following' that really changed my way of thinking. If your aim is to profit from price movements and we all know markets trend up, down and sideways then it really does not matter if you profit from going long or short. In fact to maximise your profit if you are trading a particular asset class would be to go long and short depending on the trend to really give you the best chance in maximising your potential profits. I accept shorting could be deemed higher risk than going long as upward trends last longer than downward trends generally. Downward trends are more stronger by nature which one could argue could tilt the odds in your favour if the trade is executed well and stop losses are managed. This is where risk management really comes to the fore. This has been an interesting discussion which is what the IG Community is all about. I think there is not enough 'real time' sharing of trading ideas where the poster actually executes a trade in real time and shares it with the IG Community. I think that is what is required and I am sure it will come.
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