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Mercury

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Everything posted by Mercury

  1. Interesting! US Futures and FTSE100 seem to like the jobs data, do they think it is indicative of a weak NFP tomorrow and therefore supporting Fed procrastination on interest rates as indicated by Yellen's recent NY speech? How long will it last before jitters sink back in? Does anyone have a view on what a strong or weak NFP will result in? I think we are back to bad economic news is good news for markets because of Central Bank interference...
  2. Which has just produced a spike down close to that congestion zone and gave me my Pos Mom Div. Time for a Long? Could be a bit more volatility and for the more caution a break of my upper tramline could be a safer bet.
  3. Dear IG, I'd like to trade the Russell more but am put off by the minimum per point amount of £50, which seems out of step with the other indices. Can this be reduced? Say £25 or £20 even?
  4. While leaving Oil and stock indices to do their thing I have been having a look at FX. USD volatility due to the Fed seems to dominate at present and the EUR and GBP crosses are in a difficult W3-4 place with whipsaw action that will kill ya. AUS and CAD are a bit different, thought still impacted by USD volatility of course but in the case of AUS mining seems to be a bigger factor and for CAD it is Oil. Given that last I thought I would share my analysis on USDCAD to see if anyone has a view. Having taken some trades short since the turn I have been wondering if we really did see a W5 top or could this be a W3-4 retrace. If CAD does track Oil and my analysis of Oil is correct that we have not yet seen the bottom then perhaps we have not yet seen the top of USDCAD. At a minimum, if Oil is in a retrace back down with another leg up to go (not yet sure of that, we could have had the turn back down to W5 and true bottom) then surely USDCAD will rally soon? On the Weekly chart it is clear that this pair has gone higher in the past and also we did not get a negative momentum divergence, which I would expect to see at a major turn, so perhaps this is still to come? On the Daily a decent tramline has been broken but that is often the way with a W4 (as the W4 turn sets up the "real" tramline) and there is support/resistance just below the 62% Fib at 12850ish. Note no Neg Mom Div on the Daily either at the possible W5 turn! I have 2 alternative valid EW counts (a 1-5 and an A-B-C) and strong Pos Mom Div building, suggesting a rally is imminent. On the Hourly I have a decent count on the final wave down 1-5 but where will it conclude? I am waiting for a fresh lower low and Pos Mom Div at the turn back up, maybe at the support/resistance point (12850). If I see that I will take a Long and hope for at least a decent rally if not a W5 high high on the Daily! here are the charts, look forward to your thoughts: 
  5. £50 minimum isn't it? At lease on spreadbetting platform it is £50, unless you are getting preferential treatment, at which point I will throw my toys out of the pram :smileylol:
  6. Hi C, The two shoulders are represented by the blue circles in my previous chart in the thread with a blue line running through them being the neckline. As I said in that original post I am not that confident in this set up because it comes mid cycle rather than at a major turn (unless of course this is a major turn...?) and on the hourly rather than the Daily (which I prefer for H&S formations) and Oil can be spiky, which means it doesn't obey the norms of charting that well. Still the confluence of a potential neckline and the bigger Fib 38% and the small fib 62% does offer an enticing entry point if we see price kiss and bounce back down from this area. Even without the H&S line a confluence of 2 Fibs from different but related moves is usually a decent bet. Chart added here for convenience (the rightmost red circle show the potential short area I am tracking towards): 
  7. Sorry, should have added that there is a junction between the neckline and the 38% Fib (between the 18 Mar high and 29 March low). This is just above the small rally Fib 62% and could be a good bet if it travels that far. May take a few hours so patience is required.
  8. Looks like it is the retrace W1-2 scenario that is emerging rather than the immediate break down. Seeing the same on Shell Oil. Fib 50/62%, neckline kiss? Dunno but should bee a Short around here somewhere. Let us know if you spot a good entry point.
  9. I had a Short near the turn but cashed in as I am expecting a retrace (1-2 or fresh highs I'm not sure, hence cashing in). This does pay for my 2 shorts on Dow and S&P500 with stops above recent highs, a set up a particularly like to create (free bets basically and in this case a small over all profit). I would probably have held if I could trade the Russell at a lower stake level (IG please note!) I think it is wise to let it run and see if we get a turn before yesterdays highs or fresh highs and then consider the trade but I prefer the S&P and Dow as the risk on level is lower. I chiefly use the Russell as a triangulation guide and lead indicator for the other markets and only trade it when I'm really, really, "certain" of a major trend change, which I'm not just now - hence the 3 scenarios.
  10. Really! I make quite a lot of money trading Gold, but then again I am a long term or swing trader and not a day trader. If you spot a good entry, like the bottom of the market at 1050 a while back, which I did, and then ride the wave there is a lot to gain. Of course it depends on how big your stake is. For me there is nothing more satisfying (and financially rewarding) than getting onto a long trend early and letting it ride (doesn't take much time at all). Depends on you trading strategy and management style I guess.
  11. Gold just missed the 38% Fib retrace off the strong recent rally. A lot of people think we have seen the bottom of the Gold Bear and I have even seen some suggesting a 20-30 year Bull... Not surprisingly these people are advocates of "The Big Drop", but they are respected money managers so... Anyway, on the hourly chart it looks like the W4 has indeed completed and we are in the early stages of the W5 to complete this first move of the Bull (if true). A W1-2 up could be done? (another leg down is not out of the question at all here). With NFP coming up we could easily get movement in Gold. I see 2 scenarios: We get that other leg down to complete a clear A-B-C to a W2 (with he W4 remaining intact as a turning point at 28 March) and then the next wave rally begins (maybe around the 76% Fib) The market rallies away through my upper tramline. I plan to take a Long if there is another leg down near the 76% Fib and place a Stop in order above the upper Tramline to catch either scenario. NFP volatility will play havoc I am sure but if we get a similar response as that seen at the FOMC release then I'd want to be in on this. I buy the Bull market narrative and this next move should go to the area of 1400 before a major retrace (always another opportunity...) Here is the Hourly chart: 
  12. Hi Mr Jakes, There is a suggestions section on the main community page where you can communicate directly with IG people and the rest of the users. Also there is an active US markets thread where the Dow is discussed regularly. As an FYI, we had a discussion on the merits of the Dow vs the S&P500 in which people seemed to prefer the S&P because it is the biggest market and much more diverse than the DOW (30 large caps only). See also a Thread on the Russell 2000 small cap market as a trend setter. When you explore the community threads and actively participate in the discussions I think you will get a lot of benefit on your chosen markets. If no one is talking about something you are interested in then start and thread and see if it generates any interest, Good luck and welcome, Mercury
  13. Apologies Condor, I neglected to post my Daily big picture chart, thanks for showing yours. I'm not sure about support levels yet and of course if "the big one" hits it will blast through all support levels but we aren't there yet. As with all the main indices there are still at lease 3 possible scenarios: Bear market: now just completed major W1-2 retrace and turning into a W3 but this will trace out as a fairly chunky W1-2 retrace before the massive W3 tsunami hits (probably in the Summer some time as Rich88 suggested). Bear market but with another final leg up to go (i.e. the current turn is a Wa now down to Wb before Wc rally). For this to work Wb must be very deep and maybe your 960 support level comes into play for that? This could go down to 76% Fib or beyond. I haven't drawn the 76.4% Fib (**** infuriating that this is automatic!, 88.6% too),which is around 980 so close to your 960. Bull market still intact: the movement we are in a a big A-B-C with the Wc concluding Feb 11/12. If this is right then the rally up has been in a 1-3 of 5 and now we should get a W4 retrace (or of course W3 not yet concluded...) I cannot tell yet which scenario is most likely and certainly the dovish noises from the Fed don't help the Bear case (which I believe to be the natural place for this market to be in if not for Central Bank interference in what is supposed to be a free market...). Having said that the market has not been fully behind the Fed or other CBs of late, hence the sharp rally then fall backs we have been getting around FOMC and NFP time. There are a lot off jitters out there, why? Because the market is running too hot (CAPE levels are at or near all time highs, especially in the US), which is ironic as it is non US markets that are more Bearish in my view. All we can do for now is trade what is in front of us and my analysis suggests to me that anyway you cut it a retrace of significance is on the cards. We will have to read the tea leaves in that as it progresses to decide which scenario is in play and in all I would expect a significant rally back after the drop. The best way to play this in my view is to be a swing trader, ride it down then reverse and make your assessment on the way back up as to whether the rally will run into all time highs or reverse into "The Big One". Because another leg up in a W3 cannot be fully ruled out practice good money management using stops and max account risk rules. Here is the Chart: Let me know if you have any questions and especially comments that are contrary to my own assessment. 
  14. Fair points and I agree but as you say, short term volatility only. Oil is not a market I would ever advocate for day trades, far too spiky and subject to bigger picture forces for that. Therefore, so long as your trades are protected against the short term volatility at NFP release you should not need to worry about that particular data. Unlike other markets where FOMC and NFP can trigger a turning point or accelerate an existing trend, I don't think this is the case for Oil or commodities generally as the market is much more global and (in the case of Oil at least) governed by some very big and influential players.
  15. I don't use pivots so can't comment specifically but as you know markets never move in straight lines so I anticipate a retrace of this downward move early on. Whether that happens today or tomorrow around NFP I can't say. So far the whole looks like the rally end was reached on 18 March followed up by a W1-2 (all the way to the 88% Fib) and then back down. Assuming this is a W3 (or a Wc) then another W1-2 before the bigger move down is likely. Once again I am struck by how eriely similar this pattern playing out is to last November... For now I am happy with my Short at the W2 turning point yesterday with close stop and will await NFP events before considering another position. The only thing that would drive me to take another Short would be a decent small W1-2 but I'll be watching the US markets for correlation on that. We really need the US to give up on their optimism here.
  16. Probably right that the movement today will not offer a day trade but it may very well offer an excellent medium term trade entry. If my EW count is right then we have seen a completion of a 1-3 (or Wc) and can now expect an A-B-C retrace back down (A Wb of a larger A-B-C is still firmly ont he cards. The point here is that under any scenario the indicated direction is down so finding good short entry points is the name of the game (for now). On the hourly chart I have a move completed with yesterdays price action labeled as either an A-B or a 1-2 followed by a sharp drop. I might expect this to retrace a bit to form a 1-2 of a W3 (or Wc) OR it could charge on down very fast. In the former scenario the Fib 50%/62% (Brown Fib on the chart below) could be good Short entry points but the Head & Shoulders neckline could also play a part (use this for stop levels on any initial trade is going in on the Fibs.). In the latter scenario a break of the recent lows and the down-sloping trendline pair (brown lines) could indicate the fast drop is on. How I playing this is to set a Stop in order below the recent lows to catch the latter scenarion and a limit order at the 50% Fib. Of course I may adjust these levels based on how things evolve. BTW, not sure NFP is that relevant for Oil, have you found it to be so? Here is the chart: 
  17. Could be but also could be that we still have a Wb and Wc to go of a Big picture 3-4 retrace rally. Time will tell. Useful to be short for this though as then you have the option to hold or cash. I have a few positions so I can cash some and hold the rest. Best of both worlds.
  18. Very good, I'm short at 6215. Also Short on the US markets and stop proteced at B/E. Let's see how we go.
  19. Rich, Good time to short with US turning down and fTSE about to close? If you do keep the stops tight.
  20. Very spiky beast is Oil and I wasn't very confident in the Head & Shoulders (I prefer to rely on them at major turns, which I don't think this is). However it did meet resistance at the 50%fib after the oil stocks data release caused a spike. It could very well go up to the 62% but at present the retrace in A-B-C set up looks decent. I am leaning towards the A-B rather than 1-2 on my brown labels for the moment but either way it looks set to drop from here of from a slightly higher point. Shell had rallied back to the 76% (probably also spurred on by the stock indices rally in general after the usual Yellen blah blah) but finding resistance there (also coincidental with the 38% Fib off the previous rally). A touch on the Shell down-sloping tram is still possible (if Brent does go up one more leg) but otherwise also looking set to continue a retrace in A-B-C formation. Brent chart: 
  21. Is the Russell2000 showing the way again? Possible final leg up still to go but strong resistance around the 1115 mark. The think red line shows previous support/resistance points. 
  22. Tricky call. Until it surpasses the 18 March high (2037) a Short could work but I'd keep stops tight. Alternatively, with so much upward pressure about today and NFP on Friday it might be worth waiting to see how it plays out.
  23. I may be clutching at straws here but there is a remarkable symmetry between the 2 charts below. One is today and the other is from November (week 1). The pattern is almost identical and in November week 1 we also had a Central Banker speech on Tuesday (Draghi this time instead of Yellen but does it matter?) followed by ADP on Wednesday and NFP on Friday. Could history repeat itself? Charts: 
  24. Classic Chartists 2nd kiss on the lower triangle line. With Oil also making a possible Head & Shoulders Kiss it is shaping up for a resumption of the pull-back. I guess we will see in the coming hours if this is right. 
  25. That American stock markets are overly optimistic places is evident in yesterdays response to me, really no news at all drove this when you think about it, just some of the usual Fed bull (pun intended...). What is encouraging for this thread is that the FTSE100 seems to be diverging from the US markets. The Dax may be as well and and Japan is decidedly bearish (interesting when you think that a lot of investment advisors tell you to invest in Japan because of QE!) also Oil and US markets are no longer correlated (if they ever really were...). That said it is hard to totally disconnect the influence of the US on world markets... Still looking at the FTSE without worrying about the US I would say we are still in an overall downward move. Price is currently at the Fib76% and resisting but a break of this and, obviously, a fresh high on the rally from 11 Feb would suggest at a minimum another leg up on the rally (as with the US). Note the Dow is getting close to eclipsing the Christmas high (only 100 points in it), if that happens then the new all time highs scenario comes into play and I can't see the FTSE/Dax resisting such a move. The next few days should shed some light on this. Right now I would be comfortable taking a short on the FTSE at the 76% fib, which also coincides with my down-sloping daily chart tramline (red line) (it doesn't map accurately on the hourly chart on PRT for some reason) but keeping stops close. 
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