Mercury

Potential break lower in Gold and Silver. It has been a bit whip-lashy of late so I will not be confident until I see key support horizontals broken but it is looking promising for a continuation of that bearish retrace.

Rally is looking good. Currently experiencing a small consolidation pause. I would expect a continuation up from here, although some further bearish correction is clearly possible before the rally continues to its next phase.

AUD seems to be holding in consolidation around the daily chart trend line retest zone, or a bit under. Seems to be more buoyant than the other pairs at present, could hold here while others continue to retrace lower to their respective support zones.

Short Arabica is going well. Small rally on opening offered a chance to pyramid a bit but at present I see this as a counter trend move rather than a reversal. That said the pin bars on the weekly chart (last week and this so far, obvs not done yet) are suggesting it could be something more. In the meantime my first target is around the 12600 level and then let's see. Nice to have something to get you teeth into while waiting for US open and USD to resolve...

In addition it is a mistake, IMO, to seek to find reasons for market moves of a short term nature. The MSM constantly seek to feed people a diet of this kind of post hoc rationalisation. For me it goes into the "who cares" file, but then I am not a day trader, perhaps it is more important for them. The key market mover is sentiment (greed/fear). It is often NOT rational. Sometimes the market reverses because traders believe it will and want to lock in profits. Professional traders are judged on profit, especially so as we near the end of the year. This is also what drove the turn in Gold/Silver when many were talking it up, up and away. This sentiment, human nature if you will, is what EWT seeks to map. It is inexorable and there are many ways to spot it, some use support/resistance (or supply/demand) levels or ladders, others use EWT and Fibonacci retraces. It's all just a means to the same end.

Quite a number of IG clients that I am aware off went Long prior to the exit polls on the pull back and cashed around 1.35, which was a zone of resistance, some reversed Short, as did I, seeking a gap close. Secondary target is a retest of the Flag breakout (12950 - 13000) before the next rally phase. These are all retail, so not just the big boys. Thinking about GBPUSD as all about GBP is an error. It is mostly about USD. If you look at EURUSD and AUDUSD you will see a very similar pattern from 10PM on Thursday (exit poll). GBPUSD was amplified by the election and the nature of Cable, which tends to be spiky relative to EURUSD for instance, a bit like Silver is to Gold perhaps. Generally major volatility inducing events such as elections and bug data releases are to be avoided unless you really have a feel for the market, better to wait and see how it pans out of be in early and stop protected. Rather than the so-called big boys seeking to trap retail it is perhaps more about algo impacts, and retail trying to follow and not being nimble enough. This is generally not my game, although the gap close Short was too tempting to pass up. I stick to longer term position taking, which obviates the need to worry too much about specific data releases, although clearly an election is a special event. I remain long term bullish GBPUSD (bearish USD) but we may see some further retrace price action before this gets back on track.

Hmm, not everyone wants to score points, although many seem to want to do that so your skepticism is understandable. If you want to discussed it ok otherwise I will leave you to your misery.

BoJo is no more of a liar than McDonnell or any of them. In reality they tell the electorate what they want to hear to secure the election. Tony "honest there's weapons of mass destruction in them yonder sand dunes" Blair is the past master. Often they seem to be lying to themselves as in Gordon Brown's "no return to Tory boom and bust" a double lie in fact, whether to convince the electorate or to bolster their own faith in themselves who knows. The notion that professional traders are targeting retail traders, which seems to be what you are suggesting, have suggested in the past, is not true. The pros vie with each other, retail is a tiny infinitesimally small part of the market. The elephant is completely dispassionate about the ant he squashes inadvertently. I'm curious, are you a technical trader or a fundamentals trader (and what do you mean by fundamentals, how do you analyse the fundamentals?) or a data/news trader? What markets do you focus on? Do you have a good sense of the ebbs and flows of the markets you trade? From your posts I cannot tell.

Watching AUDUSD to see if it fails the daily channel line retest following a prior breakout. Signs are looking good for a USD bear resumption, which should see this retest fail. If we see a fail and then a break above 6950 I see a long term bull phase emerging.

Hmm, how often does an all time low in employment last for a long time? And what happened in the 1970s through to the early 1980s I wonder... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50820280

Early days but looks like a possible turn on the Dax with most others showing similar signs. If GBPUSD and EURUSD stage a rally this could provide some additional short term impetus. Gold/Silver has been quite buoyant of late, maybe the gold bugs sense a stocks correction? One to watch.

So looks like EURUSD has finally broken out of that weekly channel (or ending channel?) line and after a limited rally coinciding with the UK election result it has retraced back down BUT not as aggressively as GBP, hence the EURGBP trade I put on (see my Triad thread for details on that). This Triad assessment is relevant for EURUSD as well as IF GBPUSD does turn back up, as I believe it will, then EURUSD should rally harder. So far that is what we seem to be seeing. On the technicals front, if the whole move up from wave 2 (brown) is a wave 1 (light blue) then the retrace so far hit the Fib 38% and is currently rallying. Clearly a break back above the wave 1 (light blue) is what we need to confirm a continuation. Because this is the second retrace of the move not the first a Fib 38% level is quite normal, especially is this does turn out to be a trend changing move... However we need to guard against a reversal back to the Fib 50% area too.

My personal trade of the week (not a day or week trade, that was/is Coffee short but a medium term play) is Long EURGBP. The markets were full Bullish GBP after the election result but that has reversed since. I thing GBP will resume its bullish trend but EUR has more pent up potential in the medium term and also benefits from some clearing up of uncertainty. Currently the Brexit "deal" looks to heavily favour the EU, BoJo should renegotiate/play hard ball now he has a significant majority however political expediency to get it done will likely dominate over a more sensible and balanced deal. From a technical perspective there has been a sizeable bearish phase, as signaled some time ago on this thread, which has progressed in a 1-5 motive wave pattern. Markets move in waves and I think this is a wave 1 off the turn back in August so the next phase should be a relief rally (wave 2). I would expect this to carry at least to the Fib 50% level and once we get the turn I see a large bearish wave 3 phase, which would align to a large Bullish GBPUSD phase to come with EURUSD lagging or reversed. Note the turn up is on a long term support level with oscillators over sold and emerging back up and PMD on the daily.

Turns out it was a good place to go long @dmedin, although I didn't. I am seeking a much more definite pull back to get Long again. I did trade the previous move down for a decent day trade and now possible another presents itself. Not for the fair of heart this one but price is at a major long term support/resistance point and the market is due (as much as that can ever be said, especially of softs) a correction.

The price gap might suggest $1.11 but first price has to break above the recent highs. A contrarian view would be that if USD turns bearish again and Stocks also put in a pre Christmas bearish phase (a repeat of last year? surely not possible...) then the Yen strengthens from here. And as I write Stocks are moving south...

Depends on how you visualise it and spot turns. I was looking for a 3-4 and maybe a retest of the Flag breakout however when the election result caused a large gap (only on the 1H) and the market stalled the day after, with a likely USD relief rally in play I went Short tactically to the Gap close you mentioned and cashed. Now I am looking to see if we get a wave 4 turn here or a retest of the Flag breakout. I favour the former scenario as it fits my longer term view. So for now, unless and until price action provided an alternative, I see GBPUSD turning into a rally to complete the larger wave 1 (blue), which should complete at twice the Flag median point (not withstanding spikes) so that's $1.38-1.40 as a target. After than we should see a retrace wave 2 that should, if everything has progressed according to the scenario, react back to the Fib 50% and a retest of the Flag support zone. For this to happen though I would expect a general USD turn down, although there is nothing to stop GBP diverging as it has done in the past.

Don't see the Fakeout @dmedin, but my long term channel lines are in a different position to yours, can't quite make out where yours is from the chart you posted. My analysis has a breakout of the weekly line (or that potential neckline you pointed out previously) and a failure to break a key support level resulting in a relief rally (in prog). Now than the current phase has breached the previous turn (A on my 1H chart) the market could turn to complete an A-B-C at any point, indeed it may be in the process of doing just that. It could equally retrace up to a more conventional resistance zone. Currently most major USD pairs are in retrace (USD bullish). Of course DX is dominated by the Euro so it is quite possible for DX to turn behind a Euro turn, maybe with one other in the basket (USDJPY perhaps) and leave others still struggling against USD (like GBP). Short term some further USD strength is likely, albeit varied across the various pairs but long term I remain bearish USD on the basis of the breakout.

Brent seems very reluctant to break out. With USD rising, at least temporarily, and with a possibility of a stocks rotation down (before Christmas? surely not!!!) Oil looks to me like at a minimum another leg down within the rising channel is on. Depending on how price action progresses I would also be looking for a break of the lower channel line to set up a deeper retrace to the Fib 50-62% levels, which would set up a wave 2 turn into a strong wave 3 rally. Outwith any particular Oil supply/demand issues, which trump everything else, A period of stocks weakness would be indicated and possible USD strength during a bearish retrace in Oil. As indicted I am Short Oil for a short term tactical trade but remain longer term bullish.

Possible turn to the downside on Dr. Copper at the Fib 62% level. If this runs stocks could keel over.

Breakout and failed retest on the 1H, looking for a next leg break higher. Nice to be away from the UK election with this pair...

Before it was potential. Now it is confirmed. USD is one of the biggest broad market influencers. I wonder what other pivots a significant USD bearish phase will reveal?

The Dax doesn't appear to like the Fed issuance. Maybe the SP500 doesn't like it either, or maybe the USD collapse is weighing on sentiment. Either way there is a decent chance this is a pivotal point.

USD punching a lower low. Looks like the USD bear phase is on!

Similar to AUDUSD and GBPUSD this pair could be set for a sustained run. A turn at the Fib 62% 1H chart, has been followed up with a short term consolidation breakout to the down side. I am finding both AUD and CAD easier to trade in advance of the UK election.

Aussie has staged a mini breakout (higher high) after a retrace to the Fib50/62%. Now approaching the long term channel line, a breakout of which could open the floodgates. As with my alternative GBPUSD analysis this pair could be in for a contrarian medium to long term bull run if the USD breaks down. Wishy washy Fed could do it.