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Everything posted by Mercury

  1. Mercury


    Megaphone form! that would be an ending signal if it break lower.
  2. I can see that too, in fact there is a bit of a bid against USD on multiple pairs just now, including the Yen, which will be interesting if sustained...
  3. Mercury


    I guess after such a ramp up it will drop like a stone when it does go. I expect Tesla to retrace to between 850-900 before the wheels really come off. Of course I wouldn't bet on it given the current levels of euphoria but that will change for no apparent reason...
  4. Mercury


    Most of the time yes, if you are a longer term swing trader. You have to wait for the right moments when all your rules are met, likelihood of success is high and risk exposure is low. Once you are in a trend then buy the dips (or the opposite) is the way to go, leveraging your previous in the money positions. Then you need to be clear on exit strategy so you don't follow the trend off the cliff edge with the other lemmings. Right now I don't see a trade on stock indices for longer term swing traders, only for day traders. Gold/Silver may offer something Short if Stocks fly, NFP will be a key for that scenario as the reverse may be true. The only market that seems clear (ish...) is USD up, for now. Commodities seem to be back into a bear market, the reflation trade being cancelled (or suspended maybe). I don't trade Copper but the turn I spotted was the right place to go Short if you wanted to. May get a retest of the breakout point, which could offer another way in to a Short as down seems to be the way of it. Oil is at a critical point and may go either way; Oil marches to the beat of its own drum. Softs are also back in bearish territory for the moment. So if you are a day trader then in and out quick, don't leave a position open over night and certainly not over a weekend. If you are a long term trader, wait for the fog to clear. Maybe today with NFP, although possibly not immediately, depends on the print. Will bad news be bad again or a signal for the Fed to get out the printing press? Will good news push the melt up to even crazier levels? Will a mediocre print cause an initial move one way followed by a reversal? Who know in this crazy market?
  5. Mercury


    Are we there yet? Not sure. Won't be until after the fact, like everyone else. As we come to the last of the big ticket economic data releases and people wonder what a big miss means or hope for a big beat to drive the crazy gang higher I wonder what a near miss would mean. ISM manufacturing was a decent beat and back above 50, for now, but ISM non manufacturing was mixed, a sign of things to come..? Apple is at an interesting point now as it looks like a decent shout for a final wave 5 of 5 is there with strong NMD on Weekly and Daily charts. Tesla has blinked, will probably retrace back up a fair bit before any capitulation but the case for the Top is there. Can't trade it Short until there is a clear signal to. Wouldn't trade it Long because of the risk of a fast and major reversal, hmm what's a trader to do..? Wait for NFP I guess.
  6. Sure, if you want 300 points at the end of the move (i.e. risky). If you do fancy a Long trade then you should cover with a stop at BE as the price approaches the potential turning point and reverse in bear signals. For me I would wait for the test of the resistance zone.
  7. Check out the weekly chart... Anyone got a bullish scenario?
  8. Until it reverses, which is the whole point of my post. If you are a daytrader or a scalper ok but if you are a longer term trader then the risk is too high of getting caught out by a sudden reversal, especially if you are not sat glued to the screens all day, which most are not. I am the latter so buying when the market is high makes no sense and even if I am wrong I will be fine to be wrong and stand aside until I am right and look at other markets that are less insane.
  9. If consider that we are nearer the top than the bottom then the greater potential must surely be with the downside. The issue is when...
  10. So buy the dips again but what next? There are 3 scenarios for me, the third is a prolonged sideways move but given the Tech drivers and data release spasms and the overall extreme levels of valuations (and therefore potential fear or a sharp reversal) I don't thing the sideways scenario has a high probability. Earnings seasons and economic data will probably either spur the perma-bull,this time it's different, don't fight the Fedm dip buying or cause a fear driven sudden drop. The US markets are leading, no surprise there, so this is where we must watch for signs of cracks. Was yesterdays Nasdaq wobble one such? While waiting for the earnings season and economic data to reveal themselves, and notwithstanding coronavirus scares or any other macro events as yet unforeseen, I looks at the technicals to see if there is anything to watch out for. Using the Dax, which is approaching another ATH, what I see is the following: The weekly chart shows a potential Flag (which could also be a 1-2, i.e. the beginning of a long rally). The chartist convention is that the Flag marks the halfway point on the rally. A projection suggests a bull phase end at circa 13,700 (it isn't accurate of course so can fall short or spike through and still be valid). And ending waves are trick customers to map. EWT 1-5 count possibly coming to an end with the 3-4 being the recent bearish drop and recovery. NMD building on weekly and daily charts (and also on shorter term charts) Oscillators over bought or approaching this level on all chart time frames, but not there quite yet. Nice 1-4 (green) on the Daily chart from the Flag breakout, that would put the market in the final wave 5 of this move. Net I see the two scenarios as follows: The wave 5 (green) ends soon and marks the top out on the Dax, with maybe a double top (may not coincide with a US large cap top out, there may be one more leg up on these but only after a sizable correction) The Flag is really a 1-2 and the market takes off like a rocket and wont look back for some time. Gold/Silver would plummet on such a scenario I'd imagine... Who knows which will materialise, or maybe that going nowhere scenario will. For me I will only trade stocks on the Short side now but if the stock do take off like a rocket then there are opporunities elsewhere that will not keep me awake at night worrying about the inevitable stock market crash... US NFP is the next pivotal moment for stocks, I'd expect to see higher highs on US large caps and the Dax before any further bearish action. Note: there is one other scenario but this is more for the US large caps so I'll hold that over until see that correction.
  11. Agree @Level_Trader but I see circa 10,950 as a key support zone, which if broken should see a test of the 1 Oct 2019 low, which if tested I think it will not hold and then we are into lower low territory. From a trading perspective I prefer GBPUSD as there are ore points on offer, potentially.
  12. GBPUSD approaching key support again, will it break down this time? 12,900 just below and then into open country. Technical possibility for another relief rally before the Bear gets its claws back in but seems more bearish at present to me.
  13. Opps for got to add the chart.
  14. I agree, the relief rally on USDJPY continues. The channel is holding. The previous bear move gap is a likely to be closed. The long term trend line could well be tested and if it holds and send price back down, with either or both stocks and USD also falling then that will be a decent Short opportunity. I would be looking for either a straight 1-5 up or a more whipy A-B-C plus NMD at the turn and Stochastic & RSI coming out of overbought. Until then sit back and watch. I disagree with this as there is almost always a gap on DX opening because it closed when the underlying FX pairs do not. I would want to see a clear gap on EURUSD and I don't. There is one on GBPUSD but I think that is a breakaway gap on a stronger bearish phase. I see USD remaining bullish for a while yet, maybe to 100. See above but basically you do not trade a counter trend complex retrace, you wait for it to terminate, otherwise you get killed in the whipsaw...
  15. As mentioned in my GBPUSD thread, EURGBP turned bullish again at the Fib 62% and now looks set on a fast move back up.
  16. GBPUSD turned just below the Fib 50% (EURGBP just below the Fib 62%). Looks like the bear move is fully on. Outside chance of a reversal but a break to a new lower low would negate that so first up 12,940 and the 12,900 to get this pair into clear space below.
  17. Well she knows a lot about geopolitics from her uni degree and extensive work experience. Oh!
  18. So Oil is done. $50 on Brent is fast approaching. Sell baby sell..! Or maybe not. Oil is a market that all too often goes in unexpected ways. The price action is seemingly screaming bear but that is usually when things take a turn... I have no fundamentals on this other than an interesting piece on Real Vision that suggested Oil is indeed more scarce than we are currently being led to believe, and my own previously stated assertion (based on Energy experts views and reports) that Oil will remain a core component of the global energy mix for many years to come, and probably for all of my lifetime (I'm not 80 or anything!). Note also that $50 (this might be WTI) is often quoted as a key level for US shale producers profitability, although that might be different now that most of the capital investment is in the ground! That is another reason the industry will not want the oil price to drop BTW... So my contrarian thoughts are based on the above general thoughts plus the technicals as follows: On the weekly chart the form of the move from late 2018 to May 2019 does not look much like a counter trend rally (not an A-B-C) so my working hypothesis is that this is a wave A, which should be followed by a B-C and therefore a higher high than circa $75. The price action since then and to date has been chaotic with lots of whipsaw, this is consistent with a wave B rather. Currently price is not far off the $50 previous bear phase turning point. A wave B would turn before this and price is currently at some strong support with PMD and a 1-5 count down on the recent bear move (i.e. wave C - green- of wave B - Blue). There is an unclosed gap on the current bear phase. On the Daily key oscillators are oversold and beginning to reemerge out of the oversold zone. No clear PMD but that is often the case with a wave B I have found. On the 1H the PMD returns on the most recent low and there is a decent channel in play. A break of this channel to the upside could result in a gap close at the very least and after that maybe a strong rally. If it is to be a wave C all the way past $75 for a higher high then it is likely to move fast. A break of the upper channel will be the first signal. Obviously a break of $50 support would negate this scenario.
  19. Gold and Silver continue their march lower, despite coronavirus risk (if it is really such a big risk) and stocks march on in their seemingly never-ending complacency. I am content to be Short PMs for short/medium term until the worm turns. IF we see PMs make new lows I feel they may hammer down to retest key long term levels and if those levels hold then the big rally may once again be on. Net COT was as bullish as it has ever been on Gold at the top and turn, Silver is lagging. Such a strong bear move will clear out a lot of Long positions as stops are hit. This will both fuel the bear move, which may carry further than many might be expecting, and prime the pump for the next bull move, which I think will happen on real geopolitical and/or geo-economic risk rising (and or maybe the coronavirus morphs into an actual thing, but let's hope not on that one...). I would also be anticipating a stocks melt up and reversal to exactly inversely mirror PMs. Short term a break of the 1535 level for Gold (1733 for Silver) is the next key juncture.
  20. Mercury


    Some one has to because she is a mouthpiece for her handlers who have their own, misguided or nefarious, agenda. It is climate terrorism. They seek to terrorise people to act in certain ways via social pressure. If she (and they) start talking about population growth as the major root cause and a strategy to reduce pollution (think air and water quality rather than greenhouse gases) and talk about food and water security then I will be cheering her on. If all they want to do is moan about climate change then No NONONONONONONONONO!
  21. Yes if you don't have patients to wait for the direction to show itself and the least risky trade to materialise. The first rally up after the top was a hit on the Fib 62%. As I was anticipating a bearish phase wave B I figured this to be a decent Short, which it was initially. The second was not tradeable for me. the third and recent would have been a big risk and after the turn gapped down it was logical to assume the gap would be closed. It wasn't and now I see this as a breakaway gap for this bearish move (i.e. it will not be closed until the next bullish move). The move down from there was a fast 1-5 and so I am expecting an A-B-C relief/retrace rally (counter trend) that ought to turn around the Fib 62% (+/-). So the trade that is least risky on this whole move since the top out is yet to come, which would be that retrace rally and turn at a suitable resistance level. Might take a few attempts to catch it but after than we might anticipate a fairly fast wave 3 that will take us back to the weekly trend line most likely. The key to this type of situation is to be clear in your mind what the direction is going to be and only trade that way (down for me). This means you don't get caught up in trying to trade every move. Patience for the move to reveal itself (or negate) is then vital. A break of 12,900 is critical to the bearish set up but you want to try to get in before that as there is often a reversal at such vital levels.
  22. If it is anything like Arabica I'd say breaks lower. I see new lows into the bottom of the range zone now on Aribica. Having said that, I do anticipate a relief rally at some point so maybe... Wont last though.
  23. I see it as following a complex bearish retrace pattern, the reasons for the moves interest me less, except to say that the prevailing wind is USD strength, for now. Once we see a decent retrace up on this pair I will look to Short on turn signals at key resistance points. should be a decent haul of points for a carefully executed trade.
  24. No need to be, swing trading is a war of attrition a lot of the time, often taking many attempts to catch the move. It doesn't suit everyone. Key is to find the strategy that suits your mentality and practice it ruthlessly. If you prefer trend trading then you need to have patience to wait for the trend to present itself. Actually it is perfect for people who trade on the side but not that good for those who want to day trade.