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Everything posted by Mercury

  1. This bullish phase on EURGBP looks to be on now but as with GBPUSD I am seeing a counter trend bearish phase first before the next bullish wave. I think this pair will top out when GBPUSD bottoms out.
  2. GBPUSD remains within my Bearish scenario (as does EURUSD). With a series of A-B-C whipsaw moves done the current strong move seems like a wave C down. A small gap has now been closed but there is another above, which I don't expect will be closed until the market drops much further. Short term however I do see a relief rally to set up the wave 3 of wave C, this would be the big one in this move. Note the PMD on the 1H chart after a fast 1-5 down. I would expect the relief rally to conform to an A-B-C form before turning and moving fast back down. My target for the end of the Bear phase is circa 12,400, which would be a retest of the weekly channel line and the Fib 76/78%.
  3. Sugar seems to be on the rise again. There are at least a couple of scenarios in play: With the breakout of the Triangle consolidation and Ice line the market is now in a strong bull phase with a series of 1-2s that should push through the next resistance level (1550) and on up The current rally is still to top out (maybe at 1550) and then a strong retrace 1-2 to set up the next rally phase. Let's see...
  4. Looks like the positive ISM Manufacturing reading and results from Google/Amazon have turned the tide on stocks and with USD set to rise (IMO) Gold/Silver bear phase is once again on. We have had a turn back down this week so far. A break below recent lows would be a strong signal that there is more to come and maybe even that neckline retest. A Stocks reversal down again would probably put this scenario under pressure, unless USD rally can sustain it and I see a major bearish phase as requiring both USD and Stocks to rally and for the moment the direction is seemingly down. I am Short off the turn and seeking to pyramid. Don't yet know if the next wave will be a fast wave C or still has some whipsaw action in it but if stocks do go on a melt up, as some are talking about, then it may follow that PMs will do the reverse. I don't like stocks at these levels but shorting PMs is a decent alternative.
  5. Not sure I follow you. 4000 points up, 4000 down so far. Seems like a great swing trade to me...
  6. USDJPY getting interesting again. Price is currently down at a lower channel line. A break here and of the nearby horizontal support could open the Bearish floodgates. This would correlate with a further stocks bear phase.
  7. Quick update on my stocks analysis vs last week. Markets have put in a small relief rally, which I was expecting. Nasdaq penetrated back into the channel but is now back below. Dax retested a potential ending channel lower line. Fairly static at present with 3 major events to come to kick of a massive week: US open, as always ISM manufacturing, anything but a decent beat of consensus (which is still contraction) should be bearish I think Google to release Q4 results at CoP tonight
  8. The thing with these kinds of reports @TrendFollower is that they are based on statistical studies. Advice changes over time. When I was growing up there was no talk of cholesterol and then it was the scourge of the world and now it isn't so much it is sugar that is the killer. My point was that no one can rely on this kind of evidence and I would not bet my health on such studies. Therefore it is better to NOT use artificial sweeteners at all , just give up sugar. Also sugar is a problem only if taken in excess (like most colas for instance...). A modicum of sugar in your diet is not a bad thing and as it releases energy into the body it is actual food where as artificial sweeteners are, well just a drug! I know doctors who will say privately that "a little bit of what you fancy" is a good thing because of the body and brain chemistry results it produces, not to mention good mental health (what would we all be like if we lived like ascetic I wonder..?). This is why a balanced diet (not necessarily a health crazed one) and regular exercise are still the sane way to a health life. Therefore I take issue with the notion that a chemical substitute for a natural produce is "healthier". It just isn't and time and again this is proven and proven over again in the long run. Just look at the Fats debate. Now fat is not bad for you, just excessive amounts. My relatives all ate fat and sugar in their diets and most of them died in their 80/90 and some are sill going... So that is a fundamentals backdrop to my conviction that the sugar industry is not about to die, it is just adjusting to the new reality of lower consumption per capita (note there can be growth with population growth...). Ont he back of this I think there has been an over correction in supply, which appears to be causing a supply issue. So net I think we will see a sugar bull run until that supply issue is resolved and sugar as an industry is here to stay so no existential issues. Within that backdrop I can let the technicals guide me to a decent trade if that is where I want to be.
  9. The very definition if a melt up. Got a little more to go though if the 1H chart is anything to go by. Need to see a NMD of a higher high. Not something worth trading for me but interesting as it related to the over exuberance always seen at the end of a cycle. When this one collapses that will be a signal...
  10. Coal has had it's day but Oil and Natural gas is still the mainstay and will be for decades to come. In fact the world is awash with natural gas, hopefully instead of burning it off at Oil wells it will be harnessed to produce electricity as it is the cleanest version of fossil fuel. The latest technology being worked on by the Oil industry, which is in reality the Energy industry as few, if any, are pure Oil companies anymore, is to use carbon dioxide in fracking to fix the carbon dioxide as part of the process and render the extraction carbon dioxide neutral. If the Oil majors share prices were to plummet they would be a massive buy for me. They will be at the forefront of of the next energy revolution.
  11. In fact it is the older generations that are giving up sugar as science realises what Sci Fi comic book writers of 2000AD knew back in the 70s, that it is sugar not fat that kills your heart. Of course that was in an age when people took 2 spoons of sugar with their tea... But try to bake a cake or a cookie without sugar! šŸ¤¢ I assume you do not have any qualification in food science nor medicine? "Most health authorities consider saccharin to be safe for human consumption. That said, there is still some skepticism about their potentially negative effects on human health. A recent study found that using saccharin, sucralose, and aspartame may disrupt the balance of bacteria in the gut." There have been health scares with saccharin in the past, none proven but that doesn't mean it will not be in the future. Personally I pref a natural produce (raw cane sugar typically) than a chemical but then again I use very little sugar these days. And the chemical alternatives taste like $h1t! I'd rather just give up cola, which I did and feel a lot better for it! From a trading perspective the issue is that as a result of the negativity towards sugar, which has drive changes in consumer habits, the demand for sugar reduced and supply followed but too far, hence the potential for a bull market. Simple S/D equation.
  12. Mercury


    Whom do you think is at the fore front of that? It's Shell, BP, Chevron, Exxon... Also Oil will be a major part of the energy mix for decades to come, you can't just switch it off despite what annoying Swedish teenagers and their handlers say.
  13. That is true and what is more it depends on whether one is a long term trader or a Day trader or scalper etc etc. My point is simply that on Daily and longer term charts H&S formations, hell all chartist patterns, are more reliable in the right context. Patterns like H&S in the context of a viable trend change occur rarely on daily/weekly charts and therefore should be taken seriously but they occur regularly on 1H and below and often do not hold. Having said that, if I see a short term H&S on say a 1H chart is supporting other analysis that is indicating a turn so much the better. Just isn't part of my set up.
  14. Taking a look at the first month of 2020, in the context of Friday's US large caps possible capitulation, and assuming for a moment (until proven otherwise) that stocks will indeed go on a bearish rampage for a while, Gold is in a bullish move but Silver is not yet fully following. If we look at stocks we can see that most indices have been in a Jan bearish move except for the US large caps, which only caught on in the final days... Although PMs and stocks are not necessarily obversely correlated (this is one of those received wisdom things) and Gold does not always go up in a recession (another erroneous received wisdom maxim) it does seem that they currently are experiencing opposite momentum from the sentiment drivers in play. IF this continues and USD experiences a bearish phase and US bonds keep rising (yields falling) then Gold/Silver should go through a decent bullish phase. Looking at the technicals (monthly chart only): Gold That Head & Shoulders and associated PMD still holds sway providing a base for the strong rally after the neckline breakout. A possible retest of the neckline looks to be off the table, a break of the near term resistance area will surely negate this scenario. In EWT term the rally looks to have put in a couple of long term 1-2 retraces prior to the neckline breakout and then broke out in what looks very like a wave 3. But if this is to be a long term bull market that carries well beyond the previous ATHs then this wave 3 might just be at the beginning (i.e. a wave 1 of a much larger wave 3). From a chartist perspective the consolidation phase looks like a Flag on this rally phase, which started in Aug 2018 and so should carry to twice the length so far (target of circa 1840 to end the wave). After that we could see a strong retrace that might even retest the current resistance level prior to a major wave 3 of 3. Silver Silver is clearly lagging Gold at present but if and when it breaks out and gets after Gold it should do a lot better from a points gathering perspective. This market also fell a lot further than Gold and so has a lot of upside even to get back to ATHs. Price has been contained in a very long term Triangle after a double bottom and very strong PMD but looks like it might be setting up to break out now. In EWT terms we have only had a single 1-2 retrace and the rally phase is much less powerful than Gold. This suggest a shorter rally phase that may yet retrace for a retest of the Triangle breakout if it comes. In Chartist terms the same Flag consolidation as on Gold is present, suggesting the current rally may complete around 2,210, which is also coincident with a zone of resistance, possible an ice line off the double bottom reversal. If this market tracks Gold in terms of form rather than magnitude then a top and turn around 2,200 could result in a retest of that Triangle breakout before a major long term bull market. Overall my feeling is that a bearish phase on stocks, driven by wider geopolitical concerns and economic data deterioration would produce this bullish run in PMs. Stocks wont collapse from here before a significant relief rally (or EWT 1-2 retrace), which would produce that bearish retrace on PMs in my speculative route map and I cannot see PMs going on a long term bullish rampage without a major catalyst, which most likely correlates to a major bear market on Stocks. For me Silver is the market of choice to capitalise on a major bull market BUT I think stocks Short may offer better opportunity in the short to medium term and perhaps waiting to buy the dips on Silver is the way to go. Still putting down a market on a breakout of the long term Triangle is not the worst idea in the world...
  15. USD took a turn for the worst yesterday. I'm sure there will be many experts opining on what is driving this. All that I know from the charts is that it more or less happened when US large caps turned red on Friday morning. USD had topped out on Wednesday but really started to run down on Friday about 7am. I would not conclude that USD and stocks are in lock step from this, merely that the initial drivers for both may be connected. From a technical perspective I am unsure yet whether we will now see that bear phase I have been tracking for ages or another leg up to a new high first or an intermediate scenario, which is my lead option (see chart below). For now I am expecting a test of the weekly channel line and if that holds then another rally phase to complete an A-B-C. Obviously a break of the channel would indicate a test of the lower horizontal support, a break of which would herald that bear market. The technical set up could also support a higher high and test of the upper channel line around 100 on DX. I am waiting to see if the stocks wobble turns into something more sustained and as FX is unclear at present I will wait on the sidelines and see how things develop. Besides the opportunity of a major stocks bear phase, if it triggers, is too rewarding to get distracted by other things...
  16. If the Nasdaq breaks and holds below 8900 there will be a lot more gains given up, maybe even half of 2019... Nasdaq traders are the only ones still holding their index above the support levels. SP500 broke below and came back up but everything else is down. The Nasdaq buy the dips boys are on attempt no.3 to hold the daily channel line. Should be interesting as third times a charm... NOT looking good for the bulls just now... Come on ye Beaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
  17. Crikey! Has anyone checked out the Jan performance for the China A50 and the Hang Seng!!! That's 12 and 8% I think... Can't be just the **** flu!
  18. Great start to the US session for the Bears! The Nasdaq turned right on cue at the open around the Fib 50% level and tanked. Maybe traders agree with me that the data is soft and are worried about next week. Or maybe it is just a "normal" Friday sell off... While things have potential on the Nasdaq, the other US large caps are approaching lower low support levels, having dropped back through the daily channel lower line. A sustained break below the support will be significant. In other indices the Dax, Nikkei and Russell 2000 have already made lower lows and are into important support zones, breaks of which will be very significant I feel. Looking at the FANGs Google and Facebook are looking decidedly bearish while the others are in potential turn areas that could become melt downs (Amazon and Tesla in particular are worth watching) and Netflix is bearish anyway. Still need to see the Nasdaq drop below 8900 for me to get comfortable but my Shorts are all stop protected now so just waiting to see which what this will play out by CoP today. If it stays low I wouldn't want to be holding any Longs over the weekend...
  19. Fair enough but if you think something is a wave C and want to ask if anyone agrees just post an annotated chart. You learn from other (successes and failures) as well as your own. One of the reasons for the Forum should be just this, alas few people submit anything for other to opine on, probably because there are too many people all to quick to trash others and tell them what they are doing wrong with their lives. I just ignore such people these days...
  20. Mercury


    The Apple business is reasonably sound, consumers keep upgrading as tech improves. There will get hit if there is a recession, as everyone will, this is normal, but they have a mountain of cash so do not have an existential risk like Blackberry and Ericsson before. The issue is an existential risk for the Apple share price at these levels, that's all. Share price and soundness of the business are not necessarily in alignment for public companies. The stock market doesn't always work as a weighing machine, often as a voting machine, hence bubbles and manias.
  21. Yep, at least on the Melt-up Nasdaq, mostly on the melt-up Amazon after results posted. However the other large caps didn't respond as well and now Dax and FTSE100 have made lower lows, the former after a failed retest of a daily channel line that was previously broken to the downside. Russell 2000 as done the same but earlier and the Nikkei ended its live trading week bearishly. The technicals on the Nasdaq look as follows: Possible top on Jan 24 (not necessarily "the top" but could be given the Amazon, Netflix, Tesla melt up it could be...). Turn on NMD at key LT trend lines. Swift 1-5 down with a gap in wave 3 and then a turn at support (ST horizontal plus LT daily lower channel line) on PMD (posting a possible wave 1). An A-B-C and turn is what I was looking for next. Initially I though we might have it at the Fib 62% and gap close but that now looks like the wave A (1-5 count). Next we got the whip saw price action yesterday to post a likely wave B, which also turned on the daily channel line. Then we got that Amazon led melt up but on the Nasdaq it only took us to the Fib 88% (no new ATH) and has turned here overnight on Asia bearishness. The rally is also in a 1-5 and the drop away has, so far, been quite sharp, which would be expected of a wave 3. Hang Seng and China 50 continue to slide fast while Europeans have made lower lows and non Nasdaq US indices are also turning bearish. Russell 2000 is approaching another lower low. If we see the Nasdaq break below the daily channel line again (close below it today) and especially if it breaks the horizontal support at the wave 1 low then I think we can expect a bearish phase into the data heavy week next week. Gold looks like it is rallying again and USD is also holding up, maybe ready to rally further. USDJPY still looks bearish. It is also worth noting that the data releases this week were not great: US home sales down and German IFO surveys in the red on Monday US Durable goods orders ex defense (i.e. consumer based) and non defense captial goods orders went negative on Tuesday US home sales went negative in Dec on Wednesday The Fed sat of their hands as expected, no new coolade The BoE sat on its hands on Thursday US GDP Q4 failed to meet consensus on Thursday (this is the one the Perma Bulls always point to even thought it lags recession) US personal consumption and jobless claims failed to meet expectation on Thursday too EU GDP down on consensus on Friday I mean even US GDP fell off the pace and if it wasn't for some crazy buying on the FANGs and Tesla the Nasdaq would be down already. Sure the markets can remain crazy for a long time, but they already have been, just look at a chart on Tesla, Amazon, Apple etc. Barking mad! At some point a melt up melts down...
  22. So that took longer than expected and required the Nasdaq to go on a rampage but looks like the bear is on now.
  23. A break lower on Gold/Silver was always going to be a stretch if stocks turned south and that seems to be the case. After the initial buying surge on US opening both Gold/Silver and USDJPY started to reverse strongly and then we got a shape bearish move on the Nasdaq. The Buy the Dips boys did their usual knee **** fat finger buy (may yet be the right move, let's see) but this didn't make a higher high (not as yet). The whole of the move on Nasdaq looks like a 1-5 down from the top, followed by and A-B-C retrace to close the gap at the Fib 62% and then another smaller 1-5 down plus A-B-C up. If the Nasdaq ends the day/week broken through the daily channel and ST support then I think the Bear phase will be on. Interestingly the Russell 2000 has already broken its channel and put in a failed retest and then a lower low. Currently teasing us at an area of daily chart support, a break of this should open the floodgates. And the Dax has also joined the party today with a break of its daily channel, after a fakeout (all to common these day with the buy the dip brigade). A close below the channel line and ideally below the recent lower low would be bearish for the coming days/week or so at least.
  24. US GDP in 10. The last of this week's big releases. The US large caps are at a ST critical juncture, Nasdaq at it's daily channel with ST support not far below but looking like there is a case for a stronger retrace. A break lower will surely bring up a bearish phase that lasts into next week's data heavy calendar.