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Mercury

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Everything posted by Mercury

  1. EURGBP retrace rally looks to be about to get going again after what looks like an A-B with a wave C to come. It isn't a bad place to be if you want to avoid the uncertainty around USD. At present I see this as a relief rally prior to a major long term bearish phase as GBP winds up as a more desirable safety haven during a financial and economic crisis, in particular London. There is a technical case for the price action since Oct 2016 being a long and drawn out consolidation period prior to a big bullish push but at present I see no real evidence of this and now that the UK has been freed of the Brexit paralysis and the USD is signalling a quick trade agreement I think we may see tailwinds for GBP, but not before some short term skittishness. There are several credible turning points above the Fib 50% level but price action will hopefully help spot the turn when the time comes. Short term I am expecting a small wave 2 bearish retrace down before a strong rally but I am already Long off the pin bar bullish turn. I am expecting both EUR and GBP to drop vs USD but for GBP to drop further and faster so favouring GBP shorts. On the purely technical side I see the following: The entire move since Oct 2016 conforms to a complex A-B-C (1-2, pink) and the recent low at wave 1 (blue is just below wave 1 (pink), which is indicative of a long term bearish bias for me. Wave 1 (blue) turned at key long support (albeit with a slightly lower low, crucially) and on PMD after a 1-5 wave form down. The next phase should therefore be an A-B-C counter trend rally (unless the complex consolidation is still in play). After the wave 1 (blue) we have seen a short rally and then drop that ended with a daily chart pin bar at the Fib 62% (bullish). This could be an A-B or a 1-2 but either way is signalling a bullish phase to come. The 1H chart shows a possible narrowing channel breakout and PMD at the wave B (green) pin bar turn.
  2. It isn't strange at all Halo, check out my GBPUSD thread for my take. I also have an EURGBP (the more usual way of looking at that pair) thread. The price spike occurred when the UK PMI data was released at 9.30am today. The data was slightly better than consensus but manufacturing was still below 50 (i.e. contraction). I discuss the possible fundamentals picture in the other threads, just my opinion, no one really knows. The technicals picture suggest bearishness for GBPUSD and bullishness for EURGBP (that would be bearishness if you are looking at the obverse GBPEUR). Basically I am suggesting the data release marked the end of the short term rally in GBPUSD and now we will enter a phase where GBP drops faster and further than EUR but both will still drop. The 9.30 price action may result in a daily pin bar price candle, which is bearish, but lets see when the day is done...
  3. No! I bought the breakout but got stopped out for no loss when it reversed, as I thought it might. A break lower suggests a retest of the weekly channel line and Fib 76% level around 10500-700 range. A break back above 11,500 would signal a rally resumption.
  4. Fakeout (or inside bar breakdown) suggests the rally is done for the moment and we ought now to see a bearish retrace in an A-B-C structure to key support.
  5. In a classic case of "buy the rumors sell the fact" the consensus beat on UK PMI spiked GBP and then other forces took hold, maybe underlying Brexit 3 July deadline jitters, more likely underlying weakness in the economy (rate of change), which this data does little to mitigate. Whatever the reason the price action is consistent with my current thesis, that GBPUSD is in a wave B bear phase after a strong wave A to 12 Dec. There is a gap around the 12,950 area, which I am now targeting next and if this is broken then the support at the weekly channel breakout point (circa 12,740) would be the next support for a turn for me. Failing that, and my lead scenario assuming EURUSD continues to drop and EURGBP to rally, is a retest of the weekly channel line itself that could coincide with the Fib 76/78% area. There is strong NMD at the recent spike and turn and that pin bar is compelling, if it is sustained for the day close. I expect a bit of a short term rally but after than further drop.
  6. EURGBP looks like it may be staging a breakout rally after an A-B phase. Could be propelled to the 9000 level with GBPUSD reversing in a sell the fact fashion and EUR steadily heading south, but slower.
  7. So you have mastered it? You must be coining it...
  8. On that at least we can agree. And the new economy titans in the shape of Suckerberg (sic) thinks paying everyone basic is a good idea... Just so he can hold on to his!
  9. Sounds like the Fed... 😝 Although your use of the phrase High interest rates is pejorative, surely it is just interest... Been the case since the dawn of money anyway, high or not, so what are you advocating exactly?
  10. But the pension is paid for by assets in the fund so same same... Still not seeing the point of your original post. Rentiers like investors or, oh I don't know, Traders?
  11. You mean landlords specifically or just non workers like, oh I don't know, pensioners?
  12. And EWT and charting and trend following etc etc.
  13. Interesting factoid at the end of the Real Vision piece with Michael Kantrowitz, something I have heard before elsewhere, almost 25% of the US S&P600 (small caps) are loss making, which has never happened before outside of a recession and they are also up to the eyeballs in debt. His call is for large companies in Western economies and things Europe will recover in 2020 🤣. Looks like the Fed is keeping those zombies going in the US too and when wage inflation bits and/or economic activity shrinks in the form of consumers deciding to tighten the belt the wheels will come off this thing rapidly.
  14. This one goes out to all the Bears! After a turn at the upper channels the Dax has put in a small 1-5 bearish move and is now retracing back up. IF this bullish move turns without a higher high in an A-B-C wave form and drops to make a lower low vs the one just posted then a bearish phase is on. One to watch in for US open and possibly through to Asia overnight.
  15. Great piece on Real Vision today. If you are a perma-bull you will be in ecstasy. If you are a Bear contrarian your will he on high alert, something for everyone really. The piece is an interview with Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Cornerstone Macro, who think the earnings decline will be reversed in 2020 so buy growth stocks. He is expecting a pick up in all the macro economic indicators like ISM PMIs etc. He doesn't think Oil prices can go up because all the tensions in the Middle East have not produced a sustainable Oil shock (so all clear then...). Ultimately he states you can't forecast geopolitical events (that's the get out of jail free card!) but the main three things you can forecast: that higher interest rates; a spike in Oil prices and an earnings slow down and/or recession are "not on the cards for 2020." He also said that there is full employment in the USA so they like consumer businesses. Err what happens when there is 100% of anything? The next move is down. Last jobs data was down, during the Christmas period too (the consumer bonanza), the next one will be interesting, as will retail data post Christmas. For the perma-bulls to be right everything has to go in the favour. For the Bears, just one or two things need to break bad. How about those odds sports fans? So there it is, we can all buy Tesla, Google, Apple etc and sleep soundly... OR be afraid, be very afraid. Someone said, Panic is OK so long as you are first to do so...
  16. As I said it will be because of the Labour Blair/Brown government. The Tories tried to do some belt tighening, which the Marxists labelled "austerity", in fact it wasn't and so we are still in the ****. Big hand to Gordon for selling all the UKs gold at the bottom of the market instead of buying but then he has convinced himself that he had eliminated the boom/bust cycle. Didn't learn form King Canoute. The market and country and the world is rift with this kind of wrong headed thinking, what Kahneman called thinking fast. It will all end in tears, because that is what always happens. Interestingly, and surprisingly to me, during the UK general election Labour supporters said (on TV) that they didn't trust Labour on the economy (citing the Blair/Brown years and not saving for the rainy days) and agreeing that the country needs to tighten its belt, this is one reason Labour lost, although the seem fixated on blaming Brexit or Corbyn, not both, they can't even agree on the cause for the worst election lost since before Thatcher. What chance they will win next time? Maybe Labour should be hoping for a global economic meltdown that they can blame on the Tories, after all the Tories are responsible for every bust right...?
  17. It's all about corporate Darwinism. The central banks have been trying to stave off the inevitable, which has had the result of keeping zombie companies afloat. People lose jobs in a recession, it is just a hard fact. Unless you want to try Corbyn's Marxism, which doesn't work anywhere beyond the Amish community, then the cycle is something to be planned for not Quixotically fought. Alas the gravy years when the Blairites were in charge the idiots didn't save for the winter and now "Winter is Coming" or is maybe already here but we haven't heard the MSM tell us this is our collective heads are still in the sand. BTW, this is coming from someone who has lost jobs during down turns...
  18. Looks like Silver and Gold may be on the verge of a breakdown contrary to the broad MSM expectation. I wonder whether we will see a USD rally and/or a further stocks melt up to match? Don't need both (either really) but might expect at least one. For my money it is USD that will rally, Stocks may or may not.
  19. Does anyone on the Forum run a private company? If you do you might have notices changes to bank charges on your business account. Now I see UK banks are dialing up the overdraft interest rates to 40%. Small businesses often have difficulty getting formal loans so overdraft is vital for day to day cash flow but at 40% watch how fast small businesses fold! At least it ought to kill of the so-called "zombie businesses". However as private small business is the vast majority of the economy... ☠️ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51206067
  20. They were certainly looking at it a few years ago but haven't heard that they are going to do it. Probably too much additional pariah baggage on top of tobacco plus it isn't really diversification as such. Worth noting that Big Tobacco like Imperial and BAT did once own diversified portfolios in paper, cosmetics and food industries, including businesses like Eagle Star insurance and Allied Dunbar but weren't any good at managing them so divested in the 90s. I am pretty sure all major tobacco firms are tobacco only now and likely to stay that way. In fact I would definitely Short any tobacco company than started a diversification strategy, the people there only know tobacco.
  21. But Economists are ok right..? 😉 @LisaH check out HMRC website, it is not the easiest read but should have everything you need. Before you pay for expensive professionals you can always ask HMRC under the guise of what you need to do to fill in your tax return. You can also ask whoever has provided you with the ISA, they should know the specifics but I think your statement is correct. I also think that any tax recovery is down to your ISA provider not you, that would obviously be different for actual shares you hold in overseas companies. So, if your question is exclusively about stuff in your ISA, contact your ISA provided. If it is also about individual shares you own outside an ISA, try HMRC first. Accountants 1 - Economist 0 HaHa...
  22. Possible bullish breakout occurring on Coffee. By no means confirmed and even if we do get a rally it could still break down for a test of that weekly channel line that was broken to the upside previously. There is compelling PMD here and price has been stopped by the Fib 62% zone.
  23. Tesla is more valuable than VW despite not being profitable. 🤣 Ding ding? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51214824 Now that's what I call a melt up!
  24. Dr Copper is continuing its bearish phase and looks set to test that important juncture around 27,000. If it breaks lower it could continue to front run stocks for a while.
  25. USD Dx is stuck at a point of recent resistance but price remains within a weekly chart channel and while it does I am expecting the rally to continue with breakout to the upside. Most pairs look similar, except for USDJPY, which is looking a bit bearish, maybe Yen traders are smelling a stocks hit..?
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