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JasmineC

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  1. Expected index adjustments Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 15 Oct 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange. Special dividends You
  2. Rout over? There are tentative signs that the global equity rout witnessed last week has subsided, at least for now. The tone shifted during Asian trade on Friday, and despite a weak day for European markets, Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, led by a bounce in the major tech stocks. It’s not to say that there isn’t the risk that this sell-off may not continue at some stage this week: in fact, futures markets are indicating a sluggish start for Asia today. More to the point, the fundamentals haven’t changed and the concerns that precipitated the tumble in share markets are still t
  3. What happened? The sell-off continues, and despite a brief pause during Wall Street trade that opened hopes of an end to this rout, it was quickly dashed as investors went back to dumping stocks. The chaos that has ensued in the last 24 hours raised myriad of questions. But the first one is inevitably this: why did that happen? In short: there’s not a clear answer. That isn’t to say that there isn’t reasoning behind the sell-off; on the contrary, there’s plenty to explain it. Rather, it’s a matter of “why now?” – an explanation that has proven elusive for market participants. From some sort of
  4. Volatility is up, and risk appetite has been dulled. The VIX traded towards the 22 figure overnight, while currency safe havens such as the Yen were sought amid a somewhat remarkable sell-off across global equities during the European and North American sessions. It’s a matter of markets continuing to adjust to a world of higher interest rates and US Treasury yields – coupled with the expected panic when prices recalibrate to evolving fundamentals. A strong enough argument can be made that we are witness the beginning of the end for the US bull-market: there’s no shortage of voices out there s
  5. The growth-versus-risk paradigm shifted further in favour of the latter in the last 24 hours, as a multitude of stories compounded the bearish sentiment mounting in global markets. Though Chinese markets were more stable yesterday, an IMF report downgrading global growth forecasts for the first time since 2016 reinforced the possible growth-sapping impacts of the unfolding US-China trade war. Risks in Europe piqued again, following renewed inflammation of tensions between the Italian government and European bureaucrats, weakening the EUR/USD and pushing European bond spreads wider. While the t
  6. Markets welcomed back the Chinese from holiday and all the bad news came together at once. That’s not to say the world’s problems, at least as it applies to global markets, can be rooted in China. Frankly, it was a hapless start for the week, by any measure. The build-up of trader fears simply over flowed during yesterday’s Asian session, as China’s markets attempted to digest a whole week of news all at once. Most of these issues sit beyond Chinese borders, with the fundamental issue remaining the prospect of higher global rates. But a truth that is taking come sifting to exhume is to what ex
  7. It’s likely global markets will sway to begin the week, in a bid to find some semblance of equanimity following a raucous week. The international bond rout will be the essential force underpinning price action, with other markets and asset classes to take cues from there. Anxieties regarding trade wars and global growth will probably become more present too, as Chinese traders return from holiday, adding a layer of uncertainty on-top of increasingly volatile fundamentals. The shaky sentiment will weigh heavily on riskier assets one must assume, boding poorly for equity markets and currencies s
  8. Economic data flow has been relatively light overnight, but activity on financial markets is especially rife. It’s begun with the bond market – not in Europe this time, but in the booming United States. There doesn’t appear to be a discernible flashpoint that’s sparked this, but nevertheless and for whatever reason, bond traders have hit the sell button on US Treasuries. The phenomenon can be witnessed across the curve, with US 2 Year Treasury yields climbing to levels not seen since 2008 at 2.86 per cent, the benchmark US 10 Year Treasury yield hitting levels not seen since 2011 at 3.15 perce
  9. Macro-drivers: Global markets endured a night of mixed trading, sandwiched between several risk factors, and the waning optimism of the USMCA. US indices were generally lower, although the large-cap Dow Jones managed to register new all-time highs. European markets were held back by grief surrounding Italian fiscal sustainability, coupled with lingering concerns about the outcome of Brexit. The general sense of risk aversion led to an appreciating USD and climb in US Treasuries, pushing yields on the benchmark 10 Year Treasury note to 3.05 per cent. Oil cooled its run somewhat as commodity tra
  10. Deal done: Hopes were whetted during overnight trade from the news that the US, Mexico and Canada had agreed to a revised “NAFTA” agreement. To be (re)named USMCA – the US-Mexico-Canada-Agreement, a clear declaration of the Trumpian neo-Nationalist, “America First” agenda – the trade agreement reconfigures the North American trade consensus, with a skew towards US economic interests. It was apparently the Canadian’s who finally caved in to political and economic pressure on the trade pact, backing down on dairy tariffs and restrictions on US-automotive imports, judging that a deal with the Whi
  11. ASX: SPI futures are indicating a 23-point drop at the open for the ASX200 this morning, effectively wiping Friday's solid gains. It comes as no surprise, really, with the lion's share of activity centring around the embattled financial sector. Bank stocks underpinned the rally on the ASX on Friday, led by CBA, in signs that the market believed the sector's recent trend lower was overdone. It may be a case of jumping the gun for traders on that one, as sentiment appears sour once more following the weekend's release of the Financial Services Royal Commission interim report. The materials and e
  12. The overarching narrative in global markets is transforming from one preoccupied with the trade war, to one focused on Thursday morning’s (AEST) meeting of the US Federal Reserve. As far as developments in the trade war go, in a week bereft other major stories, traders are demonstrating tentative signs of ease on the subject. Markets are strapping themselves in for the long haul, and a begrudging acceptance that this thing will take time to play out is the prevailing mentality. With that in mind, and with only a laugh-worthy speech from US President Trump at the UN overnight to seriously fill
  13. Trade War: Markets were made to curb their enthusiasm overnight. Trade war realities bit again and the relief rally that had defined last week’s trade dissipated. It’s not a terrible cause for alarm yet, but it highlights how difficult to predict the impact on global trade disruption happens to be. It’s a debate that challenges orthodoxy, especially given that markets have done all they can to shrug off the potential consequences new-protectionism will have on global growth. Inefficiencies abound in such a system, one must assume, but whether this leads to a rapid slowdown in global economic a
  14. Expected index adjustments Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25 Sep 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange. Special dividends You c
  15. Geopolitics is already shaping-up as the major driver of financial markets this week. Data is rather light, with the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on Thursday morning (AEST) the centrepiece of an economic calendar otherwise filled with a handful of central-bank-head speeches and a meeting of the RBNZ. Hence, traders will find themselves sucked into a vacuum that can only be filled by noise surround the global economy’s biggest contemporary international-political hot-points. The break-down in talks between the US and China was once again the most significant of these, but a shift in sentiment w
  16. ASX yesterday: SPI futures are indicating a 5-point jump at the open for the ASX200, as traders continue to ride the wave of relief washing-over global markets. The boost in global commodity prices has underpinned the bounce in the ASX, with the materials and energy sectors leading the charge higher. Commodities markets maintained their run overnight, collectively climbing 0.76 per cent according to the Bloomberg Commodity Index, while the price of oil also threatened to challenge new highs, holding around the $US79 per barrel in Brent Crude terms. The dynamic reflects well the increased optim
  17. It was a choppy day in markets as sentiment vacillated in response to the latest escalation in the US-China trade war. US President Trump made traders wait a little longer than was flagged for his administration's trade announcement, leaving it until well after Wall Street's close to drop the news. Upon the eventual release, initial reactions were unfavourable: though the $US200bn worth of tariffs would go ahead on September 24th at the rate of 10 per cent, this will be upped to 25% come the start of next year is China refuses to come to the negotiating table. Markets viewed the White House's
  18. US President Trump’s administration has announced the next round of tariffs on $US200bn worth of Chinese imports. The tariffs will be at a rate of 10 per cent, increasing to 25 per cent by the end of the year. The tariffs will be implemented on the 24th of September. The Chinese have stated that they will not come to the negotiating table if this second round of tariffs were implemented. We will be awaiting their response in the coming days. The price action quoted below is evolving, but there is considerable risk-off behaviour and the day ahead is poised for heavy selling while ma
  19. The economic calendar is relatively light, and markets await guidance from US President Trump about his intentions regarding the next round of tariffs on China. This will likely be the headline theme this week with sentiment probably swinging on how this narrative unfolds. There isn’t a terrific lead being handed to us from Wall Street, which demonstrated its fundamental resilience at the end of last week’s trading but didn’t truly threaten new all-time highs. An easing of fears around emerging markets will support market-bulls, courtesy of the Central Bank of Turkey’s proactive policy stance
  20. For whatever good news that could come out this week in global markets, it would take something of extreme magnitude to distract traders from the unfolding emerging market crisis and escalating US-China trade war. The debilitating aspect of both stories is the sense of randomness and chaos surrounding each. Regarding emerging markets, the concern is how challenging it is to judge what exposure developed markets have to the various issues plaguing them; regarding the US-China trade war, the perception is becoming that US President Trump lacks a substantive plan for trade negotiations and is sim
  21. Expected index adjustments Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 10 Sep 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adjustment on your account. Special Divs are highlighted in orange. Special dividends
  22. The pain in emerging markets continues to be too difficult to ignore, although it must be said that the effects of the crisis were relatively contained in overnight trade. There is this sneaking suspicion in markets presently, that whatever the worst outcome is for emerging markets, some of that must inevitably spill into the developed world. The issue is however, it remains to be seen how and where these signs of contagion may first show-up. Now of course it may not do so at all, but as the scope of the emerging market crisis is uncovered, the willingness to take the risk that it won’t spread
  23. Market stress: The world economy and financial markets are displaying further signs of duress as traders enter the mid-part of the week. Trade War fears hang over markets like a darkening cloud, and emerging markets are wobbling and appear on the verge of a greater crisis. Of the two prevailing concerns, the problems within emerging market economies is slowly taking greatest attention. The South African economy looks to be slipping into recession and Argentinian policy makers are scrambling regain control of financial markets. The woes have driven another haven play into the US Dollar, pushing
  24. Soft start to the week: The weak lead from Wall Street combined with US Labor Day holiday kept trading within financial markets soft and subdued overnight. The return of trade war concerns following the disintegration of talks between the US and Canada weighed heavily on markets in the Asian region, with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and the major Chinese indices sustaining considerable losses. It places traders in a starkly different position compared to last week when it was hope that perhaps US President Trump and his administration had turned a corner with their views on global trade. As has prove
  25. Trade negotiations: Global markets ended last week on the back foot, after trade talks between the US and Canada stripped traders of some hope that the global trade-war may be de-escalating. It was figured that following the relatively positive developments in US-Mexico trade negotiations early last week that perhaps a change of tact was emerging from US President Trump’s administration regarding global trade. Hopes were quashed upon news that negotiations between the US and Canada had broken down – a situation that became more bitter after US President Trump lashed out at the Canadians in typ
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