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jamko

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About jamko

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  1. Hi Zero Its the XJO I posted the chart at around 11 am when it was at 5193.3 and trying to rise it fell back to 5177 a half hour later Looks like Hopeful was on the money with that one cause it broke support again at around 4pm dropping just short of the 5160 target Hope that makes more sense Cheers jamko
  2. Hi Hopeful Could be a while before it gets back down to 5177 but if your looking for a quick short then there may be something in that as well. I was actually thinking more long term as in a drop to between 5117 & 5100 if it is a wave c of iv Or down town around 4826 before any serious resistance if the trend has changed. On the other hand it could break through resistance at 5222 and complete wave v up. So we have support at 5177 and resistance at 5222 - a clear break of either should give us our signal Cheers jamko
  3. Any suggestions on this ASX situation ? I have used the hourly chart with no clutter to get a better reading on the current price action Do we have a truncated wave v at the 5222 double top indicating a trend reversal ? Or is this wave b of iv completing leaving us with wave c down to complete wave iv ? Either way the candlestick pattern along with resistance gives us a sell signal. Problem is that the daily chart seems to be indicating more upward movement possibly early next week Cheers jamko
  4. Thanks Welshman Re EWI yes I have access to some of Elliot Wave International's services and even with a reasonable grasp on EW I find that you really have to read it at face value. EWI states that they are not there for specific trade advice as with IG or Saxo where you can recieve particular trade positions but to analyse the market in general leaning heavily on market ( human ) sentiment. To those who use the EW principle it can be used as a very good market indicator as long as you remember that no one is perfect and their reading of a particular market could be mistaken which would be why they have a habit of providing alternative counts to some wave patterns. This is actually a good thing because they know very well how unpredictable the market can be and are using the principle to provide a viable back up should your trade go pear shaped on you. I have access to pro services currencies which has a section by the editor that provides great insight into how to utilise the information given in pro services. From training to action IS a very big leap but I have found that as long as you don't get too bogged down in the technical side it can provide some amazingly accurate forecasts to trade with. Patience & perserverance is the key be true to your trading plan and the world is your oyster. Cheers jamko
  5. Hi Welshman, I dont know if this helps at all but Elliot Wave International seems confident that wave A is complete & wave B has begun. With the consolidation that we have seen in gold recently it is difficult to feel secure with a short position. I agree with Mercury in regards to being more confident when gold is in a long position. A further consideration may be the relationship between gold and the USD they most often work as opposite indicators for each other. Of course this is not to be taken as gospel just an indicator of trend movements. Cheers jamko
  6. Good stuff Mercury couldn't agree more. You seem to have pegged me pretty well there and of course the part about the risk management is quite true. With a small budget it is difficult to get any worthwhile positions on and yes 3% is ample if the funds are there. I have found that patience & constant monitoring of a position once opened is paramount to my risk management. Initially I relied far too much on my stop positions but a few bad losses soon put an end to that line of thought. I now use a preservation of capital mentality where I carefully monitor the position I have opened for any negative feedback and do not hesitate to get out if it looks to be turning against me knowing that I can look to re enter as soon as the position improves thereby avoiding the loss of funds. This has led to a great improvement in profit regarding win / loss ratio which is around the 40% mark at present. In regards to the diary I do have a running traders diary that I keep on memory stick but I have never been a diary type of person and I struggle to keep it up to date. Cheers jamko
  7. Yes mate EUR/USD it is, you may be onto it with the 76.4% I have trend lines in place that put it around there but I am hard pressed to find a strong enough resistence line, perhaps I'm not looking hard enough ? By the way have been watching the DX ( US dollar basket ) for the exact opposite of this ? Cheers jamko
  8. Nice work Mercury I fully agree but being the cheapskate I am I hope to wring the last few points out of this wave before I go short just to save a couple of dollars on my stop Cheers jamko
  9. Thanks Zero It's still a work in progress but the more I trade with it the more confident I become. It is always difficult when its your own cash at stake. I've been lucky to have a mentor to explain a lot of the trading methods but being old school he hasn't really gotten into EW specifically, that has been my own research. I think the most important thing we have discussed is that it doesn't really matter what style you feel is best for you it's the mental approach to that method that counts. Cheers jamko
  10. Hi Zero Yes I guess you are right with that I have only just started with this community so I suppose I am just sounding out how different people approach the market. Elliot wave probably isn't much use to someone trading intraday there is other more workable tactics to employ for that. I usually trade medium to long term and have found EW to be very usefull because it employs a large variety of methods into 1 workable package. Quite handy for confirming price action on the longer term positions. I have taken short term & intraday positions in the past but I must be too lazy for this because I find it takes a little more effort than I would like. With longer term once you are comfortable with the position you have open you can relax a little and see if there are any more coming up in other markets. Depending on the market you can travel anywhere from 100 to 1000 points and just adjust the size of your position to suit your budget. I think maybe I have made this sound easier than it really is. Elliot wave can be very complicated and to be quite honest I don't believe I will ever master it but a good understanding of the basics can go a long way. Cheers jamko
  11. Hi Zero The most likely explination for the ASX is the recent selling was part of wave 4 down. Elliot wave principle requires an upward wave 5 to complete before a trend change The tricky bit here is that the buyers now have their chance to prove a point and the length of the wave will depend on how confident they are in this market. Usually a rise to the previous wave peak at around 5222 on March 12 can be used as a guage for the minimum target range of the wave. Hope this helps Cheers jamko
  12. Hello everybody, I have been using the IG platform for almost 12 months now and only just noticed the community platform this morning while looking for info following the FOMC announcement. I noticed the post by Mercury in reply to ramji and thought might be a good way of introducing myself. Here is my reply to the questions posed in that post, bearing in mind that it is only my personal outlook not advice. 1) For me position size is dependant upon financial risk and must be calculated to suit each case, whether it be the amount of fund's you are prepaired to risk or the length of the wave you wish to open a position on. 2) For the time being I am sticking to CFD,s mainly because I prefer to get a solid grip on 1 concept before moving on to another thereby reducing confusion and God knows this is difficult enough without adding further complications. 3) I determine position entry points initially using price action alone. First on the list is trend and I very rarely bid against it. Next is support & resistance that accommodates EW principles. On the daily chart I then check Bollinger & the KDJ stochastic along with MACD & RSI just to confirm my reading of the price action. If there is conflict then I will not trade until the conflict is resolved. If there is agreement on at least the majority of indicators then I will use the shorter time frame charts to fine tune the specific entry point of course after determining my stop & limit. 4) Sadly stop positions are a thorn in my trading side at the moment. Being new to this form of trading means that my trading account has limited funds until I can provide a regular income from it. For the time being I am allowing about 10% of balance as my risk ratio maximum and only trading on the most confident of positions. As for determining the actual stop position I usually try to get into a trade after I have counted the minute wave i & ii once I believe a wave has turned. I then use the completion of wave ii as the entry point & the turning point of the previous wave as the stop adding a couple of extra points just in case of a spike. 5) My target exit or limit is predetermined by price action using support & resistance and EW principles, if for example I looking to go short on the EUR/USD I would use a formula of support at the next lowest wave completion confirmed by fibonacci count as my first target and for the following target positions. 6) Tracking an open position is most important even with long term trading. Generally speaking if I have an open position that I think should trade for some days I will still check on it's progress several times per day. Once I see that the market is reaching my set limit then I will monitor it more closely and decide whether to pull out, let it hit the limit or raise the limit and let it ride. This is not an exact science and can never be perfectly forecast so dilligence is paramount on all open positions. I hope this gives a little insight to my trading strategy and I look forward to any constructive comments Cheers jamko
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