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Eurobonus

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Everything posted by Eurobonus

  1. Another 6 million plus unemployed in the US. Most economists forecast well over 15% unemployment rate by the end of this month which is worse than the Depression of 1929. But the markets are soaring. Is there something I am missing?
  2. It seems as if people think that the stimulus packages are free. At some point in time, it has to be paid for one way or another. Either through budget cuts or most likely accelerating inflation once it takes hold. Furthermore, once I have extrapolated out the cancelled dividends, cessation of share buybacks and the massive increases in unemployment, I just can't see how the markets can be anywhere near the levels that they are right now - S&P 500 close to 2,800. It seems as if investors believe that there will be a quick V-shaped recovery. I sincerely hope that this is so, but my brain says that this is wishful thinking. Be interesting to hear your thoughts on this.
  3. There is just one major issue. Countries which have been in lockdown reopening their borders will import cases like what has happened in China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Japan is expected to call a National Emergency very soon. So how can the global economy recover quickly as 2nd and 3rd wave spikes will occur. Any chance of travel picking up to anywhere near pre-Wuhan virus pandemic? I certainly can't see that the global economy can recover quickly.
  4. Markets are cruising upwards for no apparent reason, totally ignoring the growing unemployment rates across the world and business failures. Thus, ignoring all fundamentals. Extrapolate out share buybacks and cancellation of dividends and stock markets would be much lower than what it was pre-Covid19 bear market. I just can't see why the markets are rebounding unless some have inside knowledge of a vaccine or cure in the pipeline in the very near future. Anyone has a rational argument for the rebound in the stock markets?
  5. I cannot see that the global economy will have a fast recovery. I can only see a depression looming unless a vaccine is quickly developed. This is the first time in a long time that the US has been directly affected by a major negative event (9/11 was localised). With the US slowing down, there is no other economy that will be able to create the demand required to get us a fast recovery. China's domestic demand is not large enough and Chinese personal debt was going through the roof even before the virus pandemic. How will the world and the global economy be once this pandemic subsides? I think a very changed society and traditional retail will be one the worst sufferers. Also with all this money printing, is there a risk of hyperinflation in the long term? Well, gonna buy a couple of KGs of gold just as insurance and not for investment per se. Also think property prices will come under the cosh so sitting on cash will enable you to buy distressed properties as getting loans will be hard for many. I am reevaluating my log term investment strategy to take into account the changing environment.
  6. I personally think that there is no chance that there will be a V shaped recovery. Looking at the latest unemployment figures, I foresee a prolonged recession if not even a depression as the shock affects both the supply side and reduced demand. Without a strong demand recovery, the economy will be very slow to recover.
  7. I am not a pensioner but worried about those who draw pensions. Just look at the white pensioners in Zimbabwe and what happened to them when there was hyperinflation. Their savings became more or less worthless over night and their pensions barely covered the cost of a loaf of bread.
  8. With so many companies slashing or cancelling their dividends, what will happen to pensions? There is no way pension funds can keep paying out old pension levels with such reduced returns from their assets. Also, won't this keep pressure on equities from rising?
  9. It seems as if several US Senators and government officials started selling their equities late January and beginning of February after briefings about Covid-19. So US government already predicted a severe pandemic hitting the US but Trump kept insisting that the virus was not so serious and all under control.
  10. And now on SKY News, they are warning of future HYPERINFLATION. That's what I am worried about. Seriously considering buying a few KGs of gold as insurance.
  11. I am sure a lot of rich people have lost a lot. I know a US hedge fund guy who has lost $115 million and essentially broke. Two ex-Goldman Sachs traders who set up their own fund have had to close it. Think most will pay in one way or another.
  12. I strongly believe that there will be tax relief as well as delayed tax payments to alleviate cash flows. But it seems people believe that the government has an endless amount of money available or can print unlimited amounts of money. However, there is always a cost and someone always has to pay. The measures have to be made but I am just worried about the medium to long term consequences.
  13. Cause I am in self quarantine and nothing better to do. But my big positions I execute via Credit Suisse. They provide me with all the tools - shorting, options, futures, mini futures etc. IG I do for fun.
  14. You are really an arrogant know it all. You make a lot of assumptions based on your prejudice and arrogance. I have a BSC in Economics from the LSE and a MSc in Finance from the London Business School. I started my career with Deutsche Bank, been CFO for an international company, Associate Director of Finance for a company managing well into the teens of billions of pounds in real estate assets. So yeah your assumption that I have just graduated is probably correct dmedin. Furthermore, you don't remember 1987 and the inflationary pressures afterwards?
  15. The bank bailout primarily only really led to inflation in the stock market as evidenced by the subdued inflation. This will be different if money is just handed out as it will then also fuel increase in demand without any increase in productivity. That will just fuel inflation in the real economy.
  16. Of course, governments have to provide support to the economy, businesses and individuals. But I just wonder how all these massive packages will be paid for. A lot of people are demanding that governments print even more money than already announced via QE. I see this just leading to massive inflationary pressures that will stoke interest rate rises in the medium term. That might result in an even bigger problem than the Coronavirus problem with so much personal, corporate and national debts.
  17. Newsletter readers also wrote in with their ideas for conditions to attach to bailouts. One suggested altering business insurance policies to cover losses related to shutdowns (and then provide federal funds to backstop the insurers), while another said any rescue of the airlines should require that they widen their seats and add more legroom. I like that idea about forcing any airline who accepts a bailout to make seating less cramped! Anyone agrees?
  18. Whatever the governments and central banks have announced to support the markets and economy, nothing has had a lasting effect. The markets keep falling steadily downwards. Where is the bottom? I have shorted down to 2,000 for the S&P 500.
  19. Latest news regarding the effects of all the fiscal easing and emergency spending: Treasury Yields Rise and Bond Markets Wobble as Governments Eye Trillions in Coronavirus Stimulus Trillions in planned coronavirus stimulus is colliding with billions in new bond purchases from global central banks, and bond markets are starting to feel the impact. So government attempts to stave off an economic catastrophe with their policies are just inflaming and accelerating the next major problem which is rising interest rates. People, companies and governments will then face the next challenge of how to manage their debts when interest rates start rising.
  20. A. LSE has and still is very leftist and so are most of the professors there. B. I have studied most of the economic philosophies of the left and right. You are just an arrogant know it all.What are you doing on IG if you don't believe in capitalism? C. If you have studied history, gold has been a means of convenient exchange rather than full barter. So if paper money becomes worthless, how will trade occur? We need a mechanism for exchange and gold is limited in its volume and can be used for other purposes so will have some intrinsic value. But you are so set in your views and conspiracy theories that it is pointless to have a rational discussion with you.
  21. Eurobonus

    GOLD PRICE

    With the chaos in the stock markets and falling oil prices, normally in such turbulent times one would normally expect gold to rise but it has fallen back a lot. I am tempted to buy physical gold and store it with a First Tier bank. I know very little about gold and never really traded any commodities so would welcome any ideas where you think gold is heading. I just want to have an insurance if paper money becomes useless. Look at how many emerging market currencies have lost so much of their values like the Turkish Lira, Lebanese Pound, Russian Rouble etc. Anyone thinks such an insurance is a good idea?
  22. I had similar problems with all my positions - short positions in the S&P, FTSE, Oil and could not do anything with intermittent so called technical problems. Also they keep stopping trading in the indices and when they open, they normally rapidly move in the opposite direction. Wiped out thousands for me the other day. How can I hold open positions with this kind of policy by IG?
  23. I had a pretty weird event late last night. IG closed almost all major indices. When they came back live, the price rose dramatically like 2% plus in a few seconds. Was this closure due to IG rules or was the closure due to CME rules? Very confused as it cost me a lot as it wiped out all my profits which were quite substantial and actually put my positions into loss. Just curious and would be grateful if someone could answer this question. PS. Where do you think S&P 500 and FTSE indices will bottom out? I bought a put option on the S&P500 with a strike price at 2000.
  24. I exited all equities on Monday this week and bought a S&P 500 put option - strike price 3100 at $46.70. Already more than doubled my investment. I was pricing in a 5% drop from Monday midday. But the potential costs to the global economy can be astronomical. So my guts and my head say that the price should fall significantly more in the next few weeks if the WHO labels the Covid as a pandemic. I think that there could be a further correction greater than 10%. What are your forecasts?
  25. The ascendancy of Asia and in particular China is due to Western short term outlook whereas China takes a long term perspective. At the moment, China enjoys an unfair playing field. Why would they want to change this? As US China trade talks have been going on for decades, it is obvious that they are following a similar strategy to the Roman commander Scipio Africanus. Delay, delay until the time is right to strike. This is obvious what they are doing with their trade talks with the US. It is just impossible to have the current trade imbalance forever. Ceteris Paribus, China will become the technological superpower that could easily eclipse the US as they don't look at quarterly bottom lines but 10, 20 or even 100 years ahead. The western powers could easily be likened to Hannibal whereas the Chinese to Scipio. Hannibal was a brilliant tactician and had initial gains in Spain and in Italy. But the better strategist, Scipio ultimately prevailed leading to the total destruction of the Cartheginians. So perhaps the West should learn from history if it wants to remain the dominant economic world powers. I am not a fan of Trump but in his position vs China I support his stance. If unchecked, China will soon become the world's largest economy and all that entails like being able to outspend the US on defence. Will the world be a better place with China as the dominant super power? Think the Uighur community and the Tibetans might disagree that it would.
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