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rimmy2000

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rimmy2000 last won the day on November 17

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About rimmy2000

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  1. rimmy2000

    Christmas Rally 2018 thread WIP

    Nice contributions. As we get nearer, let's take some guesses for FTSE 100 Close on last day of trading ? For me.. it's a bit early to get stuck in and predict or take a position yet... Monitoring for that 'right time'!
  2. rimmy2000

    PSAR values

    do you mean this? calculated S&R levels ?
  3. Work in progress ... Ho ho ho! Its soon approaching Christmas (dare I even say it) although I think as early as late October I recall seeing baubles and festive goodies in the local shops. It has been a bit of a mixed year really, started good, then flatlined. Still need to review overall performance although that will come end of year. I thought I’d kick off early and knock up a quick thread for the infamous Christmas rally. Especially with the marktes having sold off very recently (on 26 Oct the FTSE 100 saw a low of around 6,854 there is some argument for entering a starting stake soonish, to take advantage of the low spot, and adding to that if the markets look favourable or closing it out if the volatility persists. The FTSE is currently in line with its 20day EMA, around the 7,100 level, and under the 100EMS of 7,338. We had a high of 7,903 on 02 May 2018, and the year low as mentioned above was 26 October. Looking back to last year, November the rally did not kick off really until 8th December, and through November lost about 200 points from 7,500 level down to 7,300 through the month. According to the 2018 Almanac, which is full of great stats and insight, a plotted FTSE 100 index taking data from 2000 to 2016, in the trading days from early November to to end December, the month of November is typically flat or weak through the 11th month, with the best indicator of a rise triggered on the 9th December. The book helpfully points out that trading day 10 of December 2018 will be on date 14 December. Since 1984 we are told the UKX has risen in 59% of years during November However, factor this in with what we know : ie, the markets have already gone through a period of some weakness over the last couple of months. We also need to know what economic events are on the horizon. We can use the IG economic calendar for this https://www.ig.com/uk/marketanalysis/ig-economic-calendar/2018/11 23 Nov US NYSE closed for thanksgiving 05 Dec UK FTSE shuffle 07 Dec US NFPs 13 Dec EUR ECB governing council meeting These are the events sticking out for me, I’ve left off anything after the 14th December, as we hope the rally to have commenced by then. Feel free to add your views, TA or charts in the run up to Dec. Feels too early to say ‘I hope it’s been a good year’ at this stage, with two months to go. But let’s see how the next two crucial months unfurl. Rgds Rimmy2000
  4. rimmy2000

    William Hill WMH

    It is quite tricky for me to write here in the interim. Obviously hindsight is a wonderful vantage, and looking back I could have sold, taken a chunky profit, then bought back in. But hey-ho, would not have known that at the time. Additionally, this brings up an interesting point that was written about in a Jesse Livermore book I am slowly reading. And that being that we must, must, consider that one aspect of our trading, or one dimension of our trading (as JL calls it) is time. Time is the dimension that allows us to consider Opportunity Cost: what am I foregoing by holding this position. I am holding out for the consolidation but this may take months or even years to realise. And in that time there are other shares ticking along that I cannot be invested in because of the holding here. This is an important lesson to bear in mind. But we have had signs that industry consolidation is ongoing, (driven even more so by regulatory changes in the UK that will exacerbate this, imo) WMH bought a smaller european company called Mr Green* which it is using to broaden their reach further. So we know the industry is still fragmented and the economies are coming by buying up and achieving synergies through overhead reductions. *never heard of them before! Ladbrokes went through a similar 'pit of dispair' before it was bought by Coral, the price continued to slide until it got opportunistically cheap and was pounced on. I expect something like this will still be the end game for WMH - the CEO mentioned it himself(!) although I expect given the changes in the US then the suitor may be from the US. We have had a trading update today which I need to digest, and also today sees a Capital Markets day which will inform the city of its plans https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/capital-markets-day/201811060700134151G/ and its three priorities: · Driving digital growth in the UK and internationally; · Growing a business of scale in the US; and · Remodelling UK Retail. We continue to wait, and in the meantime we receive dividends "As previously stated, the Group's dividend policy is to pay out c50% of underlying earnings and as communicated at the 2018 half-year results the Board is committed that, for 2018, this will be calculated excluding US Expansion."
  5. rimmy2000

    Twitter NYSE:TWTR

    yes, that would have been worth buying into, ahead of results. Seen similar with BT today, when you get a few profit warnings in a row the marked revises down its estimates, and eventually you get a beat/ahead of expectations ? personally I just ignore these in my portfolio as they are medium term holding, but starting to get traction back.
  6. rimmy2000

    UK Homebuilder shares

    not sure if this is too little, too late but here is a comparison of the major housebuilders' featured above. they are all still good value but remember its a cyclical sector. I read a piece in CityAM today that a positive brexit deal will likely see the top end of the housing market rebound. (quite busy so brief posts right now) cheers all
  7. rimmy2000

    UK Homebuilder shares

    @elle is producing some good homebuilder charts here. I think things got too oversold, esp with CRST at under £3, and it looks like the board have been taking advantage here. Personally didn't have any free cash to add else CRST would have been one of my top buys. It is still in my pf as a hold though, slightly in the red but the dividend is secure and happy to hold these. Another one to look at is Telford Homes (TEF) which is primarily London based but also come off a long way.
  8. rimmy2000

    Twitter NYSE:TWTR

    I think it was an earnings beat. WIll have to come abck with more info, (unless anyone else can kindly summarize?) Up 13% IN A DOWN MARKET
  9. rimmy2000

    Quick trade ideas

    closing this out on paper at £18.40 Still hold some stock, but need to look at what is affecting the price here. happy to continue holding. this would likely be an 'average down' situation, depending on what is causing the price weakness. forecast PE is now 13, cheaper rating than Primark (ABF)..
  10. rimmy2000

    UK Homebuilder shares

    great thread topic! I hold a few CRST. I think the sector is pricing in gloom. I think a macro picture is as important as each companies prospectus right now. Market seems to be pricing in brexit gloom n doom and many householders are on (relatively speaking) crazy cheap valuations. Let;s try and update the thread over the weekend with some of the main players.
  11. rimmy2000

    Norcros NXR

    Yes its a fairly humdrum company and I suppose diversification could help, or indeed it could fit as part of a portfolio for a wider group. I definitely think it is a safe bet, albeit boring, but should be fine over time. And pays a decent dividend in the meantime. Perfect for a SIPP or somewhere for a long term hold, imo.
  12. rimmy2000

    Norcros NXR

    11 Oct TU was inline. https://www.investegate.co.uk/norcros-plc--nxr-/rns/trading-update/201810110700056598D/ Clearly a boring co, so no excitement here, but I continue to hold. Yield 4%+, PE less than 7, "Group revenue for the first half is expected to be approximately £162.5m (2017: £145.0m), 12.1% higher than the prior year on a reported basis," growth coming from acquisitions but the strategy is cross-selling so happy wit The attempts to break out earlier have failed but who knows in the short term. Continue to hold
  13. rimmy2000

    Superdry

    starting to look interesting..!
  14. rimmy2000

    Tree Shakes

    Another example case in point here: No news flow relating to the fall. All losses quickly reversed in the space of a single session. I note other forums are referring to this as a shake too. And I note Robbie Burns (Naked Trader also has a position recently) There's not much you can do in these situations, but a 10% drop will catch many stops and trigger sells, and force some smaller holders to panic sell their position (some may even regret and end up buying back their position) There is a chance the lack of news flow means the market has caught on to something but it is also likely the move is a feign and if you are quick you can take advantage..? I bought in at 145.9p today, not a huge position, more out of curiosity and knowing something didn't smell right with the move. So opened essentially the bottom of the dip. And will hold until EOY most likely. The wider volatility in the markets is causing a lot of the unrest, possibly part of the issue, and that about 40% of these are held by institutions.
  15. rimmy2000

    Tree Shakes

    Coincidence.. Just Sayin' ..! Last 19-Sept sell off from 50ish pence Fri 28-Sept, price plunges over 10% intraday, and then reverses all gains (see chart below) Today..> https://news.sky.com/story/french-connection-chief-marks-to-call-time-on-high-street-career-11518926 news that owner and 42% share holder S Marks is looking to sell his stake. Some views have suggested a sale at £1+ I hold these in a SIPP, btw. (Also look at the large and unusual volume spikes. Buying on the price weakness)
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