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rimmy2000

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rimmy2000 last won the day on November 17 2018

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About rimmy2000

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  1. another US Casino opening a WMH sports book https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/affinity-gamings-lakeside-hotel--casino-announces-opening-of-william-hill-sports-book-300898748.html Market announcement in interims for tomorrow. https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=wmh Anecdotal evidence says the group are now closing shops and tidying up the operation for a US suitor to swoop. Of course the depreciation of GBP will make this a more appealing prospect than before. We wait.. Hope everyone is surviving the turmoil of late.
  2. Hi, A quick note to mention the 2019 Mello Awards are now live for voting. You can view categories and vote at https://forms.gle/uYpMTnfn6hjsdVSy6 (IG are in the running for two categories) Thanks
  3. Hi! Today we are *hopefully* seeing a trend reveral. Currently about 17% up intraday and this time the fundamentals are playing out. Today results were released and you can see the shareholder letter for 2019 Q1 here >> https://s22.q4cdn.com/826641620/files/doc_financials/2019/q1/Q1-2019-Shareholder-Letter.pdf So what have we got: mDAU (monetisable daily average users) eg, real users, not 'bots' up 11% - growing user base. Revenue up 18% Op Mgn 12% and operating income $94m Total US revenue was $432M, an increase of 25%. Total international revenue was $355M Total advertising revenue was $679M, +18%. Y/Y growth accelerated in the US relative to Q4, with ad revenue up 26%. So we are finally getting traction. Currently looking at $30bn valuation. Some sources (not me) are saying $100bn, or three fold increase. Who knows really, but short term this looks to be finally getting noticed. My most recent purchase was to add more on 11 feb at $31. Not huge but increased by what cash I had available. Finally I almost opened a dfb today at $36 but didn't get the price I was after. Never mind. Not much more to say here except keep an eye on the growth story. I continue to hold.
  4. this is really relevant to me, see 15:20 min onwards https://www.piworld.co.uk/2017/01/02/conkers-corner-edward-roskill-interview/ "trying to be really disciplined is very important" "trying to be distinguish between fundamentals and the stock price which can be completely different" 18:00 "prices can behave peculiarly" "price is an irrelevance" https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/18/eldorado-resorts-caesars-explore-merger-sources.html we wait.
  5. Nice contributions. As we get nearer, let's take some guesses for FTSE 100 Close on last day of trading ? For me.. it's a bit early to get stuck in and predict or take a position yet... Monitoring for that 'right time'!
  6. do you mean this? calculated S&R levels ?
  7. Work in progress ... Ho ho ho! Its soon approaching Christmas (dare I even say it) although I think as early as late October I recall seeing baubles and festive goodies in the local shops. It has been a bit of a mixed year really, started good, then flatlined. Still need to review overall performance although that will come end of year. I thought I’d kick off early and knock up a quick thread for the infamous Christmas rally. Especially with the marktes having sold off very recently (on 26 Oct the FTSE 100 saw a low of around 6,854 there is some argument for entering a starting stake soonish, to take advantage of the low spot, and adding to that if the markets look favourable or closing it out if the volatility persists. The FTSE is currently in line with its 20day EMA, around the 7,100 level, and under the 100EMS of 7,338. We had a high of 7,903 on 02 May 2018, and the year low as mentioned above was 26 October. Looking back to last year, November the rally did not kick off really until 8th December, and through November lost about 200 points from 7,500 level down to 7,300 through the month. According to the 2018 Almanac, which is full of great stats and insight, a plotted FTSE 100 index taking data from 2000 to 2016, in the trading days from early November to to end December, the month of November is typically flat or weak through the 11th month, with the best indicator of a rise triggered on the 9th December. The book helpfully points out that trading day 10 of December 2018 will be on date 14 December. Since 1984 we are told the UKX has risen in 59% of years during November However, factor this in with what we know : ie, the markets have already gone through a period of some weakness over the last couple of months. We also need to know what economic events are on the horizon. We can use the IG economic calendar for this https://www.ig.com/uk/marketanalysis/ig-economic-calendar/2018/11 23 Nov US NYSE closed for thanksgiving 05 Dec UK FTSE shuffle 07 Dec US NFPs 13 Dec EUR ECB governing council meeting These are the events sticking out for me, I’ve left off anything after the 14th December, as we hope the rally to have commenced by then. Feel free to add your views, TA or charts in the run up to Dec. Feels too early to say ‘I hope it’s been a good year’ at this stage, with two months to go. But let’s see how the next two crucial months unfurl. Rgds Rimmy2000
  8. It is quite tricky for me to write here in the interim. Obviously hindsight is a wonderful vantage, and looking back I could have sold, taken a chunky profit, then bought back in. But hey-ho, would not have known that at the time. Additionally, this brings up an interesting point that was written about in a Jesse Livermore book I am slowly reading. And that being that we must, must, consider that one aspect of our trading, or one dimension of our trading (as JL calls it) is time. Time is the dimension that allows us to consider Opportunity Cost: what am I foregoing by holding this position. I am holding out for the consolidation but this may take months or even years to realise. And in that time there are other shares ticking along that I cannot be invested in because of the holding here. This is an important lesson to bear in mind. But we have had signs that industry consolidation is ongoing, (driven even more so by regulatory changes in the UK that will exacerbate this, imo) WMH bought a smaller european company called Mr Green* which it is using to broaden their reach further. So we know the industry is still fragmented and the economies are coming by buying up and achieving synergies through overhead reductions. *never heard of them before! Ladbrokes went through a similar 'pit of dispair' before it was bought by Coral, the price continued to slide until it got opportunistically cheap and was pounced on. I expect something like this will still be the end game for WMH - the CEO mentioned it himself(!) although I expect given the changes in the US then the suitor may be from the US. We have had a trading update today which I need to digest, and also today sees a Capital Markets day which will inform the city of its plans https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/capital-markets-day/201811060700134151G/ and its three priorities: · Driving digital growth in the UK and internationally; · Growing a business of scale in the US; and · Remodelling UK Retail. We continue to wait, and in the meantime we receive dividends "As previously stated, the Group's dividend policy is to pay out c50% of underlying earnings and as communicated at the 2018 half-year results the Board is committed that, for 2018, this will be calculated excluding US Expansion."
  9. yes, that would have been worth buying into, ahead of results. Seen similar with BT today, when you get a few profit warnings in a row the marked revises down its estimates, and eventually you get a beat/ahead of expectations ? personally I just ignore these in my portfolio as they are medium term holding, but starting to get traction back.
  10. not sure if this is too little, too late but here is a comparison of the major housebuilders' featured above. they are all still good value but remember its a cyclical sector. I read a piece in CityAM today that a positive brexit deal will likely see the top end of the housing market rebound. (quite busy so brief posts right now) cheers all
  11. @elle is producing some good homebuilder charts here. I think things got too oversold, esp with CRST at under £3, and it looks like the board have been taking advantage here. Personally didn't have any free cash to add else CRST would have been one of my top buys. It is still in my pf as a hold though, slightly in the red but the dividend is secure and happy to hold these. Another one to look at is Telford Homes (TEF) which is primarily London based but also come off a long way.
  12. I think it was an earnings beat. WIll have to come abck with more info, (unless anyone else can kindly summarize?) Up 13% IN A DOWN MARKET
  13. closing this out on paper at £18.40 Still hold some stock, but need to look at what is affecting the price here. happy to continue holding. this would likely be an 'average down' situation, depending on what is causing the price weakness. forecast PE is now 13, cheaper rating than Primark (ABF)..
  14. great thread topic! I hold a few CRST. I think the sector is pricing in gloom. I think a macro picture is as important as each companies prospectus right now. Market seems to be pricing in brexit gloom n doom and many householders are on (relatively speaking) crazy cheap valuations. Let;s try and update the thread over the weekend with some of the main players.
  15. Yes its a fairly humdrum company and I suppose diversification could help, or indeed it could fit as part of a portfolio for a wider group. I definitely think it is a safe bet, albeit boring, but should be fine over time. And pays a decent dividend in the meantime. Perfect for a SIPP or somewhere for a long term hold, imo.
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