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rimmy2000

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rimmy2000 last won the day on August 20

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About rimmy2000

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  1. rimmy2000

    Taking profits too early?

    eg this on TED has allowed me to specify my target. Its pretty simple but allows me to evaluate the trade.
  2. rimmy2000

    Taking profits too early?

    Hi @Mitchell2012 A lot of good practice suggests you should have this figure (target or profit taking point) in mind before initiating a trade. This is because theory suggests a trade should be driven by risk:reward, and you only know this if a) you know when to get out and b) the realistic target you are aiming for. And the target will depend on how you are applying a valuation to the trade. For example, in this article https://community.ig.com/forums/topic/4690-renold-rno-50-upside/?tab=comments#comment-4690 I looked at what I felt are the intrinsic value of the share, entered on a technical trigger and closed profits at about 40% gain. Of course the gain did not have to be taken, the stop could be moved-up in line with the gain and therefore run the profit. On other threads I have tried to value the shares using a variety of methods: previous takeover target prices (WMH) perceived imbalance of valuation compared to peers (TWTR) If you trade the large and mid caps then a very simple method is to set your valuation based upon perhaps the PE of the index and applying that across to your choice of stock. Another method I commonly use is PE mean reversion: trying to find a value based on the historic trading value of the stock. I have done this with TED, finding a valuation based on previous multiple and combining this with latest broker forecasts.. and I note by the way the stock is up 7-8% today. I think the reversal is underway (an aside point) So really it can be a horses for courses, and a multitude of factors, but the sane point is that you should have a basis for the trade and this would be based upon potential profit (eg target price) and perceived risk (how much you are willing to stake/lose on the trade. See if you can apply these principles to your trades. quick post as in france. Regards
  3. rimmy2000

    Tree Shakes

    yes, @PandaFace, if you set a stop, you have to be prepared for it to trigger. Nothing worse than seeing your stop triggered and then seeing the price revert, imo. Happened to me once with RGS, (now BLTG) One way to get around this is to use mobile/push alerts so if the price drops, say 5% or 10% then you get an alert, then you can review early on and check if there is cause for concern, and either sell, ignore, adjust position etc. I tend to do this rather than use stops. But do use stops if I am being extra vigilant about cash control. I think I'd be mighty peeved if I'd been in SBIZ, stopped out at 165 and two days later see the share above £2 upon results.
  4. rimmy2000

    Tree Shakes

    One of my alerts triggered earlier in the week for a share I had a kept a beady eye on. This piqued my interest somewhat especially as I began looking into the move. I thought I'd write quick piece about typical 'tree shake' activity' What is a treeshake: ‘where market makers shuffle a share price back on little or no volume after a sharp rise to induce profit takers to sell stock’ - as defined UK TRADERS BIBLE Simply Business (SBIZ) is a relatively new listing, and one that I caught interest in at Mello Derby investor event, earlier on in the year. What makes it interesting from our perspective is a lot of the shares are tightly held by management, Kenneth Davy (Chairman) holding around 40% of all shares, his wife another 12%, so it is evident this causes liquidity problems. The EMS is 1,500 shares which at today’s price is about £3k’s worth, so it can be hard to buy a good number of shares in any great volume, without paying through the nose. The share has done well this year and moved steadily from 150p in April this year to just under £2 through August. On 7th September an alert triggered me to the move. I could see a substantial spike down intra-day, so I checked RNS news yet no announcement or news was forthcoming, the price was retreating, pushing 165p so lurched approx 10% down on the day from 180p, which apeared quite extreme. It is also the case the price soon turned and recovered part of the ground it lost, almost as quick. This was all over in probably 30 minutes. A quick recovery. See chart 2 below for 30 minute bars. Those with even 10% stop loss in place would likely have their loss triggered and be exited only to see the price rapidly recover. What is key to note here is that results were imminent: ie next day or two. This did make me wonder if a) news had leaked, or b) if the results were widely expected to be good, so a move higher post-results was widely expected. What is also key here is the move was not happening on large volumes of trades either. (img 3) On the day it occurred only 74k shares were traded. So not especially higher than preceeding days. But interestingly after interims, volumes were a lot higher 398k, 762k, so far, far ore interest in the company once the results were announced. Orders queued up perhaps. Interim Results were inline with market expectations, but still punchy. Very quickly, the headlines with sales ^ 13%, EBITDA ^ 22%, adjusted PBT ^ 61% and EPS (adjusted) ^ 61.7%, Debt from -£1.6m to positive cash +£1.2m So it is plain to see the results were impressive, not ordinary and no doubt the share is / was in demand. Volumes have been higher so perhaps the price was depressed to free up some shares and fill a larger orgder. Who knows. Since the results the shares have continued their ascent to a new hight of 204p close 14th Sept. An easy gain to anyone with the conviction or agility to move in on the opportunity. What to learn from this: Tree shaakes do happen and have characteristics which can be checked versus a bad news sell-off/dumping of shares. We have loked at the typical signs to look for here, and I hope you find it useful. is there and news release causing the price drop? is the volume excessive and/or large trades going though? is the price recovering rapidly (intraday?) Is the free float restricted by large director holdings or institutional tie up? is a news story / earnings release imminent? Above all this there are opportunities if you are able and primed to act quick enough. I toyed with buying at 165p but refrained and now regretting it (usual story! 😂) But nevermind, it shows me the share is being pulled about and an opportunity will no doubt come again at some stage, I expect. Comments and views, as always, welcomed.
  5. rimmy2000

    Stock Scan and Filter

    some good suggestions here from @TrendFollowerand @Caseynotes I think you will struggle to get the pre-market data unless you have access to live (not delayed) prices. The IG Screener will give you the change versus prior five days but not change on y/day close - which is presumably what you are after. I think you will have to look to a few of the sources above from @TrendFollower as I cannot see a volume criteria on IG.
  6. rimmy2000

    Quick trade ideas

    I have mentioned RBG on threads elsewhere (I'll try and dig them out) There are rumors (well cited) of more merger/takeover talk. Share s up 8% today. No RNS yet but it looks likely. Last bid was rejected at 203p Price today 123p Target 203p+ if rumors prove to be confirmed. NOTE: I have shares in RBG edit here are my references to RBG
  7. rimmy2000

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    thanks @TrendFollower, it is good to see what you guys are up to. I think for me trading BTC would mean I'd struggle to sleep at night through the fear! I'll keep watching.. Keep me in the lopp on this one
  8. rimmy2000

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    I struggle to understand the basis for placing a value or target on Bitcoin. About 10 posts up (as recently as Monday) the view was bullish, with september correlating to a good month', and it could hit $10,000 but today we are hoping that it will hold the $6.1k mark..? To be clear, I am not having a go, -never would- but I cannot see how predictions can be made on this asset class. I don't see in the above any credible prediction for this fierce selling.. some people must be losing quite literally thousands in this game..? Maybe it is because I am not close enough to the discussion..? Don't get me wrong, I'd potentially be interested in taking a punt on a couple of cryptos, but I have no idea how to plot and understand a stable and risk-favoured point to go long..? $6,000, $5,000, $2,000, $200? In this article, a quoted tweet suggests the price could be being manipulated. https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-price-crash-cryptocurrency-market-value-ethereum-ripple-eos-cash-a8523761.html I might now follow these crypto threads a bit more closely as the price is dropping, but not sure if that means I am near to taking a position. I prefer assets that I can associate a value to. For instance, today I spent a couple of hours hands-on where I met a regional manager, had a tour, sampled a product, asked questions, double checked the accounts then added about £4k increasing a position on said stock. Alternatively I could have bought about 3/4 of a single bitcoin, I suppose. The bitcoin I have no idea what the 'right' value is. Or what it will be worth next week, or by the end of the year. I find it intriguing but also baffling.. Great thread by the way.
  9. rimmy2000

    William Hill WMH

    CFO buy £100k @£2.57p https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/william-hill-WMH/share-news/William-Hill-PLC-Director-PDMR-Shareholding/78197680 Nature of the transaction Purchase of shares by Director (inclusive of aggregated purchases by connected persons) ------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------ c) Price(s) and volume(s) -------------------- ---------------------- Price(s) Volume(s) -------------------- ---------------------- GBP2.5766 per 38,998 ordinary share shares
  10. rimmy2000

    Quick trade ideas

    far to scary for me..!
  11. rimmy2000

    William Hill WMH

    For anyone who trades exclusively off a chart, seems to be in a channel and hit the bottom this week, which coincided with the 23.6% fib line and point of prior support.. back into 300p+ ?
  12. rimmy2000

    William Hill WMH

    More news today from WMH. https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/us-partnership-with-eldorado-resorts/201809050700137733Z/ 'US partnership with Eldorado Resorts' Extends William Hill US' leadership in sports betting through access to Eldorado's leading regional casino portfolio and customer base of 23 million people William Hill becomes Eldorado's exclusive partner in provision of digital and land-based sports betting and online gaming Let's look at some quick and dirty numbers: WMH currently trades from 2 US sites revenue of £56.5m GBP (or 3% of annual turnover) So we already know the US contributes from a very small base to WMH revenues. This means there is easy scope to grow. The agreement opens up WMH for 11 further states using Eldorado partnership: "extensive market access of Eldorado - a major casino group with 21 properties across 11 states and a customer base of 23 million people." Assume the other sites achieve 70% of the revenue incurred at current sites, and the division of revenue currently is an even split (eg £56m/2) Work out potential across 11 states. Add to existing. Here is a table I knocked up quickly:
  13. rimmy2000

    Quick trade ideas

    Remember broker targets on this are around 50% higher around £3.30 Thread here. Position still in play and looks like its going for those high's again.
  14. rimmy2000

    Quick trade ideas

    Wondering if we might get a quick trade here Ted Baker (TED) 31/08/2018 BUY TED £22.22 (trading below own historic avergaes and on par with wider market) TGT £33? TED trading on f/c PE of 15.6, whereas historical average of PE 24. Q2 results expected 8th October. STOP under low £20.50, first TGT £26.50, if reached, move stop and target £33..? Expecting this to resolve by end Dec, with direction known by Q2 results. weekly, looking like bottomed-out. 200MA @ £26.65 (tgt1) NOTE: I ALREADY HOLD TED as shown in chart daily, looks like momentum building.
  15. rimmy2000

    Coca-Cola kicks off $5.1 billion Costa deal

    this is interesting. WHitbread had stated earlier in the year they were planning to separate the business. There was talk about floating it asits own business as it was undervalued. I watched WTB at open and it *appeared* as though the shares could briefly be bought around the £40 mark. Which I was scratching my head wondering why there was no premium added to the share price at open. I nearly took at opening position. The shares are trading around £48 now so I am kicking myself for not seeing if I could have bought at the pre marked up price. anyway, it was puzzling. For me this has wider implications about the state of the overall market. That namely being a) there are large deals being done where inherent value is not recognised in a stock's price. b) it gives us an indication perhaps of the attitude of large US suitors who can take advantage of a relative weakness in Sterling vs USD to make deals more affordable. c) it tells how companies are using their cash reserves and broadening their bases. These factors give me encouragement for a share I continue to hold and have written about at length on the forums. I see the effect of Trump-onomics (i made that up, btw) and especially legislation changes and the currency situation making it favourable that a US suitor will pick up WMH at some point (or at least bid for it) I don't want to hijack this thread and discuss WMH though. Same could be said of a number of other UK equities. I know one poster here has called FEVR short on valuation grounds. I agree with their rationale but look what happens when a bid comes out of the blue. Being short can be dangerous in such situations so is one thing to bear in mind. Anyway, talking of takeovers, I am mulling over heading to RBG for a spot of lunch and research to see how a the London sites are faring. This had a bid of 203p last year and is now down to around 118p following the rejection of the offer. Where there's smoke there's usually fire etc. As a closing point it is worth considering (certainly with any collapse or shock in the market) adding stocks like KO (Coca Cola) to a portfolio. It has had a remarkable history and although it divides opinion one thing is clear: the company is here to stay, despite sugar taxes and what-have-you, it is now diversifying into Coffee Chains so is certainly one to buy, in my opinion, if the market sees any correction. These are the sort of buy and hold/pension-type stocks.
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