rimmy2000

another quickie here, just to prove I have not abandoned(!) NXR is due to provide its next update Prelims in June -13th IIRC. https://www.norcros.com/investor-centre/shareholder-services/financial-calendar/ The price seems to be consolidating ahead of this. Anticipating good news to push higher, or no doubt if disappointment creeps in it could fall back. Interestingly I type this note from a large international hotel group, and noticed the other week that the showers they are fitted out with are a brand that is now owned by NXR, Merlyn! https://www.norcros.com/our-businesses/united-kingdom/merlyn/ Ownership of this brand could have a serious impact to the underlying figures now Merlyn is under NXR ownership and stewardship. Don't expect much over the next month or two, just noise, but I have annoted the chart to show the possible inflexion point. And it looks as though this will be news driven. Thoughts, questions? Rgds

Morning, Been a while posting here as really hectic elsewhere in my life(!) but not the chart below and yes, seems to always dip back to significant levels. This time is was a news triggered announcement that Treasury may accept the DCMS proposal of reducing betting terminal limits to £2 per play, the lowest of the possible price points, and lower than the GC recommended which I wrote about above ^ Well it seems as this may be the preferred stance for any would-be investor to take: better to err on the side of caution and be proven wrong to the upside, than be a dflated optimist, imo. And Until we know the likely outcome then we are all jsut speculating. My position is held (minus those where I top sliced as reported above ^) and I continue to hold *tempted to actually re-buy. I spotted a Paddy Power RNS yesterday in their Q1 update which is relevent: "Ahead of the expected introduction of new taxes, competition remains intense and market consolidation has commenced. We have reviewed our investment plans and see an opportunity to compete more aggressively to take advantage of the potential disruption to competitors. As a result, we are increasing investment in promotional generosity and marketing activity." his was the original rationale and nothing has changed.. we wait. Did anyone here attend Mello 2018 event in Derby? It was a fantastic event.

Something is brewing here. Up 2% today and nearing those highs again. The average daily traded volume of WMH is about 6-7m shares. Look at the spike in volume yesterday, in the chart below. This is looking back eight months. Additionally, looking at a table of volume, we see yesterday 57.18m traded, compared to around 4-5m in the prior days. I don't have much time to write at the moment as busy on committee for a large investor conference and holding down a job, but to me this is probably not insignificant!

draft work in progress / starts tarding update [capital markets] [volume] \ends

"Analysts had previously speculated that a maximum £2 stake could have reduced earnings for William Hill and Ladbrokes by as much as 28%." https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/shares-in-william-hill-and-ladbrokes-rally-on-less-onerous-change-to-betting-limits a 30% profit cut is tangible.

WMH jumped 4-5% today on news the gambling commission produced its recommendations in a paper on the future of the industry and changes it advises the industry adopts. The key points to note are: Advising that electronic machines should be capped at £30 per play (it is widely accepted the current £100 figure is too high) Slot machines (fruit machines) to have a maximum £2 stake. Other measures for the industry to demonstrate improved compliance and cooperation to protect consumers. The case is now in the hands of DCMS – to advise on these recommendations, to either adopt them or decide if they are too far one way or another. It is suggested that the Treasury obtain upwards of £1.8bn of tax income, and therefore are the government is in a bind really: implement reduced caps and obtain less tax receipts or leave as it is and be viewed as being unsympathetic to gambling consumers and not strong-armed on the industry. In terms of an investment proposition, clearly the risk is present, both Ladbrokes Coral and WMH gained today, which tells us the outcome of these measures will affect the whole industry, and the prospect of more regulation is making investors tetchy. I continue to think WMH is attractive from an investment perspective, and a 4% hike in the price today suggests the gloom is exaggerated. Market Cap is now £2.86bn f/c Yield at 4% or 13.5p in 2018 rising to 22.8p in 2019 Est 2018 PTP @ £286m and 2019 @ £254m (clearly these estimates may be reviewed as the guiding figures emerge from the review. I say this because clearly profit growth is currently forecast to be flat in 2019, but forecasting out this far is pointless given the situation) (EG PER of 10 this year) Lastly, don’t forget we also have a review of US gambling laws under a Trump administration and the prospect of a takeover surfacing again.

interesting video here https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts-embed/5a0c83bf0024026653e9bcc9/event/?livelink=true&popup=true

So often investors feel they have to make their decisions on purely quantitative factors: looking at profits, EPS, ROCE, Op Margin, debt, current ratio etc etc. It is true a lot of my posts and decisions are indeed focussed on these more traditional metrics, trying to find classic anomalies. Which is great for a lot of situations but not always required. For a start, a lot of tech stocks or growth stocks, these metrics don't become immediately relevant. One example of this would be Amazon. Amazon has never really made a signifiant profit. It has done this as a part of its strategy for growth and market penetration. And therefore if we waited for AMZN to declare a string of profits before investing then we would have missed a fantastic opportunity to benefit from the share price growth. Here we are are buying not into fundamentals, but more looking at the business model and the environment in which they operate. There are many models for looking at market strategy and positioning for example Porters Five Forces being one of them. But we also care about the fundamental direction of the markets of these businesses. Retail is moving online, and Amazon have benefited from this shift. Conversely Toys 'R' Us has felt the detriment to operating a traditional out of town business model. In this theme, I would not say Twitter at all is poor. Quite stellar in fact. Too often the business has been berated because it is not showing profits (well, more recently it is) or because it is not successfully monetising its platform. And largely this is true, and the market has been disappointed on earnings releases and the share price duly plummeted. However what we do have is a business that pervades every aspect of our lives these days. President Trump pumps out news on TWTR before the press agencies get the story. Nearly every business runs a TWTR account and the twitter logo appears on pretty much all consumer products these days. Companies setup social media departments to ensure they can handle the PR queries and outfall of their operations and consumers expect to be able to contact a company via Twitter and get an issue resolved. Twitter is 'sticky' user growth is not amazing using the MAU metric (monthly average users) but people stick around, it is less 'faddish' than some of the other offerings. TWTR has made its rightful place the destination for quality communications: eg. you can watch Question Tie and Dimbleby will refer to using TWTR to post questions and follow the debate. I don't see this trend fading in the next 5 or so years. Comparators such as FB is possible, and I used this to look ate relative mcaps, but they are different beasts really, and there is scope for not just one winner as they serve different groups. So we can compare market caps, we can compare brand value and we can compare traditional metrics. The real point though is that the doom vi. TWTR is much over rated. The risk of a take out of this listed entity is real (esp when the s/p was depressed) and rumors have circled before, because the market cap is a drop in the ocean to a company like AAPL with $200bn BILLION in the bank. I am not saying AAPL are a suitor, DIS have been mooted in the past, but the worth of the engagement, the stickiness of user, the steady growth and the perverseness , and the prospect of the data as well as the potential to refine opportunities for monetisation is enough for me. I think in these situations the value will become known in good time.

looks almost certain to be making new highs. One of my larger positions, I continue to hold.

New highs, closes up 7.3% today. I continue to keep hold of ALL my shares. Nothing here further to add. Value is discovered in the end.

We have news today > https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/disposal-of-william-hill-australia/201803060700057969G/ typically, WMH closes 2.7% up today, after I part sold some yesterday *rolls eyes* So in a nutshell then, the Australia division - which as we saw was being pressured by regulatory imposition, has been sold off, or an agreement in place to do so to CrownBet. I like this because it helps to simplify the business in line with its Strategic plans, and also releases capital the group can deploy to further its vision. The proceeds - some $300m AUD works out as £169m GBP, so about 10% of 2017 revenue. Clearly, the market welcomes this news.

There is not much to say on this one, other than it appears to be back in focus and perhaps re-rating. Note that the price seems to consolidate to form a flag/pennant shape then break upwards. Observers of TWTR would be wise to note this as it has occurred several times. The price consolidates and breaks out higher. I still hold my TWTR shares.

Took a tough decision and exited one position of WMH today, a total gain of about 26% was achieved. The remainder of my hlding will remain as the case above has not changed, and I think this will re-rate based on the outcomes described in the original post. So why sell? Well there is a sense that the market is ever more toppy and I wanted to have some cash around should we see further weakness in the market. For that reason, I sold a few thousand WMH shares today. Incidentally, it has not just been WMH that I have sold, but other shares where I am disproportionately invested, and where I have fairly stagnant or smaller holdings.

glad you are enjoying it! expect an interesting year from this, imo..

So a quick update on results and the price reaction yesterday. https://www.investegate.co.uk/william-hill-plc--wmh-/rns/final-results/201802230700047205F/ Initial reaction saw WMH open 2.8 percent lower, but the share actually ended up on the day. Buying seems to be relentless in WMH, the previous drop was bought back, and is now again returning to its previous highs. It seems like the momentum may be set to continue, of course the impinging review will have the major impact, so we could expect volatility when this is published, but I would personally be buying into any more shake outs. So onto the Friday results. One of the main aspects I noted the release was an exceptional charge of over 238 million pounds on its Australian operations for 2017. William Hill expanded in Australia in 2013 through acquisitions, and it looks like this division os going to be divested soon enough. William Hill is currently carrying out a strategic review of its Australian business, which is due to be completed by mid-2018, and Investec say they see a sale as “very likely” probably for a price of between 112 million pounds to 84 million pounds. This write down resulted in reporting a pre-tax loss of £74.6m for 2017, compared with a profit of £181.3m the year before. So this looks quite negative (hence the initial drop perhaps) but if we regard this as exceptional, then the picture looks quite different: Underlying performance had improved. Net revenues rose 7% to £1.7bn, while adjusted operating profit climbed 11% to £291.3m. Revenues from its online business rose 13%, which bode well given the investment MWH has been making into its online proposition. Adjusted operating profit for the 52 weeks rose to £291m, up from £261m previous. Growth at both online and high street retail businesses was above market rates. This leaves us looking at a historical reported EPS that has grown 24%, over the 12 months, to 27.6p. Put that on a 3yr average PER of 17 and we get a price of £4.69. and if the 2018-19 year can provide a 24% EPS growth then who knows. (we could speculate but there is little point, inherent value has been shown) No doubt potential suitors are eying-up these figures and biding time for the review announcement.

well they all look like legit AIM tickers, the only one I could not find was UPL(?) I don't see why IG would not have these available. Have you called the dealing desk to check? I would expect them to be available on a speadbet platform but I do not have a CFD account so cannot explain any more.

doesn't sound right to me. Are you sure you are doing everything correct. I always trade AIM listed on IG, both dealing and Spread Bet. You mean you can search and see AIM stocks but not place a trade? which stock are you looking to buy/sell?

this is taken from Shares magazine. supports the notion that SA trading enterprises may seek to benefit from a reinvigorated economy now former president Zuma has been removed from post. NXR derives some 30% of revenues from SA presently.

Full year results confirmed for Friday 23rd Feb.

Hey Steve nice to have another person join the forum. When you say 'learn trading' how do you distinguish this from investing in shares, which you say you have been doing for many years? are you referring to indicies and currencies maybe? In respect of shares then, do you focus on the Pharmaceutical sector? for example GSK looks quite appealing right now. Do you have any views on GSK? I hope to come across some of your posts and wish you well on here, and in your trading!

sounds like you are after a guaranteed stop loss, and you have placed it too close to the current market level.. that is my guess

dow drops another 1,000 points http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42991310

Well, I have been calling $TWTR for some time, and today I get alerted thus: Twitter has broken from the $2x dollar mark. This has proven an exceptional trade, I will make this my last comment on this thread. Hope its been useful to a few. Best,

this caught my eye, $SNAP has responded positively to its own release and now is valued at more than TWTR. Really... roll on tomorrow

which stock are you trying to buy? can you post their corporate website for me, to avoid ambiguity?