I'm a commodities trader and have recently entered the realm of NatGas.
I can honestly say, this is one of the most interesting markets that I've traded for years, and can highly endorse the fact that this follows core fundamental economics and the derivative markets do little to slow down the fundamental direction.
It's one of the few markets available now that doesn't follow these silly algorithmic price-action rules, it's a simple case of supply and demand, now and forecast - a simple forecast matrix with a seasonal twist.
My personal forecast for NatGas is Short (based on 6 months of research, price watching, and analysis of how this commodity has reacted over the past 12 years)...
1 week - 2.9 to 3 USD
1 month - 2.7 - 2.9 USD
1 quarter - 2.5 USD
1/2 year (summer) - 2.4
Happy to elaborate my reason but it would definitely take up a LOT of space on this forum, and would be better off writing a blog article in the near future combining all of my research and rationale.
I'll be posting on here regularly with mini summaries as and when i enter trades at certain levels.
I'm also an active EUR/USD and Gold trader, so you'll find me on those forums too