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Everything posted by donaldprice

  1. Not to sure 20years as its more the likely that another recession could happen, but medium term over next few years long european banks even some uk really look very attractive, if you are using traditional shares IG offers that account, would not reconmend that using spread trading or CFD as you wont get dividends.
  2. The pound is what is causing the FTSE to sell of, hence why it is a good correlation. 7200 is strong resistance for now, but it will inevitably break higher as this is a statistical fact, fundamentals are still strong and talks of repealing dodd frank will help boost bank shares which will lift the ftse higher.
  3. Hi casey not yet but I will try and catch up on it later on. I don't particularly like trading markets I don't know. I only really trade euro, aud and ftse. But will of course see it never know what ideas you may develop
  4. From the chart you can see that it clearly is struggling against the 250 handle with a current base on 230. If the 250 is achieved then the uptrend is set to continue, but as you say the bulls and bears will have to decide this,. I will keep an eye on this as although its been a long time since i even touched a stock, you do see some nice trades now and then, NEXT, BT & EASY JET are to name a few.
  5. Aud usd is my number 1 currency i do enjoy trading, but history seems to repeating itself again as a triangle seems to be forming on the daily timeframe. Currently Gold and AUD USD showing a a 76% correlation and this is evident in the chart below attached. At the epicenter of this of course is the dollar index. CFTC data is also showing an interesting changes as well with non-commercials increasing their net longs whilst of course the opposite with the commercials. How i would play this would be to observe the top resistance level at 7761 and a solid close above would negate the ABCDE pattern
  6. WM Morrisons is showing as an interesting trade. Supermarkets as most will know have been engaging in a price war. And consumer behaviour has moved from going to these huge stores to more online shopping + the emergence of the German stores. Now since BOE has stated that we can continue see a rise in inflation. Also a weaker sterling and current higher oil prices + the falling pound all impact on profit margins on the big 4 supermarkets. Net debt is expected to be around £1.2 billion at the year end. However, 2016/17 underlying profit before tax is now expected to be ahead of consensus. It is
  7. The Dow seems to be an interesting chart although i dont really trade the dow more of an indicator for me, it is regardless an interesting measurement of equity performance of the top 30 companies. Since their is talk of DODD frank being relaxed this of course is going to benefit banks namely JPM and GS who control 10% weight together on the index. This could therefore fuel the rally. Goldman sacks is also about to touch its 2007-8 all time highs. However failure to surpass this level could result in significant retrace of the index.
  8. Reviewing trade of the week for euro dollar the lesson to be learned is that the fundamentals driving this where starting: CFTC data showed a shrinking of dollar bull positioning. Trump team stating how the dollar is effecting them, a drop in GDP us growth, interest rates where expected to stay the same and finally today's NFP although US created higher jobs as stated before average hourly earnings are now very crucial to watch. I only trade a set amount of markets mainly FTSE & dollar pairs mostly aud & euro $. The DXY and Gold are my primary indicators since if the dollar goes up t
  9. The higher time frames show true reality of direction of trend and filters out all the noise. Indicators can be useful, but overall incorporating fundamental and technical go hand in hand. 15m are great for entries daily 4h are best for analysis.
  10. The FOMC decision is due at 2 pm ET (1900 GMT) Morgan Stanley: Fully Flexible Fed, We Continue To Buy USD Dips. Today's release of the Fed statement will be in focus. If the Fed wants to remain fully flexible it may need to increase, via its communication, the market probability of seeing the Fed acting in the spring. Hence, the USD will remain within a whipsawing environment in which we continue buying the dips. TD: No Change From The Fed, No Strong Reaction From Market. Focus turns to the Fed this afternoon. We expect the Fed to keep policy unchanged. More importantly, Fed officials a
  11. I do think their is a possibility of a test to the 9900 level on DXY of which if it holds then we could see a resumption of the dollar rally. Tonight is crucial to know what the FED is looking for and what data to watch.
  12. Thought i would start this post as an interesting article on the FT went by regarding UK motor insurance OGDEN, which is used to calculate personal injury claim. It would mean that reserves for past claims that have not yet been paid might have to rise, while the costs of future claims would also go up. Below is the article and those with greatest exposure namely Admiral and direct line. Also copied in current short positions on admiral. Announcement will be in February. UK motor insurers braced for hit from higher injury payouts Providers fear change to compensation rate when result of r
  13. Hear from the horses mouth, clearly explaining why they dont wish for clients to lose money.
  14. Does A Record Low VIX Have Any Predictive Power http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-26/does-record-low-vix-have-any-predictive-power
  15. If you trade a few times a month, i recommend Pro-realtime its free as long as you place 4 trades a month, highly recommend it. Much more historical data
  16. Hi Tri, spreadbetting companies dont need to bet against their clients since 80% (according to CME anyway) lose anyway. They hedge clients positions like any other broker. They are an execution only service. Their is always somebody taking the opposite side of the trade of you, example if you short EURO DOLLAR for £10 a point i may without knowing who you are, take the opposite side of that trade. The broker simply matches buyers and sellers, or the algos now. If shall we say you went long on BP shares and the broker or lets say the dealer finds a seller then his books are risk free. But somet
  17. The 10818-10874 level seems to be a more favorable area for me, if of course we see more temporary dollar weakness. 2 technical reasons for it. 1) previous daily resistance from ECB back in december and a 50% fib level.
  18. EURO DOLLAR could be setting up itself for next weeks NFP. It appears that some sort of rising wedge is occurring at present, but many hurdles to tackle at the moment. In order to really know if we are resuming the trend down we would have to see a break at the 10654 level on euro dollar. Fundamentally US data is what will drive this. But as a guide will all this DXY is the one to watch, but also along with gold, of which both Gold and EUR have found good support, for now of course.
  19. Here is an example of Aud usd bear in mind this is a 15m only of course.
  20. Yes that was what i was referring to, that the more times Support is tested, the stronger it becomes. Support and Resistance are lines on your chart. You should place your stop loss at Support and Resistance. Correction > number of touches the > weakness, S & R are zones only and Stop loss wise never place them in obvious S&R areas, because everyone will gun for them including all of us, lol.
  21. Check out gold, we are upping the bid in this zone of support also coinsidently a fib level as well. Some cash going into treasuries as well.
  22. And this is such a classic error that many make. By definition anybody who has used L2 data or price ladders will notice that traders will just up the bid or offers at particular support and resistance zones and others will see this and jump ship. This is why it all is a probability game, the same rule applies to trend lines.
  23. Just save the chart picture and you will then be able to print i believe.
  24. Gold looking edgy this morning must watch oyt for the 1195 level a break below this level could try and target the 1187-1181 level. Best keep an eye on treasuries as well as that to is currently got some support, how long it will last will depend on buyers taking control or at least hold the market level. Both looking dangerously bearish.
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