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Everything posted by donaldprice

  1. If you are looking at long term then many of those stocks look good, especially Rio, BP and Tesla. But careful with commodities as we have seen substancial gains and therefore might be best to wait for a decent pullback, also be aware as well that Trump may or may not deliver which could impact those stocks. It also depends what instrument you are using such as share dealing, futures, spread trading or CFD. Don't trade anything you cannot afford to lose. Final point with equity indexes at all time highs with a potential trade war as well many of those stocks could be impacted. Might be worth l
  2. BRIEF-Moody's - President Trump inherits modest deficit and healthy economy, but challenges loom http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSFWN1FD0TZ
  3. Strong dollar may prove Donald Trump’s match Sustained strength of US currency may provide an obstacle to president’s plans Richard Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally once told foreign counterparts that the US dollar is “our currency, but your problem” — a blunt observation that has often rung true. Under President Donald Trump it may no longer be so simple. The new US president inherits a subdued but long economic expansion, low but accelerating inflation and a robust jobs market, which will probably force more interest rate increases in the coming years. But the dollar may well p
  4. Trump to negotiate NAFTA and TTP: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/23/trump-to-sign-executive-order-to-renegotiate-nafta-and-intent-to-leave-tpp.html
  5. When you hear everyone calling parity that is exactly when you need to seriously question the positioning of the market. As you could see with cable, such heavy short positioning ended up in a squeeze. Trump knows all to well that a strong dollar is bad for exports and even though he may fail to stall the dollars bullish trajectory, he will without doubt do his best. Hence why we will struggle getting down to parity anytime soon.
  6. EUR USD is playing an interesting pattern. It is unlikely that this trend has changed from its bearish trajectory, but does look as if their is some more juice left in this bullish trade. Because Trump could announce a series of measures they could act as a catylist for either direction, but most likely this will be dollar bullish, which therefore would send dollar crosses including gold and treasuries lower.
  7. For gold and Aud usd they both have a positive correlation and gold of course has an inverse correlation with DXY. But looking at gold immediate daily resistance which daily shows much clearer picture and minimal noise suggests that the 1248 level is a strong resistance which a good fib level. Now 2 main factors would fundamentally drive this is: a weaker dollar or negative investment sentiment or political uncertainty. Trump is without doubt going to try and talk down the dollar, i cannot see the US all of a sudden start buying foreign FX and he may not be even able to prevent this. But lo
  8. Thanks Hannah for clarifying that for me and no doubt others. Kind regards Don Price
  9. ironically i was long aud usd but kept the position until 11pm, and i have just checked the statement mine says 3days DFX interest rate. Not sure why, but did not notice such a wide range for aud usd at 10pm. Just remember the spread is controlled by their ALGOS they dont physically do this, far too many securities otherwise, why 3 days worth of interest is a little strange.
  10. best also keep an eye on T-bonds as if we see a decrease in the yield then this will be bearish for the dolllar and bullish for all dollar pairs notably AUD, NZD AND GBP against the dollar.
  11. What to look out for from the ECB Bond buying, Brexit and Italian banks likely to be under scrutiny High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. The solid, albeit unspectacular, performance of the eurozone’s economy towards the end of 2016 all but rules out any monetary policy changes at Thursday’s meeting of the European Central Bank’s governing council. But there is a growing acceptance within the bank that it is running short of ammunition to counter any fresh political or financial s
  12. UK's May set to lay out plans for "hard" Brexit (fx live) UK PM Theresa May will this Tuesday make a keynote speech on Brexit 15 Jan We've known for a while that the PM will step up this Tuesday and reveal some of her Brexit strategy plans but there's mounting press coverage this week-end that it most certainly will be for a "hard" variety, and some. Yesterday I posted that the PM was once again being urged to reveal more about her Brexit plans and today The Sunday Telegraph reports that May will say that Britain must now: be prepared to leave the customs union to secure free trade d
  13. Hey their Pambaram, check out the technical analysis page as their some interesting threads myself and others have composed and be great to have some more involvement from others and share ideas. Below are some good links to elliot wave, fibonacci retracements also very helpful from a technical perspective. http://www.slideshare.net/neerajsaxena20/elliott-wave-theory
  14. ECB: Pressure to taper but Draghi won't waver – HSBC Research Team at HSBC notes that the Eurozone inflation is rising sharply, and the hawks might start asking for an early tapering of QE but Mr Draghi made a shrewd move in December, announcing an extension of QE to at least end-2017 and with underlying inflation subdued, HSBC doubt the ECB will be bowing to pressure just yet. Key Quotes “In December, Eurozone inflation climbed to 1.1% y-o-y, the highest level in over three years. There is more to come, and we think Eurozone inflation could reach 1.8% by February (even higher in some co
  15. Above are 2 interesting charts inflation vs unemployment, but the second chart with brent and eu inflation shows an interesting correlation, (have not calculated, but relationship seems positively correlated). Therefore one could assume that if we see oil prices continue upwards, wage growth increase and a falling euro currency then tapering of the QE program will be on everyones radar.
  16. Pound endures volatile trading on prospect of hard Brexit Traders await Theresa May’s speech and Supreme Court ruling next week Theresa May, the UK prime minister, bookended a volatile week for sterling, prompting a sharp rise in the cost of hedging against falls in the pound as she prepares to set out more information about her Brexit negotiating strategy. The pound rallied against the dollar on Friday, at one stage rising 0.6 per cent to regain the $1.22 mark. But traders are positioned for sterling to fall, underlining how Brexit is back on investors’ agenda after a short period of
  17. Cable/sterling traders best watch out Tuesday with Mays speech on Brexit. I do like this article from the FT that the chancellor could rethink the tax model if needed to turn Britain into a tax haven. Bad Brexit deal risks steep tax cuts by UK, says Hammond British people are not going to lie down wounded, chancellor tells German newspaper Britain could change its “economic model” to a tax haven if EU leaders refuse to agree to a satisfactory Brexit deal, Philip Hammond has warned. The chancellor said the UK could be forced to “regain competitiveness” if “we have no access to the Euro
  18. ECB has eroded the value of its forward guidance (FT) High quality global journalism requires investment. Although the US Federal Reserve surprised markets in December, it continued to work along the grain of the forward guidance previously provided. The same cannot be said of the European Central Bank. The ECB also surprised in December, but it did so in a way that clashed with its previous forward guidance. The US and the euro area both face considerable political uncertainty in 2017. The Fed is not adding to that by creating confusion about its reaction function. In contrast, the ECB ap
  19. Be an idea though for Mexico lol
  20. Some Peso Traders Want Mexico to Buy Twitter and Shut It Down https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/-shut-down-twitter-cry-goes-out-among-exasperated-peso-traders?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
  21. Hi Hannah i do use the long-short hedge technique as part of a pyramid model, it is a very useful tool to have i find especially when markets are in consolidation. In conclusion it does offer the potential to manage risk better and the added flexibility to manage a trade within a given security.
  22. CITI's weekly FX insight attached: https://www.citibank.com.hk/global_docs/mobile/investment/pdf/fx_insight_e.pdf
  23. USD CAD has finally broken trend-line support with immediate horizontal support at 130 area. If the dollar continues to sell of and oil rallies you are going to have the perfect recipe for the Canadian dollar to strengthen even greater. Trump wont want a strong dollar as this will make exports much less competitive, how he can stop it is another matter of course. Watch out for PPiI inflation friday this could be what reverses the current bearish trend.
  24. Donald Trump is going to be the greatest asset to every trader this year, "big pharma" my favourite 2 words of the day
  25. Gold and treasuries on the watch list, gold has got a very interesting formation, but how Trump's speech will result is frankly a roll of the dice.
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