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Everything posted by donaldprice

  1. It appears that its holding on to that present support around the 61% fib level, if you look of the half hourly chart, the momentum does seem to be slowing right down to the downside, of course as you say exercise caution, but a small risk of course. If there was a break down then without doubt, the target would be 107.63. By the way, the oil analysis a few days ago turned out to be really good, therefore a decent short at present, however the doha meeting could go either way with all these mixed messages.
  2. Hy Mercury, always great to to hear your comments as well as your detailed comprehensive charts, i had not seen the platinum chart for quite some time and noticed 2 days ago that it had prety much been on a bull run since february and one always questions as most, how long is this going to last, also noticed key fib levels as well as pivot point support and resistant points being approached, but having patience is key and waiting for those breakouts along with other trading tools can help aid your decision immensely.
  3. Platinum seemed to have found a bottom in february time at the 807 mark. However since then its rallied 20%, but we are now approaching august-october levels of 2015, where commodities started to sharply turn lower. Currently it has been channeling up without any significant breaks, but the momentum, RSI do seem to be raising a few eye brows here on the daily chart. The resistance/ monthly pivot level is also near the 50% fib level, where momentum change may become much more obvious. However on the weekly chart the momentum does seem strong. Not sure if many traders trade platinum, but in gene
  4. Hy Mercury, cheers for that info, i too could never understand why both pairs in reverse were on offer to trade. Just looked at your charts and see that your analysis was spot on the ball with the shorts. Always best to wait for price confirmation with these things, therefore most likely let this play out first.
  5. Since the 8th of april the pound has been rising well, a decent trend line, however just hoped around the 61.8% fib line and half way placement within the tram line. Momentum however if you look on the half hourly does appear to suggest possible weakness, of course a close beyond the trend line could suggest a turn lower. However, the bank of england tomorow could state something in regards to Brexit of which could either add fire to this momentum or add water. Always great to hear what traders may think of this.  
  6. There was an article posted by reuters at 1730 about saudi arabia, are hesitating with the oil freeze. Looking at the chart, similar to last night, it appears that the oil is settling for the moment and possibly we may cap, advances here. i did short last night with a hedge on this as oil is going to be quite volatile, therefore it is of the essence to be careful with sudden news announcements, Divergence of both RSI & MACD present, but caution as always. Quote from FT today: "Indeed, there is no guarantee of a deal at the weekend. Saudi Arabia has said that it will not participate in a
  7. Although this rally no doubt shocked everyone, there may, be something on this chart that might want us to keep a close eye on, although channeling up, we are a weekly pivot resistance approaching, and momentum also raising a few flags, expecially with the trend.  A few hours later on the chart.  
  8. it will be interesting to see if this rally continues, which their are no doubt some skepticism, as Mercury quite rightly pointed out, the more oil rallies, the more incentive their is for shale producers to switch on the taps again. This is why the opec meeting will by watched like a hawk by many. However if Saudi arabia wants to become a dominant player, they will have to seriously contemplate whether it is in their interest to take part in cutting oil production, when they unlike others can dig it out of the group for $2-4 and still make a profit, or risk loosing market dominance against ot
  9. There appears to be some very clear divergence, and the sellers dont seem to be strong enough to break down the current support. However, the BOJ appear to be only be able state some small talk, but no current intervention policy until other countries support their policy. Problem is like the x-bank of japan governor is that once the BOJ starts weakening their currency again, or try, other countries will keep on competing, not that its done the ECB any good either. But it will be interesting if we could break out and close on the next tram line, or as you say break the support, however the pic
  10. Absolutely Mercury, waiting for the perfect moment for a trade is many of the times not going to be exact, but i do find your tram lines quite effective of which i will definetly incoorporate within my strategies as they offer quite a good guide. It is always great to see how others employ different strategies.
  11. Very interesting analysis, there Mercury, i will have to personally brush up on eliot wave theory, however your charts are very well structured. I think in terms of being oversold, is that quite often within a change in trend we usually would see some more obsvious RSI, MACD or STOCH divergence, therefore probably stay quite cautious, but the scenario to go long will have to be closely watched as the momentum to the downside has been well intact. But always appreciate to hear your insights.
  12. USD JPY, as you can see from the 3H chart, has been selling very steeply now, however as you can see from the weekly chart pivot point, this could be where a potential bounce could come into play. However failing that and selling continues the 105 level looks like the next logical place to target of which i think you would expect the BOJ to act. If a bounce where to take place from the 3H chart pivot point (blue line) you would possibly be looking at the 50% FIB level and depending on momentum could possibly push through past 62% or fail at 50% and opportunity to go short.
  13. It appears USD JPY has dropped more that i thought and certanily what the BOJ had NOT hopped for, https://next.ft.com/content/69bcc44d-c996-327f-a068-bd029ea2f3f0 from this FT article it appears the BOJ are pulling their hair out over this.
  14.  The currency pair, was a few weeks appearing as if there was no stopping the bearsish downtrend, however around the 110 level the bulls appeared to be storming in, but since then struggled to reach the 114 level. It was clear that the uptrend momentum was not going to last much longer and a breakout appeared placing the bears in control again. Could we see a retest of the 110 level again? Be interesting to here other traders insight who are keeping an eye or trading this pair.
  15. Was also keeping a very close eye on this, but now yellen speech is over, 61% retracement has just been passed, it did appear that this could have been a good short opportunity, never mind, be interesting to see if this surpases 145 area again. 
  16. Has been very interesting following this currency pair. Appears to be a very clear correlation with oil and other commodities, which is sending this currency higher. However the australians want a weak currency to for their exports. Looking at this fundamentaly, it has not pushed through the 62% fibonnaci level, and is turning down. Could we see continuation of a bearish trend. MACD is turning red and STOCH now pointing lower. Be interesting to hear what other traders on here think of this. 
  17. Hy Mercury I too share the possible belief that USD JPY, could begin to break down to the down side. Although the momentum is still to the upside, it does appear weak. The FTSE100 indice does appear to be related, however no doubt its mostly due to market instability and therefore investors prefer to place their money in safe haven currencies like yen. The Bank of Japan howeve do seem to be keeping a good eye on the 110.67. level. I placed a long position funny enough the day the bank of england announced they would keep interests rates at the same rate, last thursday the 17th which caused
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